RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - there has been speculation that the bank will cut rate today. In anticipation of this most of the NZD pairs have shown NZD to be weak as other have gained.
However, looking at all NZD pairs it seems that the gains have been of the corrective nature. Therefore, if the rates are maintained there could be spike in the prevailing...
I split this into two orders, since in my experience reversal candlesticks like this one often don't provide the pullback one would hope for. So I'm short at 2.030905 and at 2.05041; my stop for both orders is at 2.05995, with my take profit at 1.96389. The rationale for the trade is simple; we're seeing a downward channel on GBPNZD, and now we have a reversal...
Mostly base on support and resistance line. as point by small arrows. as well as "CUP Formation" as point by YELLOW BOX.
The recommend entry for this setup as point by GREEN BOX is,
LONG @ 2.0000
STOP @ 1.9600
TARGET @ 2.2000
** The RED BOX indicated a intermediated support, where the long position should be exit when price move and its weekly...
(See the edit to Gartley #1 in the comment below)
Looking at the 4 hour chart there are two potential Gartley patterns setting up:
Gartley Buy Pattern (purple):
Buy @ 1.9870
Sell @ 1.9770 (SL) (Note the typo in the above chart)
Sell @ 2.0084 (TP)
Risk: 100 Pips
Reward: 210 Pips
After the Gartley Buy, we also see a potential Gartley Sell with the CD leg...
Looking for a Bullish Candle Stick to enter long to 2.1480 on GBPNZD
The trend is up on the weekly and I want to ride this trend to the 1.618 Fib extension.
Small entry now and rolling over in case it pushes lower. Heavier position on a BULLISH candle stick formation.
This is a negative carry trade so take if you wish
Normally I'm not interested in trading against the trend, but I think enough of an opportunity exists in going against the trend here -- and after much observation I think it may improve my trading -- I thought the setup on GBPNZD would be worth taking. We see price is in a bit of a downward channel, but has fallen to support where today's price action is stalling...
English :
Channel up already perform, with target maximum at 2.0950
If this channel break down, maximum correction at 2.0286 as support area
Indonesian :
Channel up sudah terbentuk dengan target maximum dilevel 2.0950
Apabila channel ini break down, maka bearish target hanya pada support area dilevel 2.0286
Analisa minggu lalu :
My usual channel setup with macd divegence , there is a multi day bear trap flush but I will be waiting for price to drop lower to get a better entry. Trading GBPNZd is tricky because of the larger ATR.
I won`t trade this one, because of the Risk reward being too close to 1. Due to my MM rules and the big range I would only be able to shoot for target 1 at 0.382 and with slight frontrunning orders + target adjustments to the real ranges, the actual risk reward probably goes below 1. Therefore I pass on this one, but GBP offers better Cyphers on other pairs...
the usual stuff, i see h1 channel , divergence and a break above previous day high. I am gg for TP level at a f6 level, and a stop below recent low. Just playing off on NZD weakness
This pair found support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last big swing high. This level was also a great bouncing zone in the past. Recently on the first bottom of the pattern, RSI was extremelly oversold.
Action: wait for a double bottom to complete at that level and buy next candle if RSI bullish divergence is in place.
This pair is in an uptrend....we have a breach of support here, but if price wants to touch back to our entry level, we may see some severe long covering, bringing prices at least up to the previous .618 swing. Lets see how it plays out.
