Early morning, we have RBNZ rate decision. While the decision to maintain rates is expected, a neutral statement is anticipated to accompany the decision. Looking for another quick jump in the NZDUSD, followed by a reversal throughout the day.
Early tomorrow we see NZD employment data release, with an expectation for worse than expected performance. This is likely to drive the NZDUSD lower
I’ll still be cautious towards trading on sustained USD strength, especially seeing today’s price retracement. Take note of AUD retail and rate decision tomorrow. The AUDUSD came off the 0.8110 high, bouncing off 0.7900. While I do not expect any rate change, it’ll be important to pay attention to the RBA’s rate statement, and on their expectation and actions...
Expectation is for data to be as expected, but generating a GBP positive (upward move)
Today, again we see a low economic data releases, however, some USD strength is expected, with the exception of USDJPY. This is because of the BoJ’s expectation for the Yen to strengthen in the short term, due to the US currency policy.
As we look at the GBP q/q GDP, with an expectation for performance to hold the same (at 0.4%). This may represent a trend following buying opportunity for the GBPUSD, especially if the GBPUSD holds above 1.42. In the evening, we have US q/q GDP, expecting a data slightly worse than previous. This will be a data release I’ll be avoiding, due to 3 reasons, A...
this afternoon we have the release of GBP retail sales data for December. Interestingly, a result of -0.8% is expected despite the likelihood of increased sales during the festive period. Look for buying opportunities if the GBPUSD bounces strongly off the 1.3920 support (in lined with the current trend of the GBPUSD)
The economic data highlight for today/tonight will be the BoC rate decision. Has the Canadian economy and sentiment improved enough to warrant an interest rate increase by the BoC? While an earlier rate increase is highly anticipated (brought forward from April), this would also mean that the BoC is unlikely to further increase rates in the medium term. This...
Today we have GBP CPI y/y data to be released. Current concern is the pace of CPI growth in the UK economy, as expectation for CPI is at 3%, which is above the 1-3% range. In the usual circumstance, as inflation increases (especially beyond the target range), the tendency is for the Central Bank to increase interest rates. However, I do not think that the BoE will...
A counter trend opportunity could arise on the AUDUSD. As it approaches the 2015 & 2017 high of 0.8070, a reversal with very good R:R could be likely.
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD each rose by approximately 70pips as a result of the chinese consideration to stop buying treasury However, we should view it as a recommendation/consideration, thus not likely to have a lasting impact, evident in the strong retracement. We look for a continuation of GBP/USD moving lower, if it is able to break strongly below the 1.3500 level.
We could see an upset in the AUD economic data tomorrow morning could cause the AUD to break the 0.7800 level, extending downwards towards the 0.7730 level.
Today, we have the GBP Manufacturing Production data, with expectation for data to be better than expected. However, it is not expected that price of GBP/USD will move up significantly, due to the 73 pip move downward yesterday. A higher probability opportunity would be to sell the GBP/USD if data is released negative.
NFP on Friday (Actual 148k against forecasted 190k), with hourly earnings as forecasted at 0.3%. This weaker than expected economic data resulted in a weaker USD, with USDCAD dropping 140pips within the hour. However, this employment report also indicates steady improvement in the labour market, with no signs of overheating. Therefore, we can still expect the FED...
If we get a positive business outlook for the canadian economy, we could see the possibility of rate hike by the BoC This would further strengthen the CAD. A retest of 1.2450 resistance before heading lower toward 1.2280 support is likely
Today, we have a larger number of economic data release, with focus on the US NFP (employment) data. A quiet afternoon of price movements is anticipated as traders waits for the NFP release. We anticipate a slightly stronger data approximately 220k, compared to the forecast of 190k. Significant price volatility will arise if there is evidence of growth in the...
Focus on FOMC Meeting Minutes - Fed remains on track to raise interest rates 3 times in 2018. - Solid US labour market gains with expansion in economic activity - Low inflation is still a concern AUD on a strong upward trend, likely to continue, given the break of 0.7840 resistance.
Everyone is aware that Gold is a 'save haven' for forex traders when economic results are bearish for a certain asset. Meaning, when some economies are performing well, Gold will reciprocate and also become bearish themselves. This can be seen through the past two daily candle sticks after Germany, one of the top 7 economies, showed positive unemployment. -12K...