With note of the economics, for a while the FTSE 100 trading has mostly been contained to between the two zones, an area of support holding buyers at around the 7600.00 price, while the area around the 7800.00 has been keeping the FTSE 100 in check and acting as resistance stopping further upward movement. The large amount of sellers at around the 7800.00 will...
The AUDUSD presents an increasingly bearish technical stance according to the 4 hours chart on the broader horizon, however we should expect bullish wave this week towards potentially trend line resistance at 0.75 range as Investors digest the report following Fridays NFP and the market equalises. I'm bearish overall on the AUD due to a stronger USD over 2018...
A bearish channel has been confirmed, and the price has just bounced off the support level of this channel with a massive increase in momentum. I do believe that this currency would break out the top of the channel, this mainly depends on fundamentals. The fundamentals for the GBP are not looking very good due to Brexit and the massive chance the UK have got of...
In economics courses a lot of professors take the approach of telling stories. For instance, why does a supply or demand curve shift. Country X makes dingle fops, the main material used is copper; but country Y now makes whirly jigs so now copper costs more. Supply cost goes up. Demand stays the same but the supply of materials changes, so now the cost goes up...
"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machines. - most people have nothing to say to each other!" Paul Krugman - 1998 First the internet, then bitcoin. What's next Paul Krugman?
We flipped from a falling wedge to ascending triangle last week. Maybe our doom isn't so imminent. As you can see we broke above the resistance and we are currently printing a bull flag. Short term its looking long. BUT I am still very bearish over the next few months. A triple top could seal the deal and send us into a downtrend.
Tonight, we have the CAD employment data. No significant change expected in the data. However, if we get a positive NFP data, we could see the USD strengthen further. Giving the USDCAD a solid base to bounce off support of 1.2750. However, a buy trade should be triggered only if 1.28 is breached.
The cash rate is not expected to change, and the accompanying statement could indicate continual growth for the economy in 2018. Overall, it is likely to be positive news. But with less global risks now, we could see a short uptick in the AUDUSD, before it turns back down to test the recent lows.
Honestly, I just wanted to put in the word 'ecosystem' because it's such a buzzword in these ICOs I'm seeing. However, I like to think it's much more applicable in the case of this analysis. The market has been choppy. In fact, that's an understatement. Amanda Bynes' plastic surgeon wouldn't touch this market. Overall, though, we're in a bear market. Plain and...
Key points to note is: 1) The UK will be able to negotiate, sign and ratify its own trade deals 2) The UK will still be party to existing EU trade deals with other countries These are hugely beneficial agreements for the UK, as we saw in the massive jump in the GBPUSD. This news was a surprise to the market, resulting in a move of more than 150pips...
Tonight we have US retail sales data to be released, with analysts forecasting strong data of 0.3% from last month’s -0.3%. If data comes out as expected or higher, we could see the beginning of some USD strength. However, even with USD strength, I’ll only look for trades with USD strength in USDJPY (bouncing off 106.50) or AUDUSD (buoyed by positive CNY data).
Tonight we have US retail sales data to be released, with analysts forecasting strong data of 0.3% from last month’s -0.3%. If data comes out as expected or higher, we could see the beginning of some USD strength. However, even with USD strength, I’ll only look for trades with USD strength in USDJPY (bouncing off 106.50) or AUDUSD (buoyed by positive CNY data).
Planning for the BoJ coming up... seeing a stronger USD overnight, we could see the BoJ take the chance to take a slightly more dovish tone, to push the USDJPY higher
The EURGBP looks like it is on track to break above 0.90 resistance level, which was last breached in September 2017. If the trade setup is completed (breaking strongly above 0.90), I anticipate a massive move towards 0.93 For this to happen, we need either the GBP to weaken, possibly due to Brexit uncertainty, or the EUR to strengthen, possibly arising from...
Later tonight, we have the Bank of Canada making a decision on the overnight rate. Expectation for rates to be held at 1.25%. However, will the BoC surprise the market? I’ll think that that is unlikely. In January, the BoC increased rates, highlighting that this decision was likely to have been brought forward from April. Furthermore, there isn’t a press...
Volatility ahead. In addition to the uncertainty on the USD arising from the trade war (increased tariffs), and change of personnel in the White house, from today till Friday, we see several economic data release and policy decisions which could surprise the market and also bring about higher volatility. Tonight, we have the USD ADP NFP, which is released 2...
In the event of a stronger USD, a contradictory move in the USDJPY is expected. We see strength in the Yen as BoJ reduces bond purchases, giving hint to a scaling back of its massive monetary stimulus program (stealth tapering)
Yesterday PM May announced that an agreement for Brexit was close and that the UK would be leaving the EU in March 2019. As shown in early London market hours, this has cause uncertainty in the market, bringing prices lower. If price breaks below 1.3800, we could see the GBPUSD extend the move towards the 1.3700 support