Long
NOLEADGASOLINE (4H) | Updated Elliott Wave RoadmapThe updated roadmap shows Wave I completed and Wave II still unfolding as a complex correction before the next major bullish expansion.
Aggressive Scenario
In the aggressive view, Wave II may resolve as a Triple Zigzag (W-X-Y-X-Z).
This would allow the market to complete the correction sooner and begin a fast Wave III advance.
This path becomes more credible if price breaks the Corrective Channel and the Terminal Channel, signaling that the corrective phase is losing control.
Conservative Scenario
In the conservative view, price may still develop a deeper Simple Zigzag (A-B-C).
That would mean a longer correction before the next impulsive leg begins.
So the bullish structure remains valid — but the market may need more time to finish the cleanup before it can sprint again.
Markets love drama, but they still respect structure. 😉
Key Levels
Bull Market (Aggressive): 31,512
Bull Market (Conservative): 36,868
Bear Market (Conservative): 30,107
First Invalidation: 30,525
Major Invalidation / Beginning: 16,777
Targets
42,077 — First Target Range
49,902 — Target Range
54,787 — Expanded Target
Technical Zones
Retracement Band: 38.2% – 50.0%
Deeper Retracement Band: 50.0% – 61.8% – 78.6%
Pattern Focus: Leading Diagonal, Terminal Channel, Corrective Channel
Price gives the destination,
time gives the rhythm,
subdivision confirms the truth.
Mr. Nobody 
Long
GASOLINE (4H) — The Choice: Aggressive Launch or the 11-Swing PaAnalysis Date: May 30, 2026
The gasoline market is currently at a structural crossroads. While the primary bias remains firmly bullish, the internal geometry of the current correction is offering two distinct paths.
I’m tracking the $2.8443 level as the ultimate line in the sand. Above this, the bullish thesis holds the floor.
Scenario 1: The Aggressive Launch (1.2 & 1.2 Cycle)
The market may have already completed two cycles of 1-2 sequences. If this is the case, the correction is over, and we are on the verge of a Wave 3 impulse.
The Signal: A clean breakout above the current Corrective Channel and immediate bullish momentum.
The Logic: No more time for downside; the market is ready to sprint toward the first target range of 3.85−3.85−3.88.
Scenario 2: The Conservative Path (Triple Zigzag & The 11-Swing Theory)
If the market demands more time to balance the structure, we might see a more complex Triple Zigzag (W-X-Y-X-Z).
The Wave X Move: A brief “Wave X” bounce followed by one last drop into Wave Z.
The 161.8% Factor: In a sharp zigzag, Wave C can extend toward the 161.8% projection. This doesn’t break the bullish idea; it simply deepens the correction within the Blue Box (PRZ).
The Logic: This path completes an 11-swing sequence, washing out the final weak hands before the real rally begins.
The Blue Box: Not Support, But a Decision Zone
I am watching the Blue Box closely. This is where the “aggressive idea” meets its ultimate test. If price enters this zone and shows a structural reversal, the “Z-wave” is likely finished, and the macro-cycle can resume.
Key Levels to Watch:
Invalidation: $2.8443
Primary Targets:
3.8588
(𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡1)∣3.8588(Target1)∣4.4866 (Equal Wave 1) | $4.8732 (Expanded Target)
Trading isn’t about being right; it’s about being prepared for how the structure unfolds.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody
“Elliott Wave Foresight: Gasoline Market’s Deep Breath and Corre May 15
Long 
GASOLINE Daily Elliott Wave UpdateGASOLINE topped out at 4.4232 on Mon 06 Jun 2022 and then started dropping.
The decline looks like a classic three-wave corrective zigzag, and wave © formed an ending diagonal.
The structure finished around the 1.6799 invalidation level — so, based on the data from the chart, both scenarios you’re watching are now invalidated.
Pay close attention: wave © broke out of the corrective channel.
In patterns where wave (A) is sharp (impulsive-like), wave © often ends up building an ending diagonal.
And here’s the interesting part: if the final wave is diagonal (whether it’s coming from an impulse-style path or a diagonal zigzag), price sometimes does the opposite and effectively reverses/cancels the whole ending diagonal structure.
Now I’ve got two ideas for the next move:
Blue aggressive idea:
If price breaks above the previous peak (your current “blue” level) and then forms any corrective pattern, while keeping respect for the move into First invalidation at 2.8490, then the bullish setup stays fully valid with strong confirmation.
Black conservative idea:
Alternatively, the final part of wave 5 of I might still be unfolding, and then we could be entering a fresh corrective phase.
If that happens, it can also match a bullish outlook for the gas oil market overall.
I’m “Mr. Nobody” — I listen to what the patterns say, and I’m sharing what the chart is telling us.
Long 
$UGA — All 5 MAs Agree. This Rarely Happens.UGA (US Gasoline Fund) is one of the cleanest structural setups on the board right now. Here's what the moving averages are actually telling us — and why most traders read them wrong.
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📐 What the MAs show:
Price is sitting above all five major moving averages — 10, 20, 50, 150, and 200. Full MA alignment. Every single one sloping upward and stacked in order:
10 > 20 > 50 > 150 > 200
Textbook confirmed uptrend. But here's the educational part — knowing that isn't the edge. Knowing WHERE in the trend you are is.
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🎓 The MA Hierarchy — What Each Level Means:
MA 10 (green) → Short-term momentum. When price stays above it, buyers are in full control daily. UGA hasn't closed below the 10 in over a week.
MA 20 (cyan) → The swing trader's MA. Where institutional pullback buyers step in. Currently acting as dynamic support around $95-96.
MA 50 (yellow) → The intermediate trend. If price holds above 50, trend is healthy. UGA's 50 sits at ~$80 — deep cushion of support below.
MA 150 & 200 (orange/red) → The macro structure. These crossed bullish months ago. Firmly separated and rising. When these are aligned — you're in a macro uptrend. Period.
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⛽ Why This Matters Right Now:
When ALL five MAs are aligned, stacked, and rising — AND price just broke to new highs at $103 — you're looking at one of the strongest structural configurations in technical analysis.
The risk isn't "is the trend real?" — it clearly is.
The risk is buying the extension.
Price is currently:
• +8% above the 10 MA
• +30% above the 50 MA
That extension means any pullback to the 20 MA (~$95) would be a structural retest , not a trend break.
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😱 Fear & Greed Read:
Sentiment oscillator shows 68 — GREED.
Not extreme greed (80+), but elevated. Momentum has conviction without blow-off. Previous UGA sentiment peaks reached 85+ before meaningful pullbacks.
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👁 What to Watch:
• Pullback to the 20 MA (~$95) → First structural test. Potential high-quality entry for trend followers.
• Break below the 50 MA ($80) → First real warning the trend is changing.
• Sentiment above 80 → Caution for new entries.
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🧠 The Takeaway:
Moving averages aren't just lines. They're a hierarchy.
Each one represents a different group of market participants and a different timeframe of conviction.
When all five agree — that's rare. That's structure. That's what UGA is showing right now.
Whether you act on it depends on your risk management and timeframe. The structure just tells you the environment.
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Indicators: MA Lens (7-MA educational overlay) + Composite Fear & Greed Index — both free by Algoativi 
Long
The Calm Before the Storm: $16/Gallon Forecast by 2035Greetings to the seekers of signal amidst the noise. To those who prefer the cold clarity of reality over the polished narratives of mainstream forecasts.
While the majority are distracted by Valentine’s Day cards, we are looking at a "valentine" of a completely different scale—one written in crude oil, blood, and gunpowder across the pages of world history.
In the history of "Black Gold," mid-February isn't about romance; it’s about the hard-nosed handshakes that defined the fate of our civilization:
February 14, 1945: Aboard the USS Quincy, FDR and King Ibn Saud signed the blueprint for the modern world. This birthed the "Quincy Pact"—the foundation of the petrodollar system that has underpinned the global financial dominance of the United States for the last 80 years.
February 14, 1971: The Tehran Agreement struck the first blow to this monopoly. It signaled the end of the era where Western oil giants (the "Seven Sisters") dictated prices, shifting the initiative to the exporters of OPEC.
Today, February 14, 2026: We stand at the final decommissioning of these legacy rules. The old paradigm is collapsing; the Quincy Pact has been functionally annulled by history itself. The Strait of Hormuz is becoming the ultimate "bottleneck" through which the global economy must pass—with significant friction and at a heavy cost.
This is not just another market update. It is a Strategic Warning. While "market hype-peddlers" distract the public with fairy tales of a "Green Transition" and "Soft Landings," we will analyze why the world's primary energy source is preparing for a vertical lift-off. This surge will likely reset the savings of millions and force the public onto electric scooters—not out of environmental concern, but out of necessity driven by systemic inflation.
Today, we will break down the current phase using Elliott Wave Theory, identify which energy stocks are still in the "accumulation zone" before they hit the stratosphere, and take a look behind the curtain of global geopolitics where the final pieces are being moved for the endgame.
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📈 Technical and Wave Analysis: The Super-Cycle Perspective
Prices are entering the home stretch before a vertical surge, a scenario we have already witnessed in precious metals. While many expected this move sooner, we must remain objective about the asset: the oil market is not just about supply and demand—it is the ultimate expression of global power and strategic monopolies.
To understand the future, we must acknowledge the psychological extremes of the past five years:
⚫️ 2020 (The COVID-19 Shock): A point of total capitulation. Brent TVC:UKOIL crashed to $17, and deliverable WTI futures TVC:USOIL famously committed "historical hara-kiri," dropping into negative territory at -$37 per barrel. The shock of a seller having to pay to get rid of their product was the ultimate "blood in the streets" moment.
⚫️ 2020–2022 (The QE Impulse): Massive monetary expansion and "helicopter money" created a violent inflationary pulse. Prices recovered by +600%, peaking near $135 in the first half of 2022. According to Elliott Wave theory, this entire move from $17 to $135 should be interpreted as Wave 1 of a new global bullish super-cycle.
⚫️ 2022–2026 (The Great Consolidation): For the last four years, the market has been trapped in Wave 2—the phase of disappointment and exhaustion.
Wave A (or W): The sharp correction from $135 down to $70.
Wave B (or X): A grueling two-year sideways grind (range-bound $70–$90) that forced out the last of the retail optimists.
Wave C (or Y): The recent "cleansing" dip toward $60, which served as the final flush before the next major impulse.
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📊 The Great American Energy Paradox: Exporting Surplus, Importing Necessity
At first glance, the data seems contradictory: the United States is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters, yet it remains tethered to foreign supply. In 2024, the U.S. exported nearly 4 billion barrels of oil—over half of its total domestic production. This massive outflow of crude and petroleum products underscores America's status as a global energy powerhouse.
The Refinery Mismatch: Why export 55% of your production while continuing to import heavily, particularly from Canada? The answer lies in Quality and Configuration.
The Supply: Most U.S. shale production is "Light, Sweet" Crude (LTO)—low in sulfur and easy to process.
The Infrastructure: However, the massive refinery complexes on the Gulf Coast were engineered decades ago to process "Heavy, Sour" grades—the thick, high-sulfur oil typical of traditional giant fields.
Consequently, the U.S. exports its light surplus to global markets while importing the heavier grades its refineries actually crave. This isn't a failure; it’s a Logistical Optimization.
The Canadian Lifeline: In 2024, 61.7% of U.S. crude imports came from Canada. While South and Central America contribute about 16.3%, the dependency on our northern neighbor is the real story. Since 2013, Canada’s share of U.S. imports has skyrocketed from 33% to over 60%. Despite record domestic production of 13.4 million barrels per day, the U.S. refinery system—and by extension, its economy—is more reliant on Canadian "heavy" barrels than ever before.
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⏳ The Current Setup: Accumulation and the "Market Flush" Risk
For the past year, "Black Gold" has been consolidating in a tight, frustrating range between $60 and $70 per barrel. For the retail speculator, this is a "boring" market; for Smart Money, this is a Class-A Accumulation Zone.
🗯 The Core Thesis: "Any price print below $70 should be viewed as an anomalous entry point—a generational 'gift' that will be envied in the years to come."
However, we must address the Tactical Deleveraging Risk. As we look toward a potential 40–50% correction in overextended Tech and Equity indices during 2026, oil will likely be caught in the "Margin Call Crossfire."
When systemic deleveraging begins, large funds sell what is liquid to cover what is losing. We should prepare for a "Flash Flush" toward $50—or lower in a 2020-style panic.
Why the "Flush" is Mathematically Necessary:
Total Capitulation: To wipe out "weak hands" and leveraged bulls who are betting on a bounce too early.
Asset Transfer: To move the final physical barrels from panicked retail hands into institutional vaults and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at bottom-tier prices.
Psychological Warfare: To create a "Death of Oil" narrative in the mainstream media, masking the beginning of the actual vertical impulse.
The Investor’s Playbook: A temporary dip to $50 is not a reason to flee; it is the ultimate opportunity to increase energy exposure. Historically, oil doesn't linger at these forced lows. The moment the Fed reactivates the printing presses to save the collapsing equity indices, and the geopolitical "Hormuz Trigger" is pulled, oil will be the first asset to enter a vertical price discovery phase.
This is where we get into the "Meat and Potatoes" for the Western investor—the actual numbers and the strategic logic that explains why the status quo is a ticking time bomb.
I’ve adapted the tone to be analytical yet urgent, framing the $300 target as a logical outcome of monetary debasement rather than just a "wild guess."
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❓ What’s Next? The 2020–2035 Macro Forecast
Once the current "bottoming" structure completes, the market will enter Wave 3. In technical analysis, the third wave is the most powerful, the longest, and the most merciless to short-sellers. It doesn't offer "second chances" on pullbacks; it simply re-prices reality.
Short-term Volatility (2026): If the broader equity markets face a 30-50% deleveraging event, oil could see a sharp -30% "liquidity flush" toward $50. This will be a blink-and-you-miss-it event.
The Near-Term Goal: A return to the triple-digit zone—$100+. This is when the legacy media will start screaming about an "Energy Crisis," but for us, it’s just the beginning.
The Global Target: Long-term projections suggest a range of $300–$500 per barrel by 2030–2033.
While these numbers sound like hyperbole today, remember that Gold at $2,500+ sounded like a hallucination in the early 2000s when it traded at $250. When you factor in the debasement of fiat currencies, the dismantling of global supply chains, and a decade of chronic underinvestment in drilling, these targets aren't just possible—they are a mathematical inevitability.
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📊 The "Canadian Shield" and the "Shale Cul-de-Sac"
There is a fundamental misunderstanding of U.S. energy "independence." Let’s look at the hard data:
The Technology Paradox: The U.S. is the #1 producer (21.7 million barrels/day), but it cannot consume its own "menu." American shale is Light Sweet Crude (LTO). However, 70% of the complex refinery capacity in Texas and Louisiana is "hard-wired" to process Heavy Sour (sulfuric) crude.
Canada as the Lifeboat: This is why U.S. imports from Canada have surged to 61.7% (approx. 4 million barrels/day). Canada provides the heavy bitumen that keeps U.S. refineries from seizing up. The U.S. is "addicted" to Canadian heavy barrels.
The Strategic Pivot: OPEC’s share of U.S. imports has cratered to 11.9%. The U.S. is physically separating from the Middle East, but they are still vulnerable to the global price set by OPEC+.
The Venezuelan Logic: Venezuelan crude is the "twin" of Canadian heavy oil and the perfect feed for U.S. refineries. More importantly, it is significantly cheaper to extract than Canadian oil sands.
The "Trump" Realism: Instead of fighting environmental battles over the Keystone XL pipeline from the North, it is strategically more efficient to secure the Venezuelan supply to the South. A short sea route through the Gulf of Mexico is the ultimate insurance policy.
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🌡️ The Gasoline Pulse: Breaking the "1–2–4" Paradigm
To gauge where we are going, ignore the tech-heavy Nasdaq and look at the price sign at your local gas station. The FRED:GASREGW (US Regular Gas Price) is the true pulse of the economy, reflecting the real cost of logistics and consumer purchasing power.
The Era of Social Stability (1990–2022): For 35 years, the Western world operated under the "1–2–4 Rule." This range was the "holy grail" of social peace:
The 90s: Post-Cold War dividend. Gas was stable at $1–$1.50.
The 2000s: Emerging market demand shifted the corridor to $2–$4.
The 12-Year Trap (2008–2020): After the 2008 peak ($4), prices spent 12 years in a "Symmetric Triangle." In Wave Theory, this is a compressed spring, coiling energy for a violent release.
In 2020, as the world exited the pandemic shock, the "spring" finally snapped. Price shot through the $4 resistance and hit an all-time high of $5 by the summer of 2022. What the public thinks is a "return to normal" right now is actually a re-test of the breakout. We are sitting on the old $3–$4 ceiling, which has now become the new floor.
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🚀 The Transition: Entering the "4–8–16" Reality
What the public mistakes for a "return to normal" is actually a textbook technical move: a prolonged re-test of a broken resistance level. From a macro-technical perspective, the price has simply returned to the midpoint of the old $2–$4 range to establish a massive new support base.
As of early 2026, we’ve seen prices dip toward $2.77/gallon—a nearly 50% retracement from the 2022 all-time highs. To the untrained eye, it looks like the crisis is over. To the analyst, it looks like a spring being coiled.
The 2026–2040 Paradigm: The era of $2.00 gasoline is officially a museum exhibit. We are entering a cycle where price targets are essentially doubling across the board:
The Floor: $4.00 (the old ceiling).
The Median: $8.00.
The Cycle Target: $16.00 per gallon.
This isn't just "price movement"; it is a forced transformation of the American lifestyle. With 80% of U.S. logistics dependent on trucking, $12–$15 gasoline makes traditional internal combustion (ICE) ownership a luxury and turns standard delivery services into "premium" expenses.
This serves as a cynical but effective tool: using an inflationary shock to "reset" the public’s savings and move them toward a digital, electric-based economy—not through incentives, but through the sheer inability to afford the old way of life.
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🧮 The Math of the "CP-Lie": Inflation Alchemy
When gasoline prices inevitably surge by +300% toward the $12 mark, it will trigger a chain reaction that no amount of statistical massaging can fully hide:
Direct CPI Contribution: A surge of this magnitude adds an immediate 10–15% to the headline Consumer Price Index.
The Real Number: Combined with baseline inflation, we are looking at CPI prints of +20%—levels associated with war-time economies or hyperinflationary collapses.
The "Statistical Pivot": To prevent a total panic, expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to engage in "methodological adjustments." We will likely see the "weighting" of gasoline in the CPI basket reduced, under the guise that "consumers are driving less," thereby artificially dampening the reported inflation rate.
The objective is clear: create such friction for ICE vehicle owners that the transition to EVs (Tesla and its peers) becomes a survival tactic rather than a choice.
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📈 The SPR Trap: Refilling the War Chest
While oil prices are being "marinated" in this lower range, the U.S. administration is executing a classic "buy the dip" strategy. Looking at the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) ECONOMICS:USCOSPRE chart, we are seeing the active reconstruction of the nation's energy cushion.
After the previous administration drained the reserves to combat the 2022 price spike, the current leadership has pivoted to aggressive accumulation. Over the last 30 months, reserves have climbed by 70 million barrels (+20%), rising from a critical floor of 354 million to the current 415 million barrels.
The Market Signal: This accumulation creates a massive, artificial floor under the market. As long as "Texas Tea" stays below $80, the U.S. government remains the ultimate "Whale" buyer, preventing a total price collapse. They are racing to restore the strategic buffer before the Semiquincentennial (250th Anniversary of the US) celebrations and the next election cycle are over.
The Warning: The current "discount" at the pump ($2.80/gallon) is a temporary pre-election/pre-celebration gift. Once the SPR tanks are topped off and the political cycle concludes, the accumulated supply deficit will hit the consumer with triple force. The safety valve is being closed—those barrels are now being held for the "Black Swan" of a hot war, leaving the domestic market to face the new $8–$16 paradigm alone.
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📊 The Inventory vs. Production Gap: A Glaring Anomaly
When we look at the global energy map, we see a striking contradiction that the mainstream media rarely discusses. It is the contrast between "The Sprint" (U.S. Shale) and "The Marathon" (Conventional Super-Giants).
The Reserves Paradox: Venezuela holds 19.4% of the world’s proven oil reserves (#1 globally), yet its current production is a fraction of its potential due to years of infrastructure decay and sanctions.
The U.S. Mirage: In contrast, the United States—currently the world's #1 producer—controls only 2.9% of global reserves.
This is the definition of a "burn rate" problem. The U.S. is sprinting to maintain its dominance while its underlying "fuel tank" is dangerously low compared to its competitors.
♟️ The Concentration of Power: The New Geopolitical Axis
The "Big Three"—Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Iran—collectively control nearly 50% of the planet's oil. This is the ultimate geopolitical fulcrum. If these three nations coordinate their policies (or fall under the influence of a single bloc like BRICS+), they possess the absolute power to dictate global energy prices.
The "Refinery Symbiosis" (The Hidden Detail): Venezuelan oil is primarily Extra-Heavy Crude from the Orinoco Belt (API gravity <15°). It is difficult to extract, but here is the catch: the most sophisticated refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast were specifically "over-engineered" to process exactly this type of heavy, sulfurous grade.
Venezuela has the raw material.
The U.S. has the specialized "kitchens" to cook it. It is a symbiotic relationship that Washington cannot ignore.
⚠️ The Shale Limit: America’s "Pedal to the Metal" Problem
On paper, the U.S. looks like an untouchable hegemon, pumping 20 million barrels per day (mb/day)—nearly double the output of Saudi Arabia or Russia. However, this record production is not a sign of infinite strength; it is a sign that the U.S. is redlining its engine.
Depletion Rates: The nature of shale (LTO) is that well productivity drops off a cliff very quickly. To maintain 20 mb/day, U.S. operators must drill faster and more aggressively every year just to stand still. This is "production at the limit."
OPEC’s "Wait and See" Strategy: While the U.S. pumps at 100% capacity, Saudi Arabia and Russia are intentionally "idling." They have significant spare capacity but are playing the long game—saving their resources and manipulating the market by tightening supply.
The Strategic Dead End: The U.S. is depleting its scarce 2.9% reserve base at record speed, leaving itself with zero margin for error in the coming decade.
🕵️ The Macro Assessment: Preparing for the "Grand Swap"
When you overlay these two realities—depleting U.S. reserves vs. massive Venezuelan potential—the true picture of the global energy crisis emerges:
The Geopolitical Cul-de-Sac: To maintain superpower status and prevent domestic gas prices from hitting $15/gallon, the U.S. vitally needs access to foreign heavy reserves.
Venezuela as the Only Exit: It is the only country in the Western Hemisphere that can replace the depleting U.S. shale fields. Its 303 billion barrels are the "Holy Grail" for Washington’s long-term survival.
The Iranian Variable: While Iran pumps 5.1 mb/day, it remains a fierce competitor. The strategy is clear: neutralize or bypass Iranian influence while "on-shoring" Venezuelan supply. This is the only way for the U.S. to reformat the market and secure its energy leadership for the next 30 years.
The Bottom Line: We are witnessing a global "castling" move. The U.S. is pumping its own soil dry to bridge the gap until it can secure control over the Venezuelan resource. This isn't just economics; it's a fight for the physical survival of the American system. Without the Venezuelan "backstop," the current U.S. production record will turn into a precipitous decline within years, threatening both the Dollar and the "American Dream."
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📊 The Strategic Playbook: Black Gold Through 2035
On a decade-long horizon, the logic is as simple as it is cold: focus on the two sectors that sit at the very beginning of the value chain: E&P (Exploration & Production) and Oilfield Services.
In an environment of global currency debasement and fractured supply lines, these companies act as the ultimate inflation sponges. They own the physical molecules and the proprietary technology required to extract them. This allows them to pass rising costs directly to the end consumer, protecting—and often expanding—their margins while the rest of the economy struggles to breathe.
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🏁 Epilogue: On the Ruins of the Old Order
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The world we’ve known for decades—the world of cheap logistics, affordable V8 muscle cars, and Petrodollar-induced stability—is evaporating like a drop of gasoline on hot asphalt. While the general public is distracted by currency swings and the latest tech gadgets, the "curtain" has already been raised on the Era of Great Scarcity.
We are at a unique and daunting juncture in history. The 2026–2028 period will be remembered as the moment when financial masks were stripped away and virtual wealth (the "zeros" in bank accounts) lost the battle against physical reality.
The choice today is binary:
You understand the mechanics of this Systemic Wealth Transfer and own the assets physically required for this civilization to function.
Or, you become the "fuel" that pays for the elite's transition into the new technological paradigm.
A Final Warning: When oil moves into the triple digits and stays there, and supply chains finally snap under the weight of geopolitical ambition, it will be too late to seek a "safe haven." Inflationary shocks do not respect borders or political affiliations—they simply reset the wealth of those who lived in the illusion of eternal abundance.
The companies identified in this report are not just "tickers" on a screen; they represent your seat in the First Tier—the group that exits this storm with real capital instead of a pile of devalued paper.
I have converted the chaos of the headlines into a clear strategic roadmap. If this analysis has challenged your perspective or sharpened your focus, hit the "Rocket" 🚀 icon below.
See you at the "refueling stations of the new reality." Fasten your seatbelts; we are entering a zone of maximum turbulence. The ascent will be vertical, and only the prepared will remain on board.
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🙏 "Thank you for your attention to this matter." ©
☘️ Good luck, and stay vigilant.
📟 Over and out. 
Long
Long 
Short 
RB - US Gasoline Futures to Decline due to Lower ConsumptionNYMEX: RBOB Gasoline Futures ( NYMEX:RB1! )
WTI crude oil futures declined 13.4% since the beginning of the year. It dropped as much as $20 from the mid-January peak of $80 a barrel, before recovering to $64 last week.
In my commentary on February 11th, “Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil Lower”, I described the main reasons behind the oil market correction:
• US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy by President Trump as “Drill Baby Drill”
• OPEC+ to increase crude oil production, ending its voluntary production cuts
• Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand
First, on March 31st, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) reported that U.S. field production of crude oil reached 13.146 million barrels per day (mb/pd), up 592 mb/pd or +4.7% from the year-ago level. This is the highest January production level since 1920!
Second, on April 3rd, the OPEC+ members met and decided to end the voluntary production cuts, gradually bringing back 2.2 mb/pd additional supply to the oil market.
Third, Reciprocal Tariff has brought the container shipping industry to its knees. MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, which ferry goods for retail giants like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot, have seen sharp declines in booking. The tariff uncertainty caused many importers to cancel their orders. This could cause major consequences.
According to Statista, about 71% of the items sold on Amazon were sourced from China. The procurement for Christmas-season products has already begun. Without a US-China trade deal, US consumers could expect fewer gift options at higher prices. Inflation could rebound sooner, as merchants deplete their inventory and face a supply shortage.
This could hurt gasoline demand. On the one hand, higher shopping costs cut into consumer spending budget; on the other, fewer deals at retailers discourage shoppers from taking a trip.
On April 18th, American Automotive Association (“AAA”) reported that national average price for regular gas was $3.182 per gallon, down 14% from the year-ago level.
On April 19th, RBOB gasoline futures quoted $2.0839 per gallon, up 1.8% year-to-date. This contrasts sharply with the down trends in the spot market and the oil futures market.
The April EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (“STEO”) report states that U.S. retail price for regular gasoline averages $3.10 per gallon in its forecast for this summer (April–September), about 20 cents less than the previous forecast in March. The lower price forecast mostly reflects the expectation of lower crude oil prices. If realized, the forecast gasoline price would be the lowest inflation adjusted summer average price since 2020.
In my opinion, gasoline prices could stay relatively high during the peak summer driving season. After that, Gas prices could turn significantly lower through the end of the year.
Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on April 15th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX RBOB Futures is 418,277 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 52,114 in Long, 36,615 in Short and 47,628 in Spreading positions.
• While they maintain a long-short ratio of 1.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 5,198 (-9%) while increasing short positions by 6,021 (+14%).
• This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on gasoline.
Trade Setup with RBOB Futures
If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures ( CSE:RB ).
RB contracts have a notional value of 42,000 gallons of gasoline oil. With Friday settlement price of $2.0149, each September contract (RBU5) has a notional value of $84,626. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $5,840.
Hypothetically, a trader shorts September RB contract and RBOB prices drop to $1.90. A short futures position would gain $4,826 (= (2.0149 – 1.90) x $42000). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +82.6% (= 4826 / 5840).
The risk of shorting gasoline futures is rising oil and gas prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop-loss at $2.10 when entering the short order at $2.0149. If gasoline price continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $3,574 ( = (2.10 – 2.0149) *42000).
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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GASOLINE sits 4 straight months on the Support. Expect reboundGasoline (RB1!) has been trading on the 4-year Support Zone for 4 straight months, forming a confirmed technical bottom. The September 09 Low was also on the Lower Lows of the long-term Falling Wedge, which makes the probabilities of a rebound even stronger.
At the same time, the 1W RSI bounced from oversold territory (below 30.00) and has stabilized back above its MA trend-line, confirming a bullish reversal. In addition, the 1W MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, with the previous 2 such formations since January 2023 aligning with the Wedge's Bullish Legs.
The previous Lower Lows bottom reached marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result we remain committed to our long-term Target of 2.600 (below also the Lower Highs trend-line), which we expect to get hit within the next 4 months.
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