$SPY average trade size picked up in wks 2 & 3 of February leading to weakening in the S&P 500. Now churning between $213.40 resistance & $207 - 208 support. I would expect much churn back and forth ahead of FED rate (possible tightening) announcements. Likely distribution for many months up here.
$ES_F still above support with churn and holding. Rollover is coming. Pro positioning will be key. #2 Excess supply sig on 2015.02.25. Major macro econ events (FED rates) coming that will affect equities.
The DAX has had a huge rally of 36.51% from the October low, 22.55% in 2015 and 11.46% from the ECB's announcment of euro style QE. This is a huge rally that could enter some resistance with the start of the ECB's QE starting in March. next week the ECB meets on the 5th and could create a news reversal. IMO this current rally since the ECB announced QE could be...
I'm not implying the spx rally is over or a top is in. But looking at the channel the spx has been trading in since 2011 lows, there is not much room to the upside at the moment and believe by observation there is more room for the spx to pullback. My plan is to sell the hwb from highs to lows as long as it acts as resistance with a tight stop. Last week was the...
This is clearly a contrarian, and potentially very painful trade. I'd say is best to play it with options - implied vol is at the year's lows and you will have limited downside on the position. But for those trading cash SPY, like me at the moment, here's my rationale for a short:
Technicals:
- We are close to getting overbought (Daily RSI is hovering around the...
Despite covering our NQ position we will hold on to the ES for a our second target. We still like the 2120 area. Stops have been pulled tighter just in case this move becomes a head fake. Lesson: manage your trades and don't let a winner turn into a loser!
ES is still looking good. We have not changed anything with our stops. If we see a good move to the downside we will adjust stops but we are still looking for the 2120 area for the next target.
Longs triggered in the ES. Like the NQ first targets were hit on Friday. Next target for us in the 2120 area. This has potential of being a really good trade. Stay tuned.
Da bulls. We are long per our last post. We have hit out first target Friday and have pulled our stops up looking to the 4400 area for the next target. The third target will be open. Read past posts...if you were patient you were rewarded on this trade. Stay tuned
Bulls and bears want (IMO) a retrace up to 2050. Bears want to go short
at a higher price and bulls want to break through the high from earlier
this month. I will be glued to the 30 min and 5 min charts looking for longs.
I reinstated my short on SPY this Friday at the open, after riding the first down-and-up wave of the year. My rationale:
Technicals: RSI divergence on since the early December highs; strong rejection of the Pivot point at the 205.50 area, 206 seeming to be the area of strong selling pressure. The market bounced off the Ichimoku Cloud top on Tuesday, but it seems...
You only have the past data plus what is going on now, that is the present to predict the future price action.
So what you need exactly to be a successful trader??
- Well, you need the odds to stack up to pick the right direction of each trade.
- System, method, strategy that generates big winners vs losers.
- Be emotionless by having precise entry / exit...
Day six of testing the 2060-2078 levels.
when we will break the 2078.75 level, my first target will be 2100, second target will be 2118
and after raising to this new high we will test the 2140 level.
Good luck!
04 DEC 2014 - Update:
Friends,
Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.
In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.
Looking at the $USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal...
The over all market remains strong. The NFP number is out on Friday and could pop us into the 2100 area. For now the path of least resistance is up. Be smart with your risk.
TECH-NOTE:
From Twitter:
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#CME's $ESZ2014 eyes internal 1.414-Fib and 1-3-5 Line confluence:
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via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #nikkei #forex
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Worth following as it correlates positively well with $USDJPY
S&P500 This Week Perspective
This week should be the turning point on weekly chart and price should start falling off the high next week. Are we talking about the odds here, the import point I want to stress on here is the weekly high 2044 must be respected. Any breakout of this high will turn S&P 500 into bullish mode again 2064, 2070, and 2099 are possible...
