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XAU/USD – The Tug of War Before CPI: Sideway or Breakout?1. MARKET CONTEXT The U.S. government reopens after a 40-day shutdown (a historical record). Investors are on the sidelines observing ahead of tomorrow's CPI announcement → the market is likely to sideway awaiting news. 2. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1–M30) Main fluctuation range: 4097–4148 Break 4097 → adjust deeply to 407x – 403x Break 4148 → activate short-term increase, target 418x – 4205 Decision zones: 4097 & 4148 3. TRADING PLAN 🎯 Main strategy: Trade within the range (Sideway) → “Buy low – Sell high” according to support/resistance zones RR ratio: 1:1 – 1:2 | SL: 10 points | TP: 10–20 points BUY zone: 4097–4100 (strong support) → TP 4110–4120 Buy scalp: 4120–4124 → TP 4140–4145 Buy swing: 407x / 403x (if candle reaction occurs) SELL zone: 4145–4147 → TP 4125–4100 If break 415x & retest, switch to Buy breakout → Entry 4140–4145 | TP 416x–418x–4205 4. SUMMARY Main trend: Sideway awaiting CPI news Strategy: “Break any range, trade that range” Focus zones: Upper range: 414x (Sell) Lower range: 4095–4100 (Buy)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Chum_trades
1
GOLD → The bullish trend continues its movement FX:XAUUSD is testing the $4,150 level, hitting a three-month high amid expectations of a resumption of US government operations and weak economic data. The weekly gain exceeded 3%. Expectations of Fed easing - 64% probability of a rate cut in December, Consumer Sentiment Index (50.3) - lowest in 3.5 years. Layoffs rose 183.1% in October. The end of the shutdown will allow the release of missed data (NFP, CPI), which may confirm the need for a rate cut. All of this provides support for the metal. Today, it is worth paying attention to ADP employment data (4-week average) — an assessment of the labor market. Fundamentally, gold remains bullish thanks to a combination of monetary expectations and macro risks. Resistance levels: 4150, 4160 Support levels: 4125, 4085 The trend is bullish and quite aggressive, with the market not allowing for deep pullbacks. Ahead lies resistance at 4150-4160, a fairly dense pool of liquidity that is likely to halt the current movement and trigger a small correction before continuing to rise to 4200-4250. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
29
USDCHF → Manipulation? False breakout of resistance FX:USDCHF attempted to take advantage of the trend reversal opportunity after breaking out of a descending wedge, but the weak dollar hindered the rally... The currency pair is facing resistance at 0.8076. There is no continuation of the momentum towards a breakout, and bearish pressure, which is intensifying as the dollar index declines, is negatively affecting the currency pair. The price has returned to the trading range, with an emphasis on 0.8057 - 0.8076. If the bears keep the price below this zone, this move could trigger further sell-offs. Resistance levels: 0.8057, 0.8076 Support levels: 0.7957, 0.7925 The false breakout confirms that sellers currently have the upper hand and buyers lack the strength to push the price higher. Accordingly, consolidation below the key level could trigger a further decline towards the zone of interest at 0.7975. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
5
USDJPY → Consolidation above key support. Growth?FX:USDJPY breaks the structure of downward resistance on the daily timeframe. A retest is forming as part of the correction, and bulls have every chance of growth... The dollar is in an uptrend, which generally supports the currency pair. Against this backdrop, the Japanese yen continues to weaken. USDJPY is testing the previously broken resistance of the trading range as part of the correction. However, the price was not allowed to fall and quickly returned to the long zone. Accordingly, support at 153.0 - 153.2 plays a key role. Consolidation above this level could trigger further growth to 153.8 - 156.0. Support levels: 153.23, 152.83 Resistance levels: 154.83, 156.0 The bullish trend may support the current movement, and a breakout of the trend resistance on D1 is a fairly strong sign of interest in growth against the backdrop of a strong dollar. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
7
Market Outlook | GU, UJ & Gold Analysis | Nov 10–14In this video, we unpack how structure, sentiment, and events shaped last week’s price action across GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and XAU/USD (Gold) and what these clues reveal about where the market might head next. The video highlights how the market reacted to the quiet U.S. week caused by the government shutdown, and how traders positioned themselves ahead of the major data coming up, from UK employment and GDP figures to U.S. CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. You’ll Learn: ✅Why each market moved the way it did last week in simple, clear terms. ✅How I connect fundamental sentiment with real chart structures. ✅Key price zones and levels I am watching in the coming trading week. ✅How I anticipate reactions to upcoming economic data. Stay till the end for my outlook and mindset tip, and check the comment section throughout the week for real-time updates as I monitor price action. Timestamps: 00:01 – Welcome & overview 01:35 – GBP/USD breakdown 06:55 – USD/JPY analysis 11:05 – XAU/USD (Gold) insights 14:05 – Closing outlook & mindset ⚠️ This isn’t a signal service; it’s my personal trading map, shared to help you think and trade smarter.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
The Dual Catalyst: Why Silver's \$50 Breakout is SustainableSilver (XAG/USD) recently broke the crucial $50 per ounce level, signaling a fundamental shift in its market dynamics. While the price edges lower in the short term, primarily due to a strengthened US Dollar (USD), its long-term trajectory is decisively bullish. This surge is not merely speculative. It is driven by an unprecedented convergence of geopolitical risks, critical industrial demand, and shifting macroeconomic policy. Analyzing these catalysts across multiple domains confirms silver's evolving role from a precious metal to a critical industrial asset. Macroeconomics and Geopolitics Silver's price strength reflects global systemic risk and monetary policy uncertainty. Current market expectations strongly favor a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut by December, with a nearly 68% probability priced in by the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver, making it relatively more attractive than bonds or cash. This dovish outlook provides a powerful structural floor for the price. From a geopolitical perspective, ongoing global tensions and elevated political risks, like recent US government funding debates, accelerate safe-haven demand. Investors seek hard assets to hedge systemic risks. While gold often leads as the primary safe haven, silver's lower cost and dual-use nature attract broader retail and institutional flows, pushing it higher. A strong, sustained rally will require the price to hold above $50 and overcome the next major resistance near the historical high of $54.50. Technology, Science, and Patents Industrial demand now constitutes over 50% of silver’s total annual consumption, fundamentally redefining its market. Its unmatched electrical and thermal conductivity makes it indispensable in high-growth sectors. * Renewable Energy: Silver is critical for photovoltaics (PV), specifically in solar cells, which form the conductive paste that harvests electrons. The global push for green energy and solar capacity expansion creates structural, persistent demand that consistently tightens the market. * High-Tech and EVs: Electric Vehicles ( EVs) require significantly more silver (25–50 grams per unit) than traditional vehicles for inverters, battery management systems, and high-voltage contacts. The expansion of 5G technology, advanced computing, and the Internet of Things (IoT) further relies on silver-based components for seamless connectivity and efficiency. Geostrategy and Supply Chain Risk Silver is now recognized as a critical mineral by several major economies. This reclassification acknowledges its essential role in national security, advanced manufacturing, and the energy transition. This status highlights a geopolitical vulnerability: silver's supply chain is increasingly seen as a strategic concern. The market currently runs a persistent supply deficit, depleting above-ground stockpiles to critically low levels. Mining silver often occurs as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc, meaning its supply cannot easily scale up based on price alone. Trade conflicts or export controls imposed by major producing nations could severely disrupt supply, immediately spiking the price due to its non-substitutable role in key high-tech applications. Cyber and Economics: The Future Nexus Silver’s unique properties extend into emerging fields like cybersecurity* and advanced computing. Research integrates silver nanoparticles and quantum materials into sophisticated systems. These materials enhance data processing efficiency and bolster the security of financial supply chains. Furthermore, flexible electronics using silver nanowires* will drive the next generation of wearable and flexible displays, creating entirely new demand vectors. The long-term economic case for a $100 silver price remains dependent on this confluence of factors. Sustained high industrial consumption, a breakdown in global supply chains, and a continued environment of monetary debasement must align. Silver has truly become a dual-catalyst metal, positioned to thrive as both a financial safe haven and a fundamental building block of the twenty-first-century green and digital economy.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by the5erstrading
What will be the next major trend of the US dollar on the FX?Although the US dollar remains by far the weakest currency in the Forex market this year (2025), it has rebounded since early September and could confirm a medium-term bullish reversal if it breaks through major resistance. However, the signal has not yet been triggered, and the fundamentals are not yet in place. Let’s examine what the next structural trend of the US dollar could be from both a technical and a fundamental standpoint. 1) The fundamentals required to envisage a bullish reversal in the US dollar’s long-term trend (DXY) Higher US interest rates If the Federal Reserve were to resume its tightening cycle, or simply maintain high policy rates while other central banks ease, yield differentials would favor the dollar. International capital would then flow toward USD-denominated assets. Resilient US economic growth Strong GDP and labor market data would boost investor confidence in US assets. A dynamic economy naturally attracts foreign capital inflows and mechanically supports the currency. Reacceleration of inflation A resurgence of inflation could prompt the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance for longer. Higher nominal interest rates would then strengthen the dollar’s global appeal. Heightened geopolitical tensions Periods of uncertainty or international conflict generally boost demand for the US dollar, viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of stress. Improved fiscal discipline and capital repatriation flows Any credible initiative to reduce the US fiscal deficit would reinforce investor confidence. At the same time, the repatriation of profits by US multinationals would create additional demand for the greenback. 2) Factors likely to maintain the bearish trend The end of the US “shutdown” While it restores short-term confidence, the resolution of a budgetary standoff tends to revive risk appetite. Investors then turn away from safe-haven assets such as the dollar, weighing on its value. The end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) The Fed’s planned end of QT as of December 1, 2025 will inject liquidity into markets, which tends to weaken the dollar by increasing money supply and reducing real yields. In summary: A sustained rebound of the dollar would require a combination of high interest rates, solid growth, and global uncertainty. Conversely, any monetary easing or renewed global confidence could keep the US currency on a downward trajectory. From a technical standpoint, the bullish reversal signal will not be confirmed as long as the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains below the key resistance area of 101–102 points. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
GOLD outlook-GOLD , price retested $4145 zone 3 times till now failing to break higher, this shows me that buyers are at this stage exhausted and sellers are in control. -we can play some short term sells between now and possibly NYSE to lower demand zones before expecting further upside momentum for continuation buys considering shutdown weighing on uncertainty and still room for monthly candle to fill. Fundamentals in play: - Rate cut bets faded - Oct FOMC speech, Powell less dovish & slightly hawkish tone, emphasing he wants to see inflation reduce and see data before making any further decisions. This would mean that USD yields remain high therefor inflow into USD & gold bears. - Trade War optimism- Recent optimistic talks with Xi and Trump, therefor less uncertainty in the markets now and investors risk on mode. Less safe haven demand Govt Shutdown - we would have expected stronger Gold bearish momentum, however the only things that’s keeping us in seeing that is the US shutdown which is now longest in history, this therefor keeps investors on edge and cautious as they would like to see economic data to determine health and if safe to invest. Therefor current sentiment is mixed .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jawad_Khalili1
XAUUSD – PRIORITIZE BUYING ON PRICE CORRECTION💛 XAUUSD – PRIORITIZE BUYING ON PRICE CORRECTION 🎯 🌤Overview Good morning traders 💬 Gold is experiencing a slight correction after hitting resistance at the VAH area on the Volume Profile. This is a natural reaction in the current uptrend. The price observation area for today's correction is around the H4 trendline at 4078, deeper is the VAH area at 4020, where there is good liquidity for buyers. Although there is a possibility of short-term correction, the main trend remains upward. Therefore, I prioritize waiting to Buy at the support area, rather than entering against the trend. 💹 Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective) 📈 The price is maintaining a medium-term uptrend structure, with no reversal signals yet. 🟣 The 4075–4078 area coincides with the trendline + liquidity zone – a potential buying area for short orders. 🔹 VAH around 4020 is a strong support, suitable for long-term Buy if the price corrects deeply. 💫 The 4200–4203 area remains a major resistance (Sell Zone) – expect a downward reaction when the price approaches. 🎯 Reference Trading Plan 💖 Buy scalping (short-term) Entry: 4075–4078 ｜ SL: 4070 TP: 4095 – 4105 💖 Buy zone (main priority) Entry: 4018–4021 ｜ SL: 4011 TP: 4035 – 4042 – 4075 – 4095 💢 Sell zone (short reaction) Entry: 4200–4203 ｜ SL: 4210 TP: 4186 – 4165 – 4140 💢 Sell scalping (short-term) Entry: 4122–4124 ｜ SL: 4130 TP: 4105 – 4086 – 4060 – 4040 ⚠️ Important Note The 4048 area is strong resistance – closely observe price reactions here. Prioritize Buy according to the main trend, Sell should only be considered as a short-term reaction. 🌷Be patient and wait for the price to correct to the support area to buy according to Smart Money flow. If you find this useful, please 💛 like – 💬 comment – 🔔 follow LanaM2 for daily gold insights ✨
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
DXY (USD)Expecting upside continuation. We can see on HTF we have Bullish MS, with HH & HL formation. Fundamentals: - Rate cuts bets faded. - Oct FOMC, Powell slightly less dovish to Hawkish tone - want to be cautious with future rate cuts & want to be data dependant. - Dec rate cut probabilities dropped from 95% chance to 63% chance. This means that US yields remain high, less investor outflow because of interest rate differentials, therefor we can see USD upside. The only think thats probably impacting it is the US lockdown, and is now the longest ever, therefor investors still cautious as they would like to see data before we can see big drivers.
TVC:DXYLong
by Jawad_Khalili1
Williams VIX Fix · Predict Market BottomsThe Williams VIX Fix is a trading indicator that helps identify market bottoms by tracking volatility. When fear in the market spikes, the indicator flashes green, signaling a potential reversal. Created by Chris Moody, this tool works across crypto, stocks, and forex. It’s most effective on higher timeframes like the 4-hour or daily chart. You can find it on TradingView by searching “cm Williams VIX Fix Finds Market Bottoms.” Here’s how traders use it: When the bars at the bottom of the chart rise sharply and turn green, it often means the market has overreacted on the downside. This setup has historically worked well for assets like Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , Tesla, and the S&P 500. However, the indicator can sometimes give false or multiple signals. That’s why traders combine it with tools like the Stochastic Oscillator or Order Blocks for better accuracy. For example: When the VIX Fix flashes green and the Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone crossing upward, it often marks a true bottom. Or, when price touches an order block and the VIX Fix flashes green with a Stochastic confirmation, it’s a high-probability entry. The indicator even has a modified version by Aaron Stone that highlights both market tops and bottoms, though traders say bottom signals remain more reliable. In short, the Williams VIX Fix is a smart way to spot fear-driven market bottoms, but it’s best used with other confirmations. TheCryptoFire
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheCryptoFire
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 12, 2025 USDJPYThe yen remains under pressure: the policy stance between the U.S. and Japan continues to diverge, and the Bank of Japan is still acting gradually and avoiding sharp steps so as not to choke off the economic recovery. In this environment, any rebound in global risk appetite quickly leads to yen weakness and a rise in USDJPY. The price environment for energy also matters: elevated energy import bills traditionally worsen the trade balance and support demand for the dollar against the yen. In the U.S., Treasury yields have stabilized without signs of a major decline, which supports the dollar’s premium over the yen. The market is closely watching U.S. inflation and consumer activity data: the lack of a sharp slowdown in these series creates conditions for dollar-denominated assets to remain attractive to global investors, especially compared with Japanese instruments. Risks of verbal signals from Japanese authorities and episodic “pauses” in the pair’s ascent remain, but without a change in the Bank of Japan’s approach to rates and yield control, a sustained downward reversal in USDJPY is not in sight. With a moderate news backdrop, the underlying balance of factors still favors the dollar. Trading recommendation: BUY 154.350, SL 153.500, TP 155.500
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold price analysis todayXAUUSD Update — Hold the structure, wait for a quality BUY setup Currently, the gold chart has no major structural changes — the market is in a correction phase at an important resistance zone. This is a “consolidation” phase before the next trend becomes more obvious, so the priority is to be patient and wait for a high probability setup. If you are holding a SELL position from the resistance zone, the current strategy is to hold the order and manage profits — wait for a reaction at the support zones to decide to close/open more. For those looking for BUY opportunities, wait for signs of price rejection (rejection / wick / bullish price action) at the indicated support zone before entering the order. Important zone: 4075 — 4031 (support zone to find BUY signal) Strategy: Enter BUY when there is a clear price rejection signal + volume/price action reaction. Target: 4300 Risk management: stoploss placed below support zone if price action breaks and closes deep below.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TVS-Trader
Labor Force Participation Rolling Over👷‍♂️ U.S. Labor Force Participation Rolling Over — Again The labor force participation rate is sliding once more, continuing a long-term decline that started back in 2000. People love to blame it on retiring Boomers — but that excuse doesn’t hold up anymore. Millennials are a larger demographic group, yet participation still can’t recover. Something deeper is at play: structural weakness, stagnant productivity, or simply a shift in incentives. Whatever the cause, fewer people working means lower potential growth and higher dependency on credit-driven demand. The trend is still down. The economy is weakening under the surface while markets are at all-time highs. Click boost, follow, comment nicely for more authentic, no BS, raw analysis. Let's get to 6,000 followers. ))
FRED:CIVPARTShort
by RealMacro
BTCUSD testing the channel's resistance, potential decline seenBitcoin prices hovered near recent lows as onchain data showed that the Total Supply Held by LTHs has declined by around 390k BTC since Jul's peak, signaling ongoing distribution. ETF outflows have persisted through Nov, with only minor inflows offering a limited offset, underscoring waning demand. Bitcoin prices may remain under pressure as risk appetite softens and investor conviction weakens. From a technical perspective, BTCUSD is testing the upper bound of the descending channel, which coincides with the 106,500 resistance. The Ichimoku cloud is also indicating bearish pressure. If BTCUSD breaks the psychological support level at 100,000, the price may extend its decline toward the 93,000 support level. Conversely, a bullish breakout of the channel may prompt a retest of the resistance at 115,000. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lixing_gan
1