Gold SHORT — $4,000 Broken Again. $3,780 Target🥇 GOLD (XAUUSD) — SHORT SETUP
June 29, 2026
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⚡ $4,000 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL BROKEN:
Gold is at $4,031.
Already broke below $4,000 last week
touching $3,981.
Bounced briefly.
Now testing $4,000 again from above.
When a key level is tested twice
and fails to hold —
the third test usually breaks lower.
The fundamental backdrop
gives bulls no support:
🌡️ PCE May: +4.1% — 3-year high
🏦 Fed: no cuts, hike possible
💵 Dollar: at multi-month highs
🕊️ Iran ceasefire: no safe-haven bid
📉 ECB: preparing to CUT rates
= euro falls = dollar stronger
= gold more expensive globally
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📊 TRADE SETUP:
🎯 Entry: $4,025 – $4,035
🛑 Stop Loss: $4,163
✅ Take Profit: $3,780
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1:1.9
⏱ Timeframe: Intraday / Short-term
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💡 BEARISH FACTORS:
🔴 $4,000 broken twice already
🔴 PCE +4.1% = 3-year high
🔴 Fed: rate hike possible 2026
🔴 Dollar at multi-month highs
🔴 ECB preparing rate CUTS
= further dollar strength
🔴 Iran ceasefire = no war premium
🔴 Tech selloff = risk-off
but no safe-haven to gold
🔴 Quarter-end rebalancing pressure
🟢 RISK FACTORS:
- NFP Thursday weak = recession =
gold safe-haven bid returns
- Iran re-escalates suddenly
- Break above $4,163 = stop hit
- Dollar reverses on weak data
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🔍 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
🔴 Stop Loss: $4,163
🔴 Resistance: $4,100 → $4,163
🔵 Entry zone: $4,025 – $4,035
🟡 Support: $3,950
🟢 Target: $3,780
$4,000 tested twice:
→ June 25: touched $3,981
→ Today: $4,031 — approaching again
Classic double-top at $4,000.
Break below = next support $3,780.
EMA 200: $4,380 — far above.
Gold deeply below EMA 200.
Long-term bear trend confirmed.
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📅 KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
Wednesday July 1:
→ ISM Manufacturing PMI
→ ADP Employment
→ JOLTS Job Openings
→ Weak data = recession = gold ↑ ⚠️
Thursday July 3 🔴🔴 CRITICAL:
→ NFP Jobs Report 18:30 GMT
→ Markets close early (July 4 eve)
NFP scenarios for gold:
✅ Weak NFP (+100K or less):
→ Recession fear = gold bounces
→ Exit short position quickly
❌ Strong NFP (+200K+):
→ Fed hike confirmed
→ Dollar surges
→ Gold to $3,780 ✅
⚠️ Consider reducing position
before NFP Thursday.
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🌍 TODAY'S MARKET SNAPSHOT:
🥇 Gold: $4,031 (testing $4,000)
🛢️ Brent: $72.95 ↓ (near pre-war lows)
₿ Bitcoin: $60,032 (fragile $60K)
📊 Dow Mini: 52,470 (resilient)
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1401 ↓ (ECB cut fears)
Gold and Bitcoin both struggling.
Dollar winning across the board.
Dow = only safe haven for now.
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🌍 THE BIGGER PICTURE:
This is NOT the end of gold's
long-term bull market.
Oil falling fast = inflation may peak.
June PCE (July 30) should be lower.
If confirmed = Fed hike off table.
Gold could recover to $4,380+.
But RIGHT NOW:
Dollar too strong.
PCE too hot.
$4,000 broken.
Long-term: buy the dip.
Short-term: the dip continues.
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⚖️ OVERALL BIAS: BEARISH
$4,000 psychological level broken +
PCE at 3-year high +
Dollar at multi-month highs +
ECB preparing cuts = more USD strength +
R/R 1:1.9 ✅
$4,000 held twice — barely.
Third test = likely breaks lower.
Target $3,780.
Stop $4,163.
Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals
on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯
⚠️ Educational purposes only.
Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏 
Short
Gold Weekly Outlook Jun 29 — Jul 3 — NFP Thursday + PCE Maximum📊 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK — Jun 29 — Jul 3, 2026
XAUUSD Daily | BEARISH → Watching for reversal
Verified closing prices — June 26, 2026:
🥇 Gold: $4,046
🛢️ Brent: $73.47
₿ Bitcoin: $59,353
📊 Dow Mini: 52,289
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1399
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⚡ WEEK IN REVIEW — Jun 22-26:
Three dominant stories:
1️⃣ US-IRAN CEASEFIRE SIGNED:
Strait of Hormuz reopened.
1 billion barrels of trapped oil
flowing back to market.
Brent crashed from $82 → $73.
War premium = essentially GONE.
2️⃣ PCE HIT 3-YEAR HIGH:
Headline PCE May: +4.1% YoY ❌
→ Highest since April 2023
→ 3rd consecutive monthly increase
Core PCE: +3.4% ❌ above forecast
3️⃣ GDP BEAT:
Q1 2026 final: +2.1% vs +1.6% ✅
Equipment investment: +17.2%
But consumer spending: only +1.4% ⚠️
Verdict: STAGFLATION confirmed.
Growth OK + Inflation accelerating
= Fed cannot cut rates.
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📊 WEEK PERFORMANCE — Jun 22-26:
🥇 Gold: $4,340 → $4,046 = -6.8% 🔴
🛢️ Brent: $82.89 → $73.47 = -11.4% 🔴
₿ Bitcoin: $66,140 → $59,353 = -10.3% 🔴
📊 Dow Mini: 52,136 → 52,289 = +0.3% ✅
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1609 → 1.1399 = -1.8%
Everything fell except Dow.
Dollar was the only winner.
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🔍 TECHNICAL PICTURE (Daily):
🔴 Resistance 3: $4,380 (EMA 200)
🔴 Resistance 2: $4,200
🔴 Resistance 1: $4,100
🔵 Current price: $4,046
🟡 Support 1: $4,000 ← CRITICAL
🟢 Support 2: $3,850-3,900
Gold touched $3,981 this week —
BELOW $4,000 for first time
since December 2025.
Then bounced back to $4,046.
$4,000 = critical psychological level.
Holding above it = correction.
Breaking below = bear market.
EMA 200: $4,380 — far above.
EMA 50: ~$4,500 — very far above.
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💡 ONE BULLISH SIGNAL:
Analysts say May PCE may be the PEAK.
Why:
→ Hormuz reopened = oil prices falling
→ Brent at $73 vs $119 peak
→ June PCE should come in LOWER
→ If confirmed July 30 = rate hike
off the table
→ Gold could recover strongly
This is the ONLY hope for gold bulls
in the short term.
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📈 SCENARIO A — Bullish (30%):
Triggers:
✅ NFP Thursday weak = recession fear
✅ Dollar reverses lower
✅ Iran re-escalates
✅ Oil bounces = inflation persists
but geopolitical = safe-haven
→ Gold holds $4,000
→ Bounce to $4,200
→ Relief rally
📉 SCENARIO B — Bearish (70%):
Triggers:
❌ NFP strong = Fed hike confirmed
❌ Dollar continues strengthening
❌ PCE June also hot (July 30)
❌ Bitcoin breaks $55,000
→ Gold breaks $4,000 again
→ Test of $3,850-3,900
→ Bear market confirmed
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📅 KEY EVENTS NEXT WEEK:
Monday June 29:
→ No major US data
→ Iran ceasefire developments
→ Gap risk at open
Tuesday June 30:
→ Chicago PMI
→ Consumer Confidence
→ Quarter-end rebalancing
= volatility possible
Wednesday July 1:
→ ISM Manufacturing PMI
→ ADP Employment
→ JOLTS Job Openings
Thursday July 3 🔴🔴 BIGGEST DAY:
→ NFP Jobs Report — 14:30 ET
(18:30 GMT)
→ Markets close early (July 4 eve)
→ Weak NFP = recession = gold ↑
→ Strong NFP = Fed hike = gold ↓
Friday July 4:
→ US Independence Day — CLOSED
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🏦 FED PICTURE:
New Chair Warsh — position clear:
→ NO rate cuts in 2026
→ Rate hike POSSIBLE
→ "5 years failing 2% target
is unacceptable"
But one hope:
→ Oil falling fast = inflation may peak
→ June PCE (July 30) could be lower
→ If so = rate hike off table
→ Gold recovery possible
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📅 KEY UPCOMING DATES:
July 3 🔴 — NFP Jobs Report
July 4 — US Independence Day CLOSED
July 10 🔴 — CPI June
July 30 🔴🔴 — PCE June
(most important for gold in July)
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₿ BITCOIN — BREAKING DOWN:
Bitcoin broke BELOW $60,000.
Current: $59,353.
Key levels:
🔴 Resistance: $62,000 → $65,000
🔵 Current: $59,353
🟡 Support: $58,000
🟢 Last defence: $55,000
Why BTC is falling:
→ $1B+ leveraged liquidations this week
→ Traders rotating to AI stocks
→ Hawkish Fed = risk-off
→ Treasury yields at 4.21%
→ 6+ weeks ETF outflows
NFP Thursday = key for BTC too.
Weak = recession = BTC relief
Strong = Fed hike = BTC $55K
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🛢️ OIL — WAR PREMIUM GONE:
Brent at $73.47.
Pre-war fair value: $68-72.
Remaining premium: ~$1-5.
Goldman Sachs base case: $56.
Ceasefire + supply glut =
oil has more room to fall.
Falling oil = GOOD for gold long-term:
→ Inflation peaks in May
→ June PCE lower
→ Fed hike less likely
→ Gold recovers
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🌍 THE BIGGER PICTURE:
Gold in 2026:
→ All-time high Jan 28: $5,589
→ Week's low: $3,981
→ Current: $4,046
→ Correction: -27.6% from peak
→ Still up +20% year-over-year
Long-term targets if Fed pivots:
✅ JPMorgan: $6,300
✅ Goldman Sachs: $4,900+
✅ Central banks still buying records
The bull case depends on:
→ May PCE = inflation peak
→ June PCE cools (July 30)
→ Fed holds, then cuts in 2027
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⚠️ MONDAY OPEN WARNING:
Quarter-end Monday June 29.
Fund rebalancing = extra volatility.
Iran ceasefire weekend headlines
= possible gap moves.
Wait 30-45 min before trading Monday.
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⚖️ OVERALL BIAS: BEARISH
Gold -27.6% from peak ⚠️
PCE at 3-year high ⚠️
Hawkish Fed ⚠️
Bitcoin below $60K ⚠️
Dollar at multi-month highs ⚠️
BUT:
$4,000 psychological support ✅
Oil falling = inflation may peak ✅
NFP Thursday = wildcard ✅
PCE June (July 30) = game changer ✅
NFP Thursday = this week's decision.
PCE July 30 = the month's decision.
Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals
on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯
⚠️ Educational purposes only.
Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏 Bitcoin LONG — Bounce From $59K. Bottom Found? $65,100 Target₿ BITCOIN (BTCUSD) — LONG SETUP
June 8, 2026
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⚡ SURPRISE RECOVERY THIS WEEKEND:
Everyone expected Bitcoin to crash
below $60,000 and keep falling.
Instead — it bounced.
From $59,000 low →
Back to $63,516 today.
That's +$4,500 in 48 hours.
What caused the bounce?
🔵 Oversold conditions — RSI
hit extreme levels not seen
since the January crash
🔵 $60,000 psychological floor held
🔵 Long-term holders buying the dip
🔵 SpaceX IPO excitement = risk-on
for tech assets
🔵 Anticipation of CPI Wednesday =
if cool = rate cuts back = BTC ↑
This is not euphoria.
This is technical stabilisation.
But stabilisation can become
the foundation for a real bounce.
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📊 TRADE SETUP:
🎯 Entry: $63,200 – $63,516
🛑 Stop Loss: $62,000
✅ Take Profit: $65,100
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1:2.0
⏱ Timeframe: H4
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💡 BULLISH FACTORS:
🟢 $59,000 low held as floor
🟢 +$4,500 bounce in 48 hours
🟢 $60,000 psychological support held
🟢 Oversold RSI bounce
🟢 SpaceX IPO = risk-on mood
🟢 CPI Wednesday = potential catalyst
Cool CPI = rate cuts back = BTC ↑
🟢 Long-term holders accumulating
🟢 Institutional infrastructure intact
(BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Schwab)
🔴 RISK FACTORS:
- CPI hot Wednesday = risk-off returns
= BTC retests $59,000
- SpaceX IPO = capital rotation
away from BTC to SPCX
- Break below $62,000 = stop hit
- Gold below EMA 200 = risk-off signal
- Fed hike June 17 = major negative
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🔍 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
🔴 Target: $65,100
🔴 Resistance: $65,000 → $68,000
🔵 Entry zone: $63,200 – $63,516
🟡 Support: $62,000 (stop level)
🟢 Strong support: $60,000
$59,000 = week's low = tested and held.
Three consecutive days at $60K+.
Higher lows forming:
$59,000 → $60,330 → $63,516
This is the early pattern of a bounce.
Not confirmed — but developing.
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⚠️ THIS IS A SHORT-TERM TACTICAL TRADE
Long-term picture still unclear:
→ Gold below EMA 200 = risk-off
→ Strong NFP = Fed hike possible
→ Stagflation = headwind for BTC
This trade exploits:
→ Technical oversold bounce
→ $60K floor defence
→ CPI catalyst Wednesday
If CPI hot = exit immediately.
If CPI cool = hold toward $68K.
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📅 KEY EVENTS FOR BTC THIS WEEK:
Wednesday June 10 🔴🔴:
→ US CPI 14:30 ET (18:30 GMT)
→ Cool CPI = BTC surges to $68K+
→ Hot CPI = BTC retests $59K
Friday June 12:
→ SpaceX SPCX trading begins
→ Capital rotation risk
→ But excitement = risk-on
June 16-17 🔴🔴:
→ Fed meeting — Warsh first decision
→ Rate cut = BTC to $75K+
→ Rate hike = BTC to $55K
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🌍 TODAY'S MARKET SNAPSHOT:
₿ Bitcoin: $63,516 ↑ (bouncing!)
🥇 Gold: $4,324 ↓ (below EMA 200)
🛢️ Brent: $94.75
📊 Dow Mini: 51,022
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1536
Bitcoin bouncing while gold still falling.
Interesting divergence —
crypto leading the recovery
before traditional safe-havens.
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⚖️ OVERALL BTC BIAS: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
$59,000 floor held +
$4,500 weekend bounce +
$60K psychological support intact +
Oversold RSI +
CPI Wednesday = potential catalyst =
tactical long with clear levels.
Not a conviction buy.
A technical trade with defined risk.
CPI Wednesday decides everything.
Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals
on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯
⚠️ Educational purposes only.
Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏 
Long
Gold Weekly Outlook Jun 8-12 — EMA 200 Already Broken.📊 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK — Jun 8-12, 2026
XAUUSD Daily | BEARISH
Current prices — June 7, 2026 (Saturday):
🥇 Gold: $4,328 ← BELOW EMA 200!
🛢️ Brent: $92.87
₿ Bitcoin: $60,330
📊 Dow Mini: 50,792
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1521
🚨 CRITICAL UPDATE:
Gold broke BELOW EMA 200 ($4,379.9).
First time since October 2025.
This is a major technical event.
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⚡ NFP MAY 2026 — STRONG BEAT:
Released Friday June 5:
✅ Jobs: +172,000 vs +85K forecast
✅ Revisions: +93,000 additional
→ Unemployment: 4.3% (unchanged)
→ Wage growth: 3.4% (slowed)
Strong jobs = Fed CAN hike.
Dollar surged after data.
Gold broke down on weekend.
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📊 WEEK IN REVIEW — Jun 1-5:
🥇 Gold: $4,540 → $4,464 = -1.7%
🛢️ Brent: $91.57 → $94.67 = +3.4%
₿ Bitcoin: $73,820 → $62,251 = -15.6% 🔴
📊 Dow Mini: 51,048 → 51,744 = +1.4%
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1660 → 1.1638 = flat
Since Friday close (weekend moves):
🥇 Gold: $4,464 → $4,328 = -3.0% 🔴
₿ Bitcoin: $62,251 → $60,330 = -3.1% 🔴
📊 Dow Mini: 51,744 → 50,792 = -1.8%
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1638 → 1.1521 = -1.0%
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🔍 TECHNICAL PICTURE (Daily):
🔴 Resistance 2: $4,550
🔴 Resistance 1: $4,450
🔴 EMA 200: $4,379.9 ← NOW RESISTANCE
🔵 Current price: $4,328
🟡 Support 1: $4,280
🟢 Support 2: $4,100-4,000
⚠️ MAJOR TECHNICAL DAMAGE:
Gold broke BELOW EMA 200 ($4,379.9).
This level is now RESISTANCE.
Last time gold was below EMA 200:
October 2025.
What this means:
→ Long-term bull trend BROKEN
→ $4,380 must be reclaimed
to restore bullish structure
→ Next support: $4,280 → $4,000
EMA 50 Daily: ~$4,620
Gold is $292 below EMA 50.
Deeply oversold — but bearish.
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📈 SCENARIO A — Bullish (25%):
Triggers needed:
✅ CPI Wednesday cools below 3.5%
✅ Dollar reverses sharply lower
✅ Iran deal collapses
✅ Bitcoin stabilises above $60K
→ Gold reclaims EMA 200 at $4,380
→ Confirms false breakdown
→ Target: $4,450-4,550
→ Bull trend restored
📉 SCENARIO B — Bearish (75%):
Triggers:
❌ CPI hot again above 3.8%
❌ Dollar continues strengthening
❌ Iran nuclear deal confirmed
❌ Bitcoin breaks $58,000
→ Gold continues to $4,100
→ Psychological $4,000 test
→ Bull market officially over
until Fed pivots
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📅 KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
Monday June 8:
→ No major US data
→ Iran deal developments
→ SpaceX IPO roadshow
→ Gold gap risk at open ⚠️
→ Watch if $4,328 holds
Wednesday June 10 🔴🔴 MOST IMPORTANT:
→ US CPI Inflation 14:30 ET
(18:30 GMT)
→ April CPI was +3.8% YoY
→ LAST data before Fed June 16-17
→ GOLD'S LAST CHANCE this month
CPI scenarios for gold:
✅ Cool CPI below 3.5%:
→ Rate hike off the table
→ Dollar falls
→ Gold reclaims EMA 200 ($4,380)
→ Bull trend possibly restored
❌ Hot CPI above 3.8%:
→ Rate hike June 17 confirmed
→ Dollar surges further
→ Gold falls to $4,100-4,000
→ Bear market confirmed
Thursday June 11:
→ US Jobless Claims
→ PPI data
Friday June 12:
→ SpaceX IPO trading begins (SPCX)
→ Michigan Consumer Sentiment
→ Fed blackout continues
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🏦 THE JUNE 16-17 FED MEETING:
New Chair Warsh faces:
→ Core PCE: +3.3%
→ NFP: +172K (strong beat)
→ CPI June 10: ??? (last input)
→ Gold breaking down = market stress
Three scenarios:
1. HIKE 25bps:
→ Dollar surges
→ Gold to $4,000
→ Bitcoin to $55,000
2. HOLD + hawkish:
→ Dollar firm
→ Gold range $4,100-4,380
→ Pressure continues
3. HOLD + dovish:
→ Dollar falls sharply
→ Gold reclaims $4,380+
→ Bull trend resumes
→ Bitcoin relief to $68K+
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🚀 SPACEX IPO THIS WEEK:
Pricing: June 11
Trading: June 12 (SPCX)
Valuation: $1.75-2 trillion
Maximum capital rotation this week:
→ Money leaving BTC and gold → SPCX
→ Additional selling pressure
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₿ BITCOIN — $60,000 AT RISK:
Bitcoin: $60,330
Key levels:
🔴 Resistance: $62,000 → $65,000
🔵 Current: $60,330
🟡 Support: $60,000 ← CRITICAL NOW
🟢 Last defence: $58,000
$60,000 = psychological floor.
Break below = $55,000-58,000 possible.
Bitcoin down -38% from May high.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌍 THE BIGGER PICTURE:
Gold in 2026:
→ All-time high Jan 28: $5,589
→ EMA 200: $4,379.9 ← BROKEN
→ Current: $4,328
→ Correction: -22.6% from peak
→ Still up +28% year-over-year
For gold bull trend to resume:
→ Must close ABOVE $4,380 (EMA 200)
→ CPI Wednesday is the catalyst
→ Fed June 17 is the decision
Long-term targets intact IF recovered:
✅ JPMorgan: $6,300
✅ Goldman Sachs: $4,900+
✅ Central banks still buying
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ MONDAY OPEN WARNING:
Gold already -$136 since Friday.
Bitcoin already -$1,921 since Friday.
EUR/USD already -117 pips since Friday.
Monday open = risk of further gaps.
Wait 30-45 minutes.
See if $4,280 holds as support.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚖️ OVERALL BIAS: BEARISH
EMA 200 broken — first time since Oct 2025 🚨
Gold at $4,328 — $52 below EMA 200 ⚠️
Strong NFP = Fed hike risk ⚠️
Dollar surging to 1.1521 ⚠️
Bitcoin approaching $60K ⚠️
SpaceX IPO = capital drain this week ⚠️
CPI Wednesday = gold's last chance.
Cool CPI = false breakdown = buy.
Hot CPI = confirmed bear = sell more.
This is the most critical week
for gold in 2026.
Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals
on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯
⚠️ Educational purposes only.
Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏 ₿ BITCOIN (BTCUSD) — SHORT SETUP May 19, 2026⚡ THE NUMBER THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING:
$1,250,000,000.
That's how much money LEFT
Bitcoin ETFs this week alone.
One week. $1.25 billion in outflows.
Remember April?
$2 billion INFLOWS in one month.
Everyone was bullish.
$80,000 was "the new floor."
Now the same institutions
that were buying in April
are SELLING in May.
What changed?
🔥 Hot CPI — inflation not cooling
🔥 Hot PPI — producer prices elevated
⚔️ US-Iran tensions escalating
📈 Dollar surging to multi-week highs
❌ Rate cut hopes — completely dead
The macro environment that
supported Bitcoin in April
has completely reversed in May.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📊 TRADE SETUP:
🎯 Entry: $76,500 – $76,900
🛑 Stop Loss: $77,900
✅ Take Profit: $75,100
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1:2.1
⏱ Timeframe: H4
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 BEARISH FACTORS:
🔴 $1.25B ETF outflows this week
= institutional selling confirmed
🔴 Two-week lows already hit
🔴 US-Iran tensions = risk-off
🔴 Hot CPI + PPI = no rate cuts
🔴 Dollar at multi-week highs
🔴 $80,000 failed to hold as floor
🔴 Sentiment fragile — weak hands
still holding from April highs
🔴 $76,000 = next key support test
🟢 RISK FACTORS:
- NVIDIA beats Wednesday = risk-on
= BTC could spike $3K-5K instantly
- Iran ceasefire = risk-on
- Break above $77,900 = stop hit
- New institutional announcement
- MicroStrategy surprise buying
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📅 KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
Today May 19:
→ Home Depot earnings (before open)
→ EPS forecast: $3.42
→ Miss = consumer fear = BTC down ✅
→ Beat = risk-on = BTC relief bounce
Wednesday May 20 🔴🔴 CRITICAL:
→ FOMC Minutes — 18:00 GMT
→ Hawkish = dollar up = BTC down ✅
→ NVIDIA earnings after close
→ NVIDIA miss = risk-off = BTC down ✅
→ NVIDIA beat = risk-on = stop risk ⚠️
Thursday May 21:
→ Walmart earnings
→ Jobless Claims
→ Rising claims = recession =
risk-off = BTC pressure ✅
⚠️ NVIDIA WARNING:
Wednesday after close — NVIDIA reports.
If they beat massively →
risk-on surge could squeeze shorts.
Consider reducing position
before Wednesday 21:00 GMT.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌍 TODAY'S MARKET SNAPSHOT:
₿ Bitcoin: $76,777 ↓ (2-week lows)
🛢️ Brent: $110.86 ↑ (resilient)
🥇 Gold: $4,540 (stuck)
📊 Dow Mini: 49,668 (flat)
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1620 (dollar strong)
Bitcoin is the weakest
major asset this week.
-4.4% while oil holds.
Divergence = telling signal.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ THIS IS A SHORT-TERM TRADE ONLY
Long-term Bitcoin bull thesis intact.
Institutional adoption is real.
$80,000 floor will return.
This trade exploits:
→ Short-term macro headwinds
→ ETF outflow momentum
→ Technical breakdown pattern
Manage risk carefully.
NVIDIA Wednesday = wildcard.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals
on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯
⚠️ Educational purposes only.
Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏 Short 
US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) Weekly TF 2025
📊 Chart Context
Current Yield: \~4.50%
Current Structure: Consolidation below major Fibonacci resistance, with multiple breakout and breakdown paths marked by confluence zones.
📉 Key Technical Observations
Bullish Scenario – Yield Rally (Rate Hike Cycle / Inflation Surprise)
TP1 (5.0%): 0.00% Fib level, psychological resistance.
TP2 (6.10%): 38.2% Fib + -27% extension zone.
TP3 (7.70%–7.91%): Major Fib confluence (-61.8% & 48.60% projection)
Bearish Scenario – Yield Drop (Rate Cuts / Recession)
Support 1 (3.91%): 23.6% Fib retracement, key structural demand.
Support 2 (3.22%): 38.2% retracement
Support 3 (2.74%): 48.6%
Support 4 (2.12%): 61.8%
Support 5 (1.33%): 78.6%
Forecast Scenarios (Based on Arrow Colors & Pathways):
Red Boxes & Zones: Critical Resistance / Reaction Zones
These are strong confluence levels that may trigger pullbacks before continuation.
Green Arrows – Bullish Projection with Pullbacks
Scenario A: Price may rally toward the 5.0% TP1 zone but experience a temporary pullback before continuing toward the 6.10% TP2 zone.
Scenario B: After a short-term correction near 6.10%, if bullish momentum sustains, yield may spike toward the 7.70–7.91% TP3 zone.
These movements reflect a stair-step advance with corrective legs between key levels — bullish macro outlook with intermittent risk events.
Pink Arrows – Bearish Pullbacks & Correction Phases:
Scenario A: Initial rejection from current zone (~4.5%) may send yields down to the 3.91% support confluence.
Scenario B: If support at 3.91% fails, yields may further retrace to 3.22% or 2.74%, activating the lower fib retracement zones.
After stabilizing in these zones, a rebound may begin and realign with the broader bullish structure.
These pink arrows suggest that even in bullish macro cycles, the market may correct deeply before resuming its ascent.
Macro & Fundamental Context:
1.Fed Pivot Dynamics: With inflation cooling and unemployment ticking higher, markets price in possible Fed rate cuts by late 2025.
2.Bond Demand Outlook: Recession fears and de-risking scenarios trigger massive flows into long-term Treasuries, pulling yields lower.
3.Global Liquidity Conditions: Lower yields = increased liquidity = favorable conditions for crypto, gold, and risk assets.
4.Hawkish Risk: Any oil shock or CPI surprise can pause or reverse easing expectations, pushing yields up.
Effects on Gold & Crypto (as scenarios play out):
↗ If US10Y Yields RISE to 6% or 7.7% (TP2/TP3)
* Gold: Likely to suffer due to rising real yields; institutional demand weakens.
* Crypto: Bearish; risk assets sell off amid higher opportunity cost and tighter liquidity.
* Dollar (DXY): May strengthen, applying more pressure on gold & crypto.
* Strategy: Favor defensive positioning. Look for shorting rallies or hedge exposures in BTC, ETH, and high-beta alts.
↘ If US10Y Yields FALL toward 3.2% to 2.1% (Support 2–4):
* Gold: Bullish. Lower yields reduce holding costs and boost safe-haven appeal.
* Crypto: Bullish. Liquidity rotation into high-risk assets often follows easing cycles.
* DXY: Likely to weaken, further supporting BTC and altcoins.
* Strategy: Look to accumulate crypto during dips. Gold may offer breakout opportunities.
Rangebound Near 4.5% (Current Zone):
* Gold: Mixed; capped upside until clear direction emerges.
* Crypto: Ranges or whipsaws. Watch for breakout signals from BTC.D and TOTAL3.
* Strategy: Stay cautious. Monitor DXY and macro events for confirmation.
Related Reference Charts
TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap Weekly
BTC.D – Bitcoin Dominance Weekly
Long
Long
Yen Step Back, Two Steps ForwardDespite sharp inflation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left YCC unchanged on March 10th. This was Haruhiko Kuroda’s last meeting as BOJ Governor. Japan is still struggling to stoke growth at risk of sustained stagflation. Hence, his decision to leave rates intact was no surprise.
Kuroda left the YCC unchanged. Analysts expected him to scrap the YCC so that the new incoming governor, Kazuo Ueda could start afresh. Hopes of change are now expected at the next BOJ policy meeting on April 27th.
Kuroda leaves behind a mixed legacy. His strong monetary stimulus lifted the Japanese economy out of deflation at the cost of hurting bank profits with ultra-low rates. Growth has remained tepid.
Kuroda has been a source of stability. More than what was needed in the staid land of the rising sun. Now, the monetary policy landscape is expected to shift as Ueda takes charge.
New BOJ leadership and an aggressive US Fed will create near term weakness in JPY followed by medium term strength.
This case study analyses a two staged positioning in CME Japanese Yen Futures to harness yield from anticipated currency moves.
Change of Guard at the BOJ
Under the new governor, definitive shifts are afoot. Inflation in Japan is non-negative. Really? Yes. Not only non-negative but also at levels unseen in 43 years.
Kuroda may not have radically transformed Japanese economy, but he managed to revive its equity market. The risk of uncertainty and volatility exists once he leaves the office.
Markets are used to perennial Japanese low inflation, and to a consistent central bank leadership. Both are now going or gone.
Another big shift is BOJ's more definitive independence. While separate from Government of Japan, BOJ was seen as being an integral part of Abenomics to snap out of deflation. The Kishida-Ueda relationship is different.
Prime Minister Kishida has not outlined a particular direction on macroeconomic policy. Politically, the LDP is far from united, not least on fiscal and monetary policies. Kishida’s base of support within the party is fragile, and his approval ratings have been in a prolonged slump.
As a BOJ governor, Ueda comes from an unconventional background. He is the first academic to assume leadership of BOJ. He has not managed a large organization. He is knowledgeable about monetary policy and is a protege of Stanley Fisher.
What, then, can we expect from Ueda? He is not convinced that inflation is sticky. Ueda maintains that “…inflation is led by cost-push factors” and “it will still take time to achieve sustainable inflation.” It does hint that he isn't someone who will make any sudden major moves.
That said, in a parliamentary hearing earlier this month, Ueda hinted that the current YCC was unlikely to survive. Engaging the market is essential he said before adding that “in some cases, adding a surprise factor is unavoidable.”
There is growing evidence emerging from the annual “shunto” (a big wage negotiation between unions and employers) that workers are asking for the largest raise in base pay in 25 years.
Some Japanese employers have already raised wages sharply higher with case in point being Fast Retailing (a Japanese listed firm and parent company of Uniqlo) which raised pay by 40% earlier this year.
Until now, it has been possible to attribute Japan’s inflation to the rise in the cost of imports driven by weak yen. Big wage increases would change that.
However, the latest data, published Tuesday, shows that wage growth is not rising as fast as expected. In cash terms, it reached the highest level in decades last year, but the January figure was far lower. Real wages adjusted for inflation have been falling the most since 2009.
Balancing growth while keeping inflation under control is not a small feat.
Next BOJ policy meeting is more than a month away. Meanwhile, the US Fed is becoming more hawkish in its fight against domestic inflation. Another rate hike by the US Fed will further weaken the fragile Yen.
The US macro environment is making an already complicated situation even more difficult. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank along with closure of Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank is testing the Fed’s wit. US Inflation continues to remain hot and three times the Fed’s target. With the liquidity backstop in place, the Fed is likely to jack up its rate by another 25 basis points when it meets on March 22nd. CME’s FedWatch tool pegs the likelihood of that happening at 82% as of March 14th.
Against that backdrop, Ueda could do one of the three once in office – (1) further widen the 10-year JGB interest rate band, (2) target shorter term yields & thereby reduce JGB holdings, and (3) abandon yield targeting altogether.
Options Markets are Bullish JPY/USD
Options on CME’s Japanese Yen futures have an overall Put/Call ratio of 0.56 across all expiries, indicating that investors are expecting the Yen to weaken.
In sharp contrast though, options for the July contract show a deviation from the trend with a Put/Call ratio of 2.6x. This coincides with the release of the 2nd Outlook Report by the BOJ after Ueda takes over, indicating the market expectation on Yen’s reversal versus USD starting July.
How much more JGB can BOJ keep buying to sustain YCC? Can this last?
Last December, the BOJ tweaked its YCC policy, to allow the 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) yield to move 50 basis points (bps) on either side of its 0% target, wider than the previous 25 bps band. The move stunned markets as BOJ hinted at monetary tightening after having stuck to its ultra-loose policy stance for a long time.
YCC tweak spilled over into January as BOJ was forced to purchase a record $182B of JGB to defend its higher yield cap from breaching the ceiling of 0.50%. The BOJ now holds more than 50% of JGB, making the situation ever more unsustainable. Adding to the JGB burden, BOJ also owns the majority of domestically listed exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Besides massive JGB purchases, the BOJ remodeled in January a funds-supply operation into a tool to prevent yields from rising rapidly.
Beyond the current short-term loans, the BOJ amended the rules to offer funds extending up to 10 years with variable rates. In January, BOJ provided loans of 3T Yen in the January offer before extending the terms of the loan to 10-year for subsequent loans. In February, BOJ tweaked the fund-supply policy terms, including the quadrupling of minimum lending fee from 0.25%-1%, to limit the short-selling of JGB’s, this indicates that the BOJ is having to use all tools at their disposal in order to defend JGB yields from rising above their defined cap.
The BOJ defended yet another attack on the YCC again in February prompting a further $2.2B of JGB purchases to keep yields from breaching the ceiling.
Economists anticipate that Ueda will fundamentally revisit YCC before BOJ lands in crisis.
Ueda starts on April 9th. It is unlikely that he will make any radical moves instantly.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell is going all guns blazing to tame inflation down. Jobs data released last Friday showed the creation of 311,000 jobs smashing expectations of 225,000 jobs indicating a tight labor market. A strong labor market risks fueling a wage-inflation spiral, leaving the Fed with no choice but to jack up rates further.
Two Stage Trade Setup to Gain from Near Term Weakness & Medium-Term Strength
CME’s Japanese Yen Futures provides investors an exposure of 12.5 million Japanese Yen for every lot with the price quoted in USD per JPY increment. Every 0.0000005 change in JPY provides an increment of $6.25 in contract value.
With the USD expected to strengthen in the near-term, JPY will weaken until the next policy meeting on April 27th. As such a short position using CME Japanese Yen futures expiring in June (6JM2023) would provide a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.6x.
Stage 1
Entry: 0.0075390
Target Level: 0.0074550
Stop Level: 0.0076670
Profit at Target: $1,050
Loss at Stop: $1,725
Reward-to-Risk: 0.6x
Stage 2
Thereafter, if Ueda starts to steer Japan’s monetary policy stance differently, JPY will start to strengthen in the medium term.
Following from a short position in the near term, a subsequent long position in CME’s Japanese Yen futures will allow the investor to gain from the strengthening JPY.
Entry: 0.0074550
Target Level: 0.0081445
Stop Level: 0.0072775
Profit at Target: $8,620
Loss at Stop: $2,220
Reward-to-Risk: 3.88x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk.
These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement. 
Long
Is WTI Crude Set to ReboundIn this week’s case study, we analyse a long position on Micro WTI Crude Futures (February) with a potential target of $82.30/barrel and a stop loss at $67/barrel, yielding a reward to risk ratio of 1.15.
Last week, we delivered a case study with a short position on WTI Crude Oil futures with entry at $77.80/barrel and exit at $73.65/barrel. This worked as planned with the target price being triggered within two days.
Now with price trading at $74.10/barrel and strong support between $67-$72/barrel, this case study argues that this presents an interesting opportunity to enter into a long position in WTI Crude Oil futures.
Bolstered by demand from China which is expected to recover, a long position in Crude Oil Futures provides us hedge in the medium-long term against limited downside risk.
Replenishment of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (S PR)
The Biden administration is reported to replenish its S PR between the price range of $67-$72/barrel. WTI Crude is currently trading in that price range which could trigger S PR replenishment.
More than 200 million barrels has been drawn down to supplement the demand for US crude oil amid high international prices. However, it is worth noting that according to the US Department of Energy, there are no active purchase offers yet.
China Easing COVID Curbs
Last week, China announced the most significant relaxation of its COVID curbs since the pandemic first erupted three years ago. Rules covering quarantine times, movement of people, and lockdown as well as testing were eased in the country. Nevertheless, COVID cases in China remain high. Although official numbers have fallen to a monthly low, straining medical infrastructure points to high level of infected cases.
China is the second largest consumer of Crude Oil in the world, although they have largely been buying Russian Crude Oil at a discount, as demand increases, it will likely spill over into purchases of international oil as well impacting prices of Crude Oil.
Fed Rate Decision
All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due on December 14th. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% probability of a 50-bps (0.5%) rate hike at this meeting, slowing from the record 75-bps rate hikes announced at previous four meetings.
Over the past two weeks, economic data points to limited impact of Fed rate hikes leading to fears that the Fed may continue with 75-bps rate hike.
Tanker Delays
Over the past week, several tankers carrying Russian crude oil were halted at the Turkish strait due to confusion surrounding the G7’s imposed sanctions on Russian crude tanker insuranc e.
As of Monday, this jam started to be cleared. However according to a Bloomberg report, some 12 tankers had still not submitted the necessary documents confirming insu rance liabilities. As these delays might take more time to resolve, this might positively impact demand for WTI Crude Oil.
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
The US Energy Information Administration (E IA) released its short-term energy outlook last week in which they stated that refinery utilization for 2023 was expected to remain at a five-year high.
Although this will lead to lower prices for distillate and other petroleum products, it ensures high demand for WTI Crude leading to a strong price support.
Technical Signals from the COT Report
WTI Crude is currently trading at $70.67/barrel, which is right below its S1 support according to the Pivot indicator which stands at $71.48/barrel. The range of $67-72 provides strong support as mentioned before. Both RSI and Stochastic indicators point to oversold which could indicate a recovery in the short term.
In the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from December 6th, we can see that money moved out of swap positions to directional positions. Long positions held by managed money increased sharply by 11.9%.
Overall long position OI increased by 4.4%. Still, this was on par with the increase in short position OI which also increased by 4.4%. Short OI saw producer positions increase far more than long OI.
Trade Setup
CME’s NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude oil. They have a maintenance margin of $750 at the time of writing and provide a cost-efficient way of getting exposures to the movements in Crude Oil prices.
Long Position on CME NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures – February 2023 Contract
Entry: $74.10/barrel
Take Profit Target 1: $85.00/barrel
Take Profit Target 2: $82.30/barrel
Stop Loss: $67.00/barrel
Establishing a long position on Micro WTI Futures (February) with an entry price of $74.10/barrel with a potential take profit target of $82.3 could provide exposure to a recovery in a WTI crude prices. This would yield 109.3% returns or $820.
A stop loss at $67.0/barrel could protect against a further downward move. This is placed at the lower end of the expected range of S PR replenishment which is expected to provide strong support. The stop loss, if triggered, would lead to a loss of $710 or 94.6%, providing a reward risk ratio of 1.15. Alternatively, holding the position until the second target of $85/barrel would yield $1,090 in profit or 145.3%.
CME’s full-size NYMEX WTI futures provide exposure to 1,000 barrels of WTI crude with a maintenance margin of $7,300 at the time of writing and provide improved liquidity in case of larger positions.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk.
These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement. 
Long
Still Waters Run Deep - Bitcoin Set To Go Bullish?BACKGROUND
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in decline for the past year with price crashing as much as 20% on a single day in June. Still, the low set of $17,750 on 18 June (Saturday & hence unseen on CME chart) has turned out to be a resilient support level.
BITCOIN PRICES RESILIENT RELATIVE TO S&P500 (SPX) and NASDAQ-100 (NDX)
NDX and SPX with which BTC is generally correlated have both set new lows since June while BTC has been traded within the same range (of $18k - $20k). This again shows remarkable price resilience. Analysis from market experts points to significant deleveraging within the crypto industry and hence the perception that crypto prices might have bottomed out.
SHRINKING IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Thirty-day forward implied volatility is at record low. Low premiums to acquire call options to secure outsized gains from price break-out is seen on non-traditional crypto derivatives exchanges. Call-put ratio of 2.09 on Deribit points to 2.09 calls for every 1 put, underscoring the bullishness in BTC. However, call-put ratio on CME is 0.362 at the time of this writing.
BULLISH ONCHAIN SIGNALS
Turning our attention to on-chain analysis, we notice that Long Term Holders GLASSNODE:BTC_ACTIVE1Y (those who held BTC for at least 12 months) now represent nearly two-thirds of total BTC supply. This again points to further selling pressure being limited.
BULLISH TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Talking of technicals, BTC/USD is showing a falling wedge formation, suggesting the possibility of a breakout.
BTC has retested its June support at DXY local maximum. As the USD is the primary base currency against which BTC is traded, the value of the Dollar strongly impacts BTC price. The DXY has been rallying all year with an unprecedented rate hiking cycle. However, the DXY has started to show a broadening ascending wedge formation, signaling the softening of rate hiking cycle. The CME FedWatch tool currently suggests three more rate hikes are likely by 22nd March 2023. Anticipation is that each of these upcoming hikes will be incrementally lower relative to the last four outsized rate rises.
TRADE SET-UP
CME’s Bitcoin futures for December are currently discounted relative to spot at the time of this writing, offering investors an opportunity for a long position - amid a macroeconomic backdrop which poses a significant threat to risk assets such as BTC. With that backdrop, an entry around $20,770 with a stop loss at $17.7k (the June low) might provide a compelling trade set-up. Profit could be taken at previous bear market rally highs of $22.7k and $25k delivering a risk reward ratio of 1.38 and 0.63, respectively.
CASE STUDY WITH 1 LOT OF CME Micro Bitcoin Futures
One lot CME Micro Bitcoin Futures provides exposure to 0.10 BTC. CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring January 2023 requires a maintenance margin of USD 528 per lot.
Entry at $20,770 and take profit at $22,700 would result in $193 in profits with a return on capital of 36.5%. However, if the trade turns sour triggering a stop-loss at $17,700, it would lead to a loss of $307 amounting to a loss of 58%.
Investors must take note that when prices plunge sharply, stop-losses might be triggered at levels way below the set levels inflating realised losses.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk.
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Gold trade idea, base on US calendar data printWeekly gold analysis
📌 Key points and overview:
Technical view, can range between 1730$ and 1764$
Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold.
📝 Fundamental Analysis:
After the sharp rise of gold, last week we saw the correction of gold in the range of 1730 dollars.
The correction was due to lower-than-expected inflation data for the United States.
But after that, the re-decline of the US dollar and the retreat of US bond yields helped gold to move slightly higher and reach the $1,760 range.
But for this week.
In incoming week all economic data from the US are expected to be lower than the previous value.
it makes the retail traders inclined to sell the dollar, and therefore in the short term we will see the growth of gold, but we have to wait for the result of the actual data.
Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold.
CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that markets have priced in a 70% chance of a 50bp FED rate hike in December.
As a result, good economic data will have less impact on the rise of the dollar, while bad economic data can severely downward pressure for the US dollar.
📉 Technical view:
From a technical point of view, gold was able to establish itself above the range of $1730. It can range between 1730$ and 1764$
Also, the price is currently trading above the moving average of 200, which shows that the bullish bias stays intact.
1705$ and 1734$-1730$ are important support levels.
1760$ and 1780$ are important resistance.
📰 Important calendar events:
ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, JOB OPENINGS, HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS and ISM PMI
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish labor market data for the month of November.
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to decline by 39,000 following growth of 239,000 in October.
A print of less than 200,000 will likely weigh on the US dollar and push gold higher.
A disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Thursday could signal a smaller interest rate hike for the Federal Reserve.
If the market has such an assessment, it will reduce the yield of US bonds, which is extremely beneficial for the rise of gold.
On Thursday, the ISM Institute will release the manufacturing PMI data for November. The PMI is expected to drop to 49.8 from 50.2 in October.
If the ISM PMI report shows that price pressures ease in November, the US dollar may come under selling pressure. And in this scenario, gold prices can rise in short-term reactions Short 
As policies continue to diverge…For readers who have been following us right from our first ever TradingView idea, you’ll recall our first ever trade idea on long USDCNH. It’s been a fun 5 months writing and sharing our thoughts with the community.
Much has happened since April, but two critical things stayed the same. The US Federal Reserve remains hawkish, raising rates, while the PBoC remains dovish, continuing with its easing stance. The result? USDCNH trading beyond the 6.9 level, surpassing both our target levels.
With the next Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we think it’s time to review this idea again. The CME FedWatch Tool allows us to gauge what market participants are expecting the Fed to do. The prevalent consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to raise rates till the end of the year before holding rates at the 3.75 – 4.00 % level for the next year.
On the other hand, the PBoC has continued to ease, cutting reserve requirement ratios & lowering its medium-term lending facility. With China still battling Covid via lockdowns, persistently low inflation numbers, and weak economic numbers, we see further easing on the cards from PBoC.
Looking at the charts, the USDCNH pair has just completed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. After breaking out to the upside and a brief pull-back, prices continued upwards with strong momentum. Using classical charting techniques, the target levels for the breakout can be set to the distance of the high and low of the symmetrical triangle and applied to the top of the triangle. With the target price of 7.1180, there is still upside for this trade.
It seems that policy divergence will remain for these two major economies, which is likely to strengthen the USD and weaken the CNH further, driving up the USDCNH pair. Using technical to identify target levels where we will be comfortable, we think that there is room for more upside.
Entry at 6.9500, stop at 6.8545. Target at 7.1180.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com 
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