Last week in the news Fed kept interest rates unchanged during the previous week, with Powell`s note that they have “probably '' peaked, showing Fed`s final alignment with the market. Their decision had a modest impact on financial markets during the previous week, considering that it has been widely expected. The US equity indices continued to move around...
The US reported a gain of 353K jobs in January, nearly double the expectations of 180K. On top of upward revisions worth 126K. Wages rose by 0.6%, double the expectations, and YoY they are up 4.5%, smashing estimates of 4.1%. Excellent data meant a straightforward reaction, with minimal reversals and an ongoing extension. The US Dollar is up, Gold is down, and...
The EUR/USD is extending gains towards the 1.0900 level in the early European morning hours on Friday. The US dollar is struggling to find strength, allowing the euro to rise further in an optimistic climate. All eyes are now on the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. Regarding the dollar, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has remained within the established...
Preferred direction: BUY Comment: For gold , we highlight the short-term scenario in long. Metals , especially gold , resisted the pressure of the US dollar best; here the context for growth is, in principle, prepared. There are two main scenarios for growth and all are aimed at updating short-term highs towards the region 2060-2070. This expected...
Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Similar to the situation with EURUSD , for the British currency we are also starting to consider a medium-term purchase. Yes, the US dollar has begun to strengthen as we expected, but most likely the growth of the American currency will not be as impressive as we expected. One of the options would be to fix part of the...
Preferred direction: BUY Comment: After the Fed meeting, as we expected, the US currency strengthened based on the results of the press conference and comments from the regulator. However, the growth of the dollar is already approaching its end and most likely now we need to take a closer look at medium-term purchases. We are now considering two main long...
USD opportunity? Market overestimating March rate cut? The market is only pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut from the US Fed in March now. Is this probability too high still? Jerome Powell spoke after the latest FOMC decision yesterday and noted that it was unlikely that the Fed would be cutting rates in March. Why is the market still pricing in a 30%...
GBPNZD currently exhibits a bearish structure highlighted by this bearish channel. Currently, the price, after bouncing off the bottom of this channel, is at a crucial point. The latest bullish reaction has led to the formation of a demand zone, ranging from 2.0760 to 2.0940. If the bearish trend maintains its strength, it is possible that the price will decline...
The GBP/USD remains in a defensive position, trading in the negative territory around 1.2650 during the American session on Tuesday. The careful market approach is assisting the USD in maintaining resilience against its competitors following a release of mixed data. This cautious sentiment is putting pressure on the currency pair as it approaches the upcoming Fed...
Fed Reaction In the morning update for February 1, 2024, the focus is on the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's recent policy announcement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged recent inflation but emphasized the need for more data before making decisions. The market responded with a 1.6% drop in the S&P 500, the most significant since September, although a...
The GBP/USD currency pair is having difficulty finding a decisive short-term direction and is fluctuating within a well-known trading range. Reduced bets on an imminent interest rate cut by the Bank of England support the British Pound (GBP) and provide some backing to the currency pair. Although the short-term technical outlook has yet to reveal a bearish...
EURJPY broke below 159 in the hours leading up to the FED, and as per the manual, the yen gained strength before the most anticipated event of the month. Now the price is in a reversal zone, specifically around the 62-78 Fibonacci levels, and I anticipate a retracement to the 160 level where a supply zone has just been formed after breaking a crucial swing low....
GBPCAD has started to show upward strength after bouncing at the 1.70 level, where a demand zone is located. The price underwent a significant structural change on the M15 timeframe yesterday, presenting a trading opportunity that could have yielded a 1% profit before the release of Canadian data. Personally, I did not execute that trade. Currently, it appears to...
Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The situation with metals is quite ambiguous, but nevertheless, considering this instrument from a medium-term point of view, most likely the instrument does not intend to grow yet. According to our two short scenarios, we expect a false upward move before the fall. Of course, this is the first more positive scenario for...
Preferred direction : SELL Comment: Just as in the case of the euro, the British pound is also under the target of sales, however, it should be noted that the potential for a fall here is lower than that of the former. We have previously written about selling using this instrument and continue to adhere to this. Today marks the start of a rather busy period...
Preferred direction: SELL Comment: As before, despite everything, we continue to adhere to sales in euros. The main target for the fall is the level of 1.07000 , which is also relevant before the upcoming Fed meeting. Of course, more attention will be focused on the press-conference and what mood the regulator will show. If the scenario with the ECB ...
The FED left rates unchanged as expected and removed language talking about potentially raising rates – also fully expected. The hawkish twist came from a comment on waiting to be more confident about falling inflation. That sent the USD up, risk assets down. Then came Powell with a dovish comment – he signaled the Fed only needs a continuation of data, not...
With the FOMC practically concluded, the market is reacting with a strong sell-off in both crypto and stocks. The FED has announced to keep their interest rate stable for the 4th time in a row, as it wants to see a stronger reduction in inflation before cutting rates. Higher rates for longer, the market doesn't like that. As seen on the chart, BTC is trading in...