Gold may face a litle technical correction up side. But the general trend remains on the downside. Next June 5th ECB announcement with a "possible" negative interest rate decision of ECB may favor on a short term basis some private trader to invest on GOLD in order to protect their investment and money from desinflation, but, it would be illusive to think that on...
The future of USDJPY pair is in the hands of the FED. BoJ made its announcement in the past week and decided to put an end to the Quantitative easing. On a very long term basis, USD vs JPY fight should end with USD being on the winning side. The "Historical" trading range of USDJPY is between 99 and 104 when the market is not distorted by Central Banks action...
For a few weeks I was writting about the Trend of EUR and making some daily updates sinceApril on twitter and since I am a member of tradingview. Therefore to recall, since Early April , The first part of my trading plan was to enter a long on EURUSD from 1.37until 1.40. We didn't arrive exactly to 1.40 but 1.3990XXX And then, the move down with a...
With the clear statement of ECB President Dragji stipulating that ECB was carring about negative inflation and was seeking to reach its objective of 2% of inflation, June 4th may the date were ECB could announce a 0% rate policy or even a -0.25% which would mean decreasing by 0.50 base point the interest rate. Market have understood and bought the idea....
The round has been won by those who thought that ECB will intervene, and mechanically EUR loose ground against USD. ECB either intervene next June 4th by lowering interest rate or announcing a QE and EUR will continue to loose ground against USD and the phenomena would face an impetus when FED raised its interest rate, or if it keep its schedule with regard...
Where will the balance of power weight??? EUR or USD? Well, on this weekly chart, on can clearly see that we are at an oversold level, therefore, there might be a little technical correction to come. however, ECB has created a clear expectation in the market and everyone is expecting a clear announcement from the ECB President next 4th June. This could be a 0...
A short squeeze will be on the cards the closer we get to the ECB announcement and/or immediately after the announcement. I firmly believe you do not do extreme measures with stocks at all time highs. They will do enough not to be laughed at by the markets and this may include the negative interest rates but they will leave a lot of powder dry and i suspect a ...
Sometimes, we do forget to focus on the forest and therefore on on big picutre, because we are stuck focusing on one tree. On the big picture, we see 3 inputs, which are QE1+QE2+QE3 and there effect on the market, the relaunch of it, the ending period and the effect on EURUSD. With the end of QE3, baring in mind that FED President Yellen is still keeping the...
Central Banks became market makers and the markets direction is pending on CB's President Statement. Normal market is being made by investors, buyers sellers. Anyway, since the markets is analyzing the statement of European Central Bank officials, all the investors are almost convinced that ECB President will act in line with his statement early this month. On...
There is a clear fight between BULL and Bear on the EURUSD Pair. Ichimoku shows that it is 50%-50% with a little favor for the Bear if we do observe initial signals, such as the lagging span inside the cloud and oriented downward. If Bear wins the fight, it is to confirm that ECB is not bluffing, market beleieve in a reaction of Draghi on June 4th. If Bulls...
This morning 9 AM CET( central European Time) , the market went up and down and the race between bull and bear appears to end at that stage in favor of the BULL. The twist of the trend has started. In Early hours with a 1H and 2H Ichi, the signal were clear but was not confirmed at H4. Now there is a initial move on a 4H basis but it needs to be confirmed and...
In my view, political agenda , economic agenda and the behaviour of EURO against USD will give the direction and the impetus for USDJPY. On a purely mechanical point of view, BoJ is still printing a huge amount of Yen comparing to the calendar of FED where Yellen is still sticking to the tapering. On the Other hand, ECB President Draghi, will make his statement...
With all the talk of a possible rate cut in June, EURUSD technicals paint a different picture. What would make the EURUSD to rally to 1.4 - 1.41 levels? Better than expected EMU data or a weaker USD or ECB's actions not convincing enough for the markets? Only time will tell. Regardless of what the media says, USD fundamentals weren't that impressive post Winter....
Friends, Recently, the EZ fundamentals have been weighed down by Europe's second largest economy, when today France posted economic data bringing deflationary pressures to the forefront. What's worth reframing here, is that this week's significant decline in the EURUSD Forex leader occurred in spite of Germany's positive data - First question that comes to mind...
EURUSD is a very mechanical pair, reacting to macroeconomic situation and sharp on political statement. Baring in mind the situation of indicators and the picture, we may be on the eve of a formation of a double bottom. Political situation in Europe, recent statements of ECB President Draghi , statements that had an effect on the market but on a long run, no one...
I stumbled upon EURNOK over some chance discussions with some members here couple of weeks ago. I took on a short position back then and ever since I kept adding to my positions. This pair also gives +ve rollovers for shorts. This is the weekly chart, which validates the short positions. A descending triangle and RSI divergence on the weekly charts. I don't...
Friends, TRADE PROFILE: Only three days ago, I took the opportunity of a long entry based on a daily chart which confirmed support near the 87.350 level. A layered analysis comprising my prop predictive analysis and forecasting favored a bull directional bias with a series of bullish targets of moderate-probability quality. Despite being a technical analyst, I...
Friends, As a new week opens, a bird's eye view of the Forex market might be best appreciated if taken on the back of the US Dollar Index (DXY). SOME FUNDAMENTAL POINTS AND OPINION: At this point, fundamentals are expecting to carry the greenback upwards, on the general assumption that the Fed will continue to taper. We also discussed earlier weaknesses in...