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MU - TA confirming transition to secular growth story?For the past year, Micron executives have been making the case that the memory industry is transitioning from a cyclical industry with booms and busts to a secular growth industry with the massive demand for memory in the cloud, artificial intelligence, self driving cars and IOT ramping and reshaping the compute needs of the future. It is a nice story and one MU would obviously benefit from crafting, but is it true? It seems over the past year that Wall Street has been hot and cold on Micron, which has seen high volatility during this period. This price action tells me not everyone is on board with the secular growth transition thesis offered by Micron management. What I'm seeing in the chart is showing me management's thesis is about to be proved. How can I make such a claim? The answer is Elliot Wave analysis. the MU chart is a textbook example of a flat correction signaling the end of the previous cycle and the continuation of a cycle of higher degree. Simply put, MU will rally strongly higher for an extended period of time. Yes there will be minor corrections along the way, but an entry here could make for an excellent long-term investment of 2 - 5+ years. Now, I direct your attention to the MU Chart and compare it with the "textbook" Elliot Wave flat correction. As you can see, the wave count, direction and magnitude of the subwaves is almost a perfect fit for a flat correction. The question now is what type of flat is MU exiting? So far, it seems like a running flat as the tops were pretty close to each other ($1.15 or 1.8%) and wave v that just finished, is almost the same as the first C wave down ($0.23 or 0.51%). The strong move up from the recent low indicates that wave 1 of the next, 5-wave up move is begining. To confirm this, MU needs to break the downtrend resistance line I have drawn in purple. The danger here, is that if it fails, it could form a lower-low creating a regular flat / expanded flat pattern, invalidating the recent up-move as the start of wave 1. Either way, MU is poised to confirm the next up-trend. It's a matter of getting the entry correct. If it does break the resistance to the up-side, the last 5-wave growth cycle lasted 665 days, which gives a target for the next series of motive, or growth waves. Further, the next move up, will be wave 3 of the next cycle degree, indicating that MU may enjoy mostly steady growth for the next 3.5 to 5+ years as the third though fifth waves complete. To me, this signals the end of the cyclical era of the stock with the severe long-term volatility and a more sustainable growth pattern.
NASDAQ:MULong
by Bullish_Harambe
11
US 30 Bear Flag near breakdown of complex ZigZag ABC PatternFor months I have struggled to make Elliott wave theory fit this Bear Flag rising channel but although 5 wave impulses appear within the channel, it is not itself a motive impulse, but rather, it is a complex, 7 or 9 multi-wave zig-zag flat corrective pattern "A-B-C". It also contains WXY components which we recently observed press index under 25000, as well as countertrend ABCDE reactionary 5 part wave and many other minuette and subminuette patterns, omitted here for clarity. I have read other wave theorists charts and the common approach seems to be trying to impose a 5 wave motive impulse pattern onto this chart, which simply doesn't fit. It won't fit, because the market is not in a primary motive impulse; it is in a large-scale primary flat correction, which is countertrend to the previous bullish trend. The entier channel we've been riding since April is the B wave. It's near termination now; this is a Bear Flag continuation pattern expected to move down again. Once I recognized this, the reactionary corrective wave patterns fit perfectly with no fudging required. Notice the respect for Fibo and channel limits in these waves. The two flashcrashes we had 2 + 15 August have created a new formation in chart: the rising wedge, another ominous pattern to go with a Bearish Gartley (see link) and bearish divergence in the indices and also within this index. The flat, or Zig-Zag correction, is a lateral movement initiated by a powerful, panic-style A wave, which we saw in February, followed by a lengthy, complex, oscillating sine-wave B that carries index nearly to or equal to the prior high. In US 30 we see current price on 8/20 resting on the trendline, and also reaching back on a perfect parallel to a nearly .786 Fibo with 26 Feb reactionary high coming off the primary A wave. All this bodes ill, because: Once the B wave completes at/near the price of origin, a steep, sharp C wave carries the index back down to the low price at bottom of the A wave. So after months of churning you end up right back where you started - twice. This is a vicious and malicious beast of a market. Do not fall into the Bull Trap on 8/21 they will surely try to bull it up once more. NB: Sand P has been within 10 pts of Jan high already. This is very near completion at current prices, maybe one more bullish attempt to breakout higher. Until I saw this and the Gartley I was bullish last week, now I am onboard with The_Unwind, and others preparing for big break. NB: If the bullish mood is strong enough, it is possible to create the expanded flat, in which B wave carries ABOVE the origin price, possibly to new all time high, before breaking down again off the double top. Please read my prior posts to see the Gartley with perfect Fibo ratios, virtually identical to Bitcoin before that broke. As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
1
SPY, heads or tails?Dear all, thanks for reading this post. Lets get right to it. In my last post (SPY is playing Fibonacci Pinball) I noted that the market was difficult to read and was giving no clear signs as to its direction. This was b/c we had seen multiple higher lows (w/ decreased volume on each higher low which was a bullish sign) and higher highs in the ascending channel we were in. This channel has now broke, this is not a complete surprise to me as we are still in a corrective mode and I expect this market to dip. Also note that a red volume symbol at the bottom the the chart indicates that we have witnessed an uptick on volume during a dip, a reversal of the previous pattern. Per the two small rectangular shaded regions we see that over the past three weeks the .786 & .618 Fibonacci lines have served as very accurate support/ resistance lines a total of 10 times! Going forward I anticipate we will break more support lines. Even if the pennant we are currently in demarcated with red trend lines breaks to the upside I still believe we will head down eventually. In the grand scheme, beyond the scope of this chart remember we are still in a 5 wave impulsive bullish set up that will likely take SPY much higher in 2019 than the 2018 highs. Once the .236 support in our current bearish set up breaks, and I'm anticipating it will before this correction runs its course, we may be nearing completion of the correction and it will be probably be time for a bullish re-orientation. This is because we are most probably in a flat corrective wave (one of three types of corrective waves according to Elliot Wave analysis) which means that the C wave, completing the A-B-C corrective structure may run its course in a similar spot to the A wave, demarcated with a orange line with an arrow in the graph. By the same token in a flat corrective wave, wave B terminates near the origin of wave A, again demarcated with a orange line with an arrow in the graph. I am also leaning towards this hypothesis b/c of all the abnormal strength we have seen during this correction and SPYs tendency to rocket after touching the upper 250s. I will not wait for lower prices only to watch the market head up and lose a good buying opportunity. My two cents, I welcome all questions, comments, and criticism.
AMEX:SPY
by TNasr
3-3-5?Ive considered many times that the all time high of $44 may have been wave 3 , however there is also the possibility that we are now in wave C of a flat correction. I would like to quote from the Elliot Wave principle book " Since the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient downward force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction, not surprisingly, seems to inherit this lack of countertrend pressure and terminates near the start of wave A" . As some other MJ stocks have done more zigzag patterns ,WEED did not. To me it seems to be fitting the shape of the flat correction as we see here. This is how i interpret the possible outcome nothing is set to scale.
TSX:WEED
by edwinv89
GoldCoin/USD (Goldcoin Token) Bye BUY GoldCoin ShortsGoldCoin/USD (Goldcoin Token) 05/12/18, 7:25 PM EST, by Michael Mansfield. Hi trader friends, I iope your weekend is a fun or fulfilling one! With practically all of the volume occuring on the up bars since the late March low, another good sized up move is in the cards onces this corrective wave is complete. Moreover, a with the large bullish volume on the up waves, a big down move is statistically less likely right now. But, we deal in probabilities not certainties, so it's still a possibility if the up move off the February low was was only a large corrective wave. But that certainly looks less likely now. Either way, uncertainty is why we always recommend the use of stop loss orders, not "HODLING" forever, in these digital markets. CLARITY: Without candlestick wicks, the price moves and waves look very clear to me: The January to late March decline was corrective. Conversely, the up move since the late March low looks very much like a bullish impulsive wave (uptrend, not up retracement). CORRECTIVE WAVE: This current correction is either a triangle, soon to be over, or a zigzag with one more wave lower to the Wave IV label. BUY CONFIRMATION: If 0.30 is exceeded on the upside, then the next upwave, Wave V, or Wave 3 of larger degree Wave (3) to the upside, will likely be underway. CONCLUSION: Once this short-term corrective Wave IV is complete, hopefully after one more push lower, then a Wave 5 up, or possibly 3 of (3) to the upside is likely. NEGATED: Should GoldCoin/USD break below 0.19, then this bullish outlook would be cancelled and GoldCoin/USD would likely fall back to below the March 2018 low. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield CIO
GLong
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
1
Bitcoin(BTC) update : Ongoing flat correctionYesterday BTC price is seems like change to downtrend, but I think it's a part of correction and BTC is in a ongoing flat pattern. As you see in the chart, BTC can move to target $9300 point that touched before in correction (A) wave. At $ 9300 point the price will move upwards with the support of long-term downward trend line(a red dotted line). After this correction has complete, BTC can move to $14000, but this price trip may not be so kind. I indicated two areas where delays are expected to occur (# 1, # 2). In these two areas, # 1 can be breached more easily than #2, but in # 2, BTC can be take deep correction and turn into a downtrend. So, when BTC has reached zone # 2, we will have to watch BTC price changes carefully. Separately, I added a green area to the chart. This green area is a timeline where altcoins are expected to make meaningful price changes. I expect that altcoins will show an upward trend in this timeline.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by goyapro
AUD/CHF sellI bought this earlier on and closed it when I didn't like it. Achf would probably be a better sell option than Cadchf. It seems like it made a false breakout and wants to drive down, could possibly make a flat. Don't overload with commodity currencies though. Been in and out of them as they are in consolidation. We are waiting on news right now. FOMC...Cad news will be tomorrow and Friday. I will post GU again. That is a very interesting pair for today when you consider fundamentals and everything.
Short
by thillygoosth
EUR/AUD buyEA did make a long flat here as I was saying, broke out and made a 1 hr flag. It could potentially go up a lot. But you have to consider the probability of retracement and I personally will not be placing my stop under the low but be careful and I will only give it enough room for a wave 2 % retrace and will be manually trailing. It can potentially become a sell and extend down but as of now my analysis will have to be for a flat correction and continuation of 5 wave until something changes. Trading flats is risky, especially when they break the high like that because of the possibilities of what can happen, but I am EA buy again.
Long
by thillygoosth
Eur/AudLOL. EA looks like it did a big flat pattern. This freaking pair. GA just trapped sellers and is moving up. My audchf buy just turned into a sell setup on 1hr. Aud got weak tonight, but I think it would be better to catch EA off a flag though and see it do some kind of correction on 1 hr if you want to buy this breakout to make sure, because it did break the high and the aud could turn bullish, but may not. I am going to focus more on USD since that's what's paying me. Aud pairs are only getting on my nerves. I will let my good trades ride and look to FMOC tomorrow.
by thillygoosth