Alisabbaghi

Gold trade idea, base on US calendar data print

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OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Weekly gold analysis

📌 Key points and overview:
Technical view, can range between 1730$ and 1764$
Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold.


📝 Fundamental Analysis:

After the sharp rise of gold, last week we saw the correction of gold in the range of 1730 dollars.
The correction was due to lower-than-expected inflation data for the United States.
But after that, the re-decline of the US dollar and the retreat of US bond yields helped gold to move slightly higher and reach the $1,760 range.

But for this week.
In incoming week all economic data from the US are expected to be lower than the previous value.
it makes the retail traders inclined to sell the dollar, and therefore in the short term we will see the growth of gold, but we have to wait for the result of the actual data.
Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold.
CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that markets have priced in a 70% chance of a 50bp FED rate hike in December.
As a result, good economic data will have less impact on the rise of the dollar, while bad economic data can severely downward pressure for the US dollar.


📉 Technical view:
From a technical point of view, gold was able to establish itself above the range of $1730. It can range between 1730$ and 1764$
Also, the price is currently trading above the moving average of 200, which shows that the bullish bias stays intact.
1705$ and 1734$-1730$ are important support levels.
1760$ and 1780$ are important resistance.

📰 Important calendar events:
ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, JOB OPENINGS, HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS and ISM PMI

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish labor market data for the month of November.
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to decline by 39,000 following growth of 239,000 in October.
A print of less than 200,000 will likely weigh on the US dollar and push gold higher.
A disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Thursday could signal a smaller interest rate hike for the Federal Reserve.
If the market has such an assessment, it will reduce the yield of US bonds, which is extremely beneficial for the rise of gold.
On Thursday, the ISM Institute will release the manufacturing PMI data for November. The PMI is expected to drop to 49.8 from 50.2 in October.
If the ISM PMI report shows that price pressures ease in November, the US dollar may come under selling pressure. And in this scenario, gold prices can rise in short-term reactions