I forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re...
The USDJPY trades along the 133 support level and could see further downside as the DXY continues to weaken. However with the continual divergence in monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and the BoJ, a rebound to the upside is likely to always be on the cards. If the USDJPY breaks strongly below 133 (and more crucially below 132.70) the price could...
- CPI came in 5%, personally i think it was pretty much priced in due to us knowing well ahead of data release at 5.1% - PPI data tomorrow 530am EST - bank earnings pre-market Friday. - NASDAQ:QQQ & AMEX:SPY bear break, need SP:SPX to join SKILLING:NASDAQ tomorrow. - still holding my AMEX:SOXS , shorting the NASDAQ:SMH /SOXX sector
TVC:DXY My compass, my North Star, my CHEAT SHEET Dollar Index
OANDA:EURUSD I didn't take any news trade today. But if you did, these charts kept you on the right side for a quick long scalp. Trade well
AMEX:SPY gap filled yesterday really quickly, but rejected at top and bounced off gold TL in EOD flush. Expecting CPI or FOMC minutes as catalyst for downside. Note: bank ER is right after FOMC mins. Also, over $7.7B+ dark pool traded between 409.2-409.6 level; may act as S/R as this week unfolds. Position: Eyeing downside momentum - watching how the market...
Textbook flag breakout today.. Ready to sell partial on day 3-5 then trail the rest with a daily close below the 10 and 21 daily emas
- Fed minutes Wed 2pm EST - CPI Wed 530 EST - PPI Thursday 530 EST - i would be expecting us to chop into range into CPI and minutes - QQQ / SPY will be using stair stepping candles as a guide to how to trade when data is release.
(4/10/2023) Monday - I wanted to publish this chart so we can follow the effect the credit spread had on the S&P 500 (SPX). As you can see the inverted candles correlate well with the SPX. Note the candles are inverted and the SPX is not, just to show better correlation. At the time of publishing there has been a significant move in credit that supports underlying...
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is still flirting with a historically bearish level and momentum. JPOW has to come out swinging this week during the FOMC to save DXY 101/2 level. Remember, generally speaking DXY down = BTC up. In the past 30 years, the DXY was rejected along the red line (~101), signaling larger downside moves. Given the recent parabola and retreat by...
OANDA:EURUSD Asia and London gave us some great moves to start the month of April 2023. Lets see if the New Yorkers can keep this going, though I doubt it... Trade well
Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of USD news happening along the week. 2. All eyes will be on NFP. 3. At Olympus, we are forecasting payrolls to print <250k compared to 311k previous. 4. There has been multiple economic data release on the USD, highlighting the slow down of its economy and inflation. 5. ISM manufacturing PMI releasing later on in the day and...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. Core PCE Price Index at 830pm GMT+8, am anticipating a better than previous result which could potentially see further downside momentum on DXY. 2. Sentiments from the market continues to be bearish on the DXY. 3. Economic sentiments from an increase in unemployment claims and final GDP q/q printing 2.6% lower than 2.7% forecast sets the...
Throughout 2022 you would have done VERY well taking profit when the TVC:VIX hit 20 and accumulating when the VIX hit 30. But has this trend concluded? This movement and profit/accumulation opportunity is consistent with the most recent tightening from 2017 to 2018 where fed funds were rising, and the yield for 2 year treasuries in the bond market exceeded fed...
What's going on in the market? We have collected some of the most important news and events that could affect your trading in the near future. The Fed Is Becoming Not So Hawkish. Can Gold Reach the Top Price? Investors have seen the Fed as very hawkish in the past 12 months, which has looked less so in the past month. The financial sector in the US and several...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. Uncertainty continues to surround the USD 2. Fed balance sheet continues to inject money to aid the banks in crisis Technical Confluences 1. Resistance level that price is currently at can potentially be rejected before heading back down 2. Price could potentially create a new lower low 3. on the H4 timeframe, DXY is on a bearish trend...
CAD is quite stronger than the USD at the moment, even though its on an uptrend, the uptrend is appearing inside the range, lets wait for an opportunity to sell.
Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 104.3 zone. since the last FOMC USD have showed a strong bearish momentum. first of all there was a soft rate hike of 25 bps and secondly in the speech after the meeting fed Powell didn't showed any intents for further rate hikes which is considered dovish. Technically...