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FOMC

EUR/USD Could Skyrocket if They Cut 50bps!The market is certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during tomorrow's meeting, with a small chance of a 50 bps reduction priced in. Two Fed policymakers, Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman , may be thinking of this FOMC meeting as an audition to take over the Fed Chair from Jerome Powell, which means they might push for a 50 bps cut tomorrow to impress President Trump (who thinks interest rates are 300 basis points too high at the moment). Additionally, Trump stooge Stephen Mirin was added to the voting Fed board yesterday, just in time to push for an outsized interest rate cut. This speculation is likely contributing to the recent rise in EUR/USD. Today’s movement has taken the pair above the prior yearly high at 1.1829, which was set in late July. This breakout signals the potential continuation of the bullish trend, with the next possible resistance coming into focus at the double swing highs from August 2021, around 1.1900.
by BlackBull Markets
1
Dovish Spells or Hawkish Surprises? FOMC Prep for ES, NQ, GCLet’s start with the biggest event this week. Unless, of course, some unexpected headline swoops in and steals the spotlight — because markets love a good plot twist. Emotions are running high, and volatility is flying around like confetti at a surprise party nobody asked for. But don’t worry, Chair Powell might just play the role of the calm voice in the chaos. Markets are pricing in a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed this week. Interestingly, the future path of rate cut expectations has been in the doldrums. Is it a bird or a plane? No, it’s Superman. Likewise here, is it 1 cut or 2 cuts? No, it’s 3 cuts priced at this moment until the end of 2025. Excuse the humor, but what fun is it if you cannot entertain yourself while analyzing the complexities of markets day in and day out. Execution is boring; risk management is much like dementors sucking out life force when risk is not respected. And analyzing and preparation is where the creativity and fun is. And as Kurt Angle would say, it is “ True ”. Index futures including ES futures and NQ futures have all climbed steadily higher since September 2 low. Markets are turning higher in anticipation of a new bull run. Gold futures are rallying, currently trading above $3700. Since the Jackson Hole dovish pivot, gold has not looked back and has rocketed higher above major resistance. Our focus is on the Fed meeting. All eyes will be on the forward guidance; risks to inflation, risks for the labor market and FED’s SEP (Summary of Economic Projections). This also includes GDP forecasts and the most anticipated Dot Plot. Which of the two mandates will the Fed prioritize, labor market weakness or sticky inflation? The interesting thing to note is that despite sticky inflation, markets are anticipating 3 cuts of 25 bps for each of the meetings this year. Thus far, as we have previously mentioned, the Fed will likely be moving away from their 2% inflation target to an average inflation target in the range of 2% to 3%. This also implies that real rates i.e., nominal less inflation are going to fall sharply lower. Given this, we anticipate gold to continue higher as the US Dollar's purchasing power erodes away, with mounting debt, higher inflation and falling real yields. The real question we should be asking is: What if the meeting outcome is hawkish with the Fed delivering just 1 cut in the September meeting and staying on hold for the remainder of the year? What other risks are there that could pull stocks and indexes lower? And bonds higher? Tariffs at this point seem like an old talk unless something reinvigorates and puts them on the front and center of market worries. Based on these thoughts, here are our scenarios: Base Case: 25 bps cuts and dovish guidance but iterates meeting by meeting approach. ES & NQ: Data dependent Fed, that is likely behind the curve and markets may translate this as Fed too slow to react to emerging risks, risks of recession goes higher. In this case, although stocks may push higher with rates coming down initially, in our view, much of this is priced in and this may be ‘sell the fact moment’. Portfolio adjustment: Sell index futures, Buy Gold and Bonds. Ultra-Dovish: Fed’s dot plot confirms 2 additional rate cuts of 25 bps for Oct and Dec meeting and further 4 cuts till end of 2026 to bring terminal rate lower to 250-275. USD weakens further, real rates sink, reinforcing gold bid. Portfolio adjustment: Buy everything. Buy the dip. Hawkish Surprise Only 25 bps in September, then pause ES & NQ: • Sharp pullback as equities reprice for tighter liquidity. • ES could retrace recent gains, downside risk toward 4,900–5,000 zone. • NQ likely hit harder due to tech sensitivity to discount rate. GC: • Short-term correction as USD firms and yields spike. • However, downside may be limited if market shifts focus back to debt & long-term inflation risks. Risk-Off External Shock- Geopolitical event, tariffs ES & NQ: • Drop as risk sentiment sours; defensives outperform growth. • Bonds rally, yields fall, curve steepens if Fed cut expectations accelerate. GC: • Strong safe-haven bid, spikes higher regardless of Fed stance. Comment with your thoughts and let us know how you see the markets shaping up this week
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
2
BTC: All eyes on 116,814.5 into the FOMC__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling below the 116.6–116.8k supply zone, keeping the higher-timeframe uptrend intact but capped by the daily pivot at 116,814.5. With the FOMC ahead, volumes remain normal, favoring “break & hold” confirmation over anticipation. Momentum: Mild bullish bias 📈 but capped under 116,814.5 → high-range 115.0–116.8k. Key levels: - Resistances : 116,600–116,814.5 (D/4H pivot), 117,600–118,000 (local liquidity), 124,277.5 (major D pivot). - Supports : 115,100–114,900 (1H/30m), 114,447.7–113,421 (4H/12H confluence), 111,965.8 (weekly pivot). Volumes: Normal across TFs; a volume spike is needed to validate the 116.8k breakout. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H Up (MTFTI filter), 6H/4H/2H NEUTRAL BUY with stair-step structure; notable exception: 1D Dashboard at STRONG SELL, tempering extensions. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE (slight risk-off tilt) — this contradicts the tactical bullish momentum, so demand robust breakout confirmation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: primary uptrend intact but locked by 116,814.5; favor confirmed breakouts and clean retests. Global bias: Neutral-bullish while 113,421 holds; key invalidation on a close < 113,421 (HTF). Opportunities: - Breakout long: Buy a break & hold > 116,814.5 (≥2 closes 4H/12H), target 117.6–118.0k then 120k. - Buy the dip: Tactical bids at 115,100–114,900 with tight stop below 114,447.7, targeting 116.2 then 116.8k. - Tactical sell: Fade 116.6–116.8k if 115.1k/114,447.7 breaks, target 113.42k. Risk zones / invalidations: - A loss of 113,421 unlocks 111,97k and invalidates the bullish bias. - Failed hold above 116,814.5 (fast rejection) = bull trap risk; wait for a “break & hold”. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC: 25 bp cut expected; Powell’s guidance/dot plot will steer risk. - Softer USD, record gold and strong equities = conditional tailwind. - Elevated post-Fed whipsaw risk; avoid impulsive entries. Action plan: - Plan A (Breakout long) : Entry 116.9–116.4k (retest), Stop 114.9k, TP1 117.6–118.0k, TP2 120k, TP3 124,277.5, R/R ~1.8–2.5x. - Plan B (Buy the dip) : Entry 115.10–114.90k, Stop 114.40k, TP1 116.20k, TP2 116.80k, TP3 117.6–118.0k, R/R ~1.5–2.0x. - Plan C (Tactical sell) : Entry on 116.6–116.8k rejection confirmed by a 115.1k break, Stop > 116,814.5, TP1 114.45k, TP2 113.42k, TP3 111.97k, R/R ~1.8–2.2x. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher TFs remain constructive but constrained by a single overhead pivot, while tactical TFs lean bullish provided a confirmed breakout. 1D/12H: Up with higher highs/lows; 116,814.5 is the decision pivot. Holding above unlocks 118–120k; below it, high-range 114.9–116.8k persists. 6H/4H/2H: NEUTRAL BUY; stair-step advance with bids near 114.4–115.1k. The Dashboard (4H = STRONG BUY) supports a clean breakout if volumes expand. 1H/30m: NEUTRAL; compression 115.1–116.0k with supply 115.6–115.9k. Validation requires > 116.20k then > 116,814.5. 15m: NEUTRAL BUY; micro higher lows but intraday cap intact. Key confluence: single 116,814.5 resistance + normal volumes → need a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is FOMC-driven (cut expected) with a softer USD and record gold aiding risk, yet event risk is elevated. Macro events: A 25 bp cut is widely anticipated; Powell/dot plot to guide risk. DXY pullback and equity momentum are tailwinds; whipsaw risk post-Fed remains high. Bitcoin analysis: Price compressed under ~116.8–118k; 115k acts as intraday pivot. The 114.45–113.42k cluster is critical; losing it invites 111.97k. On-chain data: Spot/ETFs flows tempered; derivatives more influential with moderate leverage — a durable breakout needs spot volume and multi-bar holds above 116.8k. Expected impact: A dovish Fed improves odds of a break & hold > 116,814.5; a hawkish tilt risks a slide toward 114.45–113.42k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is in a high-range under a single daily pivot, with an intact uptrend but macro headwinds. - Overall trend: neutral-bullish while 113,421 holds; a clean break of 116,814.5 is needed to target 118–120k. - Top setup: confirmed breakout > 116,814.5 with a successful retest and rising volume. - Macro factor: FOMC ahead; softer USD and record gold support risk but heighten whipsaw potential. Stay patient: wait for “break & hold” or buy the manageable dip — discipline around major pivots is key.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Crude Oil Eyes 4-Month Consolidation BreakoutOil prices have been consolidating within a triangle formation since the June 2025 high, which was triggered by the Israel–Iran escalation. Price action has traced a sequence of lower highs and higher lows, holding above the critical $61 support. With five legs unfolding inside the triangle, a potential bullish breakout could take shape if the price holds above $64, opening the door toward: $66.80, $67.70, and $70.20, which aligns with the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel from 2022 A confirmed break above $70.20 could shift the long-term trend, transitioning from consolidation to a potential bullish reversal. From the downside: Failure to hold above $61 could see a retest of the 2025 lows, with key support levels at: $60.20, $59.20, $58.00. Key events: • FOMC meeting – Wednesday • Ukraine-Russia refinery attacks • Demand vs OPEC unwinds Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
Gold hits record highs ahead of FOMC! Tech SetupGold reached fresh all-time highs near $3690 ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Its rally reflects a perfect storm of Fed dovishness and geopolitical tensions, but technical divergences suggest positioning carefully ahead of Powell's decision. The 100% Fib extension and double divergence setup makes any hawkish surprise particularly dangerous for leveraged longs. CATALYSTS DRIVING THE RALLY: Fed rate cut fully priced in (25bps expected, some 50bps speculation) US-China tensions escalate (Nvidia antitrust accusations) Stephen Miron confirmed to Fed Board of Governors (dovish member) Dollar weakness supporting precious metals Surprising correlation: Nasdaq & S&P 500 also hit records alongside gold TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance : $3,700 - Key psychological level $3,750 - Next major target $3,800 - Extended upside if dovish Support : $3,660 - First support for entries $3,610 - Major support level Previous swing lows - Stop loss reference WARNINGS: Double divergence on 4H & 1H timeframes 100% Fibonacci extension reached RSI overbought conditions Momentum diverging from price action FOMC SCENARIOS: Bullish Case : Dovish 25bps + accommodative guidance → Target $3,750-$3,800 Risk Case : Hawkish surprise or even neutral tone → Profit-taking toward $3,600-$3,500 KEY RISKS: Powell emphasising inflation persistence Resistance to aggressive cutting cycle Hawkish dot plot projections Any break below $3,660 signals deeper correction potential This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 16, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Pre-Fed jitters: Traders square positions one day before Wednesday’s 🚩 FOMC decision + Powell presser. 💻 Mega-cap flows: Post-Apple launch chatter and AI sector sentiment keep AMEX:XLK leadership in play. 🛢️ Energy watch: Crude swings remain a headline driver for inflation hedges and $XLE. 💵 Dollar steady: FX tone reflects markets bracing for Fed clarity mid-week. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Aug) ⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Jul) ⏰ 10:00 AM — NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #RetailSales #Fed #Powell #economy #Dollar #bonds #oil #AAPL #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to attempt the lower red box, and if held a move upside would be available into the box above. This move worked well for traders and the entry came exactly from our Excalibur red box. We then ideally wanted the higher box to give us a RIP, however, as you can see price broke above first on our indicators and then on the box shared with everyone else. Hence invalidating the short trade and activating the long which was then shared in our updates through the week. We managed to trade between the boxes and of course Excalibur our trusted algo again performed with the pin point target levels. A decent week in Camelot, not only on Gold, but on the other instruments we trade and analyse as well. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? I would expect Monday and early Tuesday to be the main days for movement before FOMC this week which may bring volume, but initial thoughts are we’re priced in! For that reason, we’ll share this report and say it’s applicable until Wednesday, which is when we will share the KOG Report for FOMC. We have support below at the 3620-12 region which is a big range and will need to be monitored if attacked early in the week. If this level holds, an opportunity to long may be available to trades targeting the all time high again and most likely beyond in attempt for the 3700 region. It’s that region we would like to monitor again for a possible short, unless we break below the 3610 level. The path shows the possible route, a move downside, then up where there are 3 levels to monitor, and a potential move downside in our opinion. It is as usual, subject to change and will be updated if through the week. For now, we’re still stretched with sentiment near neutral, we need to complete the swing upside with the key level of support being the 3606-10 level in extension. If we break below there, we have a clean reversal and what bears will want, is to see the low 3500’s at least! This level could be a possibility on Wednesdays FOMC, so stay tuned!! In summary: We want to see this move down commence so longs are with caution for us at the moment with the hope that one of these resistance levels can give us a major RIP. We need to monitor this carefully and will be implementing a scalp only strategy upside for now. KOG’s Bias of the week: Bullish above 3610 with targets above 3655, 3667, 3671 and above that 3686 Bearish on break of 3610 with targets below 3605, 3597, 3580, 3565 and below that 3540 RED BOX TARGETS: Break above 3645 for 3654, 3657, 3670, 3685 and 3702 in extension of the move Break below 3630 for 3620, 3610, 3605, 3597 and 3885 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
24
BTC vs 116.7k–118k: breakout or FOMC rejection?__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is pinned below the 116.2k–118k supply after rebounding from ~107k, defending the 115.16k pivot. It’s a range-to-break with elevated intraday volumes against a cautious macro backdrop. Momentum: Range with a mild bullish tilt 📈 while 115.16k holds; a clean breakout needs > 116.74k. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/12H/D) : 116.18k–116.74k · 118.0k–118.8k · 124.28k (D). - Supports (2H/4H/W) : 115.16k–115.20k · 114.16k · 111.97k. Volumes: Normal on 1D; very high on 1H/30m/15m — a catalyst for a box breakout from 115.2k–116.2k. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H = Up; 6H/4H/1H = NEUTRAL BUY above 115.16k; 2H = NEUTRAL SELL — a close above 116.74k adds upside conviction; losing 114.16k reopens 111.97k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE — a slight risk-off stance that contradicts the tactical bullish momentum; demand confirmations and smaller size. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic context: Higher-timeframe uptrend (12H/1D) but facing a tight 116.2k–118k supply wall — favor staged execution and confirmed breakouts. Global bias: Slight long bias while 115.16k holds; higher-timeframe invalidation on a clean daily close < 111.97k. Opportunities: - Long on breakout: Close/retest held > 116.74k aiming 118k/120k. - Tactical “buy-the-dip”: Reclaim of 115.20k after a sweep, stop below 114.16k. - Tactical short: Rejection at 116.7k–118k OR 30m/1H breakdown < 114.75k targeting 114.16k then 111.97k. Risk zones / invalidations: - Break below 114.16k invalidates intraday longs and opens 111.97k. - Strong reclaim > 116.40k–116.74k invalidates rejection shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC: 25 bps cut widely expected; dot-plot and presser = volatility triggers; “sell-the-news” risk. - US Retail Sales (pre-Fed): could tilt the box breakout. - Softer China data: growth headwind; keeps risk appetite uneven. Action plan: - Long Plan : Entry 115.30–115.90 (reclaim/breakout) · Stop 114.16 · TP1 116.18 · TP2 116.74 · TP3 118.00 · R/R ≈ 1.5–3.0. - Short Plan : Entry 116.10–116.70 (rejection) or < 114.75 (breakdown) · Stop 116.90–117.00 (rejection) / 115.17 (breakdown) · TP1 115.16 · TP2 114.16 · TP3 111.97 · R/R ≈ 1.5–2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes lean up, but the supply band at 116.2k–118k caps momentum. 1D/12H: Uptrend, compressing below 116.7k; a daily close > 118k would open 120k. 6H/4H/1H: Active range 115.16k ↔ 116.18/116.74k; buy-the-dip works above 115.16k if volumes confirm; intraday is whip-prone. 2H/30m/15m: 115.16k is the hinge; very high volumes create wicks — wait for clean retests; ISPD/MTFTI favor scalps while 115.16k is defended. Key divergence: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = NEUTRE VENTE vs MTFTI Up — keep size modest and demand follow-through post-break. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ FOMC is the key macro catalyst in a hesitant risk-on regime, while on-chain/flows remain more subdued than euphoric phases. Macro events: 25 bps cut expected; dot-plot and Powell Q&A as triggers; “sell-the-news” possible. US Retail Sales can pre-position flows; softer China data is a growth headwind. Bitcoin analysis: Pressing the upper band (116.4k) and 116.7k–118k supply; a clean close above 118k opens >120k; a decisive loss of 115k reopens 114.16k → 111.97k. On-chain data: ETF flows declining, derivatives more influential; range 110k–116k — sustained holds above 114k attract flows; below 108k raises HTF downside risk. Expected impact: Macro/on-chain mix argues for “confirmation first, size second”; it supports a cautious bias until > 116.74k breaks with volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling just below 116.7k–118k into FOMC week. - Trend: Higher-timeframe bullish but capped; slight risk-off background (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = NEUTRE VENTE). - Prime setup: Confirmed breakout > 116.74k (retest held) toward 118k/120k; alternatively, a break < 114.16k puts 111.97k back in play. - Macro: FOMC is well priced — first move can be a head fake. Stay disciplined: seek confirmations and retests, scale in tranches, and let the market show persistence. ⚖️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
15/09/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $116,672.39 Last weeks low: $110,615.91 Midpoint: $113,644.15 It's FOMC week and finally the time has come for the FED to cut interest rates, but by how much? Currently the probability of a cut is 100%. The chance of a 25bps cut is ~90%, a 50bps cut ~12%. Therefore I believe a 25bps cut is priced in and expected by the majority, a 50bps cut would be bullish and no change would be devastating to the markets in the short term. Last week BTC continues its move up and flipped the important S/R level of $114,000 in preparation for FOMC. Ultimately the bulls should now target a flip of $117,500 to continue the larger bullrun move. Should the bulls fail to do so the rangebound environment looks to continue with the low being $106,000 (1D 200 EMA). As I have mentioned in previous post September often gives poor returns, so far this year BTC is up 6% from month open, perhaps in anticipation for the rate cut to come? I don't see many setups presenting themselves until after Thursday so just being patient until then. Good luck this week everybody!
by ProR35
Will steady Fed cut expectations fuel gold’s rise? Persistent Fed rate cut expectations and lingering geopolitical risks are sustaining demand for safe-haven assets. Initial jobless claims rose to 260k last week, the highest in four years, while August CPI showed little sign of tariff-driven inflation. With labor market weakness reaffirmed and tariff-related price pressures proving milder than feared, Fed cut expectations remain elevated. Morgan Stanley revised its outlook, now projecting four consecutive cuts from this month through the January FOMC. XAUUSD is holding near the 3650 high, maintaining its uptrend. The widening gap between both EMAs indicates the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If XAUUSD breaks above the 3650 resistance, the price could rise further toward 3700. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks below the 3580 support, the price may retreat toward 3500.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by inkicho_exness
NAS100 - Stock market awaits Federal Reserve meeting!The indicator is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the drawn upward trajectory is maintained, I can expect the future to continue as it has in the past. In case of a valid breakdown, its downward path is to the specified range, which can be approached with a reward for buying. Last week’s economic data painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. On the one hand, new jobless claims rose to 263,000, above the market forecast of 235,000, signaling labor market weakness. On the other hand, the August inflation report came in hotter than expected, though most of the increase stemmed from housing costs rather than tariff pressures. Rents rose 0.34%, marking the fastest gain since December 2024, while shelter costs climbed 0.39%, the sharpest jump since January 2025. Still, real-time housing indicators suggest that prices are adjusting, which will likely be reflected in official data in the coming months. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell below 4% for the first time since April—a sign that markets are reacting more to labor market weakness and the prospect of Fed rate cuts than to inflation concerns. CIBC, analyzing the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, stated that while the data came in slightly above expectations, it was not strong enough to dissuade the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from delivering a 25-basis-point cut next week. Ali Jafari, an economist at the bank, wrote: “There was little in the report to prevent a September rate cut. More importantly, the labor market needs support, and a weaker jobs market implies softer demand-side inflationary pressures ahead.” On a yearly basis, core inflation held steady at 3.1%, while headline inflation rose two-tenths to 2.9%, both in line with forecasts. More troubling, however, are signs that price increases are spreading into new sectors. The report noted: “Tariff pass-through effects intensified this month, with core goods prices rising at the fastest pace since broad tariffs were imposed. Today’s report also showed the first notable increase in new car prices, suggesting that tariff impacts may now be extending to higher-ticket items, though overall car price gains remain modest.” CIBC expects the Fed to cut rates in September and October, pause afterward, and then deliver two additional cuts in the first half of next year. The bank added: “The overall U.S. inflation picture remains notably above target, but the Fed is willing to tolerate this for now, given growing concerns about a weakening economy and a labor market showing signs of fatigue.” Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump once again criticized the Fed in an interview with Fox News, saying the central bank “always acts late on interest rates.” He added: “We have the best stock market in history. Inflation has come down, equities are climbing, so rates should be lower.” These comments come as the Fed is widely expected to cut rates at Wednesday’s meeting. While such a move could reduce borrowing costs in the short term, analysts caution that lower short-term rates do not necessarily translate into lower long-term yields. Morgan Stanley now projects that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining meetings this year—an upgrade from earlier forecasts of only September and December cuts. The bank also expects three additional 25-basis-point cuts in January, April, and July of 2026. At the same time, Standard Chartered has revised its outlook and now anticipates a 50-basis-point cut in September—double its previous forecast. The shift followed weak August jobs data showing employment growth had slowed sharply and unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since late 2020. The bank described labor market conditions as “dramatic,” noting that in just six weeks the market shifted from “strong” to “weak.” It characterized the larger cut as a form of “catch-up” to align monetary policy with economic realities. This week is set to be pivotal for global markets, with a series of central bank decisions and key economic releases. Monday will see the Empire State manufacturing index, followed by Tuesday’s August retail sales report. On Wednesday, housing starts and building permits will be released, along with the Bank of Canada’s rate decision. The highlight of the week, however, will be the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell’s press conference. On Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its policy decision, followed by U.S. jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. The busy week will conclude Friday with the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
ES — Week Ahead (Sep 15–19) — Fundamentals & Key Risk WindowsMacro focus: FOMC (Wed 2:00/2:30 pm ET), plus Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, and LEI. Calendar (ET): Tue 9/16 • Retail Sales (Aug) 8:30 — Census schedule confirms Sep 16, 8:30 am release. • Industrial Production (Aug) 9:15 — G.17 release calendar shows Sep 16 at 9:15 am. • NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) 10:00 — NAHB schedule sets Sep 16, 10:00 am. • FOMC (Day 1) begins — Fed calendar. Wed 9/17 • Housing Starts/Permits (Aug) 8:30 — Census/HUD note next report Sep 17, 8:30 am. • FOMC Statement 2:00 / Powell 2:30 — Fed event calendar. Thu 9/18 • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 — DOL weekly; last print 263k (spike tied to TX/fraud anomalies). • Philly Fed (MBOS) 8:30 — 3rd Thu schedule. • Conference Board LEI 10:00 — next release Sep 18, 10:00 am. Fri 9/19 • State Employment (Aug) 10:00 — BLS schedule. • (FYI for next week: Existing Home Sales (Aug) Tue Sep 23, 10:00 am.) Context to watch: • Markets widely expect a 25 bp cut at the Sep 16–17 FOMC; path/“dots” and Powell’s tone matter more than the cut size. • Michigan sentiment (prelim) fell to 55.4 with inflation expectations elevated (1-yr 4.8%, 5-yr 3.9%). Tomorrow (Mon 9/15) — Trade Plan Kill-zones (ET): NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00. News risk: NAHB 10:00 (size down or wait 2–3m around print) Long from support 6586 → TP1 6600 • 15m trigger: Rejection at 6586 (close ≥ 6587 after testing ≤ 6585). • 5m confirm: Higher-low + close ≥ 6588. • 1m entry: First retest that closes back above 6587. • Hard SL: 15m wick low − 0.25–0.50. • TP1: 6600 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE). • TP2 (runner): 6606.25. Short from resistance 6600 → TP1 6586 • 15m trigger: Rejection at 6600 (close < 6596.5 after probing ≥ 6598.5). • 5m confirm: Lower-high + close < 6596.0. • 1m entry: First retest that closes back below 6596.5. • Hard SL: 15m wick high + 0.25–0.50. • TP1: 6586 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE). • TP2 (runner): 6581.50. Weekly plan—how fundamentals change our timing • Tue AM (Retail Sales 8:30 / IP 9:15 / HMI 10:00): Expect a more directional NY AM; trade level→level but avoid first prints by ±3–5m. • Wed (FOMC 2:00/2:30): Treat NY PM as the main event; no positions carried into 1:55–2:35 unless already at TP1 with runner @ BE. • Thu (Claims/Philly/LEI): 8:30–10:00 stack can create a trend morning; trade acceptance if a 15m body prints through a level.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 15 → Sept 19, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 15 → Sept 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🌐 Global central bank ripple: ECB’s Thursday decision sets tone for USD and cross-asset flows into Fed week. 📉 Positioning tight: After CPI/PPI last week, funds are leaning light into Wednesday’s Fed — volatility risk high. 🍏 Mega-cap overhang: Apple supply chain chatter + tech sector leadership in focus post-launch event. 💵 Dollar + oil watch: Stronger dollar and stubborn crude prices remain headline risk for equities. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Tue 9/16 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Aug) Wed 9/17 ⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Policy Decision + SEP (dot plot) ⏰ 🚩 2:30 PM — Powell Press Conference Thu 9/18 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Powell #Fed #RetailSales #jobs #economy #bonds #Dollar #oil #AAPL #megacaps
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
The countdown is on for the most anticipated Fed decision The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.00–4.25, with 105 of 107 economists surveyed by Reuters forecasting that outcome. Still, the decision may not be unanimous. Some Committee members are not fully aligned on a September cut. Fed’s Goolsbee and Schmid could dissent in favour of leaving rates unchanged. There is also a possibility of a larger move. If the U.S. Senate confirms Stephen Miran’s nomination to the Fed Board on Monday, he could be sworn in just in time for the meeting, and some speculate he may vote for a 50bps cut. Governors Bowman and Waller, who have previously dissented dovishly, may also support a larger reduction.
by BlackBull Markets
Is Crypto About To Explode: New Highs? The total crypto market cap is retesting $4 trillion. We are now looking much more bullish on a technical basis across Ethereum & Bitcoin. We may have had a failed breakdown in the Total Crypto market cap, which could provide the additional liquidity for another surge. Recapturing Key Daily 7 & 20 MA's is a very positive sign. Although still being net short BTC & ETH - I now have breakeven stop losses in place. Ethereum chart is looking very explosive like it could have a move to $5500 ETH recently has defended a massive volume shelf which is a very bullish sign. Keep on your radar: BMNR / SBET / MSTR / COIN / MARA
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Trading-Capital
GU, UJ & Gold: Calm Before the Storm | Fed, BoJ, BoE AheadThe markets have been stuck in ranges for weeks, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and Gold all moving sideways. In this video, I share a clear perspective on why that’s happening and what could finally trigger a breakout. Here’s what you’ll gain: ✅A simple breakdown of the range structures on GBPUSD, USDJPY, and Gold. ✅The key economic events next week that could shake the market (Fed, BoJ, BoE, UK CPI & labour data). ✅Likely breakout scenarios and the triggers to watch. ✅How to avoid getting trapped while the price is still consolidating. This is the “calm before the storm” phase, and knowing how to position yourself ahead of it could make all the difference. 👉 Drop a comment with the pair you’re watching most closely. Trade smart, trade consciously. Disclaimer: Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice, always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
by darcsherry
BTC: 114.2k–116k Decision Zone into CPI__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating just below 114k after reclaiming 112k–112.5k, sitting in a 113.5k–114.5k decision zone. Intraday drives higher, while HTF remains cautious into CPI. Momentum: Tactical bullish 📈 — higher highs/lows on 4H→1H, but capped below 114.2k–116k. Key levels: • Resistances (4H/1H): 114.2k–114.6k | (6H/12H): 115.5k–116.0k | (12H): 117.0k • Supports (2H): 113.0k–113.2k | (W/4H): 111.9k–112.3k | (4H): 110.8k Volumes: Normal on 1D/12H, Moderate on 4H/2H, Very high on 1H/30m/15m during impulses. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H MTFTI Up but broader caution; 4H/2H/1H in NEUTRE ACHAT with rising volumes; short‑term divergence as 12H is still hesitant. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE — a mild risk‑off backdrop that contradicts intraday momentum; watch for a flip to NEUTRE ACHAT to validate continuation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Approach: favor continuation buys on breakout with quick invalidations while HTF remains mixed. Global bias: Tactical NEUTRE ACHAT above 113.6k; swing invalidation if 111.9k then 110.8k break. Opportunities: • Breakout buy: 2H/4H close > 114.6k → aim 115.6k then 117k; stop 113.6k. • Pullback buy: 112.2k–112.3k with absorption/volume → 114.6k / 115.8k / 117k; stop 111.5k. • Tactical sell: failure below 114.3k + close < 113.0k → 111.9k then 110.8k; stop 113.6k. Risk zones / invalidations: Repeated rejection below 114.3k followed by a 113.6k loss opens 112k; losing 111.9k then 110.8k invalidates the tactical bullish bias. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • US CPI Thursday: benign print supports a 114.6k break; hot CPI favors a fade under 114.3k. • US labor softening: bolsters rate‑cut odds (tailwind if CPI undershoots). • Pro‑crypto policy tone (SEC/HK): marginally improves regime if levels confirm. Action plan: • Entry: 114.65k (2H/4H close) / Stop: 113.60k / TP1: 115.60k, TP2: 117.00k, TP3: 118.50k • Approx R/R: ~1.5R to TP1, ~3R to TP2; scale size if volumes stay Very high and Risk On / Risk Off Indicator flips ≥ NEUTRE ACHAT. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Intraday risk‑on, HTF cautious: continuation is possible but needs regime confirmation. 1D/12H: MTFTI Up, yet backdrop “NEUTRE VENTE”; bounded between 111.9k–110.8k base and 114.2k–116k cap; daily HH above 113.5k needs confirmation. 6H: Ascending sequence from 110.8k; resistances 114.2k–114.6k then 115.5k–116k; pullback 112.2k–112.3k is attractive if volume confirms. 4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: NEUTRE ACHAT with rising volumes; breakout > 114.6k is primary setup; key divergence: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator still NEUTRE VENTE outside 15m → wait for confirmation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is the referee: CPI and weak labor frame risk, while on‑chain/crypto flows are constructive but demand confirmation. Macro events: CPI in focus (moderate consensus); very weak US labor supports rate‑cut narrative; selective global risk‑on (Japan ATH, China recovery); pro‑crypto policy signals (SEC/HK) add a marginal tailwind. Bitcoin analysis: Daily trend reclaimed >113.5k; immediate resistance 114.2k; acceptance >117k would open 124.3k extension; strong alt rotation can cap BTC’s relative upside; short clusters imply squeeze risk if breakout validates. On-chain data: Accumulation 108k–116k (URPD); STH ~60% in profit = fragile neutral state; neutral funding (compression risk); slower spot ETF inflows — need a firm close >114.2k–116k to convert. Expected impact: “Cool” CPI + pro‑crypto tone backs a breakout >114.6k; “hot” CPI favors a move back to 112k/110.8k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Market at an inflection into CPI: intraday bullish, HTF cautious. - Trend: tactically bullish, but needs confirmation above 114.6k (then 117k). - Top setup: validated 2H/4H breakout > 114.6k with volume → 115.6k/117k; alternative pullback buy at 112.2k. - Key macro: CPI and weak labor steer near‑term risk‑on/off. Stay disciplined: wait for the signal or de‑risk pre‑event — invalidations are close, use them. 🚦
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin tight range below 113.24–114k, FOMC in focus__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is ranging tightly: repeated rejections below 113,24–114,0k while 111,956 support still holds. Momentum is split with 1D/12H constructive and 4H–6H still leaning lower. Momentum: range ⚖️ — bounces above 111,956 but a firm 113,24–114,0k cap stalls extensions. Key levels: • Resistances (D/12H/4H): 113.24–114.0k · 114.8k (extension) · 121–124k (HTF). • Supports (D/12H/4H): 112.2/111,956 · 110,086 · 107,026. Volumes: broadly normal to moderate; very high spikes on LTF during rejections around 113.2–113.3k. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H held (constructive), 4H–6H down (pressure at the cap), 1H/LTF counter‑trend pops. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL SELL 🟠 — slight sell bias that aligns with the ceiling at 113.24–114.0k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: as long as 113.24–114.0k caps price, favor defensive range-trading; switch to pro‑breakout only on confirmed acceptance. Global bias: overall = NEUTRAL SELL (mild) while below 113.24–114.0k; invalidated on 12H close above 113,241 with volume. Opportunities: • Defensive buy at 112.2–111,956/110,086 → aim 113.2–114.0k; stop < 110,086. • Rejection short at 113.24–114.0k → aim 112.2 then 111,956; stop > 114.3k. • Bullish breakout on 4H/12H close > 113,241 + successful retest → aim 114.8k then 121–124k; stop below 113.1 (failed retest). Risk zones / invalidations: • Break below 110,086 ⚠️ re‑opens 107,026 and invalidates range longs. • “Fake breaks” above 113,241 without volume expansion → trap risk. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • FOMC in focus (high odds of a rate cut) → potential volatility around pivots. • Firm USD → headwind for risk assets, capping BTC near resistance. • Asian risk tone constructive (Nikkei record) + adoption (BBVA custody, KuCoin Pay) → medium‑term structural support. Action plan: • Defensive Long: Entry 112.2–111,956 | Stop < 110,086 | TP1 113.2 | TP2 114.0k | TP3 114.8k | R/R ~1.5–2.0R. • Rejection Short: Entry 113.24–114.0k | Stop > 114.3k | TP1 112.2 | TP2 111,956 | TP3 110,086 | R/R ~1.3–1.8R. • Breakout Long: Entry on 4H/12H close > 113,241 + retest | Stop < 113.1 | TP1 114.8k | TP2 116.0k | TP3 121–124k | R/R ~1.8–3.0R. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes hold structure, mid timeframes weigh on momentum, and LTFs rotate quickly near range edges. 1D/12H: constructive above 111,956, yet 113.24–114.0k is still the lid; acceptance > 113,241 would unlock 114.8k then 121–124k. 6H/4H: bearish tilt with frequent rejections below 113.2–114.0k; “normal” volumes → prefer selling range highs until 114.0k is absorbed. 2H/1H: tactical “buy the dip” while 111,956 holds, but no trend confirmation without a close > 113,241. 30m/15m: very high volume on rejections at the cap → “fake break” risk; scalping window between 112.0–113.3k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed (strong USD vs Asian risk‑on) with FOMC risk ahead; on‑chain supports a consolidation narrative with cooler TradFi flows but improving adoption. Macro events: • FOMC: rate cut expectations → directional impulse possible, but also whipsaw risk. • Strong USD: short‑term headwind for BTC, consistent with capping near resistance. • Nikkei 225 at record highs: constructive Asian risk tone partly offsets USD drag. Bitcoin analysis: • Adoption/flows: BBVA (custody via Ripple) and KuCoin Pay (on‑chain payments) support future demand; Metaplanet adds to “corporate accumulation.” • Critical zones: reclaiming 114–116k is needed to re‑ignite momentum; below 110,086 risks a 107,026 retest. On-chain data: • Accumulation between 108–116k; STH profitability ~60% → fragile without a push above 114–116k. • ETF/futures inflows cooling → limited near‑term conviction. Expected impact: • Range likely persists while 113.24–114.0k holds; upside requires a high‑volume breakout, otherwise expect rotations and traps. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is range‑bound with a credible cap at 113.24–114.0k and a defended floor at 111,956. - Trend: neutral to slightly bearish while 4H–6H remain down and 113,241 isn’t reclaimed. - Best setup: rejection shorts at 113.24–114.0k or defensive longs at 112.2–111,956 with tight risk. - Key macro: FOMC ahead, with a firm USD acting as a near‑term brake. Stay nimble: trade the edges, and only chase breaks backed by volume. 🔔
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
08/09/25 Weekly OutlookIt's CPI week is here once again, which means we're one week before FOMC and a likely interest rate cut by the FED, maybe the last week of choppy sideways action before the next leg up in Q4? Last week BTC stopped just shy of the weekly high before settling around midpoint. Bullish structure throughout the week from start to finish reclaiming much of the losses from the week previous to that. As I have pointed out in the past late August & early September have historically poor returns and so far this year has followed the trend, down -13.6% from the highs of mid August. All of this is to say the stars seem to be aligning once again for a repeat of previous cycles, a slow and negative August into September, print a local bottom and the next leg up/continuation higher in Q4 boosted by cheaper borrowing. There is even a growing chance of a 50bps cut on September 17th which would really fuel a risk-on surge going into the end of the year. For this week I'm not overly concerned about CPI just because I believe the focus is on FOMC the week after. A reclaim of $113,500 before this weeks close may kickstart an earlier push by the bulls as currently that is the level keeping BTC down. $104,500 is the 1D 200 EMA, a level untested since April, A retest as support before FOMC would be a great place to go long from IMO. Until either of those scenarios play out it's just noise and chop. Good luck this week everybody!
by ProR35
BTC 112.5k Gate: Breakout or Fade the Range?__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling around 111–112k, trapped between 112.0–112.5k supply and 110.1k/107.3k supports. The setup is mixed: HTF still up, MT corrective, LTF rebounding cautiously. Momentum: 📉 Slightly bearish in intraday/MT, with defended lows but lower highs below 112.5k. Key levels: - Resistances (12H–1W): 112.0–112.5k (local supply), 115.9k (720/12H PH), 119.7k (W PH). - Supports (4H–1W): 110.1k (4H PL), 107.3k (D PL), 98.3k (W PL). Volumes: Overall normal; moderate spikes on 15m during failed breakouts. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/1W Up, 4H–12H Down, 15m–2H Up → range confirmed; 112.5k remains the pivot to unlock 113.5k/115.9k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (risk-off) — it confirms caution and caps rebounds below 112.5k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: HTF trend intact but MT corrective — stay tactical, trade the range until 112.5k breaks. Global bias: “NEUTRAL SELL” below 112.5k; cautious bias invalidated on a 1H/2H close > 112.5k. Opportunities: - Momentum buy: confirmed breakout above 112.5k → target 113.5k then 115.9k. - Range sell: fade clean rejections at 112.0–112.5k while 4H–6H remain Down. - Defensive buy: wick + reclaim at 110.1k (or 107.3k) with tight risk. Risk zones / invalidations: - Below 110.1k: opens 107.3k, then 98.3k. - Above 112.5k: risk of squeeze toward 115.9k (invalidates shorts). Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Weak US jobs → higher odds of a Fed cut (risk-on if FOMC guidance cooperates). - OPEC+/WTI easing → less inflation pressure, supports dovish narrative. - JPY/JGB risk and US office CMBS stress → volatility noise and “hard asset” bid. Action plan: - Plan A (bullish breakout): Entry > 112.6k (1H/2H close) / Stop < 111.6k / TP1 113.5k, TP2 115.9k, TP3 119.7k (R/R ~1:2–1:3). - Plan B (range short): Entry 112.0–112.5k on rejection / Stop > 112.8k / TP1 111.0k, TP2 110.1k, TP3 107.3k (R/R ~1:1.5–1:2.5). __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs hold the uptrend structure while MTs correct; LTFs attempt cautious recoveries below 112.5k. 1D/1W: Uptrend intact above 104k; 115.9k–119.7k is the directional cap, need strong closes to open 124.3k later. 4H/6H/12H: Corrective with lower highs; concentrated supply at 112.0–112.5k — break required to free 115.9k. 15m/30m/1H/2H: Tech rebound off ~110k; attempts to reclaim 111.8–112.2k but volume confirmation is still tentative. Key divergence: LTF bullish vs MT bearish → prioritize tactical setups (confirmed breakout or mean reversion at the edges). __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro leans dovish, while on-chain/flows are neutral to mildly supportive. Macro events: Soft US labor boosts cut odds; WTI easing on OPEC+ supply signals lowers inflation pressure; watch JPY/JGB for FX/vol shocks. Bitcoin analysis: Consolidation 104k–116k; potential supply overhang from Movie2K wallets (~45k BTC); spot ETF inflows slowing curb external momentum. On-chain data: Cooling funding, rising stablecoin supply (constructive mid-term), STH sensitive around 114k–116k. Expected impact: Dovish FOMC would ease a reclaim above 112.5k → 115.9k; hawkish tone likely sends price back to 110.1k then 107.3k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is in a “decision range” 110.1k–112.5k inside the broader 104k–116k channel. - Trend: HTF bullish, MT bearish, LTF rebounding → cautious bias below 112.5k. - Key setup: Break & hold > 112.5k to target 113.5k/115.9k; otherwise fade 112.0–112.5k. - Macro: Rising odds of a Fed cut + softer WTI favor a squeeze if the technical trigger appears. Stay disciplined: trade confirmation, not anticipation — 112.5k is the key. 🔑
by Ox_kali
BTC: 112,681 in sight, 115.3k if breakout holds__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC bounced back above the weekly pivot 111,965 after a dip below 110k and is hovering near 112.2k, still trapped inside the 104k–116k corridor. Short-term momentum is positive but capped by a 4H/6H “Pivot High.” Momentum: Bullish 📈 in the short term within a broader range; buyers defend 111,965 but meet supply at 112,681. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/6H → 1D): 112,681 (240 PH), 115,300 (720 PH), 124,277 (D PH, distant extension). - Supports (4H → 1D): 111,965 (W PH turned support), 109,905 (240 PL), 107,300 (cluster PL). Volumes: Normal on HTF; notable 1H spike during the recent push. Multi-timeframe signals: ST (15m–1H) bullish; mid TF (2H–6H) still corrective; HTF (12H–1D) constructive → bias improves if 112,681 flips to support. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (moderate risk-off) — it contradicts the intraday bounce and can cap extensions without a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The market is a “range with a bullish lean”: trade conditional entries, confirm breakouts, and keep stops tight. Global bias: Neutral Buy with key invalidation below 109,900 (loss of the 240 PL base). Opportunities: - Continuation long: break & retest of 112,681 to target 114.0k then 115.3k. - Defensive long: clean pullback holding 111,965 (1H higher low) to re-test 112,681. - Tactical short: clear rejection at 112.68–113.0k (bearish 4H candle) to 112.0k then 111.0k/109.9k. Risk zones / invalidations: - 4H–12H close below 111,965 reopens 110k then 109.9k. - A reclaim above 115,300 invalidates the mid‑TF bearish structure and unlocks 120–124k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC: September remains “live”; a cut is increasingly priced — supportive for risk if confirmed. - NFP/Unemployment: a soft print would fuel risk-on and breakout follow‑throughs. - Crypto liquidity: fresh $2B USDT mint + cross‑chain reallocations — deeper books if 112,681 breaks. Action plan: - Long (break & retest 112,681): Entry 112.70–112.85k / Stop <111.90k / TP1 114.0k, TP2 115.3k, TP3 120.0k / R:R ~1.8R to 3R. - Short (rejection 112.68–113.0k): Entry 112.7–112.9k / Stop >113.1k / TP1 112.0k, TP2 111.0k, TP3 109.9k / R:R ~1.2R to 2.5R. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ This is a “range‑recovery” alignment: ST drives, mid TFs resist, HTFs remain supportive. 1D/12H: Constructive above 111,965; a clean move through 112,681 sets up a test of 115,300 (major range ceiling). 6H/4H/2H: Still printing a “lower high” under 115.3k; 112,681 is the rotation hinge — rejections = 112.0k/111,965 retests. 1H/30m/15m: Bullish momentum with elevated 1H volumes; needs solid close/retest above 112,681 to avoid a fakeout. Key divergences/confluences: ST strength + HTF support vs Risk On / Risk Off Indicator in VENTE and mid‑TF corrective tone → prioritize confirmed flips at 112,681. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is leaning toward monetary easing while stablecoin liquidity expands — a supportive backdrop if technical levels confirm. Macro events: Fed keeps September “live” with a cut increasingly priced; a soft NFP would add risk-on fuel; oil softens and gold appetite stays firm — near‑term inflation pressure eases. Bitcoin analysis: Price ~111.5–112k with short‑squeeze risk if momentum continues; BTC spot ETF flows remain flat vs improving ETH — implying measured BTC spot demand but reactive to technical breaks. On-chain data: +$2B USDT minted and cross‑chain shifts → deeper market depth; URPD/accumulation in 108–116k matches the range; neutral funding = fragile momentum. Expected impact: A dovish follow‑through (cut pricing + soft jobs) supports the “Neutral Buy” toward 115.3k; risk‑off shocks would pressure 111,965/109,9k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Range market with a recovery bias as long as 111,965 holds and 112,681 turns into support. - Overall trend: short‑term bullish/neutral inside the 104k–116k range. - Most relevant setup: confirmed breakout above 112,681 targeting 115.3k. - One key macro factor: growing odds of a September Fed cut boost risk appetite. Stay disciplined: trade confirmation, not anticipation, and respect stops. ⚠️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Fed cut odds hit 97% ahead of Friday’s jobs report Markets are waiting for Friday’s U.S. NFP jobs report, which could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Traders want a result that supports the case for rate cuts but doesn’t raise fears of a weakening economy. The ADP private payrolls report showed 54,000 new jobs in August. Stocks moved higher on the news, as wall street saw the number as weak enough for the Fed to cut rates in September, but not so weak that it signals a recession. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is now a 97% chance the Fed will lower rates when it meets in two weeks.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by BlackBull Markets
Fade 112k, buy 109.5/108k on signals__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating mid‑range within 104k–116k after a clean rejection below the weekly pivot high (~112k). Intraday momentum tilts bearish while higher timeframes remain range‑bound. Momentum: 📉 Bearish within a range — sellers active at 111.95–112.15, defensive bids lower. Key levels: • Resistances (HTF/MTF) : 111.95–112.15 (weekly), 113.5–114.0 (MTF), 115.5 (gate before 118k/121k). • Supports (HTF/MTF) : 110.2–110.5 (MTF), 109.3–109.8 (MTF), 107.9–108.1 (HTF). Volumes: Overall normal; moderate pickup on 1H retests of range edges. Multi-timeframe signals: 2H–6H point Down; 12H–1D more neutral; LTF (15–30m) show range rebounds — consistent with selling 112k rejections and tactical buys at 109.3–109.8 / 107.9–108.1. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: SELL (mild risk‑off) — aligns with the bearish bias as long as 112k caps price. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ In a range with MTF selling pressure, favor sell‑the‑rip and defensive buys on absorption. 🎯 Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL below 112k; key invalidation on a strong close >112.5k. Opportunities: • Tactical sell : Fade 111.95–112.15 on signal; target 110.5 then 109.6. (Stop >112.5) • Defensive buy : Bid 109.3–109.8 on wick/absorption; target 111.1 then 111.9. (Stop <109.3) • Breakout buy : Only above 112.5 on confirmed retest; target 114.0 then 115.5. (Stop ≈112.0) Risk zones / invalidations: • A reclaim >112.5 invalidates the sell bias and opens 114k–116k. • A clean break <109.3 exposes 108.0 then 106.8/104k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Fed: Waller favors a cut vs Kashkari cautious; Beige Book “little change” — dovish tone would favor 112k/114k tests. • US labor: ADP/claims/ISM Services today — strong surprises can trigger a break of the 110.3–111.3 micro‑range. • Inflation mix: Oil <$60 (disinflation) but US tariff risks linger — likely keeps us ranging until 114k–116k is reclaimed. Action plan: • Short 112k rejection : Entry 111.95–112.15 / Stop 112.6 / TP1 110.5, TP2 109.6, TP3 108.0 → R/R ≈ 2.0–3.0. • Defensive long 109.5 : Entry 109.3–109.8 / Stop 109.2 / TP1 111.1, TP2 111.9, TP3 112.5 → R/R ≈ 2.0–2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs are range‑bound while MTFs (2H–6H) drift lower; LTFs attempt technical rebounds. 1D/12H: Range 104k–116k intact; 111.95–112.15 capping; 107.9–108.1 as base — below 112k, risk skew toward 110.5 then 109.5. 6H/4H/2H: Lower highs in place; prefer selling retests 111.3–111.6 and 111.95–112.15 toward 110.5/109.5. 1H/30m/15m: Micro‑range 110.3–111.3; long scalps from 110.3–110.6 with confirmation ; moderate volume pickup on edge retests. Key divergences/confluences: Mild risk‑off + MTF Down = bearish confluence below 112k; absence of extreme volume tempers squeeze risk until 114k–116k triggers. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is dovish‑but‑uncertain while on‑chain points to a digestion range — a setup favoring tactics over trends. Macro events: Fed split (Waller pro‑cut, Kashkari cautious), Beige Book steady; JOLTS down with ADP/claims/ISM due — directional volatility risk. Oil <$60 and soft Swiss CPI = disinflation, but US tariffs keep inflation risks alive. Bitcoin analysis: Broke below daily Ichimoku and retested as resistance; hesitation under a double‑top neckline; 30‑day realized vol low = uncertainty without panic. US spot ETF net inflows +$300.5M (Sept 3) with muted price response. On-chain data: Accumulation 108k–116k (URPD) and lost high cost‑basis → 104.1k–114.3k corridor; STH ~60% in profit = fragile; neutral funding and slowing ETF intake = capped momentum. Expected impact: While 112k isn’t reclaimed with volume, bias stays NEUTRAL SELL ; above 114k–116k, risk‑on resumes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ A controlled range persists with an active 112k ceiling and selective dip‑bidding lower. - Overall trend: 📉 tactical bearish within a HTF range. - Top setup: Fade 111.95–112.15 with invalidation >112.5 and targets 110.5/109.6/108.0. - Macro key: Fed‑lean dovish but labor/ISM data could swing momentum toward 112k or down to 109.5. Stay disciplined: trade the range, protect stops, and let closes above 112.5 and 114–116k speak. 🧭
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali