As the market anticipates the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, investors are keeping a close eye on key levels and stocks that may experience significant movements. In this article, we will discuss the potential scenarios for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and several prominent stocks, as well as the importance of the FOMC meeting...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of instability in the market due to the SVB crisis and other banks being heavily affected by it. 2. GOLD, as a safe haven asset, flew to the highs to 2000 and is currently rejecting. 3. This is fuelled by the instability with the USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price could potentially retrace back to the H4 support level at 1959.24...
- KRE and XLF still in a bear flag territory, Both are closing in on their tightening range and will break very soon either tomorrow or Wednesday. we will get a lot of volume and volatility once this breaks. - QQQ & SPY have a Triple top resistance, if XLF break bull SPY will very likely break that resistance, so will watching all 4 closely. - FOMC Wednesday...
In my previous post, I outlined where $SPY rejected off the bear flag resistance. You'll see that those two times correlate with the two times $VIX tested pennant support. With the third VIX retest, we may see $SPY near my gray TL of ~$400 (see related idea linked). I'm still expecting another leg down, and will take a short position if I see optimal R:R (I'll...
NZDCAD it’s very clear at this point what the Market is saying price action, so we would be buying immediately we get a retest. This trade is actually a 100% buy due to the trading confluence. The strong short-term increase of NZD/CAD should quickly allow the basic trend to become bullish. As long as the price remains above the support located at 0.8490 CAD, a...
When #Bearish meets #Bullish Looking for a run up or upwards chop based on $CS bailout and liquidity injection. VIX needs to close above golden TL for further downside, but may need to cool off. I'm watching $SPY and $VIX for ideal setups to initiate a short. No guarantees on the outlook, but I'm cautious and expecting temporarily long movement.
$UAL stock dropped due to Q1 cost and downtime headwinds, but airlines expect strong demand and Q2 profitability. I'm opening 1/3 call position, adding 2 more times if weakness continues: Strike: $45. Exp: 6/16/23 or later Cost: $3.60 per contract The cost per contract could be lower based on market movements tomorrow. I plan to swing my first 1/3 $UAL call...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. USD continues to face uncertainty and volatility due to the SVB crisis. 2. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and the Fed Fund Rate. 3. More dovish on the USD will lead to EURUSD heading higher. 4. Fed might be restricted to hike rates by 50bps due to the instability of the banking industry in the US. Technical Confluences 1. Price...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. ECB most recently hiked rates by 50bps. 2. USD continues to face uncertainty and volatility due to the SVB crisis. 3. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and the Fed Fund Rate. 4. More dovish on the USD will lead to EURUSD heading higher. Technical Confluences 1. Support level at 1.0519 where price rejected off. 2. Price can...
SELL USDJPY ENTRY: 132.25-132.30 STOP LOSS: 134.26 TAKE PROFIT: 126.82 The JPY has been one of the main beneficiaries so far from the loss of confidence in the health of the banking system. While policymakers have taken steps over the past week to address those concerns, it is not yet clear that they are sufficient on their own to quickly restore investor...
Through last week, the DXY traded with significant volatility due to not only the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse but also the slowdown in US inflation growth, with US CPI being released at 6% (Previous: 6.4%). As the downward pressure continues on the DXY, a brief retracement to the upside could be anticipated however, the 23.60 and 38.20 Fibonacci levels are...
Happy CPI day! (AUDUSD Trade idea) Hello...Another day, another trade opportunity! Today we have the CPI, I spoke about banks over the weekend and how they will become under pressure to rates increase, it's part of debt cycle - I will recommend you watch it as well research into what a debt cycle is and what assets get affected. Now, headlines bring in fear, in...
Times to be aware of: 23 March at 5 am AEDT (6 pm GMT) – Chair Powell’s press conference at 05:30 AEDT While there is much debate around this call, I still think we’re staring at the Fed delivering a 25bp hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Where the risks to the USD are skewed to the long side. It is a call that is certainly being hotly debated and while...
We closed above the decending trendline from januari 2022. Many traders are drawing this line wrong ATM to match their bias. Beware. We closed above which is very bullish but many people are saying that we closed BELOW, they try to match this scenario with 2008 and 00. It is not unlikely that we break down under the trendline again, but right now this isnt the...
TVC:DXY Thanks to SVB, Biden's comments and Fed Chair decision looming, the markets are very ODD today. This is where trade management comes into play. If you didn't check your greed at the door during NY session, then you probably got chopped around going to the big TP's Trade smart Trade well
OANDA:USDJPY Tried for a scalp to the short side ahead of Fed Meeting, didn't work out, stopped put at +1pip Now I can wait in line and buy some fancy coffee. Trade management is key. Trade smart Trade well
Rejecting down trendline, below 50 DMA and the option flow ratio for March 17th is 4:1 puts. Very strong numbers from economy today, which means the FED will have to raise rates again at some point this year. I have been following the FOMC for 6 years, take every meeting cautiously. We also have CPI numbers on the 14th. I am holding MArch 24th 61 puts at $1.15 GL!
Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP due today at 930pm GMT +8. 2. NFP print and average earnings will be key to the direction of the USD. 3. Fed Powell's speech that "Fed is prepared to speed up rate rises if warranted by data releases", resulted in strong bullish pressure on DXY and USD across markets. 4. A few US data releases has coincided nicely with Powell's...