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Fundamental Analysis

USDJPY - H4 | OutlookLooking at USDJPY I've noticed that it has been forming a rising wedge of sorts which could signal potential downward/bearish momentum (fueled by potential upcoming $ weakness). Should the market successfully manage to breakout of the wedge and start moving towards the 153.2xx - 153.0xx area where if that were to play out we'd expect a potential correction/pullback to the 154.4xx - 154.6xx area to confirm the breakout, which is also where I'd start looking for potential bearish opportunities/entries. But for now it'll be interesting to watch how the market plays out before taking any entries on USDJPY as it's still trading within the wedge and hasn't given any potential entry confirmations.
Short
by mosa_moshka
"Truth or Dare?"The parameter known as "Total" (All total market cap), shows a clear signal right now. Before explain the techniacl details, I'll explain why should this move work: Fundemental Details: - FED has cut the interest rates for second time this year and most likely do it again before the year ends in December which is the most bullish macro signal for crypto to rise. - US and China are trying to getting alone but behind the scenes the deal about tarrfis has already made long ago. They're just acting like they actually can carry on their political therats to each other to gain more political power. Trump is doing whatever he has done before when he got the crown. When all the nonsense ends, there won't be any problem left to think about tarrifs. - US also threathens Venesuale but I don't think that matter will last long. Nevertheless, the matter still casuing heat on globe and that causes uncertinty. - BOJ is another matter to keep in mind at the moment. The reason is, they announced that Japan may need to raise their interest rates in the next meeting which would be devastating for both crypto and all the markets on the globe. Crypto on the other hand, is facing this effect way sooner even before it happens, even if it won't happens. As you can guess, crypto markets are fragile. Every little tension means crises. That's one of the major reasons why it's actually losing value since last month. - Let's get back to FED. Yes, FED is cutting the rates for the second time and expected to cut again in December despite the words from Powell BUT, we already knew that. Right? As I mention about it on top, Crypto is fragile, but also very fast. When other markets are proccesing the reasons and possible outcomes of the news, crypto usually has already given the results of the possible news. Even if it's fake, unknown or unworthy to care about. Crypto is fast. That's why it already gave every opportuinty to invest and now, the investor are taking profit from the very bullish news you just read. "Sell the news" effect is just faster in crypto. Therefore, crypto has already gained the value it needed to gain. When you read the news or anything about crypto, remember one thing: it's already in the price. Bearish, or bullish. Won't matter. Now let's get back to the part you like: Technical details: There are two possible senarios: I'm not going to draw all the calculations on the chart so you won't confuse. Senario one, The one you see in the main chart: Total or Bitcoin, won't matter right now because they both going through same way. At the moment, we might be witnessing an A-B-C corrective pattern on Total. If you calculate enough, you'll reach the result that a perfect 5 waved uprising move has already happend and there is a possiblity that we might be in a corrective wave. Which, would result for TOTAL to drop at least 2.4 B levels. For Bitcoin, this level means it should drop down through around 80-85K. Senario Two (Hopefully): If the chart you see is a bear trap and the main bullish cycle is still on, it means we are at wave 4. Which means, Bitcoin still may dive under 100K but it won't last and we see even bigger all time highs in the coming month. Yes, in the coming month. In order to this senario work, FED must give clear signals about rate cuts in December, resessiong must end immidiatly, US and China must behave well enough to lower tension around the globe. If all the conditions met but price is still going side ways, it means get ready to see a "skyrocket candle". Thanks for reading.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by vs_sayin
1
TSLA In Trouble! WARNING!🚫 Why No One Should Be Holding TSLA Right Now Charting: Triple Top! Rising wedge fully formed 3-wave rising wedge structure that has hooked and broken! mini double top. I’ve been saying this for a while — no one should be long TSLA. The stock has done nothing since 2021, yet the hype machine for the boy band keeps spinning. Ask yourself honestly: Where does Tesla actually lead anymore? Not in EVs Not in autonomy Not in robots Not in AI Not in tech innovation It’s become a stock story with no story left. And when leadership is built on hype, not execution, it always ends the same way. Never invest in toxic leadership or cult narratives. TSLA is a real company, sure — but in fundamental terms, it’s an $8 stock wearing a $450 costume. If you agree and sell, and it's wrong. Guess what? You will have a bunch of cash waiting to buy it. If you disagree, you won't have a bunch of cash waiting to buy lower BC YOU NEVER SOLD! You can't "BUY THE DIP" Ubless you first SELL THE RIP! It's 2nd-grade math that the boy band who will come in here hating on my call again cannot do. They will give me colorful charts, tell me about cup and handles while riding it all the way down! They are always buying but NEVER selling. That's the trick with paper money, you can never run out of it. hahah! Click boost, follow, comment nicely for more authentic, no BS, raw analysis. Let's get to 6,000 followers. ))
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by RealMacro
12
GBP/USD Breakout Watch: Key Levels in FocusGBP/USD is trading inside a consolidation zone after a sharp recovery. A breakout above 1.31636–1.31962 may signal bullish continuation, while failure to hold support increases downside risk. Price dropped out of the recent consolidation box and is now trading below 1.31636 support. This breakdown shows short-term bearish pressure. If the pair stays below this zone, it may retest lower levels toward the recent lows. Bulls need a quick recovery back above 1.31636 to regain control.
Long
by Mira_Clara
23
Gold Faces a New Challenge — 4300 or 4010?Currently, there are signs of a head and shoulders pattern on the 30-minute chart. We need to pay attention to the shoulder resistance and trend support. If the head and shoulders pattern forms, the downside may reach the 4150-4140 area. If next week's data and news do not support the bulls, we should be wary of a larger head and shoulders pattern. As previously mentioned, there is still a gap below 4010. If this occurs, it's possible that the market will use this opportunity to fill the gap.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by China_MsWang
Gold: Watch Support Near 4168 and Resistance at 4252With strong rate-cut expectations combined with heightened geopolitical tensions, gold’s safe-haven appeal has been significantly reinforced, pushing prices back above the 4200 level. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, gold still has considerable upside potential, with some voices in the market even calling for a move toward 5000. In the short term, the U.S. government is about to resume operations, and the delayed economic data will soon be released. The market widely expects these reports to confirm a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, the White House has cautioned that October’s employment and inflation data may not be published on time due to the disruption caused by the shutdown. This uncertainty has further intensified concerns about the economic outlook, providing continuous support for gold’s upward momentum. However, it’s worth noting that the policies and data released after the government’s reopening remain uncertain. The market has already priced in a considerable portion of bullish expectations. If the actual results align with these expectations, the short-term upside could be limited; if they diverge, a corrective pullback would be likely. Therefore, proper risk management is essential to navigate potential volatility. Technical Outlook: On the daily chart, moving averages show a strong bullish alignment. The current uptrend is supported by the MA5 (around 4127), while the key support lies near the MA30 (around 4074). The MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and the price is moving between the Bollinger Bands’ middle line (4075) and upper band (4298). This means that during the price consolidation around 4200, key supports to watch are 4150–4127 and the middle band near 4075. (Indicator levels may shift as volatility increases, so real-time monitoring is recommended.) On the 1-hour chart, the main supports are 4168/4152/4138. As long as these levels hold, gold still has room to test 4223–4250 in the short term. With supportive news catalysts, a move toward 4300 cannot be ruled out. Overall, next week’s market will likely see heightened volatility. Opportunity and risk coexist — those who manage position size and timing well could see their profits multiply, while those lacking discipline and risk awareness could face severe drawdowns or even liquidation.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
Diversified Futures Paper Trading Setup: 5 Instruments, BalancedDetails / Description: Today, I set up a paper trading portfolio on TradingView using 5 instruments from different sectors/industries to practice diversification, risk management, and leverage. Strategy Highlights: Selected 1 instrument from each industry to reduce sector-specific risk. CME:MBT1! – Industrial / Metals CME_MINI:ES1! – S&P 500 Index CME_MINI:MNQ1! – Nasdaq 100 Index COMEX_MINI:MGC1! – Gold Mini Contract NYMEX:MCL1! – Crude Oil Mini Contract Used market orders for immediate entries. Set Take Profit and Stop Loss for each position with a rough 1:3 risk-reward ratio. Let positions run for the medium term (days to weeks) without constant monitoring. Margin and available funds carefully managed to ensure all positions can stay open safely. Purpose / Learning Goal: Practice portfolio diversification across different industries. Learn position sizing, risk-reward, and leverage management. Observe how unrealized and realized P/L evolve over time. Understand how stop losses and take profits help automate risk management. Next Steps: Monitor daily or via alerts, but avoid constant screen watching. Adjust future trades based on performance and market conditions.
CME:MBT1!
by binduinusa
2
GBP/USD rallies impressively to create potential reversalAlthough GBP/USD initially dipped after the release of disappointing UK data this morning, it has since recovered on broader risk-off trade, which has hurt the USD against most major currencies, most notably the euro. The GBP/USD has stormed higher after the false break below 1.3140 double bottom low from earlier this year. This level is key: bullish above it, bearish below it. Resistance is seen at 1.3250 and then 1.3310; bias bullish above these levels. UK GDP expanded by just 0.1% in the third quarter, undershooting expectations of 0.2% and slowing from 0.3% in the previous quarter. On a monthly basis, the economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%, against forecasts for flat growth. The figures highlight a clear loss of momentum compared to earlier in the year, when the UK had been outperforming other G7 economies. However, recent sentiment surveys indicate that both consumers and businesses are holding back on spending amid worries about significant tax increases expected in this month’s Budget. The UK economy continues to struggle for momentum, and these challenges may keep growth subdued through the final quarter of the year. The weak data strengthen the case for the Bank of England to consider rate cuts sooner, with the likelihood of a December reduction rising. But right now no one is trading the pound because of the comparatively higher UK yields, which explains why the EUR/GBP has been trending higher. And today, it is all about dollar weakness amid risk-off tone in the markets, making the likes of the euro, pound and franc more attractive, as foreign funds withdraw from US stocks. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Long
by FOREX.com
How to seize the real turning point for gold?Due to recent complex news, the operations of major gold trading funds have become more covert and unpredictable. The market may reverse at any time, breaking the current upward trend. Even if a technical pullback occurs, its magnitude could be significant, and the potential risks cannot be ignored. Therefore, a cautious approach should be taken in trading. Avoid blindly chasing the rally and patiently wait for stabilization signals after a pullback before establishing long positions. This is currently a more prudent and cost-effective choice. Following the market rhythm and acting in accordance with the trend is the core principle of future investment. From the current structure, the support level to watch is the 4190-4170 area. The performance of this range will be an important basis for judging the market direction and formulating trading strategies. By steadily grasping the rhythm and responding to fluctuations in accordance with the trend, one can achieve greater stability and go further in the gold market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Daniel_PrimeFX
This is a "buy-the-dip" (bullish) strategy for NAS100.Wait for the price to pull back into the support area between the 0.5 Fibonacci level (25,144.7) and the 0.618 level (25,006.7). Do not buy just because it touches the zone. Wait for a 4-hour candle to close within or above this zone, which confirms buyers are stepping in. Your targets to take profit are the 0 level (25,725.5) and the -0.5 level (26,306.3). Your stop loss would be placed below the 1 level (24,564.0), where the move started. PS. The FIB never lies.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by H3indrichwol22
2
EUR/USD Aiming for 1.1700, AgainEUR/USD has rallied near 1.1630 on Thursday, supported by firm messaging from European Central Bank officials and a moderate rebound in risk sentiment following the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown earlier this week. The pair briefly tested 1.1643, its highest level in two weeks, before easing slightly in midday trade. Comments from ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel helped underpin the Euro after she said inflation risks in the Eurozone remain “tilted a little to the upside,” suggesting policymakers are in no rush to discuss rate cuts. That hawkish tone reinforced expectations that the ECB will stay on hold through the end of the year. In the U.S., uncertainty persists following the short federal shutdown that delayed the release of key inflation and employment data. In the above chart, EUR/USD rates have broken the downtrend from the September and October swing highs, suggesting the recent period of weakness may be ending. The pair is on pace for its first close above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) since October 16. From a technician’s perspective, a breach of recent swing highs near 1.1669 would confirm that the series of lower highs and lower lows has ended. Until then, resistance could appear at first blush in the area around the late-September swing lows/late-October swing highs.
by tastyfx
LiamTrading – XAUUSD M45 | Fibonacci Perspective on the ...LiamTrading – XAUUSD M45 | Fibonacci Perspective on the Uptrend: watch for a sell at 2.618 @ 4229–4231, wait to buy at FVG 4174–4172 Quick Context: News about the U.S. government reopening eases tensions, but gold prices in the Asian session this morning only rose slightly before moving sideways – accumulating. On M45, the triangle has broken upwards but the buying momentum hasn't truly exploded; the market might retest the Fair Value Gaps (FVG) before choosing the next direction. Technical Analysis Trendline & M45 Structure: The uptrend after the breakout is running along a short-term rising trendline; the old triangle top becomes resistance near 4215. Fibonacci Extension: 2.272 ≈ 4215: pivot point; staying above this level opens the path to higher levels. 2.618 ≈ 4229–4231: extended resistance – an area prone to rejection/short-term reversal. FVG & Liquidity Zones: FVG #1: 4195–4198 – likely to fill before continuing upward. Liquidity: 4184–4188 – volume attraction zone between FVG and trendline. Fibo 0.618 + FVG: 4172–4174 – strong confluence for a buy-back scenario following the trend. Invalidation Level: breaking 4166 weakens the M45 uptrend structure, risking a pullback to lower zones. Trading Scenarios Scenario 1 – Trend-following Buy (priority) Entry: 4172–4174 (Fibo 0.618 + FVG) SL: 4166 TP: 4190 → 4215 → 4240 → 4280 Note: Prioritize if a clear rejection/long lower wick candle appears at 417x. Scenario 2 – Counter-trend Sell Scalp at Extended Resistance Entry: 4229–4231 (Fibo 2.618) SL: 4236 (above the nearest peak) TP: 4215 → 4196 → 4186 → 4175 Note: Quick trade; abandon if M45 closes strongly above 4231–4233. Scenario 3 – Buy on Break & Hold of 4215 Condition: M45 closes above 4215, retest holds 4212–4216 Entry: 4216–4218 SL: 4207 TP: 4229–4231 → 4260 → 4285–4300 Which price zone do you find noteworthy today? Comment below & hit Follow on LiamTrading for the latest updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
11/13/25 - $mtplf - How I hold BTC on tradfi11/13/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:MTPLF How I hold BTC on tradfi - good riddance $OBTC... the fmr way I owned bitcoin on tradfi rails - (OBTC/ Osprey) is such an incompetent team that i've been willing to ignore to get "cheap" bitcoin exposure that now it's not even at a compelling discount - take all the time you need, lads, to convert your $200M fund into an ETF when the SEC is already approving literally the wackiest other stuff - i've swapped this for Metaplanet (MTPLF) for several reasons: 1/ the discount on MTPLF to spot BTC is now about 10% (today) which is another 2-3% discounted vs. OBTC 2/ there are no "management fees" associated with MTPLF, unlike OBTC where they get 50bps for every year that passes and for their absolute incompetence, pitiful 3/ MTPLF has a yield bearing strategy of selling cash secured puts on a v underlevered balance sheet, which means on top of the discount you get yield (ETFs cannot do this) 4/ the low leverage also means they can start launching products like MSTR's stable-"coin" STRC in the JPY mkt which is really interesting 5/ i love the mgmt team. couldn't be a more competent group of bitcoiners (and this in absolute stark contracts to OBTC's dearth of brain cells or willingness to do anything in a reasonable amt of time) 6/ the JPY regulators have made it more difficult for copy cat products to compete which as you know is important in a first-mover, larger-and-therefore-more-liquid-trading-volume DAT world. this is to say... it *further* solidifies not only metaplanet's position but ALSO gives more runway to higher than NAV visibility (again, something ETFs can NOT achieve... they will always trade at 1x mnav). The downside is it's a foreign ticker so the cost to buy slugs of this thing is $50 bucks a trade. not cheap if you're in a small account, so make it worth your while and not a big % of your basis when you consider it. Hope that helps. More forthcoming on my YE strategy and 2026 outlook. Be well. Fade the norms. V
OTC:MTPLFLong
by VROCKSTAR
11/13/25 - $OBTC - Sold this to zero for MTPLF11/13/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:OBTC Sold this to zero for MTPLF - good riddance - this is such an incompetent team that i've been willing to ignore to get "cheap" bitcoin exposure that now it's not even at a compelling discount - take all the time you need, lads, to convert your $200M fund into an ETF when the SEC is already approving literally the wackiest other stuff - i've swapped this for Metaplanet (MTPLF) for several reasons: 1/ the discount on MTPLF to spot BTC is now about 10% (today) which is another 2-3% discounted vs. OBTC 2/ there are no "management fees" associated with MTPLF, unlike OBTC where they get 50bps for every year that passes and for their absolute incompetence, pitiful 3/ MTPLF has a yield bearing strategy of selling cash secured puts on a v underlevered balance sheet, which means on top of the discount you get yield (ETFs cannot do this) 4/ the low leverage also means they can start launching products like MSTR's stable-"coin" STRC in the JPY mkt which is really interesting 5/ i love the mgmt team. couldn't be a more competent group of bitcoiners (and this in absolute stark contracts to OBTC's dearth of brain cells or willingness to do anything in a reasonable amt of time) 6/ the JPY regulators have made it more difficult for copy cat products to compete which as you know is important in a first-mover, larger-and-therefore-more-liquid-trading-volume DAT world. this is to say... it *further* solidifies not only metaplanet's position but ALSO gives more runway to higher than NAV visibility (again, something ETFs can NOT achieve... they will always trade at 1x mnav). The downside is it's a foreign ticker so the cost to buy slugs of this thing is $50 bucks a trade. not cheap if you're in a small account, so make it worth your while and not a big % of your basis when you consider it. Hope that helps. More forthcoming on my YE strategy and 2026 outlook. Be well. Fade the norms. V
OTC:OBTC
by VROCKSTAR
MOG ETF?!Canary Capital has advanced its crypto product lineup with the launch of the first-ever MOG ETF in the United States. The firm filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 12 to introduce the new exchange-traded product. The MOG ETF aims to give traders direct access to MOG Coin’s spot price through a regulated market structure. Inside the Canary MOG ETF Filing The MOG ETF will operate as a trust and will hold MOG tokens in secure custody rather than using futures contracts. It seeks to mirror the spot market price of MOG Coin while deducting management expenses and operational costs. This structure allows traditional brokerage account holders to gain regulated access to the memecoin without using unregulated exchanges. The filing specifies that the MOG ETF will issue and redeem shares in large blocks known as Baskets. Each Basket represents a specific amount of MOG, either in cash or token form, ensuring consistent valuation. Authorized Participants will handle the creation and redemption of these Baskets through designated custodians. The Trust’s shares will trade on a registered exchange once approved, though the ticker symbol remains undisclosed. CSC Delaware Trust Company serves as trustee, while U.S. Bancorp Fund Services operates as transfer agent. Additionally, U.S. Bank N.A. will act as the cash custodian, and another appointed custodian will safeguard all MOG assets.
BITSTAMP:MOGUSDLong
by mrarroyo2u