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Gold Breaks Out: Bullish Momentum Moves GOLD Above 4025 Gold Breaks Out: Bullish Momentum Moves GOLD Above 4025 Gold is moving exactly in line with our previous projections. After nearly three weeks of sideways movement, the metal finally broke out with strong bullish momentum, resuming its dominant uptrend. The breakout above the 4025 structure zone confirmed renewed buying pressure, with the price surging sharply during the early hours of the market open. Interestingly, this rally comes without any major market catalysts. While the U.S. Senate’s progress toward ending the 40-day government shutdown is technically positive for the dollar, gold once again proves that it doesn’t always follow the news narrative. At this stage, a short-term pullback to retest 4025 would be healthy before the next leg higher. Given the rapid rise from 4000 to 4075, some consolidation is likely before continuation. Key Targets: 🎯 4135 🎯 4230 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ 🎯 Previous analysis:
FX:XAUUSDLong
by KlejdiCuni
11
Go long on gold in line with market trendsThis week saw significant changes in the gold market. After opening, gold prices broke out of their previous prolonged consolidation pattern, strongly breaking through a key resistance area and re-entering a one-sided upward trend. The previous resistance in the 4030-4050 range was completely broken, and the bulls quickly took control, driving prices to continue to climb. As emphasized in the previous analysis, once the gold price breaks through the key technical range of 4030-4050, it will signify the start of a new upward trend. Looking at the actual price action, since the breakout, gold has experienced almost no significant pullback, with strong buying support and a clear shift in market sentiment towards optimism. To date, the price has risen by several hundred dollars, demonstrating strong upward momentum. Reviewing yesterday's viewpoint, we clearly pointed out that when prices successfully break through key resistance levels, trading strategies should be adjusted accordingly, shifting from observation or short-term trading to trend-following and actively establishing long positions. Currently, gold prices are once again approaching the important resistance area of ​​4150-4160, which had previously encountered resistance multiple times. This area has formed several interim highs in the past few trading cycles, and is a double pressure zone in terms of market psychology and technical structure. If this price breaks through and holds above this level with significant volume, the upside potential is likely to expand further, making a return to the 4200 level highly probable, and it may even continue to move towards higher targets. In terms of specific trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a buy-on-dips approach, seizing entry opportunities during pullbacks. An ideal entry range is 4105 to 4125. Within this range, long positions can be established in batches to control risk while ensuring no loss of the main upward trend. Close monitoring of market movements is crucial, especially the reaction in the 4150-4160 range—if the price recovers quickly after a brief period of resistance with increased volume, it can be considered a breakout signal; conversely, caution is warranted regarding short-term profit-taking volatility. Overall, this round of gold price increases is not only due to the confirmed technical breakout but also influenced by recent changes in the global macroeconomic environment, including rising inflation expectations, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and increased gold reserves held by some central banks. Until there are signs of a trend reversal, maintaining a bullish mindset and closely following the market rhythm will be the safest approach at present. The above represents only my personal thoughts. If you find it helpful, please like and follow to show your support! Please note that any strategy is time-sensitive and may change as market conditions evolve. I will notify you in the channel based on the actual market situation!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Market_Trading_Guide
Report 11/11/25Report summery Markets just got a two-handed shove: politically, the election results plus a Supreme Court that sounded wary about the legal basis for most of the administration’s tariffs; corporately, Tesla shareholders rewarding the “robotaxi + Optimus” optionality with a record package that anchors the market’s physical-AI story. In the very near term, that mix argues for lower equity risk appetite at the index level when policy uncertainty flares, stickier rate-cut expectations if the Court crimps tariff revenue, a range-bound to firmer USD on growth and rate differentials, and a supported crude tape as OPEC+ keeps output expansion on pause. Barron’s summed the weekly tape: Dow −1.2%, S&P −1.6%, Nasdaq −3.0% into the election/Court week, with oil buoyed as OPEC+ paused planned increases and the shutdown dragged on; AI positioning was a headwind for some names.  On Nov. 11, the Dollar Index printed ~96.9 and U.S. equities bounced from the week’s slump, underscoring that this is a path dependency story, each headline toggles the balance between “tariff revenue supports fiscal and dovish Fed” versus “legal curbs force policy workarounds and wider deficits.” Yields have been skittish for precisely this reason. What just changed and why it’s material Voters swung blue in key off-year races (NYC, NJ, VA, CA), a symbolic check on the White House, while conservative justices questioned whether tariffs belong with Congress rather than the presidency under the emergency-powers rubric. That combination narrows the unilateral policy lane that markets had grown used to, even if near-term asset prices still lean on AI enthusiasm and hopes of Fed cuts. At the same time, the shutdown’s persistence and data blackouts (CPI/PPI delayed) reduce near-term macro visibility; the FAA even trimmed air traffic by ~10% due to staffing constraints. This keeps volatility in play around each incremental political headline. Finally, shareholders approved a $1T incentive for Musk, a shot of confidence in Tesla’s “physical AI” thesis even as today’s revenue mix remains car-heavy, locking in a market narrative where robotaxis and humanoid robots carry an outsized share of implied valuation.  Policy mechanics and the market’s decision tree Tariffs & the Court. If the Court ultimately limits the current legal basis, the administration can try to pivot to other authorities to keep levies flowing, but there will likely be a gap risk: refunds on existing levies or slower collections would widen near-term funding needs, affect Treasury supply expectations, and complicate the deficit path that officials have been using to justify rate-cut rhetoric. Even some market participants who think the strategy will be re-patched concede it would put the White House on the back foot and chill counterparties’ willingness to concede in trade talks. Shutdown & fiscal optics. The Senate moved a package to end the shutdown, but intraparty backlash shows how fragile the coalition is; until resolution, the absence of data and incremental operational frictions (SNAP/payment delays risk, FAA constraints) raise the odds of episodic growth scares without giving the Fed clean data.  Oil policy backdrop. OPEC+ pausing planned output increases props up crude into year-end, interacting with any tariff- or shutdown-driven supply chain noise. That’s important for breakevens and for the “Fed-cuts-soon” narrative.  Asset-by-asset implications XAUUSD (gold). In the near term, gold remains a buy-the-dips hedge on policy volatility: Court-driven tariff uncertainty and shutdown-driven data gaps nudge rate-cut odds around the edges and keep real-yield volatility elevated, a classic recipe for tactical gold bids on risk-off days. If the Court curtails tariff revenue and the market leans to earlier cuts, that supports gold through lower real rates; if the administration swiftly re-routes tariffs and the dollar firms, gold consolidates in a broad range. The recent bond-market “yips” around tariff prospects are the tell.  S&P 500 / Dow Jones. Index-level path is choppy: earnings leadership is narrowing again and AI-capex “asset-heavy” pivots create P&L drag in some megacaps, while the shutdown and tariff newsflow toggle multiples. Tesla’s vote is bullish for the AI/automation complex beta but doesn’t change aggregates if rates wobble. Near term, I favor quality large-cap growth with cash-flow resilience plus defensives until shutdown clarity and the Court’s posture firm up. Barron’s captured last week’s risk-off and the OPEC+ oil tailwind; Monday’s equity bounce illustrates the headline-sensitivity regime we’re in. USDJPY & DXY. The dollar stays two-way but supported on growth/rate differentials while U.S. policy is seen as net-stimulative and the Fed isn’t firmly committed to a December cut. If tariffs are curtailed and deficit optics worsen, the market could fade the USD on lower real yields, but the move likely waits for clean data once the shutdown ends. The Dollar Index hovering near the high-90s underscores that this isn’t a collapse scenario; it’s a chop.  Crude Oil. With OPEC+ pausing increases, balances tighten modestly into year-end. China’s reserve behavior and sanction dynamics provide an underlying floor. In a risk-off tape on U.S. politics, crude may dip on growth fears, but policy-put supply argues for buying weakness unless global demand data sharply deteriorate.  Strategic forecasts Base case (55%). Shutdown is resolved with a thin deal; the Court issues an opinion that narrows but does not nuke tariff usage, prompting legal workarounds that preserve most revenue with a lag. Equities grind with factor rotations; the dollar ranges; crude stays supported; gold holds a high-beta hedge role. Fed communication turns a bit more data-dependent into year-end given the data blackout.  Bullish risk (25%). Quick shutdown end plus an opinion that validates sufficient tariff authority to keep revenue intact; Treasury supply relief + OPEC+ discipline + ongoing AI enthusiasm push the Dow back toward highs and compress IG/HY spreads; DXY firms and gold ranges.  Bearish risk (20%). Prolonged shutdown + opinion that forces refunds and delays replacements; Treasury supply fears lift term premia; equities de-rate; DXY softens with yields, gold rallies, crude chops but holds better than cyclicals thanks to OPEC+. The recent recounting of bond market swings on tariff odds shows you the path dependency.  Fiscal and political implications investors can’t ignore Three items drive the medium-term P/L: (1) tariff-linked revenue math and Treasury issuance; (2) the durability of OPEC+ discipline against a soft global cycle; (3) the political learning curve, Democrats adopting more muscular tactics, Republicans facing internal constraints, which together implies higher policy volatility even if the average path for growth is fine. Barron’s flagged both the Court’s fiscal wild card and the way Tuesday’s results may restrain unilateralism; that mix lifts the premium investors demand for U.S. policy stability, even if risk assets still love AI. Risks and opportunities The principal left-tail is a messy ruling that triggers refunds and months of tariff uncertainty just as shutdown distortions bite, an ugly cocktail for rates and cyclicals. The principal right-tail is a clean shutdown resolution + Court clarity that stabilizes fiscal math, letting the market refocus on productivity/AI and re-rate quality growth. Within that, Tesla’s package cements capital availability for physical-AI narratives, spilling over to industrial robotics, auto-ADAS, edge compute and power gear, even as the index tape stays headline-driven.  Positioning ideas For XAUUSD, I like staggered entries on pullbacks during USD firmness or yield pops, with exits into Court/shutdown risk-off spikes. For S&P 500/Dow, stay barbell: cash-rich compounders and resilient defensives against a small sleeve of physical-AI and industrial automation beta that benefits from the Tesla imprimatur. For USDJPY/DXY, keep trades short-leash, fading extremes rather than chasing, until we have a shutdown end date and tariff jurisprudence in hand. For crude, own dips while OPEC+ maintains discipline; rotate to producers with strong balance sheets and low breakevens rather than pure beta. Executive context and current market state Into Tuesday, Nov. 11 (Warsaw), U.S. equities are trading near record territory after a constructive start to the week: the S&P 500 closed at 6,832.43 (+1.54% on Monday), the Dow at 47,368.63 (+0.81%), and the Nasdaq Composite at 23,527.17 (+2.27%). The Dollar Index sits at 96.87 (down ~5.7% YTD), spot gold rallied to about $4,112/oz, and front-month crude is hovering near $60/bbl. The broad Bloomberg U.S. Treasury index yield is ~3.92%, with the long Treasury index near 4.69%. This is the asset-mix backdrop for the week’s catalysts. What the “$1T robo ransom” vote really does (Tesla) The central equity narrative is shifting from EV unit economics to “physical-AI” optionality. The shareholder vote to award Elon Musk an unprecedented performance package is, functionally, a vote to concentrate control around a Robotaxi/Optimus roadmap that currently contributes almost nothing to revenue but most of the equity value embedded in the stock, per the Barron’s analysis you shared. The bull frame is speed: Tesla’s ability to iterate hardware, software, and data centers quickly, plus its experience “touching the physical world”, positions it to attack logistics and labor-substitution profit pools. The bear/neutral frame is time-to-cash: Robotaxi economics require regulatory throughput, urban deployment, and sustained FSD reliability; humanoids require customer acceptance, cost curves, and safety frameworks. On the numbers cited: BofA’s value apportionment implies that the “auto today” piece is a minority of the price, while Robotaxis and Optimus together dominate. If the plan passes, as betting markets and high-profile holders suggest in the column—Tesla leans even harder into the AI platform identity. If it fails, governance overhang grows, and the equity would likely re-rate toward cash-producing businesses (auto + energy storage + FSD subscriptions), a meaningfully lower outcome than “open-ended” robo upside. For portfolio construction, that bifurcation matters because a “pass” increases the path-dependence of Tesla within mega-cap indices: more sensitivity to AI-infrastructure cycles, to city-level regulation, and to headline risk around automation accidents. Near term, the mechanical index impact is supportive while the broader EV tape remains mixed; medium term, you should assume higher left-tail volatility around regulatory events and demo failures (a la past autonomy setbacks), paired with right-tail upside on any credible Robotaxi monetization pilot. Big Tech’s AI capex super-cycle and cash-flow math Across Big Tech, a maturing AI capex super-cycle is compressing near-term margins at firms that lack offsetting external cloud revenue, while advantaging platforms that can rent out capacity. The piece you provided highlights Meta’s capex and depreciation bulge and the risk that “show-me” cash-flows lag the spend. Alphabet’s higher capex guide is backstopped by stronger cash generation and Cloud profitability; Microsoft and AWS remain cushioned by cloud operating leverage even as depreciation ramps. For alpha, the implication is straightforward: reward owners of AI-capex that monetize externally, and be choosier where AI is largely an internal cost center. At the second-derivative level, this also pulls forward demand for power, grid upgrades, copper and electrical equipment, and specialized construction, supporting industrials with data-center exposure, while creating pressure on utilities and regional power markets in the form of capacity and pricing debates. Tariffs: macro effect smaller than feared, but the legal risk rises The tariff shock of April didn’t deliver “doomsday.” The data in your packet point to an effective average rate materially below headline levies (via exemptions, supply-chain rerouting, bonded-warehouse usage, and inventory timing), with companies eating a notable share of costs as margins remain structurally fatter than pre-pandemic. That’s why realized inflation impulse looks muted so far, even as some sectors creep prices higher over time. The legal front is now a separate, market-moving variable: the Supreme Court signaled skepticism on key tariff authorities; a forced refund of previously collected levies is estimated at roughly $195 billion, which would weigh on the dollar if enacted. In markets last week, the ICE DXY slipped, and the Dollar Index has been trending lower YTD, consistent with anticipation of Fed easing and, at the margin, legal risk to tariff revenue. U.S.–China: a fragile detente and what it removes and doesn’t The Trump and Xi summit in South Korea took some tail-risk off: a one-year delay on China’s new rare-earths curbs, U.S. suspension of the “affiliates rule” expansion, partial tariff relief, and resumed commodity purchases provide breathing room. This is commercial de-escalation, not strategic rapprochement, and core issues (advanced chips, dual-use tech, export controls) are unresolved. For positioning, the immediate effect is lower equity risk premia across Asia and semis with China exposure, plus a softer safe-haven bid into the dollar; medium term, watch whether Nvidia’s engagement yields any sanctioned-product pathway and whether enforcement on rerouting via third countries tightens. Path dependency remains high: a single export-control or maritime incident can unwind the calm. Labor market erosion vs. foundation: why the Fed still leans to cuts The labor theme in your packet, stable initial claims around ~220k amid headline layoffs, supports the “erosion, not cliff” view. Small-business hiring intent is trying to turn; hospitality and transport showed monthly payroll gains; education/healthcare still add jobs. It’s a tepid recovery pulse, but it keeps the U.S. growth mix alive alongside easing goods inflation. Fed Governor Lisa Cook framed the trade-off cleanly: policy remains “modestly restrictive,” with downside jobs risk outweighing the risk of reinflation at the margin, and every meeting staying live. That stance is consistent with a 2026-leaning cuts path and a softer dollar baseline absent fresh supply shocks. Gold’s resilience with real yields off the highs is consistent with that combination and with continued geopolitical hedging.  Fiscal frictions: SNAP partial payments and shutdown scarring SNAP’s partial-benefit plan during the shutdown introduces near-term drag for the lowest-income cohorts with the highest marginal propensity to consume, alongside state-level administrative delays. The macro effect is small at the national level but not trivial for retail comps sensitive to the EBT calendar. If prolonged, it slightly dents Q4/Q1 discretionary and reinforces the case for easier Fed policy relative to a world where fiscal flows were unimpeded. Energy: China’s strategic stockpiling cushions crude’s downside China has been importing >11 mb/d this year, stashing an estimated 1.0–1.2 mb/d into reserves, while Brent and WTI trade in the low-$60s. Stockpiling, capacity additions, and yuan-settled Russian flows put a floor under prices; conversely, any pause in those reserve builds exposes crude to the low-$50s scenario given the still-loose global balance. The U.S., by contrast, has been slow to rebuild the SPR. For portfolio risk, that mix argues for maintaining convexity via call spreads rather than outright long barrels, given macro growth uncertainty. The current tape, crude near $60, gold >$4k, dollar softer, is exactly the profile that tends to favor duration and quality equities over high-beta cyclicals unless or until an upside demand surprise materializes.  Banks: BofA’s bid to close the ROTCE gap Bank of America’s investor day intends to shift the narrative from “responsible growth” to “more growth,” with a targeted ROTCE lift toward 16–18% from ~14% YTD, and capital returns combining ~2% yield with robust buybacks for a ~7% total shareholder yield. The drag from the low-coupon MBS book should abate as reinvestment runs at higher yields into 2026, while credit costs remain benign relative to history. Versus JPMorgan’s still-superior returns, BofA’s upside rests on delivering loan growth (notably cards, where it’s been conservative), re-energizing Merrill’s margins, and proving out NII expansion without undue duration risk. At ~12.5x forward EPS and a discount to top peers, there is room for multiple catch-up if execution lands. The near-term risk is “sell the news” if targets are seen as back-loaded. Strategy, risks, and where to lean on Strategically, lean into beneficiaries of externally monetizable AI capex (cloud platforms and their power-and-build-out upstreams), quality financials that can credibly expand ROTCE as duration headwinds fade, and gold as a policy-and-geopolitics hedge while dollar momentum is soft. Keep a differentiated stance within mega-cap tech: firms with internal-only AI spend face “show-me” risk on margins. Maintain optionality in energy rather than directional leverage. The biggest risks to this stance are an adverse Supreme Court outcome that ricochets through trade channels in unexpected ways, a negative surprise in CPI that re-firms real yields, an autonomy-related regulatory shock that crimps the Tesla/Robotaxi narrative, or an abrupt deterioration in the U.S.–China tone that revives dollar strength and commodity volatility.  For the lazy in my opinion: * XAUUSD (Gold): Up * S&P 500 (ES): Up * Dow Jones (DJI): Up * Nasdaq 100 (NQ): Up * WTI Crude (CL): Up (modest; floor from China stockpiling) * DXY (US Dollar Index): Down * USDJPY: Down (yen firmer on softer USD/rates) * UST 10Y Yield: Down (prices up) * TSLA: Up (governance vote → “physical-AI” optionality) * META: Down (capex/depr. overhang) * GOOGL: Up (cloud/cash flow cushion) * MSFT: Up (Azure strength) * AMZN: Up (AWS monetizes AI demand) * Bank of America (BAC): Up (ROTCE catch-up path) * Energy equities (XLE): Down (oil capped, margin pressure) * Copper: Up (grid/data-center buildout) * EURUSD: Up (weaker USD) * USDCNH: Down (yuan supported by flows) * VIX: Down (risk premium easing)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
The Shutdown Ends: How Will Gold Prices React?The Shutdown Ends: How Will Gold Prices React? According to Reuters, the U.S. Senate on Monday approved a compromise deal to bring an end to the longest government shutdown in the country’s history. During the shutdown: → millions of Americans lost access to food assistance programmes; → hundreds of thousands of federal employees went without pay; → air travel was severely disrupted. The uncertainty surrounding the potential continuation of the shutdown appears to have contributed to a breakout in the price of gold (as a traditional safe-haven asset) above its recent consolidation zone, marked by black lines on the chart. However, further gains could be capped not only by fading risk aversion but also by a less obvious resistance level, which the XAU/USD rate has reached today. Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart Using the key pivot points (highlighted in bold), we can trace a descending channel, with the gold price now testing its upper boundary, where resistance may emerge. Another argument supporting this view is that the price currently sits around the 50% retracement level of the A→B downswing. This area may attract sellers seeking to defend the downward trajectory of gold. Whether this resistance line holds — or the bulls attempt to reignite the autumn rally — will largely depend on the tone of upcoming economic releases (delayed by the shutdown) and their impact on market expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
2
BTC and Macro Environment · Optimism Creeps Back InThe macro environment is warming up again. Traders are slowly adding risk as Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD holds above $100K and Ethereum COINBASE:ETHUSD shows rising retail activity. Altcoins are regaining liquidity, and sentiment feels like cautious optimism. What’s driving this shift? Money. Talk of new stimulus checks and potential rate cuts are fueling bullish expectations. The idea is simple: more liquidity means stronger risk appetite. But this comes with a catch. Fiscal math doesn’t add up cleanly. With tariffs bringing in $224.7B and proposed stimulus near $400B, inflation fears could return fast if spending isn’t balanced. The U.S. government’s reopening adds another layer. Once the Treasury starts releasing the $1 trillion parked in its account, liquidity will flow again into agencies and contractors. This real injection supports a bullish tone across markets, including crypto. On the chart above, Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA) is the key signal. BTC closing above it suggests the long-term uptrend remains intact. Historically, this level marks early bullish phases, not tops. If it holds, traders may stay long but cautious, watching for shifts in Fed tone or inflation data. Overall, the crypto market is showing signs of recovery. Liquidity is improving, technicals look stable, and optimism is back, but not overheated. It’s not 2021 euphoria, just steady confidence built on real macro shifts. Stay focused, manage risk, and don’t rush. The setup looks bullish for now, but caution still pays. TheCryptoFire
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheCryptoFire
GOLD (XAU/USD): FED DOVISHNESS FUELS BREAKOUT! WHERE TO LONG?📰 Fundamental Analysis: The Main Driver (MUST READ) The macroeconomic winds are strongly pushing Gold higher: Rate Cut Expectations: The market is currently pricing in over 60% probability of another Fed rate cut in December. Lower rates weaken the USD and eliminate the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold. Weak Economic Data: The US Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan plunged to 50.3 (lowest since June 2022). This weak reading supports the narrative of a slowing economy, bolstering the case for a more dovish Fed. 💡 Key Event This Week: Focus shifts to FOMC member speeches on Wednesday (following the Tuesday bank holiday) for confirmation on the future rate path. 📊 Technical Analysis: The Perfect Setup Gold has executed a decisive Breakout from its consolidation range (4,044 - 4,060), confirming a structural shift to a Bullish Trend. Waiting for the Long Entry: DO NOT CHASE THE PRICE! Be patient and wait for a pullback to the Demand Zone/CP (4,081 - 4,114). This is the optimal area for Bulls to enter and follow the trend. Targets (TP): If the CP zone holds, potential targets are 4,155, 4,185, and the higher objective at 4,236. Stop-Loss (SL): Place safely below the old breakout level at 4,044. 🎯 Strategy Summary Strategy: Wait to Buy (Long) in the 4,081 - 4,114 region. Risk Note: Caution if price breaks and closes below 4,044. #XAUUSD #Gold #FedRateCut #Breakout #TechnicalAnalysis #FOMC #TradingSetup
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
GBPCHF - APPROACHES KEY DEMAND ZONESymbol - GBPCHF GBPCHF continues to correct, forming lower-lows amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and US policy concerns. The currency pair remains within a bearish structure, yet it is now approaching a critical demand zone located near 1.0555 – 1.0530, where a potential reaction from buyers could emerge. Despite the prevailing downside momentum, the pair is entering a zone of interest that may attract bullish activity. If the bulls succeed in defending this demand zone, a notable reversal from these levels could follow. Resistance levels: 1.0560, 1.0535 Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0647, 1.0685 If the price fails to hold above the current support and liquidity zone highlighted in the chart, another wave of selling could develop. Although, given the existing market context, the probability of a deeper decline appears limited.
Long
by akshit_official
AUDNZD - EXTENDS RALLY AMID HAWKISH RBA TONESymbol - AUDNZD AUDNZD continues to hold its upward momentum, supported by fundamental divergence between the two economies. The Australian dollar remains strong and has been outperforming the New Zealand dollar since the RBNZ implemented an aggressive 50 basis-point rate cut, while the RBA has stayed on hold due to persistent inflation concerns. Today’s move is largely driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish tone, which has further strengthened the AUD. The pair has been trending higher without any notable pullbacks or corrections, and several technical indicators now suggest potential exhaustion in the ongoing uptrend. A possible reversal setup could form if price action begins to show rejection patterns near key resistance zones, offering short-term trading opportunities. Resistance levels: 1.1485, 1.1500 Support levels: 1.1427, 1.1378 However, keep in mind that if the RBA issues any additional hawkish statements or policy measures, it could further boost AUD strength - potentially driving AUDNZD higher before any meaningful correction takes place.
Short
by akshit_official
9
GBP/USD – Rejection at Key Resistance Zone SignalsGBP/USD – Rejection at Key Resistance Zone Signals Potential Bearish Reversal The GBP/USD pair on the H1 timeframe shows clear rejection from the resistance area around 1.3140 – 1.3160, suggesting that bullish momentum may be weakening. After testing this supply zone multiple times without a breakout, the market is now showing signs of a potential short-term bearish correction. Technical Analysis: The price has failed to sustain above the neckline of a previous “Cup” structure, confirming resistance strength. A series of lower highs has formed, indicating a possible shift in short-term market sentiment. The break below 1.3130 opens the door for a move toward the 1.3080 – 1.3050 support zone. Trading Plan: Traders can look for sell opportunities on pullbacks toward the 1.3130 – 1.3140 area for better risk-to-reward setups. Entry: 1.3135Stop loss: 1.3165 Take profit: 1.3080 – 1.3050 If bearish momentum continues to build, GBP/USD could extend further downside before any possible rebound. Follow for more daily trade setups and market breakdowns — save this idea if it helps refine your strategy.
by Henrybillion
Buffett to Shareholders: “I’m Going Quiet”Buffett to Shareholders: “I’m Going Quiet” Legendary investor Warren Buffett, the 95-year-old head of Berkshire Hathaway, has marked the end of an era by publishing what he called his “final letter” to shareholders on 10 November. The “Oracle of Omaha” announced that he is “going quiet”, bringing to a close his famous annual essays that have guided generations of investors for nearly six decades. In this letter, Buffett: → noted that he will continue to communicate with shareholders through an “annual Thanksgiving message”; → announced a new $1.3 billion donation to four family foundations; → paid tribute to the late Charlie Munger and reflected on the “incredible luck” that has shaped his life. Buffett also confirmed that his successor, Greg Abel, will formally assume the role of CEO by the end of 2025, expressing full confidence in the man who will oversee the legacy of one of the world’s greatest investors. Technical Analysis of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) The technical outlook for Berkshire Hathaway’s Class B shares (BRK.B) in 2025 appears mixed. In spring, the stock faced two downward catalysts: → April: announcement of new tariffs by Donald Trump; → May: a quarterly earnings report that fell short of expectations. Since then, BRK.B has formed a descending channel, within which: → a key low (point A) was established; → a strong August report sparked a confident rebound towards the channel’s upper boundary (point B); → that upper boundary has since acted as persistent resistance. Given these developments, it is reasonable to assume that: → the move from B → C could represent a correction following the earlier A → B impulse; → the $488 level, which shows signs of support, may enable the bulls to break through resistance and resume the longer-term uptrend. This analysis of BRK.B can be summed up with Buffett’s final piece of advice — one that transcends markets: “Kindness costs nothing, but it is priceless.” This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:BRK.B
by FXOpen
1
XAUUSD 2 scenariosXAU/USD – Gold Outlook (Two Scenarios) Today I’m watching two possible scenarios for gold: 1️⃣ Technical View: After yesterday’s strong rally, gold may need a pullback to collect liquidity before continuing higher — no real correction has occurred yet. A retracement could offer better long entry opportunities around support zones. 2️⃣ Fundamental View: Despite the overextended move, bullish momentum could continue, driven by optimism over a potential U.S. Senate deal to end the government shutdown. Such an agreement could weaken the USD and boost risk sentiment, favoring further gains in gold. 💡 Summary: Technically expecting a short correction, but fundamentals remain bullish, keeping the 4,100 level in sight if positive news confirms.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Dan-Goldfx
Repsol Reaches Seven-Year HighsRepsol Reaches Seven-Year Highs: Market Strength and Upside Potential in 2025 By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Repsol continues to consolidate its leadership within the Ibex 35 after posting a 16% gain over the past three weeks, reaching €16.40 per share, levels not seen since 2018. So far in 2025, the oil company has accumulated a 41% revaluation, outperforming the Spanish benchmark index and confirming its solid performance despite a less favorable energy environment. Fundamental Analysis During the first nine months of the year, Repsol reported a net profit of €1.177 billion, down 34.3% year-on-year, affected by the decline in crude oil prices, which have fallen from $82 to $64 per barrel (-22%). Nonetheless, the company maintains a solid financial structure, a healthy balance sheet, and an attractive dividend yield of 6.4% for 2026, following confirmation of a €0.50 per share payment in January and another likely distribution in July. The market views positively Repsol’s ability to generate cash flow even under lower oil prices, along with its diversification into renewables and biofuels, factors that strengthen its sustainable profile and appeal to institutional investors. Several Spanish and European banks have highlighted its attractiveness, emphasizing shareholder remuneration and its positioning in exploration and production projects for 2026–2027. Market consensus places the target price between €18 and €20, maintaining an optimistic tone. The strategic review scheduled for March 2026 will be key in defining the company’s next growth phase. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, Repsol confirmed a bullish breakout late last week after surpassing €16.18, consolidating its upward trend. However, Monday’s bearish candle close suggests a potential temporary ceiling within the current move. The key support lies at €16.03, followed by the 50-day moving average, which—if maintained—would reinforce the continuation of buying momentum. The next technical target is set around €17.00, while a sustained break below €15.60 could trigger a corrective phase toward the €15.00–14.80 area. In terms of indicators, the RSI has eased from 78.4% to 73.3%, reflecting a slight moderation in momentum, while the MACD remains positive, suggesting a sideways consolidation phase before a potential medium-term bullish continuation. Conclusion Repsol remains one of the strongest companies in the Ibex 35, combining solid fundamentals, a high dividend yield, and a constructive technical setup. Short-term profit-taking may occur, but as long as the stock holds above key support levels, the underlying bullish trend remains intact. Looking ahead to 2026, the strategic review and the global energy context will be decisive in determining whether Repsol can consolidate above the €17–18 range, paving the way for new cycle highs. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
BME:REPLong
by ActivTrades
Gold Rejection Ahead – Short-Term Pullback LikelyFundamental Analysis: OANDA:XAUUSD remains under pressure as major central banks, including the Fed, ECB, and BOE, hold rates steady, keeping global monetary conditions tight and real yields elevated. The strong U.S. dollar, supported by solid GDP growth at 3.8% and inflation near 3%, continues to weigh on the metal’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. While speculative positioning in the latest COT report shows funds still heavily net-long, new buying momentum is slowing, indicating exhaustion among bullish traders. With no signs of imminent rate cuts or major risk-off sentiment, gold is likely to stay capped near resistance and trade in a corrective or consolidative range in the short term, unless weaker U.S. data or a dovish policy shift reignites demand. Technical Analysis: FXOPEN:XAUUSD is showing signs of exhaustion near the **$4,050 resistance zone**, forming a **corrective rising channel** with weakening momentum. A rejection from this level could trigger a pullback toward **$3,900–$3,840 support**, while a daily close above **$4,128** would invalidate the bearish setup. Overall bias: **short-term bearish / corrective** within the current strong-USD environment. Week Targets: 3900-3840
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by rTrader_official
1
Right now, I've discovered another market opportunity.We publicly pointed out that we should pay close attention to the resistance in the 4100-4120 range. After encountering resistance, a pullback was expected. The market trend was largely in line with our expectations, with the lowest point reaching around 4074. We were very satisfied with the substantial profit we achieved. There was indeed some upward movement during the day. This week, we need to focus on the news: Although the market continued its strong performance at the beginning of the week, it was easy to create the illusion that a "sharp rise was about to happen". However, the government shutdown is now in its final countdown, so we need to be wary of potential risks. Once the shutdown ends, the market may see a significant pullback. Since relevant news has already released signals, we should remain rational about the recent rise and not blindly follow the trend. There is always something fishy going on, so it is better to be cautious. For more detailed instructions, please refer to the notification at the bottom. From a technical perspective, gold has repeatedly faced resistance near 4110 after breaking through 4100. It is severely overbought in the short term and shows signs of a potential top. I personally do not recommend continuing to buy at this high level to avoid a sharp drop, which is a common market shakeout pattern. Therefore, my strategy remains to prioritize short-term shorting. From the current structure, 4100 has not truly stabilized. Do not blindly and aggressively chase the upward trend. Focus on short-term adjustments and seize opportunities to trade within the time frame. Short positions can be initiated in the 4100-4120 range, with a target of 10-40 USD. The key support level to watch is 4050-4030, which can be considered as a range for buying on dips and medium- to long-term positions. It is best to remain on the sidelines and not participate in positions in the middle range. The 4100-4120 range remains a key focus for short-term bears. Market trends don't only rise or only fall. If you grasp the opportunities well, every phase can be a chance. Generally speaking, don't blindly chase the rise when you're bullish. Flexibly manage the rhythm of primarily long positions and secondarily short positions, and follow the trend to achieve steady success.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Daniel_PrimeFX
GOLD surpasses $4,140/ounce, signaling a new cycleOANDA:XAUUSD continued to climb in the Asian session on November 11, trading around $4,148/ounce, up $32 in the morning alone, after rising nearly 3% in the previous session. The two-day rally, the strongest since May, reflects the defensive sentiment of global investors in the face of a weakening US economic outlook and the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) soon shifting monetary policy. Bloomberg said gold maintained its gains after the US Senate approved a bipartisan deal to end the longest government shutdown in history, supported by President Donald Trump. The bill is expected to pass the House of Representatives this week by a 60-40 vote, paving the way for the resumption of work for hundreds of thousands of federal workers and stalled food aid. The political situation has eased somewhat, but investors remain cautious. The reopening of the government means that a slew of delayed economic data will soon be released, which could shed more light on the growth picture. Bloomberg analysts said the upcoming data “are likely to show a worsening economic outlook,” reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut sooner than expected. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is now above 65%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Falling bond yields and a weak dollar have pushed money back into gold, the traditional safe haven, especially as the global rate-hike cycle ends and US fiscal risks emerge. In the international market, gold is still up more than 50% since the beginning of the year, despite a short-term correction last month. Net buying from central banks, especially in Asia and the Middle East, and increased physical gold investment in the private sector, continue to be the core drivers for the prolonged bull cycle. Commentary: Gold’s Return as a Barometer of US Economic Confidence Gold’s November rally was more than a short-term political response. It reflected a deeper shift in global market sentiment: that the US dollar is losing its primacy amid rising debt, fiscal spending and domestic political divisions. While U.S. stock markets hover around historic highs, institutional investors are beginning to rebalance their portfolios in a defensive direction, increasing their exposure to precious metals and government bonds. At the same time, central banks in China, India and Turkey continue to accumulate gold, a move that makes both financial and geopolitical sense, as they seek to reduce their dependence on the dollar payment system. If the Fed does ease later in the year, gold could consolidate above $4,000 an ounce as a new price level, while risk assets face correction pressure. In an era where U.S. financial stability is no longer a given, the precious metal is returning to its old role as a gauge of confidence in the U.S. currency and government. Technical analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold prices are consolidating above the $3,970–$3,850/oz support zone, after bouncing back from the 0.382 Fibonacci line ($3,972) and remaining within the rising price channel (channel a) formed since July. The price structure suggests that a correction has been completed, as the recovery in buying pressure pushed the price above the short-term MA around $4,055, towards the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $4,128, which is currently a key short-term resistance zone. The RSI has recovered from the 40 zone to near 60, indicating a return of bullish momentum, while recent daily candles have all closed above the medium-term uptrend line. A firm close above $4,130 could confirm the bullish trend, opening a new bullish cycle with the next target at $4,216, and further to the $4,380/oz zone, the upper end of the current price channel. Conversely, a loss of $3,940 would weaken the bullish structure and send gold back to the $3,850–$3,870 accumulation zone. • Observation: Gold is showing signs of forming a new base above the $4,000 area, reinforcing the scenario of a medium-term bullish cycle if it breaks the $4,130 resistance. Short-term profit-taking pressure may appear, but the main trend is currently leaning positive in the second half of November. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4180 - 4178⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4184 →Take Profit 1 4172 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4166 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4088 - 4090⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4084 →Take Profit 1 4096 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4102
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H2 | A corrective move may occur todayLiamTrading – XAUUSD H2 | A corrective move may occur today Follow Liquidity 4090, FVG 4053–4069 & VAH ~4025 Quick note: Gold remains in an uptrend but shows signs of stalling at the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Amid the backdrop of potential USD fluctuations as the US nears reopening, a technical correction towards liquidity zones is a scenario to prepare for. Technical Analysis Trendline/Price Channel: Price is moving within an ascending channel; the channel top at 4130–4140 is prone to profit-taking/stalling. Liquidity: 4085–4092 – a price pull/volume attraction point before choosing the next direction. FVG #1: 4053–4069 – a price gap with a probability of filling and reversing. VAH (Volume Profile): 4023–4028 – volume value peak; strong confluence support in case of a deep correction. POC: ~3985–3990 – a magnetic point if the market weakens more than expected. Resistance: 4135–4140 (near channel top + short-term offer), further out 4166 (Fibo/channel top extension). Fibonacci: The latest upward wave shows the expansion area around 4135–4166 as a “liquidity pocket” – suitable for scalp sell upon clear rejection; retracement levels 0.382–0.5 converge around 406x–402x, aligning with FVG & VAH → preferred buy point if price corrects. Trading Scenarios Buy shallow pullback (trend-following) Entry: 4083–4085 SL: 4077 TP: 4098 → 4112 → 4140 → 4166 Note: Requires rejection/candle wick at Liquidity 4090; move SL to breakeven at +1R. Buy deep at VAH/Volume Profile Entry: 4025–4028 SL: 4020 TP: 4040 → 4065 → 4100 → 4112 Note: Prioritize when FVG 4053–4069 fills and reverses; exercise caution with volume. Sell scalp at channel resistance (counter-trend) Entry: 4135–4140 SL: 4148 TP: 4122 → 4105 → 4090 Note: This is a scalp trade; abandon if H1/H2 closes strongly above 4140. H1/H2 closes below 4077 → risk of testing 4053–4069; further breach of 4020 may drag to POC ~3990. Each trade risks 0.5–1%, do not average down against the trend; adhere to Dow (enter only upon confirmed support/resistance break on entry timeframe). What level are you watching for gold today? Comment below & hit Follow on LiamTrading channel for the fastest updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX