Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) continues to face resistance below the $3,995–$3,993 Resistance Zone, with repeated rejections suggesting weakening bullish momentum. Price action has formed lower highs near $3,990, signalling potential exhaustion.
The Support Zone sits around $3,929–$3,938, which previously acted as a springboard for short-term rebounds. The current structure favours a bearish correction, particularly if price fails to reclaim $3,995 on a sustained basis. A clean break below $3,950 would confirm bearish continuation toward the $3,930 area.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Sell near resistance, target a drop toward support.
Entry: $3,985 – $3,993 (Resistance Zone retest)
Stop Loss: $3,996
Take Profit 1: $3,950
Take Profit 2: $3,930
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 5.2
A break above $3,996 would invalidate the short setup and could open the door to retest $4,030.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold prices slipped to around $3,970 in Thursday’s Asian session, weighed down by stronger-than-expected US private payroll data and a resilient US Dollar.
As FXStreet’s Lallalit Srijandorn noted, “Gold edges lower below $4,000 as private payrolls rebound in October.” 【FXStreet】
ADP Employment Data: US companies added 42,000 jobs in October, rebounding from the previous month’s contraction, suggesting stabilization in the labor market. This data supports the Fed’s cautious tone and trims expectations for near-term rate cuts.
Fed Commentary: Several Fed officials, including Michael Barr, John Williams, and Christopher Waller, are scheduled to speak later today. Any hawkish remarks reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative could further strengthen the USD and pressure gold.
Government Shutdown: The US government shutdown, now at 37 days, marks the longest in history. Political gridlock could lend some safe-haven support to gold, but so far, the impact has been muted compared to stronger USD dynamics.
In short, with the US labour market improving and Fed officials maintaining caution, gold’s upside remains limited, while macro bias supports near-term weakness.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,985 – $3,996
Support: $3,929 – $3,938
Psychological Level: $4,000
📌 Trade Summary
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure below $4,000 as bullish momentum fades. The setup favours a short position from the $3,985–$3,993 zone, targeting a decline toward $3,930. A sustained break above $3,996 would invalidate this bias and shift focus to $4,030 resistance.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
