I’ll be looking out for tomorrow’s BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and Outlook Report. Expectation in this scenario is for the BoJ to maintain their current stance, as the economy progresses along as planned. Pay attention to the tone of the statement, as discussions on the timing and scale of policy normalizations take place. In my opinion, I anticipate the...
One of the economic releases of the day was the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories which helps measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The way it works is that the amount of inventories helps influence the price petroleum products which can have an encounter with the inflation rates. Traders have got two things which...
Hi Traders, We continue to monitor EURO/USD for a breakout. As you can see price has not been able to settle above the key resistance line (Blue) however price has advanced in an upward direction finding support on the lower trend line (green). We feel a catalyst is required for price to breakout and we have 3 opportunities this week for price to breakout....
Hello Traders, I have been fiddling with the idea of applying the same model used to predict Financial Markets to Economic Data.This is my first attempt at applying the model to such data publicly. Consider this post an experiment. Taking into consideration some fundamentals (and a little bit of rationalizing); Since the auto industry bail outs of 2008-2009...
I can see a repetition of the same pattern that occurred in November, with a trend reversal (Price diverges from upper BB) after a rapid rally. Furthermore, the trend reversal occurred at a consolidated resistance point 2015. Finally the stoch indicator hints to a downtrend as well as the a bearish dominance that the negative slope of the balance of power...
Economic data will accelerate the trend or change the trend, so do not bet on the data, unless you have a large floating profit
Political pressure no longer exists. JPY plunge a main priority for Abe now.
Gold has a historic relevance as being a price appreciator in times of volatility, geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty. Current day presents a plethora of risks both economic and political; from emerging market credit risk through to south china sea politics. Oil, like Gold has benefitted from a fall in the USD which has lead to some price recovery,...
With all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :) With the history of miners leading the commodity in moves, I'm expecting gold to make a move higher (see GDX charts): - We again have the bull flag being made, with any bearish attempt to...
With all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :) - Just as the GDX, we have a beautiful parabola, followed by an attempt to go to 1180, which was rejected by the bulls - This creates the bull flag / pennant that was see now, which was...
As we are on the brink of the next cyclical recession food security has become more of a concern than ever. One can see the inverse correlation that rice has exhibited over the last 15 years being an extremely inelastic good as it is the most consumed grain in the world. In the last 14 years the value of this commodity future has gone up over 250% versus the most...
That is where I think we are now. We`re in a quite similar fractal of the "small" rally of 2012. As you might remember, that rally took place a few months before the halving, after a long bearmarket, a situation strangely similar to where we are now. My prediction: I think we´ll slowly rise back to 450, build a plateau at 450-500 and stay there stable for a few...
So the disappointing Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) print earlier has sent the USDCAD hurtling towards the psychological price of $1.40 which hasn’t been broken since August 2003! In addition to this, it’s no secret that the tumbling oil price has been a contributory factor to CAD weakness. Due to the strength of the resistance, I would expect a pull back to...
Inventories to Sales Ratio has been rapidly ascending recently above its usual levels of 1.3. It means that Inventories have been actually growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months! Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy. If the ratio continues to ascend at the current...
The Economic recovery in the west is important especially with weakening demand in Europe and a fragile US recovery dependent on consumer spending and business confidence. Oil at $40 a barrel will be a welcome relief, even $30 a barrel is not unreasonable seeing in 2002 that was where Oil sat. Frankly $100 a barrel was too much.