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Economic Cycles

BTC Rotations Aren’t What They Used to Be — Trojan Cycle This chart uses the Trojan Cycle: Dip & Profit Hunter tool to evaluate recent BTC price action in relation to structural flow dynamics — specifically price and volume behavior through a statistical lens. The tool is part of a broader effort to monitor the evolving nature of capital rotation in crypto — one that considers how institutional infrastructure, regulatory filters, and synthetic signals may be altering traditional cycle behavior. 🧠 What This Tool Is Designed to Do Rather than issuing classic buy/sell signals, the tool evaluates where we are in the broader capital flow rotation by analyzing: Z-Scores of price and volume (how far each has deviated from their historical norm) Percentile ranks (where current values fall relative to past distributions) Price vs. Volume momentum divergence A contextual output based on combinations of these metrics The aim is to offer a clearer view into whether a move is structurally supported or potentially hollow . 🔍 Live Signal Example (as shown on chart) Metric Value Z-Score (Price) +0.65 (mild extension) Z-Score (Volume) -1.27 (subdued flow) Percentile (Price) 64% Percentile (Volume) 2% (extremely low) Combined Context 📉 Price leading — flow lagging, be cautious Structural Signal 🟣 No high-probability setup 🗣 Interpretation (not prediction): While BTC has advanced in price, this configuration suggests a lack of supporting volume — at least from the perspective of the current model. In the context of a maturing, compliance-filtered market structure, these kinds of setups may align with the idea of synthetic rotations: price expansion without true structural inflow. 📘 Why This Matters The goal isn’t to call tops or bottoms — it’s to better understand the character of a move . This tool helps frame whether a move may represent: 📥 Accumulation 🔴 Distribution 🚨 Euphoric extension 🧨 Synthetic narrative trap …or simply neutral structure , as in the current case. 🔎 Interested in the Thesis Behind This? This tool is part of a broader analytical framework outlined in the Trojan Cycle and Synthetic Rotation theses. To explore those ideas further, including full macro breakdowns and structural flow models, please visit the published charts for RWCS_LTD on TradingView. 📊 How I Use This Personally I avoid adding risk when signals show price is leading while volume lags. I scale in during “confluent buy” or “value + flow” setups. I pair this with BTC.D, ETH/BTC, and TOTALES3/ETH to track relative strength and phase rotation. 💭 Final Thought Whether this tool confirms your existing thesis — or challenges it — the intent is to help develop structure-informed judgment in a rapidly evolving market.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by RWCS_LTD
US Crude oil Spotits neo wave alternative count for wave 1 of wave C in lower degree and it wave C of Wave 2 or Wave A let see. Earlier posted little different wave 1 count and wave 2 count for wave C let see which one fit as in progress . In both case near $67 is invalidation point. Also bearish gartley and other harmonic pattern developed which I shown in charts in previous post. I am not SEBI registered analyst and its not buy , sell and hold recommendation and having position in it in mcx.
CFI:WTI
by ManishDamani663ab2f2a8cf4dde
$NIO You're updated roadmap for $NIOcopy & paste from twitter & stocktwits: We have to see how it develops, but expecting to see an expanded flat with a 5 wave impulse to complete this sideways correction that started April 15, 2024 before we make the final move down to complete the macro structure and unfortunately filling gaps below....cont The TVC:HSI & NYSE:BABA appear like they will make new lows over the next 24 mo. paying closer attention when new lows are made on TVC:HSI and around 12k. I thought we found the bottom going into March/April last year but wrong as this developed into a corrective flat for NYSE:NIO lastly the volume profile isn't capturing the correct data - if we view only $66.99 to the current low, there is a massive volume gap at the ~0.382 fib correcting wave W (the 5-3-5 structure) at $11.02 which is the highest tgt for this bounce & HSI finishing correction from 2007
NYSE:NIOLong
by Drunkmonk
2
**Setup Narrative (educational)**1. **Context Prep:** We tagged the 12 AM bias—watching for a liquidity sweep into London (2–5 AM). Right on cue, the price trapped early movers. 2. **Price Reaction:** That trap sets the stage—when New York opens, price drives the opposite direction. 3. **Sniper Lesson:** Don’t react. Anticipate. Use bias, structure, and frames to position ahead of the move—and let the market run into your trigger. This is *teaching, not calling*. Learn how to align bias + price structure in real time.
CME:6E1!
by Master-Jedi-Trader
BTC Swing Points (Linear Scale) ISTRUCTURAL AWARENESS This analysis seeks to provide structural insights by identifying key levels and understanding historical price patterns to anticipate the limits potential future scale of price movements. Indicators in use: I'd start with retrieving HH LH HL LL points by script I've designed based on Pivot Points to be as aware as possible of key levels of the historic structure: Adding altered Zig Zag that shows only percentage change of the swings. This would be another layer of the historic pattern capture: BOTTOMS: Wave analysis from '22 - '24 Logarithmic Trendline: It looks like a curve on linear scale, which we will use to link the composite but significant lows and extend it to the right. This gives a sense of a low levels which we assume would be hard to break anytime soon because of the price is a range away: Breaking below and staying under that level for more than a few bars would signal a bearish trend, depending on emerging patterns at smaller scales as price nears the curve. Since a Double Top pattern could develop, an additional line curve aligned with the HL and passing through the next bottom (black dashed curve) is necessary. If price breaches the main curve’s orange dotted line, it may descend toward the secondary curve, a significant lower boundary derived from historical curvature. A break below this level would require an even stronger bearish effort to actually keep it below because of high volatility and existing frequency of reversals. Adding short-term trendlines which would be easier to break (Red and dark orange dotted continuation of the lines) TOPS: To anticipate how high it can grow, we'll connect the extreme tops as well. 2021 ATH ➡︎ 2024 ATH 2021 TOPS 2017 ATH ➡︎ 2021 1st TOP Price breaking above "2017 ATH ➡︎ 2021 1st TOP" is a sign to switch to log scale where identical distance resembles identical % change to capture a bigger scale move relative to the structure.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
2
Temporal Aspect of FractalityIn this publication, I would like to bring some clarity to the series of my unconventional analysis. At this stage of my research I have no doubt that market's natural growth patterns can be defined by historic range and power exponents of Phi. Essentially, it's just two overall fib channels that cover structural boundaries of bullruns from ATH to new ATH mapped to bottom as 3rd coordinate. When we have angle of fibs derived from chronological highs, the ratios would cover the levels of oscillation from price scale perspective. Whereas the temporal aspect of fractality, requires looking for frequency of reversals in price dynamics. So instead of connecting pivots of same classification, we interconnect opposite points of extremes in order to tune fib direction to the angle of trend and map 3 coordinate to next swing point. This way the spacings that come with the fib proportions would indicate rhythm of trend occurrence. The primary objective of this publication is to expose traders to the forces underlying market behavior. Specifically for illustrating temporal rhythms, the end result seen in interactive chart looks like a more simplified version of works i've shared earlier.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
7
Is ALT-season coming soon?Bitcoin’s supply schedule is punctuated by four-year “ halvings ,” where miner issuance is cut in half. Historically, the post‑halving window has coincided with the strongest phase of the cycle as tightening new supply meets rising demand. Liquidity first concentrates in Bitcoin, pushing dominance higher and volatility lower relative to alts. ALT‑season tends to appear later—often after a Bitcoin top or during a prolonged consolidation—when risk appetite broadens, profits rotate into higher‑beta assets, and narratives fragment across sectors. The featured chart compares prior cycles and frames where we might be within the current one. Where we are in the 2024 halving cycle At this stage, Bitcoin may be close to a cyclical high—or may already have set it—but confirmation is lacking. Altcoins have rallied meaningfully, yet at a top‑down level there isn’t decisive evidence of a new, durable alt‑season. Key confirmations I’m watching: • CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 breaking out of large cup-and-handle formation. • 1/ CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS trending up together (alts outperforming BTC both broadly and at the margin). TOTAL2 — Cup & Handle setup The weekly structure in CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 (crypto market cap excluding BTC) resembles a maturing cup‑and‑handle. What I’ll need to see: A weekly close above the cup’s rim with follow‑through the next week. Moreover, we need to see a weekly close above the prior 2 highs, which currently could be a double top. Momentum has been on the decline since the rally on alts started in earnest earlier this year... OTHERS/BTC — rotation breadth check This ratio (total market cap excluding the top‑10, divided by BTC) gauges whether capital is rotating into the long‑tail (more speculative / smaller ALTs). It looks like this could have fallen below long term support which suggests the lower quality ALTs may have permanently lost value against BTC during this cycle. That would be reasonable considering there are so many coins now, many of which will likely fade into dust. 1/BTC.D — macro rotation proxy The inverse of Bitcoin dominance (1 divided by BTC.D) visualizes altcoin outperformance over the longest available history. Here we can see a recent breakout from a downward trend channel, which is definitely auspicious! Altcoin spotlights (examples & placeholders) Replace with your chosen set; keep a mix of large‑caps, infra, and high‑beta to illustrate breadth. • BINANCE:ETHBTC — let's see a new ATH! There's been a blistering rally, tripling from a rough patch earlier in 2025, but momentum still needs to improve. Also concerning is a major drop off in volume in recent years. • BINANCE:SOLBTC — Solana had an insane 10x rally early in the cycle, but looks like it could be cooling off with the makings of a head & shoulders amidst declining volume. • BINANCE:LINKBTC — Chainlink has seen a strong price pump in recent weeks, but like Solana appears to have fading momentum. Unless something changes, it's hard to see it moving materially higher during this cycle. • BINANCE:XRPBTC — put up a mind blowing vertical 5x rally in late 2024 / early 2025. Like Solana and LINK, it shows declining momentum, so it could very well have peaked for the cycle. • BINANCE:DOGEBTC — ostensibly the original meme coin, unlike the more practical ALTs we've reviewed DOGE looks to have gas in the tank. Strangely it looks best poised for a breakout given historical pricing and momentum. Analysis recap Unfortunately there are both bullish and bearish signals making it hard to lean one way or another right now. In summary: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD - 2024 halving cycle • looks close to complete, we may have already seen the top for the cycle • prior cycles have been a few weeks longer since the halving so there could be a bit further to go • during the past 2 cycles ALTs have topped once before (2016 cycle), and once after (2020 cycle) the Bitcoin top, which doesn't help us in predicting the outcome of the third (current) cycle. High-level analysis CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 - cup & handle -- bullish CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS - break below long term support -- bearish 1/ CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D - breakout of downward trend channel -- bullish Individual coin analysis BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:SOLUSD COINBASE:LINKUSD BITSTAMP:XRPUSD - all of these coins are technically neutral to bearish in my view, and they are heavyweights. COINBASE:DOGEUSD - shockingly bullish! Given that this is the epitome of a meme coin, maybe it means animal spirits are lurking in the shadows. It's hard to imagine DOGE pumping without the other coins we've looked at joining the party. Personal thoughts I decided to take a hard look at the prospects of an ALT-season to form my own opinion, mainly because I heard someone make a dismissive statement that "ALT-season always follows a Bitcoin top", or something to that effect. I think you can see it's not nearly that simple. Personally I think the market is pretty frothy, and risk assets could take a beating in the coming months. Just in case though, I've still got the XRP moon bag!
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by quickshiftinn
SILVER WILL NEED MORE BULLISH POWER TO OVERCOME SELLERS' LEVEL!With XAGUSD breaking bullish structure on the daily, facing selling pressures on weekly and slowing down on monthly outlooks; it will require more buying power for price to go beyond 78.6% fib level without revert to its mean first. N.B! - XAGUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #gold #xauusd
OANDA:XAGUSD
by BullBearMkt
BTC Bitcoin in Distribution Phase BLOW-OFF TOPI believe Bitcoin BTC is in Wyckoff Distribution Phase B heading for Upthrust After Distribution (New ATH) Sweeping $124,500 price. For me, that would be the BLOW-OFF TOP and the end of this cycles. For this scenario to play out, after taking liquidity above the current ATH, it needs to start reversing and dropping. If it closes above the current ATH, then this idea would be invalidated. There are other factors which would confirm this idea but I am not gonna share it publicly. Good luck and Happy Trading...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by f371321
USDZAR - Forecast, Outlook and Market WatchHello fellow Market Watchers ☕ Today I'll take a top-view look at the USDZAR chart. And since I am in South Africa, this pair is of particular interest to me. Now recently, the US introduced a 10% baseline tariff on most imports and lifted metals tariffs to 25%. Additionally, citrus, nuts, grapes and wine have been subjected to 30% duties since Aug. 7. There is no doubt that in the short term, this will cause ripple effects throughout the economy but in the long run, South Africa will find new trading partners - this is how trade works. This will likely extend to Asian markets. The priority is to export more to China, where duty-free access has already been secured for five types of fruit (unsure which fruits these are). South Africa will continue to strengthen ties with other countries to lessen reliance on the US for exports. Therefore, this is merely a short term hurdle. From the monthly perspective, we see a clear peak. A double top marks the price where sellers are ready to dominate: Although we've had two bearish micro-cycles (lasting just over two years and a year respectively), the multiyear trend has been bullish - almost "up only" since August 2011. July US inflation cooled, so markets still expect the Fed to cut rates in September. Futures point to a strong chance of a 25 bps cut, and the dollar has lost some momentum. When rate-cut odds rise and inflation-adjusted US bond yields fall, higher-beta currencies like the rand often firm up. However on a bullish note for the Rand, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the repo to 7.00% in July and said it aims at the bottom of the 3–6% target band, while June CPI printed 3.0%. This is optimistic news for the Rand, and further supports a decline on the chart. What to watch next • Fed path into September. Base case: a 25 bps cut. • DXY (the US dollar index). Softer DXY tends to help ZAR. • US real yields from the Treasury’s par real yield curve. Drifting lower is rand-friendly. • Powell at Jackson Hole. A tougher tone on inflation could cap rand gains. 10 Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security - Lower US real yields usually lift demand for higher-yielding EM assets, leading to Rand strengthening. DXY - A softer DXY = less broad USD strength, ZAR increases/strengthens Gold and Platinum - If these increase, that supports SA's exports and likely helps the Rand considering the export volume. It should be noted that platinum gains will be limited by the new metal tariff at 25% if exporting to the US . In 2023, South Africa exported approximately $16.2 billion worth of platinum globally. Of this, about $3.42 billion went to the US. That works out to roughly 21% of South Africa’s total platinum exports being destined for the U.S. I asked my friend GPT to put it in a table and got this helpful result: So to summarize: As of today (18 Aug 2025), markets still lean toward a Fed rate cut in September, with odds around the mid-80s, which has taken some heat out of the dollar and kept real Treasury yields anchored near ~1.9%—a mix that’s usually rand-friendly. Locally, SARB’s July move left the repo at 7.00% while June CPI printed 3.0%, so South Africa still offers positive real carry. Firm gold prices and subdued equity volatility also help sentiment. The main offset is trade policy risk, with the new 30% US tariff on many South African imports clouding the export outlook and current account. Net-net, if US data stay calm into Jackson Hole, the bias tilts to a softer USD against ZAR.
Short
by BlockTechEv