The fear is out and folks are running for an exit; the reduction of short risk exposure in progress. Best time to look for long entries. However, watch for the transitioning of lower timeframes into bullish or sideways formations for potential long-term buy entries with reduced risk. A 1R return of $2K per contract is the minimum expected return here with a...
This analysis of CLJ2020, the contract for April 2020 delivery, is an attempt at forecasting oil price into Q3 2020. A potential supply area around 6275-6325 via an increasing urge to lock in profits/reduce short risk exposure. Also, the risk of downside for longs is ever more noticeable as oil approaches the 3-sigma area where odds of mean reversion greatly...
Oil price is seemingly getting bid at the important 315º @ 5770. Long entries from here with potential targets of 5890, a 45º movement and 6010, a 90º movement. The context to the left dictates a short, but we are going against the tide here to capture a decent return on minimal risk of 30 ticks.
Let's give it a shot.
When the candle of the specified date opens, I'm going to put my limit order at 6588.
if it reached the price long before that date, that's bearish and I'm not going to open such trade.
I'll update the idea when I put the order or cancel the trade.
Seemingly oil has completed a five-wave sequence. The structure seems odd, but overall this scenario seems to have some weight given the closing of the week where bulls decided to take profit. I expect that next week starts off red before another bullish leg. It makes sense to look for fading setups in the lower timeframes.
Seemingly oil has run into the supply area via profit booking. The traders are reducing short risk exposure and are likely to enter for continuation on a pullback. The fading short setup looks valid at this point. However, in the context of the recent price action, the probability of this trade is not the best that we could have.
Rule for 1D chart with 45degree angles:
price/bar ratio should be 24 (1point per hour)
or some other 1(price unit) x 1(time unit) ratio you like.
(without a 1x1 price ratio it will not work well)
the downtrend one shows how to read it.
The far from the 45degree, the FAST it moves.
The closer it gets to the 45degree, the velocity get slower...
CLN19 is seemingly approaching a demand area near the psychological $50 mark. The 45º line coming from 0 of the previous major high was touched yesterday and this is expected to support the price around this level. Looking for long entries seems reasonable at this point.