Keep an eye on Retailers in the US. Fundamentally it doesn't feel right but technically its telling a different story. Nice consolidation off the 200 weekly ma since may Last year. Level is clear here. A convincing weekly break above $66.50 should see this move higher to at least a target of $77.50
Not looking good... there could be another leg down for XRT which would drag stocks like GME to $16.4
An imminent market crash could support this move...
A composite chart of SPY, SPX, QQQ, TQQQ, VXX, SQQQ, XRT and some other names.
imgur.com
I think the market is going down a lot in the short term and it's starting.
Hey, I think XRT is going to hold up over the next few weeks despite sweeping the lows. I think this looks like it does back in 2008/9 when it is all said and done.
AMEX:XRT
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Money-Flow, Price Action
PT: 58$
* I opened a short position by PUTS for 10/21/2022, strike 58$, 2.167$ each contract.
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
I’ve been looking at the retail sector especially since the consumer willingness to spend has been shifting to services/ experiences and entertainment.
Household cleaning, groceries, pets, alcohol, recreational vehicles all have seen drops in spend from Q1 2022 to Q2 2022
Walmart has also started laying off people and have...
... for a 2.52 debit.
Comments: Collected a total of 2.74 (See Post Below). Opted to close it out here for a .22 ($22) winner versus rolling it out for duration and credit.
... for a .74 credit.
Comments: With the 82 approaching worthless, rolling it in to the strike that cuts position net delta approximately in half. Total credits collected of 2.74.
... for a 2.00 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 91/52. Selling the 16 delta strikes on both sides. Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless/side test. 2.00 credit on buying power effect of 7.10; 28.2% ROC as a function of buying power effect; 14.1% at 50% max.
... for a 1.82 credit.
Comments: High IVR/high IV at 99.5/49.9. 1.82 credit on buying power effect of 7.37 (on margin). 24.7% ROC at max; 12.3% at 50% max.
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Bullish Stance
XRT are retail discretionary companies and right now there seems to be alot of optimism. Consumers seem to be find paying for the current rising prices of products. I think will continue with the festive period
Sep Consumer Spending has lost momentum but still grew at 1.4%
Sep Personal income was up 0.9%
Current...
In this update review the recent price action and options flow data that suggests break of the 74 level is imminent, as such we identify a high probability trade strategy and price objectives to target.
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Feels like a safe position given that the market is seeming very bullish at the moment
XRT has also broken a key resistance line and that transforms it into a solid support line
XRT are retail discretionary companies and right now there seems to be alot of optimism. Consumers seem to be find paying for the current rising prices...
A few back i posted charts of the retail sector to lead rally . We now have ended in what looks like a classic blow off top I am now moving into a PUT POSITION NOW TILL MARCH 2022 we should see a rather string move from free money to contraction just based on the new tax laws jan 1
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Market is returning to a Bullish / Ranging state
With the Evergrande dip it seems we now have room for another bullish retracement
XRT had no major reaction to Evergrade dip and is rising with the market and is now about Evergrande. Pricing at 0.50 seems decent (11% from strike) -80, 60, strike 85
XRT has the best contract...
NYSE Arca
