FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Where will the balance of power weight??? EUR or USD?
Well, on this weekly chart, on can clearly see that we are at an oversold level, therefore, there might be a little technical correction to come.
however, ECB has created a clear expectation in the market and everyone is expecting a clear announcement from the ECB President next 4th June.
This could be a 0 interest rate for example, even a decrease by 0.50 base point which means negative interest rate, or an ABS with a clar structure, an amount and a date of release. If that is the case, after the technical upward correction, EUR would leave some ground against the USD. IF not, a clear jump toward 1.395 and if not above.
ECB may think that basic announcements and intention made early May could be enough to strenghten their policy and aim to put an end to the increase of power of EUR against USD.
However, FEd made also some statement with regard the possible increase of their interest rate but QE3 is countinuing until October 14 at least and the tappering program is just a phase out. In other word, Fed Reserve is still printing money.
SO if markets expectation are not met by ECB, I am affraid to see EUR jumping high up, and this time a little bit above 1.405 pushing the ECB board to intervene directly on the market.
oversold with huge bullish divergence :)
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