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Fundamental Analysis

Today's behavior of the Dollar-Yen news timeHello Red levels are good resistances and green levels are good support near the price. The downtrend line has also been drawn. Today we have important dollar news on the status of non-farm payrolls, which, given the history of the announced numbers, seems to be in the direction of weakening the dollar and strengthening the dollar-yen currency pair. So I expect a good reaction to the current resistance and finally confirmation to enter the sell position has been drawn. Don't forget about money management. Good luck.
Short
by mansour1978
1
DXY — London SessionThe Dollar reached its 99.8 target and closed the day above it, confirming short-term strength. Price now trades stretched on the daily chart, well above its normal rhythm. As long as daily lows keep printing higher, structure holds — but with both weekly and monthly charts in correction, momentum could fade quickly. This is a day-by-day market where clarity matters more than conviction. On the technical side, DXY shows rhythm exhaustion — clear deviation from its average range. When price moves this far from balance, professionals stop chasing and wait for rhythm to reset. The key signal now is whether the next daily low holds or breaks; that decides who controls the tape. Macro conditions still support the Dollar. The Fed’s tone stays cautious on further cuts, while the U.S. government shutdown keeps data flow limited. Investors prefer safety over yield, and capital continues to park in USD for clarity and liquidity. It’s not a growth story — it’s a stability story. When a target hits, professionals re-map before acting again. The next decision comes from structure, not emotion. Operator Rule: After targets hit, think — don’t chase. - Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
Nikkei 225 Plunges from Record HighNikkei 225 Plunges from Record High As the chart shows, the Nikkei 225 stock index formed a historic peak around 52,500 points only yesterday — but today it has fallen sharply, with losses at the session low reaching approximately 7%. Bearish sentiment was fuelled in part by a slump in shares of Japanese investment giant SoftBank, which dropped by around 14%. The company’s heavy exposure to sectors linked to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, both currently under pressure, has raised investor concerns. The decline in the Nikkei 225 appears to be an extension of the sell-off in US technology stocks recorded yesterday, driven by a stronger dollar and growing fears of an AI-fuelled bubble. Technical Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Chart As shown by the 200- and 400-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart, Japan’s equity market remains in a long-term uptrend, with the widening gap between the two lines signalling an acceleration in growth. This supports the relevance of two upward channels: → a long-term channel, shown in blue; → an intermediate channel, marked by orange lines with a steeper gradient. It is noteworthy that at the start of November, the Nikkei 225 entered the zone where the upper boundaries of both channels intersect – unsurprisingly, this confluence of resistance lines triggered a wave of selling pressure. Key observations: → Sellers succeeded in pushing the price down towards the lower orange line, which acted as strong support, similar to the movement seen between 10–12 October (indicated by arrows on the chart); → Today, the price made a false bearish breakout below the psychological 50,000 level, forming a candle with a long lower shadow – a sign of buying interest. Given the above, it is reasonable to assume that the market may attempt to resume its upward trajectory. Should this scenario play out, we could see signs of rally exhaustion, as the upward movement that began in April has already lifted the Nikkei 225 by more than 280%. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:J225
by FXOpen
1
XAUUSD XAU/USD – Gold Analysis Gold could rise toward the 3997–4000 zone to complete the fractal and retest the descending trendline forming the bearish channel. From that area, I’ll look for short opportunities, expecting a move toward the lower part of the ascending trendline. Yesterday, price strongly rejected the midline of the ascending channel, which confirms continued short pressure for now. Ideally, I’d like to see gold reach 3955, where it could find support and resume the broader bullish channel. Fundamental Outlook: The U.S. dollar remains firm, supported by rising Treasury yields and reduced expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have added some volatility, but risk appetite has improved slightly, reducing demand for gold as a safe haven. U.S. economic data continues to show resilience, giving the Fed room to keep policy restrictive — a factor that typically limits gold’s upside. However, any signs of weaker U.S. data or renewed global uncertainty could quickly support gold again, especially if the 3950–3960 area holds as strong demand. Summary: 📈 Possible rise to 3997–4000 → looking for short setups. 🎯 Downside target: 3955 (trendline support). 💡 Bias: Short-term bearish, medium-term bullish above 3950. ⚙️ Fundamentals: Strong USD and yields keep gold pressured for now.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Dan-Goldfx
EUR/USD Technical Analysis – November 5, 2025Price overview: EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure, trading below multiple key resistance levels after a clear downward continuation from the 1.1580 – 1.1600 zone. The market structure shows consistent lower highs, reflecting the strength of sellers on intraday timeframes. Technical outlook: Price has recently formed a minor consolidation range near 1.1480 – 1.1500, signaling potential continuation before the next impulse. Three major resistance levels to note: 1.1505 – 1.1520: Immediate intraday resistance zone (current retest area). 1.1555 – 1.1570: Previous supply area and unmitigated order block. 1.1600 – 1.1620: Higher-timeframe structural resistance. Support area: The next significant level sits at 1.1455 – 1.1445, coinciding with a liquidity pocket and previous demand reaction. Trading strategy: Main scenario (Sell bias): → Look for bearish confirmation around 1.1500 – 1.1520, ideally after a fake breakout or rejection wick. → Sell entry: 1.1500 → Stop loss: Above 1.1525 → Take profit: 1.1455 / 1.1445 The risk–reward ratio remains favorable if momentum continues in line with the overall bearish structure. Alternative scenario (Reversal potential): → A confirmed breakout and hold above 1.1555 would invalidate the bearish bias and shift focus toward 1.1600. Indicators & confluence: Price remains below the EMA50, maintaining bearish alignment on H1. RSI currently hovers near the neutral zone (~50), suggesting room for another push downward before oversold conditions develop. Key levels to monitor: Resistance: 1.1505 / 1.1555 / 1.1600 Support: 1.1455 / 1.1445 Conclusion: EUR/USD continues to trade within a controlled bearish rhythm, and the 1.1500 – 1.1520 zone remains critical for short-term direction. Traders should watch closely for rejection patterns to confirm potential downside continuation. Stay disciplined and follow the structure—reaction at key zones will reveal the next move. Save this setup and follow for more daily strategy updates.
by Henrybillion
The Market Is Still in Distribution, but Smart Money Moves QuietGold is trading around $3,990, recovering slightly after last week’s sharp sell-off. However, from a Smart Money Concept (SMC) perspective, the market structure continues to show clear bearish intent — with lower highs, unmitigated supply zones, and descending liquidity still controlling price flow. 💭 1️⃣ Market Structure – The Bearish Flow Remains Intact After several BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmations, the bullish attempts are getting weaker. Price remains capped under a clean descending trendline, showing how sellers are gradually stepping in at every premium retracement level. The current market is operating within a distribution phase, where Smart Money continues to build short positions above liquidity zones while trapping late buyers inside minor pullbacks. The key level 4,043 – 4,050 stands out as the nearest Bearish Order Block (OB) and strong short-term supply. Until this area is decisively broken, Gold remains technically bearish. 🩶 2️⃣ Supply Zones – Where Smart Money Left Their Footprints Karina is currently watching three critical supply layers: 4,043 – 4,050: Active supply zone aligning with trendline confluence – ideal for short-term sell setups. 4,149 – 4,160: A deeper liquidity pocket where Smart Money previously distributed heavy positions. 4,221 – 4,359: Major macro supply zones – where institutional orders were likely built during October’s highs. Price is still well below these regions, suggesting that any rally remains corrective rather than impulsive. 🧭 3️⃣ Liquidity Context – The Path of Least Resistance Below current price, 3,884 – 3,890 forms the next liquidity magnet — a cluster of equal lows and inefficiency gaps that Smart Money might target next. Above, resting buy-side liquidity around 4,050 gives institutions a perfect opportunity to engineer a small push up before resuming the main downtrend. This is the same pattern we’ve seen repeatedly: liquidity grab → displacement → continuation. 🌙 4️⃣ Trading Scenario – Flow With the Institutions, Not Against Them As long as the structure remains below the trendline, Karina maintains a bearish bias. If price retests 4,043 – 4,050 and shows rejection through a bearish engulfing or sharp rejection wick, short setups will align with SMC logic. Entry: 4,043 – 4,050 Stop Loss: 4,060 Take Profit: 3,884 – 3,890 The setup offers a clean 1:4 R:R, based purely on structure and liquidity flow — no indicators, no noise. 🌷 5️⃣ Reflection – When Silence Speaks Louder Than Volatility Gold’s current rhythm is calm yet calculated. Every retracement feels like a whisper from Smart Money — testing patience, not conviction. For Karina, this is the phase where discipline matters most. While many chase impulsive moves, Smart Money quietly prepares for the next wave, and the charts tell their story to those patient enough to listen. 🌙 This analysis reflects Karina’s personal view and is not financial advice. What do you see in today’s Gold structure? Is this retracement a calm before another drop, or the beginning of accumulation? Let’s discuss below 💬
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Karina_ilina
The Dollar Index Near a Key HighThe Dollar Index Near a Key High As shown on the Dollar Index (DXY) chart, the strength of the US currency is currently hovering near an important high reached in August. Market sentiment is being influenced by: → the ongoing government shutdown, which has already become the longest in history; → traders’ assessment of last week’s developments, including the Fed’s interest rate cut, the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents in South Korea, and quarterly earnings reports from major corporations. Adding to the turbulence is the political factor: according to media reports, Democrats have achieved victories in several local elections. Notably, Zohran Mamdani – a Muslim candidate from the Democratic Party – has been elected Mayor of New York for the first time. Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart It is worth recalling that on 19 September we published an important analysis of the DXY chart, in which we: → highlighted the false breakout of the 1 July low; → suggested a bullish scenario. Following this, the price rose to the upper boundary of the red channel. In our earlier analysis, we: → constructed an ascending channel; → anticipated that the upward trajectory would remain relevant. That scenario played out – demand proved strong enough to overcome: → resistance around the 95-point level, where a double-top pattern (a–b) had previously formed; → the psychological barrier at 100 points. It is possible that the 3.7% rise in the Dollar Index over roughly one and a half months could attract sellers. The main intrigue now lies in whether we will see an aggressive reversal accompanied by a false breakout – similar to what occurred in September, but this time in a downward direction. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXY
by FXOpen
1
Daily gold momentumGold is currently trading between the Daily POC and the Daily LVN. The overall price momentum is still bearish. Notice how the EMAs are wide apart, creating a strong downward structure (red cloud). POC: 4000 HVN: 4237 LVN: 3889 Market Outlook The POC often acts like a magnet — price tends to move toward it. Right now, there is a high probability that the market will reach the POC before continuing downward. ✅ Bullish Scenario (Price moves up before dropping) Conditions for a buy: On London open, price must close above 3977.00 with high volume (confirm on the 30M or 1H timeframe) Price should retest 3976–3975.5 Look for high volume to confirm demand Wait for a rejection candle (e.g., pin bar) Once confirmations are met: ➤ Buy and set Take Profit at the POC (4000) 📌 When price reaches the POC: Scenario 1 — Rejection at POC (Bearish) Price reaches POC and rejects with high volume This is the first confirmation price may return to the LVN Second confirmation: price retests the POC, then wait for: Bearish engulfing candle closing below the retest candle ➡️ Expect move back down toward LVN (3889) Scenario 2 — Breakout above POC (Bullish) Price breaks POC with high volume First confirmation of move toward HVN (4237) Second confirmation: price retests the POC, then wait for: Engulfing candle or pin bar with high volume on 1H 🔍 Additional Confirmation Check your MA (moving average) setup on 1H timeframe Ensure momentum supports your direction
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FXGOD22
StevenTrading – XAUUSD Strategy for Gold in an Upward Price...StevenTrading – XAUUSD Strategy for Gold in an Upward Price Channel Hello everyone, StevenTrading is back with today's gold perspective – a deeper analysis of price behavior as global capital flows are experiencing strong shifts. The latest data shows that gold investment funds have recorded a net withdrawal of -7.5 billion USD in the past week as investors took profits after a historic rise. Notably, the previous week saw an inflow of +8.5 billion USD, reflecting the extreme volatility of capital flows. In the last 4 months, gold funds have still attracted a total of +59 billion USD, indicating that institutional money continues to maintain a positive trend, despite short-term adjustments. 📰 Fundamental Analysis – Market Perspective The main driver keeping gold strong is the rotation of capital between assets in a context where global liquidity remains abundant. With persistent inflation and central banks maintaining a cautious stance, investors tend to take temporary profits but still hold a proportion of gold in their portfolios. Short-term selling pressure is therefore just a phase of re-accumulation, not a signal of a trend reversal. As long as global liquidity is not tightened, gold will maintain upward momentum in the medium to long term. 📊 Technical Analysis – Trading Strategy in the Price Channel On the chart, gold is still moving within an upward price channel, with no signs of breaking the structure. Currently, the price is fluctuating in the range of 396x – 404x, indicating a temporary equilibrium state. The market still respects the upper and lower boundaries of the price channel, creating opportunities for short-term trading at the boundaries while waiting for clear breakout signals. Main mindset: As long as the price holds the upward channel structure, prioritize Buying at the lower trendline and short Selling at resistance areas, waiting for confirmation signals to enter trades. 🎯 Trading Scenarios (Action Plan) 🔴 Sell Scenario – When the price fails at the resistance area: If the price slightly breaks the resistance and then reverses, the sell setup will be activated. Entry: Sell 3978 after confirming price rejection. SL: 3985 TP: 3962 – 3946 – 3922 🟢 Buy Scenario – Buy when the price bounces from the trendline: If the price adjusts to touch the upward trendline and bounces strongly, this is a favorable entry area in line with the trend. Entry: Buy 3993 after confirming trendline reaction. SL: 3985 TP: 4010 – 4048 – 4103 📌 Steven's Notes The overall structure still leans towards an uptrend, but the market is in a liquidity hunting phase, suitable for short-term and flexible trading. Maintain discipline, only enter trades in areas with clear confirmation, and always manage risk strictly. This week's success comes from patience and precision in every entry.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steven-GoldTrading
Euro/Aussie Eyes 1.7780 Resistance Amid RBA Pause and Eurozone PEUR/AUD is testing the upper boundary of a rising channel near 1.7710 after recent strength in the euro and caution around the Australian dollar ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy commentary. The technical set-up favours a push toward 1.7760-1.7780 (near the 78.6–100 % Fibonacci extensions), provided support holds around 1.7680–1.7690. Key fundamentals include the RBA’s hold at 3.60 % and the eurozone PMI releases that may boost euro demand; the AUD remains pressured by weaker commodity triggers and a lack of fresh impetus. The alternative scenario, if risk sentiment sours or the RBA signals easing later, would target a break below channel support toward 1.7640-1.7620. Read full article here: erranteacademy.com
Long
by Errante
BTC/USDT (4H) Chart AnalysisThe chart shows Bitcoin’s 4-hour price action on Binance with clear Smart Money Concepts (SMC) elements, including BOS (Break of Structure), CHoCH (Change of Character), and EQH/EQL (Equal Highs/Lows) levels. After a strong bullish phase that broke previous structure highs, BTC faced multiple CHoCH signals, confirming a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. Price has since been trending downward, breaking key demand zones and forming lower highs and lower lows. Currently, BTC is trading around $101,900, retesting the broken structure zone (previous support turned resistance). The volume profile shows increased selling pressure during breakdowns, suggesting sustained bearish momentum. RSI remains below 40, reflecting weak buying interest and potential continuation of the downtrend until bullish divergence forms. Key levels to watch: Immediate resistance: $103,700 – $104,500 Next resistance: $106,500 Support zone: $98,800 – $97,800 Next major liquidity area: Below weak low near $98,850 If BTC fails to reclaim the $104K–$106K region, further downside toward $98K remains likely. However, a strong bullish CHoCH around current levels could indicate a short-term reversal.
by Darshana_Alwis
SK Telecom shift in internal roadmaps.It's when everythiing looks negative with all the negative earning and news. Trading on news is bad. Trading on future contract is what makes money. SK Telecom has shining future with hyperscaler data center and AI infrastructure roadmaps. They are planning structural shift, which will result negative earning again, is in-fact the right choice for the company's future 1st Target is 58,000 Won The price might dip to 50,000 Won, but I'd add more by then unless their roadmap and intention of CAPEX doesn't change.
KRX:017670Long
by DarkRane
1
EURUSDEUR/USD – Technical & Fundamental Outlook I’m waiting for price to reach the 1.1457 level, where I’ll be looking for buy opportunities targeting a move back toward 1.1550. The U.S. dollar has recently strengthened, mainly due to safe-haven demand as it’s being used as a reserve currency amid geopolitical tensions with Venezuela. However, this strength may be temporary. The U.S. government shutdown has created public spending pressure, and once it reopens, it will need to pay accumulated salaries, adding fiscal strain. For that reason, despite current corrections, I continue to see the dollar as fundamentally bearish in the medium term.
Long
by Dan-Goldfx
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 5, 2025 EURUSDThe euro remains under pressure as the US dollar firms ahead of key US services activity indicators. Investors are weighing the mix of resilient consumer demand and signs of softer employment, which supports the dollar via firmer Treasury yields and demand for safe-haven assets. The upcoming release of the US services activity index and fresh private-sector employment data shapes expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate path and, overall, keeps the bias in favor of the dollar. In the euro area, the backdrop is subdued: business activity in manufacturing and services remains muted, while inflation expectations have been revised lower following the ECB’s latest easing of financing conditions. The combination of soft domestic momentum and limited progress in credit growth sustains caution toward the euro. Recent ECB communication emphasizes stabilizing growth over the risks of re-accelerating inflation, which also weighs on the currency. An additional factor is a generally risk-averse tone: concerns around the US budget and headlines on government spending bolster demand for the dollar as a reserve asset. Against this backdrop, the near-term risk balance for EURUSD remains tilted lower; if US data stay firm, the pair risks holding around multi-month lows. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.14950, SL 1.15250, TP 1.14450
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Has the BoE Already Doomed the Sterling?Macroeconomics: Diverging Central Bank Paths The British Pound (GBP) has aggressively declined, losing 4.8% from September highs, primarily due to a growing policy divergence between the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets increasingly expect the BoE to cut interest rates sooner, with current pricing suggesting a 35% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. This dovish pressure stems from cooling UK labor data and inflation, which, despite ticking up slightly, remains far from 2023’s double-digit peaks. In stark contrast, the US Dollar (USD) remains resilient, supported by the Fed’s persistent "higher for longer" stance. Strong US data, notably the 195,000 October Non-Farm Payrolls addition, bolsters this hawkish view. This widening interest rate differential, now almost 100 basis points favoring the USD, makes dollar assets more attractive than sterling assets, directly pressuring the GBP/USD pair toward the critical 1.3000 support level. Economics and Fiscal Warning: Tax Hikes Loom Domestic UK economic concerns amplify the bearish pressure on Sterling. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves issued a pre-Budget warning, confirming an intent to raise taxes to close a significant £22 billion fiscal gap. This public rhetoric prepares markets for an Autumn Budget featuring fiscal tightening measures. Fiscal tightening through tax hikes generally dampens economic growth expectations, which encourages the BoE to consider rate cuts to stimulate activity. This political and economic dynamic fuels bond market volatility. The UK 10-year gilt yield briefly fell, reflecting investor expectation of slower growth and a dovish BoE response, accelerating the GBP/USD selloff. Geopolitics and Geostrategy: Dollar's Global Anchor The Dollar's strength is not purely macroeconomic; it acts as a global safe-haven anchor, a key geostrategic function. Renewed focus on geopolitical stability and trade deals, such as the preliminary US-China trade consensus on export controls and fentanyl, often benefits the US Dollar as the primary reserve currency. Conversely, the UK faces fiscal uncertainty and lower productivity forecasts, placing its currency at a relative disadvantage. The USD's dominance, reinforced by Chair Jerome Powell's measured, firm rhetoric, creates a sharp contrast with the BoE’s internal divisions on policy. This global context makes the USD the preferred currency, undermining Sterling's value on the international stage. Technology and Cyber Risk: Underlying Competitiveness While the movement is not driven by immediate technical news, the UK's long-term technological and patent competitiveness affects its currency's appeal. Persistent issues, like lower productivity forecasts reported by the Office for Budget Responsibility, imply a lag in high-tech innovation and efficiency compared to the US. A slower pace of innovation and lower productivity in the UK's services and manufacturing sectors contrasts with the robust, job-creating US economy. This fundamental economic weakness limits Sterling's potential for sustained, long-term appreciation. Technical analysis confirms this bearish trend, showing a double-top pattern and momentum indicators deep in negative territory, confirming the downward bias toward the 1.3000 psychological barrier.
Short
by the5erstrading
4