TraderFlow_TonyD

05:24

TraderFlow_TonyD

Quick Chat about the markets ahead of NFP and what i am watching.

02:46

TraderFlow_TonyD

Quick preview of tonight's NFP, watching US 2 year yield at the key 5.0% and the reaction to US jobs later tonight. A weak print opens up larger moves and we look at AUD/USD longs in that result.

02:21

TraderFlow_TonyD

Looking at climatic reversals in EUR/USD and USD/JPY, if US 2 years roll down then markets caught long USD here into a debt deal

TraderFlow_TonyD

Risk on rally as Oil dips are bought and stocks push new highs in US session overnight. GBP under pressure since monday i see risk reward in a tactical long into the weekend. Can close out before weekend polling risk but without the brexit we would be 1.50 and rallying on a day like today. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF both look set for rally as well mitigating the downside...

TraderFlow_TonyD

Stops at 1.0800 cleared even in a pro Euro risk off enviroment overnight has set up a good risk reward for the rest of this week. USD selling from UJ liquidation and the unwinding hedges of the long DAX trades should support if Risk remains off.

TraderFlow_TonyD

NZD/USD break 0.6900 and moves towards 0.7200 we will see AUD/NZD back towards 1.0300. I believe this pathway offers very good risk reward for AUD/NZD longs medium term with range trading and RBNZ jawbowning likely.

TraderFlow_TonyD

AUD/NZD is gathering attention as the long term support at 1.0500 is tested and we currently are trading below at 1.0460. These levels are very dangerous for shorts as the slightest reason to cover will have sharp moves higher. The trend however is still down and we currently dont have any triggers to start the move higher. In the New Year i expect such triggers...

TraderFlow_TonyD

Looking for a short term top in EUR/JPY and sharp pullback to 141.20 still above the close of last week 140.70. Main reasons are the overbought short term technicals and the catalysts to take profit from the BOJ minutes where 5-4 vote may have some serious dissent and then the ECB later today where Corporate bond buying discussions can lead to further sharp EURO...

TraderFlow_TonyD

Price Action post NFP suggest the USD/JPY still has some topside catch up to play with the US 10 yr Treasury Yield and the gaining USD Dollar Index. With Stocks still strong and carry trade back on the cards, the USD/JPY should do well from AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY buying. EUR/USD selling is still a real possibility with the USD strength from this also supporting. A...

TraderFlow_TonyD

A short squeeze will be on the cards the closer we get to the ECB announcement and/or immediately after the announcement. I firmly believe you do not do extreme measures with stocks at all time highs. They will do enough not to be laughed at by the markets and this may include the negative interest rates but they will leave a lot of powder dry and i suspect a ...

TraderFlow_TonyD

Looking for a move above 1.4000 in coming months as the Jawboning of the ECB become less effective and the USD slow burn continues. Expect this to continue as current account remains positive in Eurozone. Dangers to this forecast include -- 1) May stock Correction which could lead to an EUR/JPY correction. 2) Current account surplus falls as Spanish/Italy/greek...

TraderFlow_TonyD

Entering long USD/JPY as Dollar weakness once again caps the topside due to FED Taper delays and Nikkei losses on the 25th of October. The downside minor support as been tested and whilst we are below the 200 DMA i believe the USD weakness is near the end and that a rally into the new year a natural move especially if any US data surprises or EUR/USD reverses from...

TraderFlow_TonyD

Looking to long EUR/AUD 1.4320 stop 1.4210 TP 1.4530 as the long term uptrend resumes

TraderFlow_TonyD

Not exactly a FOMC minutes play but more of a play on the correction of the Nikkei being nearly over and the delayed reaction of the recent rally in the US Treasury Yields coming into play on the USD/JPY as risk aversion from the recent stock market weakness subsides. The recent USD/JPY correlations shows the Nikkei is the Prime mover so tomorrow :- 1) If the...

TraderFlow_TonyD

Long at the big figure at 0.9200, target 0.9390 and stop tight at 0.9170. Trade is opportunistic on the price and the general timing of USD strength after weeks of USD weakness. EUR/USD is showing some signs of stalling near 1.3400 but regardless the EUR/CHF is showing some bullish signals and finding support under 1.2300 for a move back to 1.2500. US Data...

TraderFlow_TonyD

Short USD/JPY after NFP for break of Y97.50, Failure at Y100 will attract fresh selling with a weak USD post soft NFP numbers in July. Big Stops under the Y97.50 should attract short term attention with a risk of bigger pullback on the cards if support is not found at Y97 our Take Profit Target. Longer term we still expect upside but August is traditionally...

TraderFlow_TonyD

Long with stop under recent low. The Nikkei volatility has reduced in the recent days so we have the opportunity to resume the longer term uptrend. Traders have been waiting for the Base and the reduction of Volatility before entering and the charts are looking much more stable now. Good Risk Reward As well

TraderFlow_TonyD

Long for 100+ pip Bounce Daily RSI at 17. USD Strength and AUD selling overdone. While the trend is new the speed is too quick with a very rare RSI on daily and rising RSI on 4 Hour. Orders at 0.9750 should hold on Friday 17th May. Bernanke Speech over the coming weekend may adjust the markets expectations of tapering of QE3. Great Risk Reward at these levels!