Black FridayUp to 80% OFF

Fundamental Analysis

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT for 17-21 November 2025XAUUSD: BUY 4085.00, SL 4055.00, TP 4175.00 Gold enters the new week around $4,080 per ounce on Monday, November 17, 2025. The market focus is the release of the Federal Reserve minutes this week and the resumption of delayed U.S. macro data after the government pause ended: this shapes expectations for the future rate path and the dollar’s dynamics. Meanwhile, overall demand for gold is supported by sustained official purchases: according to the World Gold Council, central banks kept net buying elevated in Q3, and October marked a fifth consecutive month of inflows into gold funds. On the supply and alternative-yield side there are no notable new factors; 10-year Treasury yields remain near recent levels, which limits the cost of holding gold but does not negate safe-haven demand. Fundamentally, the week looks moderately favorable for XAUUSD: the minutes may confirm a course toward gradual easing of conditions in 2026, while uncertainty in data and the geopolitical backdrop preserve interest in defensive assets. Risks for buyers include a tougher reading of the minutes and a stronger dollar; supportive factors include steady official purchases, continuing ETF inflows, and stable retail investment demand. In this environment, buying dips with a nearby loss limit is preferred. Trade recommendation: BUY 4085.00, SL 4055.00, TP 4175.00 #SP500: BUY 6735, SL 6685, TP 6885 The S&P 500 starts the week near 6,734 at Friday’s close (November 14), while Monday futures trade modestly higher on expectations for key corporate earnings. The main catalyst is results from the leading producer of AI-focused semiconductors, viewed as a gauge of whether the investment cycle in AI and corporate capex continues. On the macro side, the Fed minutes and the return of several delayed indicators will help refine the monetary-policy path after recent rate cuts. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are holding around 4% with choppy swings, which does not add fresh pressure to equity multiples. The weekly backdrop supports the benchmark: anticipated corporate drivers (AI investment, retailer reports as a read on consumer demand) and reduced data uncertainty as releases resume. Risks include softer guidance on AI capex, a jump in yields, or more cautious signals from the Fed minutes. The base case is a measured continuation of the uptrend if earnings resilience is confirmed and no negative surprises appear in the data. Trade recommendation: BUY 6735, SL 6685, TP 6885 #BRENT: BUY 64.00, SL 61.80, TP 70.60 Brent crude on Monday, November 17, 2025, holds near $64 a barrel as the market digests the resumption of loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk port after a brief halt while reassessing the global supply-demand balance. Recent assessments point to a growing surplus in 2025–2026: agencies note faster output growth alongside moderate demand, while OPEC+ signals readiness to manage supply flexibly against the backdrop of lowered official selling prices for Asia in December. At the same time, geopolitical risks and occasional disruptions periodically restore a risk premium, cushioning the pressure from oversupply. This week, prices will be driven by news on OPEC+ discipline, stock/export data, regulator commentary, and the dollar’s path after the Fed minutes. The base balance is “moderately neutral” with elevated sensitivity to headlines: absent fresh signals of a larger surplus, the market tends to consolidate with potential for a recovery toward the upper end of the range as short positions are covered and risk appetite improves. Key risks to long positions are faster non-OPEC+ supply growth, softer Asian demand, and a lack of geopolitical premium in the news flow. Trade recommendation: BUY 64.00, SL 61.80, TP 70.60
SAXO:XAUUSD
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
BTC corrective map: cluster buys vs 95.7k supply__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC remains in a corrective phase just above 93k after a sequence of lower highs, sitting on stacked demand while overhead supply caps bounces. Momentum is cautious and event-driven; treat key zones like checkpoints in a tough dungeon. Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral drift with sellers fading bounces under 95.7k; 1D holds uptrend but 12H remains down. Key levels: - Resistances (3D/1D/4H): 95,700 (3D), 98,300 (1D), 100,400 (4H pivot zone). - Supports (1D/12H/2–6H/3D): 93,900 (12H–1D floors), 92,900–93,400 (Cluster A, 2H–6H), 90,950 (3D pivot low). Volumes: Moderate overall; notable very high spikes on 15m selloffs. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D Up vs 12H/6H/4H/2H Down; average trend Down. Longs are tactical until 12H flips Up and price reclaims 93,900. Harvest zones: 93,400 (Cluster A) / 93,915–93,924 (Cluster B) — ideal dip-buy zones for inverse pyramiding when ≥2H reversal confirms. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral sell — risk-off tilt that tempers long follow-through, aligning with the corrective momentum. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ With a corrective regime and mixed MTF, stay tactical: favor reactive buying at defined demand with confirmation and fading into first HTF resistance. Global bias: Neutral sell while below 93,900–95,700; invalidation of bearish bias on strong reclaim and hold above 98,300. Opportunities: - Tactical buy: 92,900–93,400 reaction (≥2H reversal) aiming 93,900 → 95,700. - Breakout buy: Acceptance above 93,900 opens 95,700; continuation through 98,300 targets 100,400. - Tactical sell: Fade 95,700 or 98,300 rejections back toward 93,900/93,200. Risk zones / invalidations: - A sustained close below 92,400 hands control to sellers; a break below 90,950 invalidates the long thesis and exposes lower supports. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC Minutes, US jobs, and NVDA earnings could drive acceptance/rejection around 93k clusters. - ETF outflows act as a headwind to durable breakouts. - ECB balanced tone, Japan tax/policy shifts constructive medium term but not immediate. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 93,400 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 89,700–87,800 (-4/-6% below Palier 1) - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (95,700) - Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low (90,900) or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF (95,700) on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Across timeframes, HTF support is dense near price, but LTFs lean down and supply is heavy overhead. 1D: Still Up structurally; sitting on higher-timeframe demand with 93,900 as the nearby reclaim that improves odds toward 95,700/98,300. 12H/6H/4H/2H: Downtrends intact; bounces sold below 95,700; key support cluster at 92,900–93,400 for potential reversals. 1H/30m/15m: Weak intraday structure with sell spikes; liquidity magnets at 92,900 and 91,100–91,300; need strong wick rejections for tactical longs. Major confluence: ISPD Cluster A (92,900–93,400) over AGG ≈ price with 3D pivot low at 90,950 below; together they frame asymmetric long attempts if ≥2H confirms. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed-to-risk-off: ETF outflows, policy/event risk, and stronger USD tone cap upside until reclaimed levels prove persistence. Macro events: FOMC Minutes, US labor data, and Flash PMIs set the near-term volatility path; NVDA earnings can sway risk appetite; ECB is balanced but flags correction risk; Japan’s tax/policy headlines constructive medium term. Bitcoin analysis: Sub-100k/102k regime with 97,500–100,000 as key reclaim to improve structure; below 92,000 opens deeper supports cited by multiple desks. On-chain data: Not provided; flows narrative leans risk-off via ETFs, dampening sustained rallies. Expected impact: Event-driven two-way trade; until 97,500–100,000 is reclaimed, respect downside tails and use confirmed reactions at clusters. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC trades in a corrective environment with dense support beneath and strong supply above. - Trend is neutral-to-bearish short term while 12H remains Down; 1D resilience allows tactical bounces if 93,900 is reclaimed. - Best setup: Confirmed ≥2H reversal in 92,900–93,400, scale out at 93,900 → 95,700; fade 95,700/98,300 if rejection. - Key macro factor: ETF outflows plus FOMC/Jobs/NVDA volatility may decide the next leg. Stay patient, define risk at 90,900, and harvest volatility only on confirmed signals.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
PRE-NY CONDITIONS — 17 November 2025New York inherits a defensive London session: steady Dollar, firm short-end yields, weaker equities, and rising volatility. 1. Market Environment (London → NY Transition) Dollar: DXY holds mid-range near 99.40. No shift in macro tone during London. Yields: US10Y near 4.15%, US2Y near 3.60%. Both stayed contained inside narrow ranges — policy tone unchanged. Risk Tone: ES weakened through London. Volatility elevated. Global tone remains cautious. Liquidity: Thinner into NY as VIX climbs and equities soften. Quick Insight: Stable 2Y = stable policy tone. Rising VIX = cautious liquidity. 2. Six-Chart Snapshot (Operator View) DXY: Mid-range (98.991–99.981), inside-bar structure. No bias until a break. US10Y: Range-bound. Today’s move sits inside a 1.03% range. US2Y: Up 0.64% on low volume — quiet policy tone, data-waiting behavior. ES: Bearish through London with clear rotation lower into NY. Gold: Lower inside daily imbalance. Down 1.46% — weak safety demand. VIX: Up 7.47% — rising volatility regime. 3. Cross-Asset Signals Yields: Stable long-end + firm short-end → Dollar supported. Equities: ES weakness maintains defensive tone. Gold: Lower → no significant safety bid. Volatility: Higher VIX → cautious liquidity and reactive flows. Global Risk: Neutral-to-defensive. 4. Core Drivers for NY • Dollar reaction inside the inside-bar range • Short-end yield firmness (2Y) • ES tone post-NY open • VIX regime (expanding vs contained) • Yield alignment (10Y + 2Y) 5. Execution Notes — CORE5 PEM Follow higher-timeframe direction Ignore noise from earlier sessions Wait for structure + flow alignment Act only on confirmation One-Line Summary NY opens into a defensive setup: steady Dollar, firm yields, weak equities, and rising volatility. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
TVC:US02Y
by CORE5DAN
1
When Crypto Actually MovesCrypto trades around the clock, but the market doesn’t behave the same way at every hour. Volume, liquidity, and volatility cluster around predictable windows, and those windows shape how setups form and how price reacts. When you understand these shifts, you stop taking trades randomly and start aligning execution with the moments when the market truly moves. Why Sessions Matter Even though crypto never sleeps, human traders and institutional desks still operate in cycles. Liquidity providers adjust during business hours. Market makers re-balance at session opens. Macro news is released on a fixed schedule. These patterns create recurring volatility signatures. Ignoring sessions means you treat every candle as equal. Understanding sessions means you add a layer of context that improves timing, risk control, and win rate. Asia Session (00:00–06:00 UTC) The Asia window tends to be slower and more range-bound. Characteristics include: – Moderate liquidity – Clean consolidations – Accumulation before Europe – Fewer impulsive moves unless driven by news from Asia-Pacific regions This period often sets the initial range of the day. Liquidity begins to cluster above highs and below lows, creating the conditions for later sweeps. Europe Session (07:00–12:00 UTC) Liquidity expands significantly as London opens. You often see the first engineered move of the day. Key behaviors: – Early sweeps of the Asia range – Strong breakouts from overnight compression – Directional push before New York volatility This session frequently defines the directional bias into US hours. It’s a prime window for structured setups because market participation rises sharply. US Session (13:00–20:00 UTC) This is the most active window. The highest liquidity and most decisive moves occur here. Typical features: – Strong continuation or full reversal of the London move – Reaction to economic news – Trend acceleration during peak overlap hours This is where major breakouts, deep liquidity hunts, and high-powered moves happen. If you trade momentum or breakout strategies, this session offers the cleanest conditions. Weekend Behavior Weekends operate on thin liquidity. Order books are lighter, market makers are less active, and volatility behaves differently. Common outcomes: – Sharp wicks that violate structure – Sudden spikes without follow-through – False breakouts with immediate reversals Weekend moves often distort technicals. They can be useful for narrative-driven positions but carry higher risk for intraday traders. How to Integrate Sessions Into Your Trading Use sessions to filter when you participate and when you avoid noise. Practical adjustments: – Execute momentum setups during Europe or US hours. – Treat Asia session as a range-building phase suitable for scouting zones. – Avoid taking aggressive positions during weekend chop. – Use session opens as key decision points for liquidity grabs. When you layer session timing on top of structure, you refine entries and eliminate trades that lack the environment for follow-through. The Strategic Advantage of Session Awareness Session timing gives you clarity. You start anticipating where liquidity is likely to be engineered, where volume will enter, and when the market is likely to trend or stall. This transforms your approach. Instead of reacting to candles, you plan around expected volatility cycles. Instead of forcing trades, you wait for session transitions that historically produce reliable movement.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by SamDrnda
21
Unpacking the Henry Hub Rally and the Forces Driving It CME Henry Hub futures have surged since mid-October, reaching levels last seen in December 2022. This is an impressive rally given strong U.S. production and elevated inventories This paper breaks down the key drivers behind the price spike and the market trends that continue to steer Henry Hub futures. Surging LNG Demand Lifts Henry Hub Futures The surge in CME Henry Hub futures was driven by strong export demand and record LNG activity. Flows to the eight major U.S. LNG terminals have averaged around 17.8 bcf/d this month, surpassing October’s record (16.7 bcf/d), as global buyers continue to seek U.S. supply. Source: EIA According to Reuters (via LSEG data), the U.S. became the first nation to export 10.1 million metric tonnes (mmt) of LNG in a single month in October, up from 9.1 mmt in September. Europe remained the top destination, taking 6.9 mmt as the region rebuilt inventories ahead of winter and continued to diversify away from Russian gas. Exports to Asia also climbed, supported by regional growth, energy transition policies, and Taiwan’s phaseout of nuclear power. The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to average 14.9 bcf/d this year (25% higher than 2024) and rise another 10% in 2026. Rising domestic power demand, led by data centres’ soaring electricity use, adds another layer of structural support to gas consumption. Together, robust export growth and strong power demand create a tighter domestic balance. Colder Outlook Boosts Natural Gas Sentiment Colder-than-expected winter forecasts sparked a mid-October rebound in Henry Hub futures as traders unwound shorts after weather models shifted toward stronger heating demand. NOAA’s 16/Oct seasonal outlook indicated that La Niña conditions are likely to persist through winter, raising the probability of below-average temperatures across northern U.S. states. These forecasts, while fluid, triggered a repricing of weather risk, with potential production disruptions and pipeline freeze-offs adding to market sensitivity. The market is now focused on December’s cold risk: near-term demand may soften into Thanksgiving, but structural support and the prospect of a colder December continue to buoy sentiment. Meanwhile, record LNG exports provide a firm floor for Henry Hub prices this winter. Henry Hub Gained Despite Rising Production and High Storage Levels Henry Hub prices have continued to surge even as U.S. natural gas production in the Lower 48 states hit a record 109 bcf/d so far in November, up from 107 bcf/d in October. The rise in output typically acts as a bearish factor for prices. Source: EIA Over the past six weeks, storage injections have exceeded expectations in five of those weeks. Source: Investing.com Additionally, inventories are about 4.2% above the five-year seasonal average (2020–2024). Source: EIA While record production and elevated storage levels are weighing on sentiment, strong LNG exports and colder weather forecasts are providing enough support to sustain the recent rally in Henry Hub prices. Options Skew Signals Caution Now, Optimism Ahead The front-month November contract shows heavier put positioning, indicating short-term caution. Source: CME QuikStrike However, higher call open interest in subsequent contracts suggests that market participants expect Henry Hub prices to strengthen in the months ahead. Source: CME QuikStrike Despite the recent price surge, put OI remains concentrated around the USD 3 strike, indicating downside hedging. In contrast, call open interest is higher and more broadly distributed above USD 4.6, suggesting expectations for further upside potential. Historical Trade Set-up Winter-driven heating demand, combined with record U.S. LNG exports, provides a firm seasonal tailwind for Henry Hub prices. Although natural gas prices tend to firm toward year-end, volatility remains high. For example, the January contract (NGF2025) between mid-November 2024 and the end of December, Henry Hub prices rallied but experienced sharp swings. In 2023, an outright long in the January contract (NGF2024) ultimately finished at a loss by expiration. Given the CME Henry Hub futures contract size of 10,000 MMBtu, the gross mark-to-market loss for going long on the NGF2024 contract would have been USD 6,080 per contract between 17/Nov/2023 and 27/Dec/2023: PnL = (3.227 – 2.619) × 10,000 = USD 6,080 To mitigate volatility and hedge, traders often use calendar spreads. Entering one in mid-November 2023 would have generated a gain even though an outright NGF long had declined. The gross mark-to-market profit on the NGF2024/NGG2024 calendar spread would have been USD 1,300 per contract. The spread generated a profit because the later-month NGG2024 contract declined more than the front-month NGF2024 contract. In calendar spreads, gains occur whenever the later month lags the front month—either by falling more or rising less. For Henry Hub, this typically happens when near-term demand or supply conditions keep the front month relatively firmer, allowing the trade to capture month-to-month price differences with lower overall market exposure. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs at tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Liquidity Basics: Equal Highs/Lows, Inefficiencies & POIsPrice doesn’t move randomly, it is always attracted towards liquidity. Every wick, breakout, and fake-out tells a story of orders being filled. If you can read where those orders are hiding, you stop trading noise and start trading intention. Equal Highs & Lows — The Obvious Targets Retail traders love to mark equal highs and lows as “strong support/resistance.” Smart money sees them as fuel. Above equal highs = cluster of buy stops. Below equal lows = cluster of sell stops. When price reaches them, it’s a collection of accumulated liquidity as a main driver behind that move. Inefficiencies — Fair Value Gaps Also known as Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) or imbalances, these occur when price moves too quickly, leaving unfilled orders behind. Price often revisits these zones later to rebalance. Spot them between large candles with no overlap, they often mark where institutions filled partial orders. Points of Interest (POIs) POIs are areas where liquidity and inefficiency converge , the zones of intent. Look for: Liquidity sweep of equal highs/lows Return to imbalance or order block Shift in market structure That’s where high-probability setups occur. Note: Stop chasing every candle. Start mapping why price moves. Equal highs and inefficiencies are magnets, with proper plan and confluence this can represent your strong side of trading.
Education
by HyroTrader
14
USD/JPY — Monthly Outlook (Technical + Macro + Policy)USD/JPY — Monthly Outlook (Technical + Macro + Policy) * The USD/JPY pair remains under broad long-term downward pressure, driven by persistent rate differentials and Japan’s push for fiscal expansion. * The current zone around 155 has historical significance as these levels were last seen in the early 1990s (almost 35 years ago), highlighting the extraordinary extent of yen depreciation. * At the same time, Japan is now considering a ¥17 trillion fiscal stimulus package, which is fundamentally yen-negative. * Expansionary fiscal policy, without matching monetary tightening, typically accelerates currency depreciation. - This increases the probability that USD/JPY retests the psychological 160 handle. Source of News: lnkd.in Technical Structure (Monthly Inverted Chart) - The pair remains in a long-term uptrend on the USD/JPY axis (yen weakening). - Price continues to hold above the 145 support and is hovering above 150, around 154.80. Key Levels: - 155 → Historically watched intervention zone for BoJ; markets remember 2023–2024. - 160 → The line where BoJ/MOF have repeatedly signaled discomfort and, earlier, intervened. - 145–148 → Major multi-year support. A sustained break below this range would be structurally yen-positive, but that is unlikely without a major policy shift. What to Expect Going Forward - USD/JPY continues drifting higher toward 160 But - It might fail to sustain any breakout above 160–162 due to intervention risk by BoJ/ MOF, creating the classic "intervention ceiling" scenario.
Short
by Nadia_farhat
Gold Price Balanced Amid Heightened UncertaintyGold Price Balanced Amid Heightened Uncertainty As the XAU/USD chart shows, last week gold prices fell sharply, interrupting the previous upward trend. This decline was driven by two main factors: → End of the US government shutdown. This is believed to have reduced short-term economic risks and lessened demand for gold as a “safe-haven” asset. → Hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, which lowered market expectations for rate cuts. This pushed up US Treasury yields, traditionally putting downward pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. This week, the market is awaiting a wave of delayed US economic reports that were postponed during the shutdown, including: → Labour market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) → Inflation data (CPI) These releases are expected to give traders greater clarity on the future trajectory of Fed interest rates. Technical Analysis of XAU/USD From a technical perspective, the price is currently trading at the intersection of two key lines: → Resistance line from the upper boundary of the descending channel originating at the all-time high. Buyers attempted to break through this level last week but were unsuccessful. → Support line from the lower boundary of the ascending channel, in place since early autumn. Given the above, it is reasonable to suggest that: → the market is in a balanced position, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach; → a breakout from the symmetrical triangle could indicate the direction of the next significant move in gold prices. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
1
BTC on the brink of explosion: Wave 5 is charged –BTC on the brink of explosion: Wave 5 is charged – those who are not up are late. 🌀 Wave Structure On the weekly chart, BTC is forming a major impulse, where: Wave 3 is already complete (characteristic super-sharp rise + volume extremes). The market is now in the area of ​​wave 4—an extended correction moving sideways. Wave 5—the next wave in the cycle—is preparing to launch but requires confirmation through a resistance breakout. The correction looks like this: A–B–C (flat correction or sideways zigzag) Wave A—a sharp decline. Wave B—a rebound without breaking the high. Wave C—a fading decline/flat. This is a classic pattern before the start of the final impulse. 📍 Key Resistance Levels $71,500—the main trigger level for wave 5. A breakout opens the way for a trend acceleration. $75,000—the boundary of a new impulse zone. Support $64,000 is the support zone for wave 4. Holding it is critical. $60,500 is the deep support for wave C. Only a breakout of this support will cancel the bullish scenario. 📈 Weekly Scenarios 🟩 Bullish Scenario (Main) BTC holds the $64,000–$66,000 range, forming the bottom of wave 4 → breaks $71,500 → wave 5 activates. Wave 5 Fibonacci targets: $78,000 $82,000 Maximum extension: $89,000 🟥 Bearish Scenario (Alternative) If the price breaks below $64,000, the structure turns into an extended zigzag. Then wave C could drop to: $60,500 Extreme: $57,800 From there, there's a high probability of an upward reversal—the start of wave 5 is simply shifted in time. 🎯 Summary BTC has reached its conclusion: 🔥 Above $71,500—the start of a powerful wave 5 and a new historical impulse. ⚠️ Below $64,000—wave 4 deepens before the final push. This week promises to be a decision point: either a sharp upward move or a final liquidity boost at the bottom.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Trade_Hive_Signals
XAUUSD: Wave 5 at the start or the last throwback of the bulls?XAUUSD: Wave 5 at the start or the last throwback of the bulls? 🌀 Wave Context According to WebMile, on the weekly chart, gold is in the process of forming wave 5 (of a higher degree), while the current corrective rally is wave 4, developing within a larger structure. This means that the gold market is currently balancing between continuing its long-term momentum and a possible medium-term pullback. 🛠 Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance: approximately $4,000–$4,030, an area where bulls could face a significant obstacle. Secondary Resistance: $3,750, the target of a potential upside within the impulse according to short-term analysts. Support: approximately $3,841–$3,864, the area where wave (4) of the correction is developing. Deeper Support: $3,320–$3,230, a larger support level targeted by a correction in wave C under one of the scenarios. 📈 Weekly Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Gold holds the $3,841–$3,864 zone → completes wave 4 correction → breaks above $4,000+ → potential wave 5 development. Corrective Scenario: Price fails to hold the $4,000 resistance and pulls back → wave C develops → decline to $3,320–$3,230 could be part of a deeper correction. Consolidation: XAU/USD could trade in the $3,850–$4,000 range, accumulating energy before the next move until a clear breakout signal is seen. ✅ Conclusion Gold is at a key point for the coming week: either the bulls complete the correction and initiate a new momentum, or the correction deepens. We need to monitor the reaction to the $3,841–3,864 (support) and $4,000 (resistance) levels. The wave structure currently allows for both scenarios—it's important to wait for confirmation!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by Trade_Hive_Signals
TSLA: Wave 4 or Explosive Momentum – Get Ready for a Big MoveTSLA: Wave 4 or Explosive Momentum – Get Ready for a Big Move 📈 Weekly Scenarios Bullish scenario: The price holds the $436–$449 zone, ending the correction with wave 4. Breaks above $470–$471, triggering wave 5 → target of $488–$505+. Consolidation: The price is in the $436–$471 range, without a clear breakout, preparing for the next impulse. Bearish scenario: Breakthrough of support at $425–$397 → possible reversal or deep correction instead of growth. ✅ Conclusion Tesla is at an important wave crossroads – it either completes the correction and prepares for a strong rally, or reverses downward. Key points to watch: $436–$449 (correction support) and $470–$471 (resistance breakout). Confirmation of the wave structure and price reaction at these levels will be critical for making trading decisions.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Trade_Hive_Signals
4
LYFT US🌎Q3 Key Results: Growth is strong, momentum is growing Lyft's third-quarter report confirms that its comeback strategy is working. Record Performance: The company achieved historic highs in active riders (28.7 million, 1.2 million above expectations) and bookings ($4.78 billion, +16% YoY). Stable Growth: Rides increased 15% YoY—the tenth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Healthy Finances: Operating cash flow generation remains strong ($1.08 billion over the past 12 months). The growth of Lyft's active rider base is a key indicator. It signals demand for Lyft's services and lays the foundation for future monetization, even if current promotions are temporarily holding back revenue growth. Future Growth Forecast and Drivers Management provides encouraging guidance, predicting accelerated growth through 2025 and beyond. Bookings and Margins: Bookings are expected to grow 17-20% year-over-year, with Adjusted EBITDA margins of 2.7-3.0%. Key Growth Drivers: California Insurance Reform (SB 371): When enacted in 2026, it will significantly reduce insurance costs (currently down to $6 per trip), making the service more affordable and increasing profitability. Tank Market Assessor (TAM): CEO David Risher estimates the total U.S. market potential at 161 billion trips per year, while Lyft and Uber currently account for only about 2.5 billion. This leaves enormous room for growth. Expansion and Partnerships: Acquisitions (FREENOW, TBR) doubled Lyft's addressable market, opening access to the premium segment and the European taxi market. Strategic Focus: Hybrid Network and Partnerships Rather than fearing autonomous vehicles (AVs), Lyft sees them as an opportunity and is building a hybrid model. Hybrid Network: The company believes that demand cannot be met by AVs alone in the foreseeable future. The combination of driver-partners and autonomous vehicles will create synergies. Key Partnerships: Waymo: Deep technical integration to maximize fleet utilization. This strategic partnership has plans to scale beyond Nashville. Flexdrive: A subsidiary that ensures 90% fleet availability (charging, cleaning, repairs), which is critical for AV deployment. Niche Markets: Success in college campuses and medical transportation accounted for 70% of Q3 growth. Valuation: Significantly undervalued given growth. The wide range of analyst estimates reflects uncertainty about the impact of AV, but even conservative estimates point to upside potential. Multiples: With revenue growth projected at 15%+, Lyft trades at impressively low forward multiples: 2027 P/E: ~12 (extremely low for a company with double-digit growth). P/FCF: ~7-8 (based on a conservative free cash flow estimate of $1.2-1.4 billion). Risk Adjustments: Including large stock option compensation (SBC) and insurance reserves will certainly lower these numbers. However, even after accounting for these, the current price appears conservative. Risks: Managed amid transformation The main risk is self-driving cars: Theoretically, giants like Google and Tesla could start a price war that would be unfavorable for Lyft. However, the global scaling of AVs will face regulatory and cultural barriers, giving Lyft time to maneuver.
NASDAQ:LYFT
by A3MInvestments
Gold's upward momentum is weak, so shorting is the only option.Gold Technical Analysis: Gold suddenly entered a downtrend at the end of last week, with a target price around 4210. On Friday, it reached a high of around 4211 before retreating, breaking below 4100 to around 4032, resulting in a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart. The question now is whether this downward trend will continue. The daily chart shows a consistent decline in highs, suggesting that the resistance level at the three key points could easily trigger a second downward reversal. Therefore, we should expect a pullback at the beginning of this week. Therefore, at the beginning of this week, we definitely expect gold prices to continue falling. However, since the fast and slow lines are still above the zero axis, even if prices fall, it will only be a pullback. Looking at the candlestick chart, the trendline support is around $4,000, which is both our target for shorting this week and a place to try to place long orders. If it breaks down, it may test the lower Bollinger Band at $3,890. However, it should be noted that the halfway resistance level of Friday's full-blown bearish candlestick is at $4,130, which is also the highest point of the rebound in the two days following the sharp drop on October 21. If gold prices break through this level again, it will mean the end of this round of pullback. Gold rebounded slightly after the opening but continued to face pressure at higher levels and fell back again. In the short term, the 4110-4120 area has formed effective resistance. If the rebound is still pressured by the 4110-4120 area, then the gold rebound is extremely weak, and there may be some room for further adjustment. However, even if the gold rebound is slightly stronger, the resistance below 4150 still indicates a head and shoulders pattern on the 1-hour chart, favoring a short-term bias towards range-bound selling. Today's core strategy should be to sell on rallies. Although there was a technical rebound after Friday's sharp drop, the rebound strength was limited. As long as it cannot break through the key resistance of $4120, any rally is an opportunity to short. It is necessary to pay close attention to whether the rebound shows signs of exhaustion. If the rebound of the right shoulder is insufficient, the head and shoulders pattern will be officially established, and the gold price may face a deeper decline. Therefore, today's strategy is still to sell on rallies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Daniel_PrimeFX
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed might (not) cut in DecemberThe US Treasuries were moving in a swing manner during the previous week. The 10Y US benchmark reached the lowest weekly level at 4,05%, but ended the week at 4,18%. The US Government ended its longest “shutdown” in history, however, there is some indication that the macro data for the “shutdown” period will probably not be released. Investors are attempting to assess the health of the US economy amid a lack of fresh data and uncertainty about policy direction. The pause in key statistics has left markets navigating with less clarity about growth and inflation prospects. As per CME FedWatch Tool there is currently around 50% chance that the Fed will cut rates in December. Uncertainty is still a key word which will drive the market sentiment in the week ahead. As per current charts, there is some probability that the yields might test the 4,18% level one more time. On the opposite side, modest easing in yields, might revert them toward levels slightly below the 4,1% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Gold: Open path to lower grounds?The price of gold was following general market sentiment during the previous week, and was traded in swings. The start of the week was marked with an increased demand for gold, bringing the price to the level of $4.243. However, Friday trading session brought a modest correction, where gold was headed toward the $4.035, but closed the week at $4.079. The RSI closed the week at the level of 53, after previously reaching the level of 61. The indicator is showing that the market is struggling to take a clear path toward the oversold market side. The MA50 and MA200 lines are still moving without change - as two parallel lines with an uptrend. Current charts are showing that the gold has an important level around $4.100, while strong support holds at $3.930. Friday trading session showed that the support at $4.1K was breached, which leaves the path open toward testing the $3.930 support. In this sense, the first stop for the price of gold might be the $4K level, before it continues its move further to the support line. With respect to the opposite side, there is currently some probability that the level of $4.1K could be tested again, and much lower probability for the level of $4,2K.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
SPX: Makes equities affordable againThe previous week was quite an interesting one on equity markets. A lot of swing movements, but the general trend was toward the downside, or a general correction. The weekly peak of the S&P 500 was at the level of 6.870, but the next two days were traded with a huge market correction. Futures on Friday were traded with a significant discount, when the market opened at 6.648. The dip buyers immediately stepped on the market, and managed to push the index toward the higher grounds, where the index closed the week at 6.734. Many analysts are questioning whether this Friday's move was pointing to the reverse of investors sentiment, or was it just a short term correction to the upside? The week started with an interesting news that the SoftBank Group has sold its entire stake in Nvidia Corporation for around $5,8B, with aim to transfer these funds in AI investments, including OpenAI. Amazon shares jumped after it struck a $38 billion deal with OpenAI to provide AWS capacity, signalling strong demand for AI infrastructure. Apple reported strong earnings, with its services business growing significantly, helping it stay resilient even amid broader market worries. Based on the previous week's market movements, it could be noted that broad-based profit-taking hit big tech as investors expressed renewed valuation concerns on AI-focused companies, with Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD, and others seeing notable declines. Meanwhile, analysts are closely watching capital-expenditure plans from major companies as these will test whether the current AI-driven rally is sustainable.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
EURUSD: Trading in the channelThe U.S. Government ended its longest “shutdown” on Wednesday, after almost 60 days. Market participants were most interested in historical macro data which were not posted during this period, however, the white House Press Secretary commented that this data may never be released. During the week there has not been important macro data posted for the US economy. The ZEW Economic sentiment index in Germany for November reached the level of 38,5, which was a bit lower from anticipated 40. Wholesale Prices in Germany were increased by 0,3% in October, bringing the indicator to 1,1% on a yearly basis. Final Inflation rate in October in Germany was standing at 0,3% for the month and 2,3% for the year. Industrial production in the Euro Zone in September increased by 0,2% m/m and 1,2% y/y. Figures significantly missed estimates of 0,7% m/m and 2,1% y/y. Balance of trade in the Euro Zone in September reached euro 19,4B which was significantly above forecasted euro 8B. The second estimate for the GDP Growth rate in the Euro Zone for Q3 stands at 0,2% q/q and 1,4% y/y, which was in line with market estimates. The eurusd currency pair started the previous week around the level of 1,1550 and for the rest of the week took the uptrend, testing the level of 1,1650 for the last two days of the week. At Friday's trading session, the pair reverted a bit, closing the week at 1,1620. The RSI reached the level of 52, however, it is unclear whether the market took a clear course toward the overbought market side. The MA50 is slowly converging toward the MA200, but there is still a higher distance between two lines, in which sense, the potential cross might be a bit postponed. Charts are showing that the currency pair continues to move within a downtrend channel which started in September this year. At the level of 1,1650, the top of the channel has been reached, in which sense, there is a high probability for a short term reversal. The bottom side of the channel stands around 1,1450. On the other hand, if the currency pair makes a move above the 1,1650 level, it would imply the break of the channel formation, in which sense, 1,1720 might be the next target of the currency pair. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Inflation rate in the Euro Zone in October, Producers Price Index in Germany in October, HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for November for Germany and the Euro Zone, S&P Global Composite PMI Flash in November, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for November. USD: It should be taken into account that it is unclear whether macro data for the US will be posted in the week ahead. Still, scheduled macro data for the week ahead are following: Industrial Production for September, Building Permits in October, Housing Starts in October, Existing Home Sales in October, Jobless claims.
by XBTFX
Bitcoin: Oversold !It was a tough week on the crypto market, where the majority of coins significantly slipped in value. BTC was the leader of this drop. It occurred due to the combination of several reasons, which in combination, dragged the BTC toward the lowest, $94,7K level. Persistently high inflation in the US raised doubts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, which reduced the demand for risk assets, like BTC. On the other hand, the broader market entered into a risk-off mode, where tech stocks and crypto-companies experienced significant declines. In addition, large liquidations of leveraged long positions in the crypto market, and whale-sales amplified the downward move in BTC price. The price of BTC was holding solid grounds at $100K support, however, Thursday's risk-off sentiment pushed the price of BTC lower, till the level of $94,7K. During Saturday's trading session, BTC modestly moved to the level of $96K. The RSI indicator reached the level of 30, indicating a clear oversold market side. The MA50 is very close to the MA200, indicating a “dead cross” formation in technical analysis in a near term period. Although BTCs move toward the $94K for some market participants might be perceived as painful, still, it was a necessary move for BTC. Now it marks a fresh, new start for BTC for a move toward higher grounds, and even new ATH sometime in 2026. It should be also considered that some lower grounds are possible before this final switch to the upside. Namely, some analysts are mentioning some probability that BTC might go even lower, toward the $76K, which was market low in April 2025. However, at this moment charts are pointing to some probability of $90K for the week ahead. Still, in case that dip buyers enter the scene, the next resistance at $100K, might be an easy target for BTC for the week ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: November 17 – 23Last week in the news The longest Government shutdown in the US is over, however, investors were more concerned regarding valuations of tech companies and probability that the Fed might (not) cut rates in December. A strong correction occurred in equity markets followed with a strong sell-off on the crypto market. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6.734 after a modest rebound on Friday. BTC dipped below the $100K mark, slipping in one moment toward the $94,7K. The price of gold was also within a swing trade mode, still closing the week below the $4,1K support. The US Treasury yields also had a volatile week, with 10Y closing at 4,14%. The longest ever U.S. government shutdown ended Wednesday evening after lasting more than six weeks. While its conclusion was expected to restore the flow of key economic data that investors had been missing, it has instead introduced fresh uncertainty. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt indicated that some of the economic reports scheduled for release during the shutdown may never be published. In an attempt to “Make groceries affordable again”, the US President is rolling back tariffs on more than 200 food items, including beef, coffee, bananas, and orange juice, to try to lower grocery costs for Americans. Analysts are noting that this might be the attempt to dig into modestly rising inflation in the US, although the official figures are still missing, due to the Government “shutdown”. SoftBank Group sold its entire holding of about 32.1 million shares in Nvidia Corporation, raising roughly US$5.8 billion as part of its shift to fund large-scale AI investments, including OpenAI. The move is being used to finance its “all-in” bet on OpenAI and a US data-centre build-out (the “Stargate” project). The news triggered a drop in value of SoftBank shares by around 10% in Tokyo exchange, due to investor concern about whether the AI valuation boom may have gotten ahead of fundamentals. News is reporting that Berkshire Hathaway revealed a surprising new $4.3B stake in Alphabet, the parent company of Google, marking a notable shift given Buffett’s historical caution toward tech stocks. This investment now ranks Alphabet as the tenth-largest holding in Berkshire’s portfolio. At the same time, the company further reduced its stake in Apple, cutting its shares from 280 million to 238.2 million. Analysts are noting that the moves signal a strategic rebalancing within Berkshire’s equity holdings. The Czech National Bank has bought $1 million worth of digital assets, including BTC, USD-stablecoin and a tokenised deposit, as part of a pilot test portfolio. This portfolio is kept separately from its official international reserves and is not intended to be actively expanded. The goal is to gain hands-on experience in managing blockchain assets, testing key custody, multi-level approval process, crisis management, and anti-money laundering compliance. The CNB plans to review and assess the project over the next two to three years, to evaluate whether digital assets could play a future role in the financial system. CRYPTO MARKET It was a challenging week for the cryptocurrency market, with the majority of coins experiencing significant declines. Overall, the convergence of macroeconomic concerns and market-specific dynamics contributed to a particularly volatile week for cryptocurrencies, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to both monetary policy and investor sentiment. BTC led the downturn, falling to a low of $94,700. This drop was driven by a combination of factors that collectively weighed on the market. On one hand, persistent inflation in the US fuelled concerns that the Fed may hold off on cutting interest rates in December, reducing appetite for risk assets, including crypto. At the same time, broader financial markets entered a risk-off mode, with tech stocks and crypto-related companies also seeing notable declines. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 6% during the previous week, erasing $195B in value. Daily trading volumes remained flat for the week, with $329B traded on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at -1%, with a total funds outflow of $37B. BTC was the main coin which drag the total crypto market capitalization to the downside. Total weekly outflow was $195B, while only BTC participated with $132B, decreasing its value by 6,5% w/w. ETH was also down by 6,1%, with an outflow of $25B. Solana was traded lower by almost 11%, with funds outflow of $9,5B. This week Filecoin had a stronger pullback of 26%,, while Cardano and Avalanche dropped by almost 10%. DOGE dropped by 6,5% and LINK was last traded down by 7,7%. On the opposite side were only a few coins with weekly positive results. This week Monero managed to gain 16%, while ZCash continued to gain in value, with a weekly increase of 17.6%. Uniswap was also traded higher by 23,7%. Increased activity related to circulating coins continued for another week in a row. Filecoin added 1,5% more coins to the market, IOTA increased its circulating coins by 0,4%, while ZCash added 0,2% new coins. Majority of other altcoins had an increase of 0,1% of coins on the market like XRP, DOGE, Stellar, DASH, Solana. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market experienced a steep decline over the week, mirroring the sharp sell-off seen in the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures fell close to double-digits across all maturities, as macroeconomic uncertainty and broader risk aversion drove investors to reduce exposure. The move represented one of the largest weekly pullbacks of the quarter, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to macro signals and shifting sentiment. BTC futures declined between -9.12% and -9.29% w/w, with the November 2025 futures closing at $94,365 and the March 2027 maturity ending at $102,730. The curve retained its upward slope, but absolute price levels are now approaching the lower bound of the medium-term range. ETH futures posted slightly deeper losses than BTC, dropping between -9.64% and -9.79% w/w. The November 2025 futures closed at $3,140, while March 2027 settled at $3,474. Despite the week’s substantial correction, the curve maintained its structure, signalling that longer-dated expectations remain intact even as near-term conviction weakens. The decline in ETH futures was exacerbated by weaker liquidity conditions and heightened volatility across altcoins, which intensified selling pressure. Despite the sharp drawdown, the futures curve structure remains intact, suggesting that traders still expect a cyclical recovery once macro conditions stabilize. However, sentiment is now more fragile, and volatility may remain elevated until clearer signals emerge from monetary policymakers and broader financial markets.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
XAUUSD 2 scenariosThe U.S. dollar remains strong 💵, supported by firm economic data, resilient labor markets, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer. This strength is adding pressure to many major currency pairs and increasing volatility as price consolidates inside a triangle formation. Bearish scenario 📉: If the triangle breaks to the downside, price could move toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, where buyers have previously stepped in. A bearish breakout would likely align with stronger USD momentum, higher Treasury yields, or risk-off sentiment. Bullish scenario 📈: If price manages to break the triangle to the upside, we would then look for the upper region of the ascending channel, supported by potential USD weakness, softer economic data, or dovish signals from the Fed. With patterns like this, discipline is key — never enter prematurely. Always wait for a confirmed breakout and retest, as entering too early often means becoming the liquidity for larger players.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Dan-Goldfx
USOIL : daily review 17/11/2025Oil prices also slipped after Russia’s Novorossiysk port quickly resumed operations following a Ukrainian strike, removing a short-lived supply scare. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with notable examples including Iran’s seizure of a tanker and the ongoing US sanctions on Russia; however, rising global production remains the dominant force. Outages and disruptions across refining hubs have pushed margins higher; however, the broader trend suggests a well-supplied market heading into next year. In addition, many traders don’t expect OPEC+ to cut production next year, even with a potential surplus on the horizon. The group is sticking to its market-share strategy unless demand collapses and prices drop sharply. Saudi Arabia and its partners have revived output despite weak prices, betting that oversupply remains manageable and that China can continue to absorb excess barrels. On the technical side, the crude oil price found sufficient support around the $58 mark, which is a combination of the lower band of the Bollinger Bands and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, and has since corrected to the upside. Although the moving averages are confirming an overall bearish trend in the market, the recent bullish correction could persist into the upcoming sessions and potentially retest the latest high around $61, if it manages to break above the psychological resistance of the round number at $60. The Stochastic oscillator is in neutral levels, indicating potential for the price to move either way in the short term. However, the overly contracted Bollinger Bands may limit price action in the short term, likely keeping the price within sideways action between $58 and $62 for now. Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
TVC:USOIL
by antreas_themistokleous_exness