I will eventually start posting weekly videos with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments on which I place around 90% of the deals.
These include: SPX, Gold, Crude Oil, EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB.
If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments.
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Very high correlation btw relative value of EM vs DM stocks and Gold price
At the moment, either EM is very cheap vs DM or Gold is very expensive. This should correct in coming weeks
Idea stolen from TickByTick_Team on Twitter. Sorry not allowed to paste links here
As volatility has come back to the global markets with a vengeance, one headwind that continues to blow even stronger continues to be the US-China trade war. On August 2nd, the US unexpectedly imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with the Chinese now threatening to retaliate in kind. As a result of this renewed volatility, Emerging Market stocks ($EEM)...
BIDU (97/55) announces earnings on Monday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the New York session ... .
Pictured here is a September 80/120 short strangle paying 1.65 as of Friday close with delta/theta metrics of 1.57/8.07. You can naturally go defined risk, but you'll have to go in a smidge tighter with the shorts to...
Forgot to publish this idea a couple weeks ago:
BOT +2 VERTICAL EEM 100 20 SEP 19 42/41 PUT @.25
- pays 150 on max profit at 41 range on expiry
- breakeven at expiry 41.75. Needs a 2.7% drop to break even on the trade.
Slightly positive right now, and progressing well overall.
I put this trade on mid month when the EEM was around 43.
Looks like a type of H&S...
We currently live in a world where media has major sway in the psychology of investors, including ones who do their homework. After watching $EEM closely, I see that at each major event over the past few months (tariffs placed on China, Federal Reserve doesn't reveal a rate cut at June 18-19th meeting, G20 meeting) the ETF spiked before cooling down as more...
COST (46/25) announces earnings on Thursday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the regular New York session.
Pictured here is an iron condor in the July (53 days) expiry with the short options at their respective 20 delta strikes. Preliminarily, it's paying 1.55 at the mid price, a smidge shy of one-third the width of...
Nuevamente frente a los $700, este par ha sido muy ciclico en esta lateralizacion que vienen desde Septiembre 18'.
Again against the $ 700, this pair has been very cyclical in this period of lateralization, that started at September 18 '.
HD (33/24) announces earnings on Tuesday before market open; HPQ (68/38), Thursday after market close.
Although the rank/implied metrics are less than stellar, pictured here is an HD June 21st 180/185/200/205 iron condor paying 2.13 (1.06 at 50 max), expected move break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -2.22/2.96.
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is on bearish 1W price action (RSI = 41.481, Highs/Lows = -1.8644), repeating a pattern last seen in April 2011 - May 2012. During that period the price was rejected at 44.90, crossed below the MA50 and MA200 and found support just over the 0.786 Fibonacci level before recovering 100%.
We expect a similar price behavior...
EEM which can be thought as "Emerging Markets" looks fucked to me.
Baring a sudden trade deal this week (unlikely), EEM could see sub $40.
The puts I purchased last week have already doubled in value. :)
From a TA standpoint, let's review.
Price is below the green line (bearish) but bounced off support in the last 10 minutes of the trading...
This is an excerpt from MACRO BRIEF: Hong Kong Dollar Strengthens on Rate Spike originally published March 10, 2019.
The short-HKD trade is nearly consensus, which reminds me of the short-yuan trade a few years ago that was largely snuffed out by the PBOC.
Problem here, though, is the HKMA's attempts to draw in HKD inflows have been superficial at best....