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Economic Cycles

$BTC 4-Year Cycle Is NOT Dead According to $QQQ $SPXIt’s really weird cause everyone keeps telling me the ₿itcoin 4-year cycle is dead yet Nasdaq and S&P 500 follow nearly the exact same pattern with cycle lows 🤓 It’s almost as-if monetary and fiscal policy creates this boom and bust cycle every 4-years 🤔 Question for the “this time is different people”…. Will NASDAQ:QQQ and SP:SPX not have similar bear markets as we’ve seen in the past along with CRYPTOCAP:BTC ?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by jonnieking
BTCUSDT (30M) – Trading Between Key Resistance & DemandBINANCE:BTCUSDT Structure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones BTC is ranging between 109,480 short-term resistance 🔴 and 107,400 demand zone 🟢. Macro resistance remains at 113,600, while 111,500 is the key breakout confirmation level for bulls to regain momentum. Until broken, the market leans bearish with possible retests of lower zones. Market Overview BTC is currently consolidating under the bearish trendline after rejecting near 109,600. Price structure is showing weakness, but buyers are still defending the 107,400–107,600 demand area. Sentiment remains cautious with rejection risk at resistance levels unless bulls manage to reclaim 111,500 and sustain higher. Key Scenarios ✅ Bullish Case 🚀 → Breakout above 111,500 opens upside. 🎯 Target 1: 112,000 🎯 Target 2: 113,600 ❌ Bearish Case 📉 → Rejection from 109,480–109,600 leads to downside. 🎯 Target 1: 108,200 🎯 Target 2: 107,400 Current Levels to Watch Resistance 🔴: 109,480 → 111,500 → 113,600 Support 🟢: 108,200 → 107,400 ⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Short
by PEAKALPHAFXMARKETS
Fib levels can be easy to draw but when do they matter most?So I have used Fibonacci extensions and retracement along with time based extensions to show how one can determine not only where and what levels are significant but Also, when they should be paying closer attention, that is the point of these lines along the vertical axis because one cannot simply watch the chart all the time I like to use FaceTime based Fibonacci extensions when I have observed a large move and participated in it and I’m trying to figure out a good way to move forward afterwards. I will often settle Alerts to know when price is touched the 2.8 or the 38 line so that I can check on the chart and see where things are at. It’s helped tremendously with timing, especially if you pay attention to volatility with this.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by dcpersonal_1101
High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $7.54 (Primarily September)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll lose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor. Targets: $8.50 (+12.7%) $9.50 (+26.0%) $10.50 (+39.3%, if a market scare...)
AMEX:HIBSLong
by WorthlessViews
DXY | Major Cycle Peak – Is the Dollar Losing Its Grip?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be following a well-defined historical cycle, marking major peaks approximately every 15–20 years. If history repeats, the 2022 peak near 114 could signal the beginning of a multi-year dollar decline, impacting global markets, commodities, and currency pairs like EUR/USD. Historical Peaks & Reversals Examining past DXY cycles, we see: 969 Peak (~120): Followed by a prolonged decline into the 1970s. 1985 Peak (~165): Marked by the Plaza Accord, triggering a sharp dollar downtrend. 2001 Peak (~120): Led to a multi-year decline as the Fed shifted policies. 2022 Peak (~114): The most recent high—could it mark the next major reversal? Each peak historically aligns with aggressive Fed tightening cycles, followed by a shift towards easing policies, leading to a weaker dollar. With U.S. interest rates expected to plateau or decline, this pattern suggests a potential long-term bearish trend for the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar Bullish for EUR/USD – A declining DXY typically strengthens the euro. Boost for Commodities – Gold, oil, and other dollar-denominated assets could rally. Stronger Emerging Markets – A softer dollar eases financial conditions globally. With DXY showing signs of a historical cycle peak, investors and traders should watch for confirmation of a multi-year downtrend, potentially reshaping global markets.
TVC:DXYShort
by adiyatcoto
Aug 29, 2025 - BTCUSDT 4H Chart Analysis The daily support at 109,820 and the descending trendline on the 4H timeframe are key levels to watch. Bitcoin’s reaction to these zones will be crucial. A breakdown below this support could signal further downside, which seems more likely considering the previous bearish momentum. However, since Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a trend reversal on the daily timeframe and larger cycles, I prefer not to enter short positions at this stage. On the other hand, in the mid-cycle, a strong bearish trend is already in place, which means that a trendline breakout alone would not be a reliable confirmation of a reversal. For that reason, I don’t expect to take any position on Bitcoin today. Still, given the bullish leg in Bitcoin dominance, the situation could be different for some altcoins. --- 📌 Bullish Scenario Confirmation For me to consider a bullish reversal, the following conditions are required: 1. Price must not form a lower low below 109,820, and instead bounce from the current area. 2. After breaking the trendline, Bitcoin must establish higher lows (at least on the 1H timeframe) and also break above the 113,150 resistance. 3. During this move, rising volume is needed as confirmation of the reversal. In the best-case scenario, we could see these developments play out by Sunday.
by Utopia-2025
5
Valtrix Crypto Strategy Future of Crypto GainsCryptocurrencies have long since moved beyond being purely speculative instruments. Today, they represent a full-fledged asset class integrated into global investment strategies. Starting in 2025, a new phase begins: not just price growth, but the emergence of long-term trends that will determine where, how, and how much investors will earn over the next five years. Valtrix Group experts share their vision of what the crypto market will look like through 2030, which areas will generate the highest returns, and how Valtrix Group investors are already making money by using the future in the present. Where the Crypto Market Stands Today In 2025: Market capitalization exceeds $4.7 trillion Over 600 million crypto wallet users BTC, ETH, and SOL remain leaders, but L2 protocols, DePIN projects, and AI tokens show rapid growth Crypto is no longer a fringe asset. Institutional funds, pension capital, and major corporations actively integrate it into their portfolios. Trends Through 2030: Where the Market is Headed Dominance of Ethereum and Layer-2 Solutions Ethereum will evolve into the financial layer of Web3. L2 protocols (Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync) will provide scalability. Investors in the ETH ecosystem will gain access to sustainable growth. Infrastructure Tokens and Decentralized Networks DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) is one of the key trends. Projects like Helium, Render, and Akash deliver real returns at the intersection of blockchain and the physical world. Asset Tokenization By 2030, widespread tokenization will include: Real estate Stocks and bonds Gold and commodities This will create a new class of investable tokens — liquid and accessible 24/7. Long-Term Staking and DeFi 2.0 The emergence of sustainable protocols with real yields, risk management, and transparent economics will attract millions of investors. Regulation Without Destruction Global regulators will create clear frameworks, allowing crypto to integrate into traditional financial models. How Valtrix Group Investors Profit from These Trends Long-Term Portfolios (2025–2030) Balanced allocation: 35% — BTC and ETH 25% — L2 protocols (ARB, OP, zkSync) 20% — Infrastructure tokens (RNDR, HNT, AKT) 10% — Stablecoins in DeFi 10% — Cash for averaging during market corrections Access to Early-Stage Investments Valtrix Group gives clients access to pre-listing tokens (seed rounds, private sales). Returns over the last 12 months: from +180% to +520%. Intelligent Automation The Valtrix platform analyzes trends, adapts strategies, and reallocates assets across protocols — all without manual client intervention. Real Investor Cases from Valtrix Group Case 1: Investor with a 5-Year Horizon Invested: $50,000 Portfolio focused on L2, DeFi, and tokenization 2025 return: +72%, goal: 3x by 2030 Case 2: Participation in Private Sale of an AI Infrastructure Token Invested: $15,000 Return in 6 months: $51,000 Growth: +240% Client comment: “Valtrix gave me access to a deal I would never have found on my own — the results speak for themselves.” Valtrix Group Strategy Principles for the Next 5 Years Market Foresight We analyze technology and investment trends before they go mainstream. Focus on Infrastructure Not memes, but the projects building the foundation of Web3, AI, and the decentralized internet. Capital Protection Up to 15% of every portfolio is held in low-volatility, fixed-income assets. Education and Support Every client receives access to analytics, clear explanations, and a dedicated personal manager. Why Investors Choose Valtrix Group Strategies from 1 to 10 years Access to exclusive token sales and DeFi tools Algorithmic portfolio management Asset protection and drawdown control Personalized service, 24/7 support Conclusion The future of cryptocurrencies has already arrived — and it belongs to those who understand the trends and act ahead of the curve. By 2030, we’ll witness a transformation of finance, where crypto becomes a routine part of the investment world. Valtrix Group investors earn because they don’t just buy tokens — they invest in the technologies, economy, and infrastructure of the future — with intelligence, precision, and the support of a strong team.
IG:CRYPTOB10
by CryptoLifeone
BTC cycle analysis 📊 **BTC Cycle Analysis (Aug 2025)** 🔎 **Observations from the chart** * **Blue arcs (Cycle Projection):** Indicate potential cycle lows. Each cycle spans roughly **4–5 months**. * **Yellow overlay (Historical Pattern):** Previous price behavior mapped onto the current cycle, showing a similar rhythm. * **Rising channel (Red lines):** BTC remains in a long-term uptrend channel, but is currently pulling back toward the lower boundary. * **White arrow (Projection):** Price could correct down to the **\$95K–\$100K** zone, which aligns with both the MA and channel support. 🌀 **Cycle Outlook** * BTC is now in the **mid-to-late stage of the current cycle**. The next cycle low is projected around **Oct–Nov 2025**. * Historically, each cycle showed **strong rallies followed by deep corrections**, suggesting this cycle may also experience a notable pullback. * Key supports: **\$95K** and **\$85K** (if the channel breaks). 📈 **Strategy Based on Cycle Analysis** * **Short-term traders:** Be cautious of further downside pressure until the cycle bottom forms. Attractive entry zones = near **\$95K** or, if broken, **\$85K**. * **Medium/long-term investors:** Use upcoming cycle lows as **accumulation points (DCA)**. As long as price holds within the channel, the broader trend remains bullish. * **Risk signal:** A confirmed **daily close below \$85K** could invalidate the bullish cycle structure and shift outlook to a **longer correction phase**.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Teerasak_Tanavarakul
EURUSD - 25Aug to 29AugFirst Of All , Lets Check the Economic Calander : (remember , price is moving because of events , and the movements are Algorithms) MONDAY: New Home Sales (MID-Impact) , We Allways Wait On modays. TUESDAY : Core Durable Goods Orders (MID-Impact) , we expect that tuesday will continue downtrend and price will reach atlease 1.16 WEDNESDAY : No News , we allways wait these kind of days to see price reaction . we expect wednesday to have Low volatility , I personaly expect that wednesday we will sweep fridays Low and start a reveral for thursday and friday THURSDAY & FRIDAY : As we have Perlim GDP(High-Impact) at thursday, which is after No news day and CORE PCE (high-impact) for Friday , We expect that thursday and friday will move against tuesday and monday . Main Area of volatility has been shown at Picture . EU Will complete the Market Maker Sell Model and at wednesday EU will Consolidate and then reverse , and finally at thursday and friday price will move higher to take the External Range Liquidity at daily chart. I hope It helps you , Have a nice trading Week !! :)
by The_Market_Profile_Trader
1
▒₿▒ Distribution Top - Anatomy of a Bitcoin Cycle Top ▒₿▒COINBASE:BTCUSD I've identified key price action indications that we have "topped" with an ATH for this Bull Market Cycle. There is a much deeper analysis that needs to be done here. While this price action is the first major clue, to confirm a true distribution top, we'll also need to analyze volume profiles for institutional selling, spot bearish divergences in key momentum oscillators, and watch on-chain metrics for any signs of whale or miner selling pressure. Every Bitcoin cycle has a story, and the final chapter is always the most dramatic. I've been analyzing the price action at every major cycle peak, and there's a recurring pattern that acts like a final warning before the curtain falls. It’s not the explosive top itself, but the messy, indecisive period that follows: the Distribution Top . This isn't just a pattern; it's the visual footprint of a massive transfer of wealth. It’s the moment when the cycle's early investors (smart money) begin to distribute their holdings to the late, euphoric buyers. Look at the price action from the November 2021 ATH top. After the euphoric peak, the clean, powerful uptrend dies. It's replaced by a volatile, sideways "wiggle." The Heikin Ashi candles lose their bodies, showing long wicks on both sides. This is the signature of market conflict and exhaustion. Cycle Tops vs. Local Highs: A Crucial Distinction It's important to understand that this "wiggle" is unique to major, euphoric ATH cycle tops. Other tops, like the one from August 2021 shown below, have a much different character. Notice how the rejection is sharper, faster, and lacks the prolonged, grinding "wiggle." This is often a rejection from a known resistance level, not the slow, painful end of cycle-wide euphoria. The "Distribution Top" is a process. It’s designed to churn, create confusion, and trap breakout traders before the real move down begins. It’s the market grinding at the highs, absorbing the last wave of FOMO. We saw this exact anatomy play out in the April 2021 top as well. The Key Takeaway for Bitcoin Investors: Recognizing this specific pattern is crucial for capital preservation. When you see this shift from clean momentum to choppy, indecisive grinding near an all-time high , it's a signal that the market character has changed. The risk is no longer to the upside; it's to the downside. While this price action is the first major clue, to confirm a true distribution top, we'll also need to analyze key trend lines, candlestick patterns, seasonality, volume profiles for institutional selling, and watch on-chain metrics for any signs of whale or miner selling pressure. Now, take a look at the most recent price action. We are seeing the early stages of this very same pattern developing after a new high. The question every Bitcoin holder should be asking is: Is this history rhyming once again? As I mentioned at the start of this post, there are much more metrics to analyze here, so I'll be updating this post with further findings. DISCLAIMER I AM NOT A FINACIAL ADVISOR, NOR AM I YOURS. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. MEARLY DOODLINGS ON A MATHMATICALLY DRIVEN GRAPHICAL INTERFACE, TRACKING AN INVISIBLE 256BIT MILITARY-GRADE ENCRYPTED ASSET. . . FOR ENTERTAINMENT/AMUSEMENT PUROSES ONLY. ENJOY! Looking to hear your thoughts on this @TradingView @Profit_Through_Patience @David_Perk @ProjectSyndicate @Xanrox_ @HAMED_AZ @melikatrader94
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CRYPTIK1
15