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Fundamental Analysis

Gold Faces a New Challenge — 4300 or 4010?Currently, there are signs of a head and shoulders pattern on the 30-minute chart. We need to pay attention to the shoulder resistance and trend support. If the head and shoulders pattern forms, the downside may reach the 4150-4140 area. If next week's data and news do not support the bulls, we should be wary of a larger head and shoulders pattern. As previously mentioned, there is still a gap below 4010. If this occurs, it's possible that the market will use this opportunity to fill the gap.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by China_MsWang
Gold: Watch Support Near 4168 and Resistance at 4252With strong rate-cut expectations combined with heightened geopolitical tensions, gold’s safe-haven appeal has been significantly reinforced, pushing prices back above the 4200 level. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, gold still has considerable upside potential, with some voices in the market even calling for a move toward 5000. In the short term, the U.S. government is about to resume operations, and the delayed economic data will soon be released. The market widely expects these reports to confirm a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, the White House has cautioned that October’s employment and inflation data may not be published on time due to the disruption caused by the shutdown. This uncertainty has further intensified concerns about the economic outlook, providing continuous support for gold’s upward momentum. However, it’s worth noting that the policies and data released after the government’s reopening remain uncertain. The market has already priced in a considerable portion of bullish expectations. If the actual results align with these expectations, the short-term upside could be limited; if they diverge, a corrective pullback would be likely. Therefore, proper risk management is essential to navigate potential volatility. Technical Outlook: On the daily chart, moving averages show a strong bullish alignment. The current uptrend is supported by the MA5 (around 4127), while the key support lies near the MA30 (around 4074). The MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and the price is moving between the Bollinger Bands’ middle line (4075) and upper band (4298). This means that during the price consolidation around 4200, key supports to watch are 4150–4127 and the middle band near 4075. (Indicator levels may shift as volatility increases, so real-time monitoring is recommended.) On the 1-hour chart, the main supports are 4168/4152/4138. As long as these levels hold, gold still has room to test 4223–4250 in the short term. With supportive news catalysts, a move toward 4300 cannot be ruled out. Overall, next week’s market will likely see heightened volatility. Opportunity and risk coexist — those who manage position size and timing well could see their profits multiply, while those lacking discipline and risk awareness could face severe drawdowns or even liquidation.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
Diversified Futures Paper Trading Setup: 5 Instruments, BalancedDetails / Description: Today, I set up a paper trading portfolio on TradingView using 5 instruments from different sectors/industries to practice diversification, risk management, and leverage. Strategy Highlights: Selected 1 instrument from each industry to reduce sector-specific risk. CME:MBT1! – Industrial / Metals CME_MINI:ES1! – S&P 500 Index CME_MINI:MNQ1! – Nasdaq 100 Index COMEX_MINI:MGC1! – Gold Mini Contract NYMEX:MCL1! – Crude Oil Mini Contract Used market orders for immediate entries. Set Take Profit and Stop Loss for each position with a rough 1:3 risk-reward ratio. Let positions run for the medium term (days to weeks) without constant monitoring. Margin and available funds carefully managed to ensure all positions can stay open safely. Purpose / Learning Goal: Practice portfolio diversification across different industries. Learn position sizing, risk-reward, and leverage management. Observe how unrealized and realized P/L evolve over time. Understand how stop losses and take profits help automate risk management. Next Steps: Monitor daily or via alerts, but avoid constant screen watching. Adjust future trades based on performance and market conditions.
CME:MBT1!
by binduinusa
2
GBP/USD rallies impressively to create potential reversalAlthough GBP/USD initially dipped after the release of disappointing UK data this morning, it has since recovered on broader risk-off trade, which has hurt the USD against most major currencies, most notably the euro. The GBP/USD has stormed higher after the false break below 1.3140 double bottom low from earlier this year. This level is key: bullish above it, bearish below it. Resistance is seen at 1.3250 and then 1.3310; bias bullish above these levels. UK GDP expanded by just 0.1% in the third quarter, undershooting expectations of 0.2% and slowing from 0.3% in the previous quarter. On a monthly basis, the economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%, against forecasts for flat growth. The figures highlight a clear loss of momentum compared to earlier in the year, when the UK had been outperforming other G7 economies. However, recent sentiment surveys indicate that both consumers and businesses are holding back on spending amid worries about significant tax increases expected in this month’s Budget. The UK economy continues to struggle for momentum, and these challenges may keep growth subdued through the final quarter of the year. The weak data strengthen the case for the Bank of England to consider rate cuts sooner, with the likelihood of a December reduction rising. But right now no one is trading the pound because of the comparatively higher UK yields, which explains why the EUR/GBP has been trending higher. And today, it is all about dollar weakness amid risk-off tone in the markets, making the likes of the euro, pound and franc more attractive, as foreign funds withdraw from US stocks. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Long
by FOREX.com
How to seize the real turning point for gold?Due to recent complex news, the operations of major gold trading funds have become more covert and unpredictable. The market may reverse at any time, breaking the current upward trend. Even if a technical pullback occurs, its magnitude could be significant, and the potential risks cannot be ignored. Therefore, a cautious approach should be taken in trading. Avoid blindly chasing the rally and patiently wait for stabilization signals after a pullback before establishing long positions. This is currently a more prudent and cost-effective choice. Following the market rhythm and acting in accordance with the trend is the core principle of future investment. From the current structure, the support level to watch is the 4190-4170 area. The performance of this range will be an important basis for judging the market direction and formulating trading strategies. By steadily grasping the rhythm and responding to fluctuations in accordance with the trend, one can achieve greater stability and go further in the gold market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Daniel_PrimeFX
This is a "buy-the-dip" (bullish) strategy for NAS100.Wait for the price to pull back into the support area between the 0.5 Fibonacci level (25,144.7) and the 0.618 level (25,006.7). Do not buy just because it touches the zone. Wait for a 4-hour candle to close within or above this zone, which confirms buyers are stepping in. Your targets to take profit are the 0 level (25,725.5) and the -0.5 level (26,306.3). Your stop loss would be placed below the 1 level (24,564.0), where the move started. PS. The FIB never lies.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by H3indrichwol22
2
EUR/USD Aiming for 1.1700, AgainEUR/USD has rallied near 1.1630 on Thursday, supported by firm messaging from European Central Bank officials and a moderate rebound in risk sentiment following the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown earlier this week. The pair briefly tested 1.1643, its highest level in two weeks, before easing slightly in midday trade. Comments from ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel helped underpin the Euro after she said inflation risks in the Eurozone remain “tilted a little to the upside,” suggesting policymakers are in no rush to discuss rate cuts. That hawkish tone reinforced expectations that the ECB will stay on hold through the end of the year. In the U.S., uncertainty persists following the short federal shutdown that delayed the release of key inflation and employment data. In the above chart, EUR/USD rates have broken the downtrend from the September and October swing highs, suggesting the recent period of weakness may be ending. The pair is on pace for its first close above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) since October 16. From a technician’s perspective, a breach of recent swing highs near 1.1669 would confirm that the series of lower highs and lower lows has ended. Until then, resistance could appear at first blush in the area around the late-September swing lows/late-October swing highs.
by tastyfx
LiamTrading – XAUUSD M45 | Fibonacci Perspective on the ...LiamTrading – XAUUSD M45 | Fibonacci Perspective on the Uptrend: watch for a sell at 2.618 @ 4229–4231, wait to buy at FVG 4174–4172 Quick Context: News about the U.S. government reopening eases tensions, but gold prices in the Asian session this morning only rose slightly before moving sideways – accumulating. On M45, the triangle has broken upwards but the buying momentum hasn't truly exploded; the market might retest the Fair Value Gaps (FVG) before choosing the next direction. Technical Analysis Trendline & M45 Structure: The uptrend after the breakout is running along a short-term rising trendline; the old triangle top becomes resistance near 4215. Fibonacci Extension: 2.272 ≈ 4215: pivot point; staying above this level opens the path to higher levels. 2.618 ≈ 4229–4231: extended resistance – an area prone to rejection/short-term reversal. FVG & Liquidity Zones: FVG #1: 4195–4198 – likely to fill before continuing upward. Liquidity: 4184–4188 – volume attraction zone between FVG and trendline. Fibo 0.618 + FVG: 4172–4174 – strong confluence for a buy-back scenario following the trend. Invalidation Level: breaking 4166 weakens the M45 uptrend structure, risking a pullback to lower zones. Trading Scenarios Scenario 1 – Trend-following Buy (priority) Entry: 4172–4174 (Fibo 0.618 + FVG) SL: 4166 TP: 4190 → 4215 → 4240 → 4280 Note: Prioritize if a clear rejection/long lower wick candle appears at 417x. Scenario 2 – Counter-trend Sell Scalp at Extended Resistance Entry: 4229–4231 (Fibo 2.618) SL: 4236 (above the nearest peak) TP: 4215 → 4196 → 4186 → 4175 Note: Quick trade; abandon if M45 closes strongly above 4231–4233. Scenario 3 – Buy on Break & Hold of 4215 Condition: M45 closes above 4215, retest holds 4212–4216 Entry: 4216–4218 SL: 4207 TP: 4229–4231 → 4260 → 4285–4300 Which price zone do you find noteworthy today? Comment below & hit Follow on LiamTrading for the latest updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
11/13/25 - $mtplf - How I hold BTC on tradfi11/13/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:MTPLF How I hold BTC on tradfi - good riddance $OBTC... the fmr way I owned bitcoin on tradfi rails - (OBTC/ Osprey) is such an incompetent team that i've been willing to ignore to get "cheap" bitcoin exposure that now it's not even at a compelling discount - take all the time you need, lads, to convert your $200M fund into an ETF when the SEC is already approving literally the wackiest other stuff - i've swapped this for Metaplanet (MTPLF) for several reasons: 1/ the discount on MTPLF to spot BTC is now about 10% (today) which is another 2-3% discounted vs. OBTC 2/ there are no "management fees" associated with MTPLF, unlike OBTC where they get 50bps for every year that passes and for their absolute incompetence, pitiful 3/ MTPLF has a yield bearing strategy of selling cash secured puts on a v underlevered balance sheet, which means on top of the discount you get yield (ETFs cannot do this) 4/ the low leverage also means they can start launching products like MSTR's stable-"coin" STRC in the JPY mkt which is really interesting 5/ i love the mgmt team. couldn't be a more competent group of bitcoiners (and this in absolute stark contracts to OBTC's dearth of brain cells or willingness to do anything in a reasonable amt of time) 6/ the JPY regulators have made it more difficult for copy cat products to compete which as you know is important in a first-mover, larger-and-therefore-more-liquid-trading-volume DAT world. this is to say... it *further* solidifies not only metaplanet's position but ALSO gives more runway to higher than NAV visibility (again, something ETFs can NOT achieve... they will always trade at 1x mnav). The downside is it's a foreign ticker so the cost to buy slugs of this thing is $50 bucks a trade. not cheap if you're in a small account, so make it worth your while and not a big % of your basis when you consider it. Hope that helps. More forthcoming on my YE strategy and 2026 outlook. Be well. Fade the norms. V
OTC:MTPLFLong
by VROCKSTAR
11/13/25 - $OBTC - Sold this to zero for MTPLF11/13/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:OBTC Sold this to zero for MTPLF - good riddance - this is such an incompetent team that i've been willing to ignore to get "cheap" bitcoin exposure that now it's not even at a compelling discount - take all the time you need, lads, to convert your $200M fund into an ETF when the SEC is already approving literally the wackiest other stuff - i've swapped this for Metaplanet (MTPLF) for several reasons: 1/ the discount on MTPLF to spot BTC is now about 10% (today) which is another 2-3% discounted vs. OBTC 2/ there are no "management fees" associated with MTPLF, unlike OBTC where they get 50bps for every year that passes and for their absolute incompetence, pitiful 3/ MTPLF has a yield bearing strategy of selling cash secured puts on a v underlevered balance sheet, which means on top of the discount you get yield (ETFs cannot do this) 4/ the low leverage also means they can start launching products like MSTR's stable-"coin" STRC in the JPY mkt which is really interesting 5/ i love the mgmt team. couldn't be a more competent group of bitcoiners (and this in absolute stark contracts to OBTC's dearth of brain cells or willingness to do anything in a reasonable amt of time) 6/ the JPY regulators have made it more difficult for copy cat products to compete which as you know is important in a first-mover, larger-and-therefore-more-liquid-trading-volume DAT world. this is to say... it *further* solidifies not only metaplanet's position but ALSO gives more runway to higher than NAV visibility (again, something ETFs can NOT achieve... they will always trade at 1x mnav). The downside is it's a foreign ticker so the cost to buy slugs of this thing is $50 bucks a trade. not cheap if you're in a small account, so make it worth your while and not a big % of your basis when you consider it. Hope that helps. More forthcoming on my YE strategy and 2026 outlook. Be well. Fade the norms. V
OTC:OBTC
by VROCKSTAR
MOG ETF?!Canary Capital has advanced its crypto product lineup with the launch of the first-ever MOG ETF in the United States. The firm filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 12 to introduce the new exchange-traded product. The MOG ETF aims to give traders direct access to MOG Coin’s spot price through a regulated market structure. Inside the Canary MOG ETF Filing The MOG ETF will operate as a trust and will hold MOG tokens in secure custody rather than using futures contracts. It seeks to mirror the spot market price of MOG Coin while deducting management expenses and operational costs. This structure allows traditional brokerage account holders to gain regulated access to the memecoin without using unregulated exchanges. The filing specifies that the MOG ETF will issue and redeem shares in large blocks known as Baskets. Each Basket represents a specific amount of MOG, either in cash or token form, ensuring consistent valuation. Authorized Participants will handle the creation and redemption of these Baskets through designated custodians. The Trust’s shares will trade on a registered exchange once approved, though the ticker symbol remains undisclosed. CSC Delaware Trust Company serves as trustee, while U.S. Bancorp Fund Services operates as transfer agent. Additionally, U.S. Bank N.A. will act as the cash custodian, and another appointed custodian will safeguard all MOG assets.
BITSTAMP:MOGUSDLong
by mrarroyo2u
11/13 XAUUSD: How should you trade after the surge?Fundamental Analysis: The U.S. government has officially ended its shutdown today. The passage of the funding bill will ensure continuous appropriations, providing operational funding for most federal agencies through January 30, 2026. Following the announcement, White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that due to the earlier government shutdown, it is unlikely that the October Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and CPI data will be released as scheduled. With the market eagerly awaiting data-driven guidance, this unexpected development has instead intensified risk aversion, triggering another sharp rally in gold prices. Technical Analysis: On the 4-hour chart, gold prices have reached the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level of the current uptrend, where they are now encountering resistance. At this stage, chasing the rally carries a potential pullback risk. Therefore, any further bullish positioning should ideally be considered after a corrective retracement. Support and Resistance: Support: $2,180 — today’s intraday low and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Resistance: $2,240–$2,250 — today’s intraday high and the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level. Trading Strategy: Primary bias: Buy on dips; short at highs as a secondary approach. Entry (Long): Consider buying near $2,180, provided the level holds and is not breached. Entry (Short): If gold rallies into the $2,240–$2,250 zone and fails to break above, consider short positions from that area.
TVC:GOLDLong
by James_AU
Bulls are in control, and gold is poised for new highs!Gold bulls have resumed their strong upward momentum, and the overall pattern has gradually shifted towards a bull market structure. Further gains are expected, potentially pushing towards previous historical highs. Technically, the bullish trend remains dominant after the breakout. However, during this sustained upward movement, short-term caution is advised regarding the risk of high-level consolidation and potential pullbacks. The key support level to watch is the 4220-4200 area. If the price stabilizes and holds above this level, the bullish trend is likely to continue. Long positions can be initiated in batches, patiently waiting for the trend to extend. Avoid blindly chasing highs; maintain a steady pace and wait for a pullback confirmation before entering a position. This is the key to a stable and prudent approach in a strong market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Daniel_PrimeFX
11/13/25 - $gamb - The definition of low IQ mkt11/13/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:GAMB The definition of low IQ mkt - had to take this to zero into results b/c the market has been telegraphing stuff - but honestly down 25-30%? it's almost sad how low IQ this mkt has become - buying the quantum tops, dumping a cash generating biz at the lows - if the above sounds like you... hfsp - so the 75% of the biz that's in decline is the SEO biz. let's imagine it has 3-5Y left and put it at a 3x EBITDA multiple... and then let's put the data biz at a >50% discount to any peer (and btw GAMB's growth is better) and call it 8x even - that gets u to an EV of about $300M which is about 20% above where the stock is implying here - will this just course correct? - probably not - but is the downside basically entirely baked in? - yes. - and if we somehow, do see low 4's into YE b/c of tax loss selling... i'll take this to a 15% position. - right now i'm buying spot at $5/shr and selling some dec/ 2026 $5c for income to CMA - but that's just b/c i'm playing it safe and it allows me to size it up V
NASDAQ:GAMBLong
by VROCKSTAR
MCHP Shows Upward Momentum, Target $77 (15% Move)MCHP has been trading in a sideways wedge range between roughly $62/68 since July, forming a descending wedge pattern. The price is approaching a breakout above the upper boundary of this consolidation, near the 1.618 Fibonacci level. It sits slightly above both the 50 and 200 day SMAs, offering dynamic support. Indicators show mild bullish signals: RSI at 57, MACD positive, but Stochastic in overbought territory suggests a possible short-term pullback. Volume shows buying dominance, though overall levels remain low. The recent breach of the descending trendline with a possible confirmation for by October 23th hints at a potential upward move, targeting around $77 , assuming the current momentum continues. Key support lies near $62/63, with immediate resistance around $68/69.
NASDAQ:MCHPLong
by rbeaujon
Daily SPY (US500-SPX) Outlook - Prediction (13 NOV)Daily SPY (US500-SPX) Outlook - Prediction (13 NOV) 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment appears neutral, in my opinion. The U.S. government is expected to reopen soon; however, officials have decided not to release previous economic data. This adds uncertainty for traders without data, it becomes difficult to gauge the FED’s next policy decision. 📈 Technical Analysis SPY experienced a range-bound session yesterday, consolidating between 680 and 685. On higher timeframes, price action still suggests a desire to expand higher, but momentum has temporarily slowed. 📌 Game Plan In my opinion, the market may show slight bearish pressure early in the session, followed by a moderate bullish bounce. Scenario 1: SPY may drop to 679 and bounce from there, returning to the 682–685 range. Scenario 2: If SPY breaks 679 aggressively, I expect a retracement toward 675. At that level, I plan to load calls for a potential bullish move. 💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL