1st November 2023 DXY: consolidate along 106.70, above 106.90 FOMC decision push to 107.35 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5860 SL 20 TP 60 (dxy weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.63 SL 20 TP 60 (dxy strength) USDJPY: Buy 151.55 SL 20 TP 60 (watch out for possible intervention) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2130 SL 25 TP 60 (dxy strength) EURUSD: Sell 1.0545 SL 30 TP 90 (dxy strength) USDCHF: Sell...
What an insane session for USDJPY! We know the ExMo is low due to the compression we've seen, but even compared to more normalised figure, what we've seen today has broken all expectations. There are two questions going forward. The most immediate is the Dollar news we have scheduled for Nov 1st. Those being ADP at 12:15pm London (due to daylight savings)...
Looking at this pair it's been trading in a descending dynamic channel since mid-July, it makes up nearly 58% of the DXY index and so is in close negative correlation to this index. We can see the on the daily a pinbar followed by a long-wick doji, which could mean reversal, the opposite can be seen in DXY: We can now see a breakout of the channel, and the...
Since October EURUSD is in a consolidation range from 1.045 to 1.07 This range has not been broken and I think is still valid until FOMC meeting at Wednesday. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS TIME AND AVOID TRADING USD PAIRS DURING FOMC CONFERENCE MEETING
Overnight Gold approached the 3-month high of $1985, since June & July 2023. This was likely due to the - Fed chair Jerome Powell's comments which indicated that the rise in yields might lessen the need for additional rate increases. With the increasing probability of the US Federal Reserve keeping rates on hold at the November meeting, the DXY saw brief moves to...
The British pound is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2142, almost unchanged. The UK inflation report on Wednesday was a stark reminder that inflation remains stubborn and sticky. The Bank of England has raised the benchmark rate to 5.25%, but headline inflation was steady at 6.7% y/y and the core rate ticked lower to...
I think that retail traders in the main are expecting this pair to crash from 150, I have been, and it may well do (as per my related idea below)... Commentators and past experience suggests that the BoJ will intervene around 150 to 151.5 because they have to, due to the debt relationship with the USA, they're stuck between a rock and a hard place. We all know...
As you can see here on the hourly timeframe we have formed some trend lines. I feel like we will open up tomorrow red and then if we can close above the top trend line above vwap and with good volume on the 5 minute chart I feel as though we can get a nice pop. Be careful tomorrow is a FED meeting!
war new pushed gold futures up 1% pre market, vix was up almost 10% at one point we retraced down to the .50 fib level, which was 1836. Now, going back up we can test the 1882 .618 fib level. This war has been going on for decades and was temporary to the markets, as spy has almost fully recovered now. The ongoing conflict in middle east should keep gold, oil and...
I'm expecting USDJPY to carry on meandering towards the 150 mark, and it's at this level that we've previously seen BoJ step in to defend their currency, We saw the same in June / July 2022, and I think we'll see it again. BoJ has started hinting at a change to monetary policy for the first time in a long time, we saw a very small reaction in the past week to...
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Snapshot - Between the 11 - 18th Sept 2023 we had the Largest one week decline of approx. $74.7 billion since the balance sheet reduction started in April 2022 - We are currently approx. $50 billion away from a 1 trillion reduction 👀 We are in for an interesting Quarter end to the 2023 year, that is to say the least....
Gold underpins the Chinese Yuan, it's underpinning the BRICS movement full-stop. Chinese economy is on the move... Recently, despite USD strength, Gold has maintained a HL, and I now see a reverse H&S forming. I expect FOMC to pause this week, and often FOMC is not the best for USD. I believe Gold has been forming a bull flag (which I calculate has been broken...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 09/25 As our daily trading plans reinforced before the FOMC meeting stated: "...any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell...
Last weeks high: $27490.1 Last weeks low: $26897.7 Midpoint: $26305.4 Despite several big news events relating to the FED funds rate, CPI & PPI, we saw a much tighter range last week than the week previously. We're already trading lower than last weeks low and confirmed as resistance with a bearish retest. It is interesting that the news events that used to...
This is a followup to this year-on-year inflation chart idea posted back in June 2022: The YoY US Inflation rate has been on a trend of going down since it tested the 1.414 PCZ of the Bearish Butterfly above, but recently we have seen the MoM rate slow its descent and form a bottoming pattern with MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence at the 200-Month SMA and now we...
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%,...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/21 As our daily trading plans reinforced before the FOMC meeting yesterday: "...any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell...
After a bad reception of yesterday's FOMC meeting, both the crypto and the stock markets have been selling off. Consequently, BTC has lost the bullish diagonal support that has been helping the bulls, leaving the way open for the bears to step in. In previous analyses I've talked about my bearish longer-term outlook, which naturally still applies. This analysis...