Fundamental Analysis
British pound hits two-month high, UK job dataThe British pound has started the new trading week in positive territory. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3591, up 0.26% on the day. Earlier, the pound hit a daily high of 1.3620, its highest level since July 10.
The UK releases employment data on Tuesday. Claimant counts is expected to jump to 20.3 thousand in August, after a rare decline in July which saw claimant counts decline by 6.2 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.7% for a third straight time, its highest level in four years.
Wage growth including bonuses is expected to rise to 4.7%, up from 4.6% in the previous release, which was the lowest pace in nine months.
It's a busy week in the UK, with the inflation report on Wednesday and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. The BoE is expected to maintain rates at 4.0% after last month's narrow 5-4 decision to lower rates. Governor Bailey has said rates would move "downwards gradually over time" but hasn't provided any details as to the timing or extent of cuts.
The UK may have already entered stagflation, which is a toxic mix of persistently high inflation, weak growth and rising unemployment. This presents a major headache for the BoE, as weak growth supports a rate cut while high inflation could get worse if the BoE reduces rates.
The central bank is hesitant to lower rates with inflation close to 4%, but may have to cut before the end of the year if the labor market continues to deteriorate. Tuesday's job report is unlikely to change minds at the BoE, which is expected to hold rates. Still, it could be a factor in the November rate decision.
GBPUSD has pushed above resistance at 1.3564 and is testing 1.3589 Above, there is resistance at 1.3605
There is support at 1.3548
BTCUSD – Watching 114 774 Support After Weekend TP HitWeekend bearish target was met and the first profit zone is complete.
Now the key is whether price can keep the 4-hour candle body above 114 774.
That level is the line in the sand.
I’ll look for 15-minute confirmation before any long entry.
New York open could give a sharp spike in either direction—stay alert.
Trade the reaction, not the prediction.
Gold - How High Will It GO?📢 NFX Market Update – FX:XAUUSD
TVC:GOLD just broke out of the bullish flag formation on the hourly timeframe, pushing through key resistance with conviction. This breakout signals strong bullish momentum and supports the continuation of the uptrend, especially as it aligns with our ABC Elliott Wave structure.
If buyers sustain this momentum, new highs could be printed ahead of Wednesday’s FED rate decision, with potential for an even stronger rally post-decision - similar to the price action observed during the recent NFP release.
I remain bullish on gold here, but I’d love to hear your views as well in the comment below.
More insights are covered in the video.
Gold market remains firmly bullishThe gold market remains firmly bullish following the latest economic data release, which came with no surprises. Unemployment claims surged to 265,000, signaling a weaker labor market — a negative for the U.S. dollar. In response, gold extended its rally, pumping into the 3670’s.
<<>>Key Highlights:
Unemployment Claims: 265K (bearish USD)
Market Reaction: Bullish gold momentum
Current High: 3670’s
gold market bullish trajectory continues Gold market opens the new week maintaining its bullish trajectory, building on last week’s hedge formation fueled by inflation data and elevated unemployment claims. Momentum remains tilted to the upside as buyers look to extend control.
🔑 Key insights .:
Previous Hedge: Formed last week on inflation & labor data
Bias: Bullish continuation
Focus: Sustained momentum above key demand zones
Wix | WIX | Long at $124.35NASDAQ:WIX is a company with steady growth projections driven by AI adoption, market expansion, user acquisition, and a focus on profitability. For example, earnings are forecast to grow 28.24% per year. Analysts project NASDAQ:WIX to achieve approximately $1 billion in free cash flow by 2028. While the current P/E is around 47x, its Forward P/E ratio is approximately 18x (potentially undervalued). I truly believe the changing economy will shift individuals into more entrepreneurship (what else can they do?) and that will be the driving force behind user growth.
From a technical analysis view, the price recently bounced off from my historical simple moving average band (often an area for share accumulation / consolidation). While it may trickle down to close the price gap on the daily chart near $110 in the near-term, I think the outlook needs to be long-term here given the projections. The only issue I see is the current high debt for NASDAQ:WIX , but interest rates are absolutely coming down soon which will help ease the strain.
Thus, at $124.35, NASDAQ:WIX is in a personal buy zone.
Targets into 2028:
$175.00 (+40.7%)
$250.00 (+101.1%)
Gold tests key resistanceGold is approaching a key resistance zone around 3,656 – 3,675, where the market could ignite a new directional move. At this stage, a decisive breakout or a breach of support will likely determine the next path for XAUUSD.
On the H4 chart, price has shown a strong upward sequence and is now consolidating just beneath resistance at 3,674. The immediate support to watch lies between 3,600 – 3,575. Should gold hold this area, buying interest may soon return and push price above 3,674, opening the way for further upside.
Conversely, a break below 3,575 would increase corrective pressure, potentially dragging price towards the liquidity zone near 3,512 – which also aligns with the FVG (Buy Zone). This level is seen as a critical area where the market could re-establish balance before setting a clearer trend. Further down, the 3,451 – 3,440 zone also remains an area where buyers may look to step in.
BTDR US ( Bitdeer Technologies Group) Long#Invest #US #BTDR #BTC #USDT
Bitdeer Technologies Group
Demonstrates Growth Through a Combination of Operational Improvements, Industry Trends, and Strategic Initiatives
Now, in order:
Bitdeer reported a significant 56.8% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2025 to $155.6 million. This growth was driven by a 42% increase in mining revenue and mining hardware sales
The company increased its monthly bitcoin mining volume by 45.6% in April 2025 compared to March
The rise in the price of bitcoin has directly impacted the profitability of Bitdeer's mining operations
Tether, the issuer of USDT , increased its stake in Bitdeer to 21.4% in March 2025, and then to over 24% in April
The company is actively expanding its energy and data center capacity. 361 MW of capacity has been commissioned since the beginning of 2025, with the total available electrical capacity reaching 1.3 GW. This is expected to increase to 1.6 GW by the end of the year
Bitdeer has confirmed that it is on track to reach its own hashrate of 40 EH/s by the end of October 2025, and plans to exceed this figure by the end of the year
The company is focusing on the SEALMINER A4 project, which aims to achieve unprecedented chip efficiency of around 5 J/Th
Bitdeer plans to set up a production line in the US
Bitdeer held 1,502 bitcoins (worth around $170 million at the time) at the end of Q2 2025, up significantly from 113 BTC the year before
FUBO US LongFuboTV (FUBO) has shown significant growth recently, and there are several reasons for this.
In Q2 2025, FuboTV reported
EPS of $0.05, which exceeded analysts' forecasts (-$0.05)
Revenue of $371.3 million, also above expectations ($353.72 million)
The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time at $20.7 million
Net loss narrowed to $8 million compared to $25.8 million a year ago
Recent partnerships with DAZN (NFL and UEFA Champions League broadcast rights)
Debt reduction is slow
The number of shares outstanding is increasing
multipliers are low due to the described disadvantages
OCF and FCF entered the positive area. This will limit further additional share issues.
All this has led to improvements in investor sentiment in this issuer.
We will join the long
3 Meme Coins To Watch In The Second Week Of SeptemberDogecoin price is trading at $0.262 after slipping below the $0.273 support level. Despite this decline, the meme coin leader continues to flash bullish cues, suggesting momentum could still favor recovery. Investors remain focused on whether DOGE can reclaim lost ground and restart its upward trajectory.
The 50-day EMA is diverging upward from the 200-day EMA, a signal of strengthening bullish momentum. This technical pattern often precedes price rebounds. If momentum holds, Dogecoin could reclaim $0.273 as support and push higher toward the $0.287 resistance, attracting stronger investor confidence in the short term.
However, risks remain if DOGE holders decide to offload their positions. Profit-taking could weigh heavily on the token, driving its price lower. In that scenario, Dogecoin could fall toward the $0.241 support level, invalidating the bullish thesis and potentially sparking further downside pressure.
SOL Parabolic Run Despite the recent chop, when you zoom out to the 1D timeframe there is a clear pattern being followed since the April crash.
From the sub $100 low Solana has posted progressively higher lows in a parabolic fashion. The highs on the other hand are in more of a linear fashion as shown by the diagonal S/R level, at first it provided support and now since March it has been resistance.
So for me there are two possible actionable trades:
- Continuation of the parabolic move, this would include flipping the Diagonal S/R level, currently at time of writing this resistance level is being tested, a close above gives a better possibility of the rally continuing.
- The rally becomes exhausted and fails to flip the Diagonal S/R and loses the parabolic support level. Should this support break $185 is the first target (light green zone), $160 as the second target (dark green zone).
Important to remember we have CPI & FOMC rapidly approaching that could provide the volatility to trigger either of these moves, lets see what happens next.
Bitcoin Price’s Grip on $115,000 Weakens—Here's the RiskBitcoin is trading at $114,770, slipping below the $115,000 support level in the process. Should bearish sentiment persist, BTC may fall further, potentially testing the uptrend line that has supported its rise since the start of the month. This would mark a crucial point for investors.
If selling pressure intensifies, Bitcoin could struggle to hold $115,000 as support and slide toward $112,500. This would represent a critical setback, reinforcing the ongoing distribution phase observed among holders and limiting near-term upside potential for BTC.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin absorbs the selling pressure and regains momentum, reclaiming $115,000 as support could trigger another rally. In this case, BTC would target $117,261 in the coming days, reaffirming its bullish outlook and reinforcing investor confidence.
SHIB Swing Long Idea - MemecoinSHIB Swing Long Idea
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains strongly bullish as the FED is expected to deliver a 0.25% rate cut, with speculation building for a possible 0.5% cut in September. Monetary policy shifts are being driven by both inflation trends and weakening labor market data. The latest August and September job reports were soft, signaling that the economy is cooling rapidly. This environment continues to fuel expectations for a major bullish run in the weeks ahead.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price ran the HTF liquidity and got rejection from there.
Price created the Daily Demand after the run which confirms the price wants to seek higher liquidity.
Price made its first retest to Daily Demand and got rejection there, indicating that Daily Demand is valid and likely to send price higher.
Price is also supported by the Weekly Demand zone.
📌 Game Plan
1. Price to come back and retest the Weekly Demand zone at 0.0125$
2. Price to come back and retest the Daily Demand zone at 0.0117$
3. Price to run Equal Lows (purple line – 0.0117$) and close back above
4. Price to hit the 0.75 most discounted range level
🎯 Setup Trigger
I will be looking for a 4H break of structure before entering any position.
📋 Trade Management
Stoploss: Below the 4H swing low responsible for BOS
Targets:
• TP1: 0.0149$
• TP2: 0.016$
• TP3: 0.0175$
💬 Like, follow, and comment if you find this setup valuable!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions.
BTC vs 116.7k–118k: breakout or FOMC rejection?__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is pinned below the 116.2k–118k supply after rebounding from ~107k, defending the 115.16k pivot. It’s a range-to-break with elevated intraday volumes against a cautious macro backdrop.
Momentum: Range with a mild bullish tilt 📈 while 115.16k holds; a clean breakout needs > 116.74k.
Key levels:
- Resistances (4H/12H/D) : 116.18k–116.74k · 118.0k–118.8k · 124.28k (D).
- Supports (2H/4H/W) : 115.16k–115.20k · 114.16k · 111.97k.
Volumes: Normal on 1D; very high on 1H/30m/15m — a catalyst for a box breakout from 115.2k–116.2k.
Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H = Up; 6H/4H/1H = NEUTRAL BUY above 115.16k; 2H = NEUTRAL SELL — a close above 116.74k adds upside conviction; losing 114.16k reopens 111.97k.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE — a slight risk-off stance that contradicts the tactical bullish momentum; demand confirmations and smaller size.
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Trading Playbook
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Strategic context: Higher-timeframe uptrend (12H/1D) but facing a tight 116.2k–118k supply wall — favor staged execution and confirmed breakouts.
Global bias: Slight long bias while 115.16k holds; higher-timeframe invalidation on a clean daily close < 111.97k.
Opportunities:
- Long on breakout: Close/retest held > 116.74k aiming 118k/120k.
- Tactical “buy-the-dip”: Reclaim of 115.20k after a sweep, stop below 114.16k.
- Tactical short: Rejection at 116.7k–118k OR 30m/1H breakdown < 114.75k targeting 114.16k then 111.97k.
Risk zones / invalidations:
- Break below 114.16k invalidates intraday longs and opens 111.97k.
- Strong reclaim > 116.40k–116.74k invalidates rejection shorts.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- FOMC: 25 bps cut widely expected; dot-plot and presser = volatility triggers; “sell-the-news” risk.
- US Retail Sales (pre-Fed): could tilt the box breakout.
- Softer China data: growth headwind; keeps risk appetite uneven.
Action plan:
- Long Plan : Entry 115.30–115.90 (reclaim/breakout) · Stop 114.16 · TP1 116.18 · TP2 116.74 · TP3 118.00 · R/R ≈ 1.5–3.0.
- Short Plan : Entry 116.10–116.70 (rejection) or < 114.75 (breakdown) · Stop 116.90–117.00 (rejection) / 115.17 (breakdown) · TP1 115.16 · TP2 114.16 · TP3 111.97 · R/R ≈ 1.5–2.5.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
Higher timeframes lean up, but the supply band at 116.2k–118k caps momentum.
1D/12H: Uptrend, compressing below 116.7k; a daily close > 118k would open 120k.
6H/4H/1H: Active range 115.16k ↔ 116.18/116.74k; buy-the-dip works above 115.16k if volumes confirm; intraday is whip-prone.
2H/30m/15m: 115.16k is the hinge; very high volumes create wicks — wait for clean retests; ISPD/MTFTI favor scalps while 115.16k is defended.
Key divergence: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = NEUTRE VENTE vs MTFTI Up — keep size modest and demand follow-through post-break.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
__________________________________________________________________________________
FOMC is the key macro catalyst in a hesitant risk-on regime, while on-chain/flows remain more subdued than euphoric phases.
Macro events: 25 bps cut expected; dot-plot and Powell Q&A as triggers; “sell-the-news” possible. US Retail Sales can pre-position flows; softer China data is a growth headwind.
Bitcoin analysis: Pressing the upper band (116.4k) and 116.7k–118k supply; a clean close above 118k opens >120k; a decisive loss of 115k reopens 114.16k → 111.97k.
On-chain data: ETF flows declining, derivatives more influential; range 110k–116k — sustained holds above 114k attract flows; below 108k raises HTF downside risk.
Expected impact: Macro/on-chain mix argues for “confirmation first, size second”; it supports a cautious bias until > 116.74k breaks with volume.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is coiling just below 116.7k–118k into FOMC week.
- Trend: Higher-timeframe bullish but capped; slight risk-off background (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = NEUTRE VENTE).
- Prime setup: Confirmed breakout > 116.74k (retest held) toward 118k/120k; alternatively, a break < 114.16k puts 111.97k back in play.
- Macro: FOMC is well priced — first move can be a head fake.
Stay disciplined: seek confirmations and retests, scale in tranches, and let the market show persistence. ⚖️
15/09/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $116,672.39
Last weeks low: $110,615.91
Midpoint: $113,644.15
It's FOMC week and finally the time has come for the FED to cut interest rates, but by how much?
Currently the probability of a cut is 100%. The chance of a 25bps cut is ~90%, a 50bps cut ~12%.
Therefore I believe a 25bps cut is priced in and expected by the majority, a 50bps cut would be bullish and no change would be devastating to the markets in the short term.
Last week BTC continues its move up and flipped the important S/R level of $114,000 in preparation for FOMC. Ultimately the bulls should now target a flip of $117,500 to continue the larger bullrun move. Should the bulls fail to do so the rangebound environment looks to continue with the low being $106,000 (1D 200 EMA).
As I have mentioned in previous post September often gives poor returns, so far this year BTC is up 6% from month open, perhaps in anticipation for the rate cut to come? I don't see many setups presenting themselves until after Thursday so just being patient until then.
Good luck this week everybody!
JIO FINANCIALSJio Financial Services Ltd. (currently trading at ₹316) is the financial arm of Reliance Industries, spun off to create a full-stack digital financial ecosystem. It operates across lending, insurance, payments, asset management, and reinsurance. With deep integration into Reliance’s consumer platforms, Jio Finance aims to serve underserved segments across urban, semi-urban, and rural India. The company has launched the JioFinance App, offering UPI, loans, insurance, tax filing, and investment products. It also operates Jio Payments Bank, and has entered into strategic joint ventures with BlackRock (AMC) and Allianz (reinsurance), positioning itself as a next-gen financial powerhouse.
Jio Financial Services Ltd. – FY22–FY25 Snapshot
• Sales – ₹417 Cr → ₹612 Cr → ₹850 Cr → ₹1,100 Cr Growth driven by lending, insurance broking
• Net Profit – ₹312 Cr → ₹325 Cr → ₹420 Cr → ₹540 Cr Earnings supported by NII growth and fee income
• Operating Performance – Moderate → Strong → Strong → Strong NIM expansion and operating leverage from tech platforms
• Dividend Yield (%) – 0.00% → 0.00% → 0.00% → 0.00% No payouts; reinvestment-focused strategy
• Equity Capital – ₹6,500 Cr (constant) No dilution; strong capital base post demerger
• Total Debt – ₹0 Cr (debt-free) Fully equity-financed operations
• Fixed Assets – ₹1,200 Cr → ₹1,350 Cr → ₹1,500 Cr → ₹1,650 Cr Capex focused on tech stack, data infra, and AMC expansion
Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends
Promoter holding stands at 47.00% via Reliance Industries. FIIs and DIIs have actively accumulated post demerger, citing platform potential and strategic partnerships. Delivery volumes reflect long-term positioning by fintech, AMC, and digital consumption-focused funds.
Business Growth Verdict
Jio Finance is scaling across lending, insurance, AMC, and reinsurance Margins improving due to platform monetization and NII growth Debt-free structure supports flexibility and reinvestment Capex supports long-term competitiveness and financial inclusion
Management Con Call
• Q1 FY26 revenue rose 46.6% YoY to ₹612 Cr; PAT up 3.8% YoY to ₹325 Cr • Net Interest Income jumped 52% YoY to ₹264 Cr; total income ₹619 Cr1 • JV with Allianz for reinsurance launched (Allianz Jio Reinsurance Ltd) • Jio BlackRock AMC launched 8 funds; AUM crossed ₹17,000 Cr2 • FY26 outlook: 30–35% revenue growth, AMC scale-up, and reinsurance approvals pending
Final Investment Verdict
Jio Financial Services Ltd. offers a high-growth digital finance story built on platform scale, strategic partnerships, and deep consumer integration. Its improving profitability, zero debt, and multi-vertical expansion make it suitable for accumulation by investors seeking exposure to India’s fintech, AMC, and insurance evolution.
The Stop-Loss Dilemma: Tight vs. Loose and When to Use EachToday we talk about stop losses. Love them or hate them, but don’t forget them, especially when things get wild out there.
Some traders think of them as the trading equivalent of a safety net: you hope you’ll never need it, but when you slip off the tightrope, you’re grateful it’s there to catch you.
Others believe they’re like training wheels that you can ditch when you think you’ve made it. But no matter your style, every trader eventually faces the same question: tight stop or loose stop?
Let’s unpack.
🎯 What a Stop Loss Really Is
At its core, a stop loss is an exit plan for the bad times (or learning times if you prefer). It’s not about being right, it’s about how wrong you want to be. You set a price level that says: “If the market gets here, I don’t want to be in this trade anymore.” That’s it.
The dilemma starts when you realize how wide that safety net should be. Too tight, and you’re out of trades faster than you can say “fakeout.”
That usually happens when the market gets too tough, especially around big news releases. But that’s why you have the Economic Calendar .
Too loose, and you risk turning a small misstep into a full-blown account drain.
📏 The Case for Tight Stops
Tight stops are for the traders who believe in precision. Think scalpers, intraday traders, or anyone not willing to take overnight risk, especially in the unpredictable corners of the crypto universe . These stops are fast, efficient, and don’t have any tolerance for error.
And it happens quick: if you still have your position an hour or two later, you know you’ve survived.
Pros:
Keeps losses small. Risk per trade is limited.
Forces you to be disciplined with entries (you need good timing).
Frees up capital for more setups since each trade risks a relatively small amount.
Cons:
Markets love to hunt tight stops. Wiggles, noise, and random candles can boot you out of a perfectly good trade.
Requires near-perfect timing. Short before the upside is over and you’re out.
Can lead to overtrading – you may start seeing opportunities that aren’t really there.
Tight stops can work if you’re trading liquid instruments with clear technical levels. But if you’re placing them under or over every tiny wick, you’re basically donating to the market makers’ La Marzocco fund.
🏝️ The Case for Loose Stops
Loose stops are the opposite vibe. They belong to swing traders, position traders, and anyone who thinks the market needs “room to breathe.” A loose stop gives your trade the flexibility to be wrong in the short term while still right in the long run.
It’s fairly boring trading. You open a relatively small position, you widen the stop and you forget about it.
Pros:
Avoids getting stopped out by random intraday noise.
Lets you capture bigger moves without micromanaging.
Works well in trending markets.
Cons:
You lock up capital if the trade moves sideways, i.e. risk missing out on other moves.
Larger stops mean smaller position sizes (unless you enjoy blowing up accounts).
Can tempt you to “hope and hold” instead of cutting losers early.
Loose stops demand patience and conviction. They’re not an excuse to set a stop 30% away and take a vacation. They’re strategic, placed around real levels of support/resistance, trendlines, or even moving averages.
⚖️ Finding the Balance
The reality? It’s not tight vs. loose – it’s about context. Your stop should reflect:
Timeframe : Scalping the S&P 500 SP:SPX ? Tight. Swing trading Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD ? Looser (notice the double “o”).
Volatility : In calm markets, tighter stops work. In choppy ones (like individual stocks during earnings season ), they’ll get shredded.
Strategy : Breakout traders often need loose stops (false breakouts happen). Mean-reversion traders can keep them tight.
Think of it as tailoring your stop to the market’s mood. A tight stop in a trending, low-volatility stock might be perfect. That same stop in crypto? Time to say goodbye.
📉 The Asymmetric Opportunity
Here’s where stop-loss talk gets spicy: risk-reward ratios . A tight stop with a big upside target creates an asymmetric bet. You risk $1 to make $5 or even $15. The problem is, you’ll get stopped out more often. A loose stop, on the other hand, lowers your win rate risk but demands patience and confidence to ride out volatility.
Neither is better. It’s about whether you want more home runs with strikeouts (tight stops) or steady base hits with fewer fireworks (loose stops).
🧠 The Psychological Trap
Stop losses aren’t just math, they’re psychology. Traders often tighten stops after a bruising loss, thinking they’ll “play it safe.” Then they get stopped out again and again. Others loosen stops out of fear, giving trades space, until their account looks like a shrinking balloon.
The trick? Decide your stop before you enter. Not in the heat of the moment. Not after a candle fakes you out. Plan it. Write it down . Stick to it.
🚦 The Takeaway
Stop losses aren’t about being tight or loose – they’re about being intentional. A good stop loss fits your strategy, your timeframe, and your psychology. It’s a line in the sand that says: “I’ll risk this much to make that much.”
Next time you set a stop, are you protecting your capital or just trying to feel safe? Because the market doesn’t care about your comfort zone – it only respects discipline .
👉 Off to you : do you keep your stops tight, loose, or do you freestyle it? Let us know in the comments!
S&P 500 - Retracement overdue?The S&P 500 has statistically exhibited a Seasonal tendency to retrace during September. The further the bullish extension continues, the more aggressive any bearish retracements may become.
Despite a unique set of economic, geopolitical and technical circumstances being present, there is a general tendency to revisit the mean or the larger moving averages.