The North Korean leader once again decided to remind of his military achievements to international colleagues, launching a medium-range ballistic missile on Tuesday night. Flying over the Japanese sky the projectile fell into the Pacific Ocean at 760 miles from the island of Hokkaido. Solo pursuit of their nuclear ambitions, despite the sanctions of the UN...
The Fed and ECB chiefs have kept their promise not to touch on the monetary policy issues in Jackson Hole, but Janet Yellen has suddenly succeeded more in that. The dollar lost ground on Friday after the release of text version of Yellen speech which was generally useless for investors. The absence of any clues was a signal for the reduction of dollar positions...
Before the ECB's September meeting, each word uttered by the ECB's Mario Draghi could provoke market swings. Its because the expectations for the fate of QE have already accumulated a critical mass, which simply needs a way out. In light of the announcement that the speech of the head of the ECB in Jackson Hole will ignore monetary policy, the Draghi's speech in...
EUR$ LONG: 1. Daily support base formed ABOVE previous channel highs at 1.17 2. Fundamentally driven breakout on Friday (draghi vs yellen sentiment) should provide continued bullish EUR within the supply/demand complex. 3. Broadly eurozone crisis discounting contoinues to be faded out of the market. I expect RM names to begin pricing the ECB/FED convergence...
The German economy has revealed signs of slowdown, despite the widespread economic pickup in the euro area and the concomitant strengthening of the euro. A number of data released on Friday pointed to a slowdown in exports and imports in the second quarter. Investment optimism also declined, probably due to the strengthening of the euro, overshadowing the...
We have a lot of EUR news due out tomorrow together with a speech from Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank. His comments alone will move the market and we are hoping for an alignment with the PMI data due out later on in the morning. This will give us a great trading opportunity on the EUR throughout the rest of the week. We are planning a...
US joint military exercises in South Korea which risked to run across ultimately response from North Korean leader, has been set off. It may be a new reserve for exacerbation of the geopolitical situation on Korean peninsula. The market so far does not lend itself to provocations, the VIX index is in negative territory, gold is showing sluggish attempts to return...
Macro wise, we have quite a number of risk events for the Euro this week. Technical wise, we are currently seeing a corrective move on both Daily and 4-hourly timeframe. As long as price continue to develop corrective lower towards 1.1369 - 1.1575 area, we are still expecting one more move to the upside once this corrective move is completed.
The verbal intervention of San Francisco FRB head John Williams has offset dovish July Fed Minutes, underpinning dollar growth. The dollar went on the offensive after the policymaker’s statement that the Fed is halfway to normalizing rates and additional stimulus should be gradually "taken out of the game." This is the second positive assessment of the economic...
According to investors, a clear recovery of the eurozone economy has long convinced them that it's time to begin to tighten the valve on the pipe through which the ECB pumps the economy with cheap money. The growth of the euro in this case began to be reflected in a fairly one-sided analysis by investors of Mario Draghi's speeches, a partial search for hints on...
Stock markets develop a bullish momentum received on Monday amid a suspension of threat exchange between North Korea and the US, but to say that the degree of tension has dropped to an insignificant level is too early to say. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un decided to take a break from the escalation of the conflict, postponing the launch of the missiles, but at...
World markets kicked off the week with relief, as the degree of tension on the Korean peninsula eased after statements by high-ranking US military officials that a nuclear war with North Korea is not foreseen in the short term. This also reduced the likelihood of the exchange of missile strikes, the main potential cause of the escalation of the military conflict,...
From my humble view, there is still room to 1.21 (R2 Yearly Pivot). The market will test the ECB at each meetings, but in the end the risk is on the downside to pullback on 1.13 (R1 Yearly Pivot)...
First of all, short overview on consumer prices in the US. The figures on producer prices, wholesale inventories released this week, clearly indicated a slowdown in consumer demand in the US, as we discussed in yesterday's note. July inflation showed that our fears were justified. The monthly change was 0.1%, with a forecast of 0.2%, which, with the clouds...
July US labor market update was an excellent reason to induce a correction on the dollar, suppressing upside momentum on EURUSD. Bringing some psychological relief to greenback bidders, the report however left the fundamental picture relatively untouched, since the Phillips curve in the American economy, as the data for the second quarter showed, is far from the...
EURUSD has a "fair value" of around 1.36 according to OCED (data.oecd.org) It was oscillating around that area for a while until a period of divergent monetary policy - the fed stopping their money printing presses and the ECB starting theirs. This brought the Euro to almost parity. But now we are entering a period where both central banks are reducing their QE...
The Aussie has been rallying strongly since the last RBA Rate Statement, and coupled with the weakness on the US Dollar, the AUDUSD has gained more than 6% in the last 30 days. As often stated in the RBA Rate Statement, rising Aussie will complicate the economic transition. Given the RBA is meeting this week, will they send out a dovish tone to push the Aussie...
The oil market nudged up in Asian session extending gains to London trading, as Saudi Arabia's promise to cut exports by 1M barrels provides significant sentiment boost, trying to make out the way to the top under the yoke of growing supplies of American producers. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia attempts to exercise complex approach to show traders that supplies are...