June FOMC Minutes Highlights: - FOMC Minutes: Fed Officials Divided on Rate Path Amid Uncertain Economic Outlook -FOMC Minutes: Members Said Prudent to Wait for More Labor Market Data, Brexit Vote Before Raising Rates -FOMC Minutes: Prior to Brexit Vote, Staff Saw Uncertainty Holding Down Investment in U.K. -FOMC Minutes: Members Judged It Appropriate to...
1. IMO Dudley tipped to the dovish side, especially on key inflation highlighting that it is " rising again, but still low". Other rhetoric reaffirmed much of what has been said post the brexit vote e.g. Uncertainty being the biggest factor. 2. Meanwhile, Williams was notably more upbeat/ optimistic, shrugging off the US's shock miss NFP report to instead...
Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, weekly and H1 NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU...
Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, H1 and weekly NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU...
Short AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to...
Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...
GBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU...
We had the best possible outcome for FOMC's Rate decision and Fed Yellens speech which was neutral IMO as expected, with the Economic Projections being dovish, downgrading the projected rate hike cycle. We now look to BOJ. Trading strategy: LONG USDJPY (possibly short also GBPJPY for longer term investors or investors that want to hedge against a hawkish...
The best Idea to play BOJ and FOMC from a risk-averse perspective is to own both in a Long Straddle Strategy Dynamic Straddle: Long USDJPY & Short GBPJPY - TP from volatility & Event likely hoods TP levels = cannot be greedy else you may miss one trades exit point so <25 pips when it goes in your direction for each - total TP = 50pips as 2*25pips Reasoning...
Gold is now pausing its recent uptrend before FOMC statement and interest rate decision to be released. Orders above or below the highlighted triangle are favored.
Amid FOMC and BREXIT, We may see high volatility. Its very evident that weak dollar pushed Euro from the bottom of the channel towards steep climb. I see more weak dollar on DXY weekly chart which opens the Possiblity of EURUSD topping towards 1.16 and 1.17 in extension. New bull above may test SMA100
We bottomed out at 105.5. It time for breakout from descending triangle and hit top of daily chart.
We don't know whether Fed is going to raise or hold today but only thing we are looking for is to buy some Australian Dollar ( AUD/USD ) and New Zealand Dollar ( NZD/USD ). One of our AUD/USD trade laid out here is in progress and after taking half position off at 0.7075 yesterday, we will be either totally offload some more if it touches 0.7400 today and will be...
A break of the counter trend line that has formed on AUD/USD could lead to a downside continuation to make new lows. The move also has the possibility to offer a decent risk reward as well. Targets would be 0.71571 and then on to 0.69609 . Could this be a look into the future for this market ahead of the FOMC tomorrow? Only time will tell.
We have an aggressive long entry here in USDSGD, I copied the rally from April 29th, 2015, since it matches the current prices very well to illustrate what is possible here. There was a downtrend which has expired and we're above weekly support, so we can expect higher prices soon. In the 4h chart we can observe a potential uptrend forming, so it's potentially a...
Addendum to previous chart. 1281- 1285 provides huge supply. Break of rising wedge can lead gold towards around 0.5 fib 1235 retrace. Dovish News can provide more strength to pull gold towards 1300 region. We can see huge commercial short covering if retrace do not happen and this might fuel bull run even more. IR hike can trigger fall towards 1150. If not then...
BUY USDJPY @106.5 or @107.0 - SL @105 - TP @109-11 based on: $YEN's historical most important support level - The 105.5 Key level will more than likely hold as it has many times before - At 105.5 there are 3 significant UNSUCCESSFUL tests of the level over the last 3 years thus it is a great entry point. Also another plus is if you look at the monthly chart...