AUDCHF fundamental analysis November 2025Australian Dollar (AUD): Very Bullish on Inflation Surprise
Reserve Bank of Australia Stance
The Australian Dollar received a powerful boost from the September quarter inflation data released on October 29, which delivered a significant upside surprise. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, well above the RBA's 2-3% target midpoint. More importantly, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure climbed 1.0% quarterly (beating 0.8% expectations and the RBA's August forecast of 0.6%), pushing the annual rate to 3.0%—the first uptick since December 2022.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock had explicitly stated earlier in the week that a 0.9% quarterly rise in trimmed mean inflation would be viewed as a "material miss". At 1.0%, the threshold was decisively crossed. Bullock also described the labor market as "a little tight" despite unemployment rising to 4.5%, and emphasized the RBA's unwillingness to "leap at a single number".
Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back
The inflation surprise has dramatically reshaped rate cut expectations. Markets now price only 2 basis points of easing for the November 4 meeting, and the first 25 basis point cut has been delayed from February 2026 to May 2026. This represents a stark shift from earlier expectations for near-term easing. The RBA cash rate remains at 3.60%, providing a substantial yield advantage over other major central banks.
November Outlook: Very Bullish
The Australian Dollar is the clear standout for November strength. AUD/USD surged to a three-week high of 0.6607 following the inflation data, and technical analysis suggests further upside potential toward 0.6706. The currency benefits from multiple tailwinds: delayed rate cuts relative to other central banks, particularly the Fed; buoyant risk sentiment following the preliminary US-China trade framework; and strong commodity prices, including copper near three-month highs. Against the weaker commodity currencies like CAD and NZD, the Australian Dollar is exceptionally well-positioned.
Swiss Franc (CHF): Bullish as Safe Haven Demand Persists
Swiss National Bank Policy
The Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0.00% and shows no inclination to move into negative territory despite franc strength. At its September meeting, the SNB notably refrained from describing the franc as "highly valued" or expressing concern over its appreciation—a significant shift in communication. This suggests the SNB has become more comfortable with franc strength, particularly as Switzerland's real exchange rate remains relatively stable due to low domestic inflation of just 0.2%.
Economic Environment
Switzerland's economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The SNB characterized current policy settings as "appropriately expansionary" despite the 0% rate, and expressed confidence that inflation will remain within the 0-2% target range. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with weaker growth prospects potentially limiting any hawkish policy adjustments.
November Outlook: Bullish
The Swiss franc's safe-haven status provides strong support in November's uncertain environment. EUR/CHF has been trading around 0.92-0.93, and analysts expect the pair to gradually appreciate toward 0.96 over the next 12 months, implying modest franc weakness against the euro. However, against the dollar, the franc is expected to strengthen significantly, with USD/CHF forecasts suggesting 0.77 within a year, with downside risks toward 0.75 or even 0.73. The franc's outperformance has persisted despite substantial interest rate differentials, demonstrating the power of safe-haven flows in the current geopolitical environment.
Verdict
We are dealing with two currently very strong currencies here who are battling out a close head-to-head race for 2025's top performer. However, going into November we expect AUD to pull ahead given its clear interest rate advantage meaning we are giving AUD/CHF a BUY for November.
If you are a user of the HalcyonFX.co trading bot you should set the trade direction on AUD/CHF to Buy only for the time being in order to minimize drawdown risks.
