Portier

Global Emerging Markets - Macro Outlook & Commentary

Short
AMEX:EEM   iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund
Traders & Investors,

We anticipate emerging markets to be vulnerable to a macro slowdown following the virus outbreak in China. Emerging Markets have a high dependency on Chinese demand and consumption which often creates a very strong correlation between domestic activity/trade and the performance of these markets.

The effects of the virus are prominent with analyst expectations of substantial drops in Chinese Q1 GDP, dovish positioning of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, sell off in Crude/Brent, gaps lower in Asian Equities and flows into risk-off assets.

Following the euphoric bull run in 17'/18' and pullback into fair value, we see price correcting for a move lower into our buyside floor and macro swing targets of 34.0x.

We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios

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Until next time,

Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
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