potential fear and uncertainty for wallstreet boys a VIX spike UP could advise DXY long
The DOLLAR could step up and prove its worth in the ill-fated fiat domain!!!! Emerging FX currencies could be potentially the weakest against the dollar in coming weeks.
Earlier I posted maps for EEM consolidation (see related). This last sharp move makes me thinking of a completion of the correction. Then we got the contracting flat WXY. Triangle could be the next alternative ABCDE. Target will be at 75 then.
Coming into the new year, the reflationary trade was working quite well. In January, we saw a period of heightened volatility that stressed emerging markets. Brazil was no exception. That said, the weak dollar trend looks likely to resume in the next few months, after the positioning shake-out that we saw in January. Many hedge funds are still on the sidelines and...
South Africa is one Emerging Market economy poised for success given the recent dollar weakness. Today's retail sales data, +2.6% YoY vs 0.4% last month proves sequential acceleration in the macro data. Moreover, the noise around Eskom and SAA has been going on for years now and is merely noise. The only cause for concern would be a further downgrading of the...
Colombia is a high-beta EM country running a twin-deficit. These exposures turned bullish in November when the dollar started falling more precipitously, and the global risk backdrop improved. Dollar weakness is good for commodity exporting EM's, who price commodities in dollars. Moreover, Colombia provides significant beta to Oil prices, which are evidently...
FORMAL CHANGE OF THESIS, AND NOTES OF CROSS-ASSETS CORRELATION. Notes: From here on out (10/28/20 8:01 PM CT), this chart (above) will be standard format for OS# posts. In Draft 1, I saw a giant move down coming because the "major periods" look really bad. After a full count (line by line) analysis, I couldn't say that seriously and noted in Draft 2 noted that...
IN DRAFT 1, I PRESENTED THE EEM DESTRUCTION THESIS. AFTER SEVERAL INSPECTIONS, I DON'T HAVE EVIDENCE TO SAY THAT IS THE CASE. Notes: With that said, EEM will still be one of the 10 or 12 tickers I track bc of its popularity (not necessarily on TradingView0. Here is the 3 week outlook.
THIS COULD BE WHAT A BEAR'S DREAM WOULD LOOK LIKE. Notes: This is first draft, yes I get that, but the line up is really, really, really bearish. Will definitely add more for this one. Can't say when.
As COVID-19 Cases start to ease globally, markets are responding with a breakout higher. EEM (MSCI World Index ETF) has recently broken out above its $41 resistance level and consolidating today, providing a good risk/reward for a long position. With a Weekly Chart that has broken above its channel resistance and Daily Chart breaking higher, we are targeting $44...
--- Please if you find this informative don't forget to give a like. Thank you! --- Just redrawing old ideas from a year ago... Nothing to redraw in fact due it seems they are going to default sooner or later for 19th time in history. You can check for yourself in the related idea just a year ago how the country situation has not improved. This is just a...
The left chart show's FXCM's emerging markets currency index, EMBASKET is black below its 50-day SMA. Moreover the SMA is pointing down with the RSI on the bearish side of 50 (blue rectangle). The right chart shows the hourly time frame. Here the green 5-hour EMA has crossed below the orange 10-hour EMA (green ellipse) and the RSI has moved below 50 (bright green...
Traders & Investors, We anticipate emerging markets to be vulnerable to a macro slowdown following the virus outbreak in China. Emerging Markets have a high dependency on Chinese demand and consumption which often creates a very strong correlation between domestic activity/trade and the performance of these markets. The effects of the virus are prominent with...
Given recent tensions in the Middle East, the Saudi Arabian ETF sold off and back-tested the previous resistance trend-line. The ETF has now rebounded off this trend-line, and looks bullish to continue to the July highs. Given the slightly weaker dollar macro picture, EM countries should be supported. KSA is a good play for a de-escalation in the Middle East and...
Fundamental analysis With all the hype around Beyond Meat meatless burgers. Tyson (TSN) who is a now official competitor on this semi-new (not only for vegetarian) market could be a gainer. Technical analysis RSI @48 trending higher (could be stronger) OBV confirming at all time high We made a head and shoulders (shown on chart), with a positive uptrend...
Current rise in emerging markets could be temporary as it is a pullback after a breakdown below the support of consolidation. To resume down the price should break below blue support.
EEM which can be thought as "Emerging Markets" looks fucked to me. Short this. Baring a sudden trade deal this week (unlikely), EEM could see sub $40. The puts I purchased last week have already doubled in value. :) From a TA standpoint, let's review. Price is below the green line (bearish) but bounced off support in the last 10 minutes of the trading...