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GDX

The Day Ahead: GDXJ, FXI, EWZ, GDX Premium SellingIt's Friday, and the last trading day of September ... . Here's what's at the top of my IV screener in the exchange-traded fund space: TQQQ, IVR/IV 23.3/64.2% GDXJ, 22.7/36.4% (2.52% yield) FXI, 12.5/33.4% (2.26% yield) EWZ, 11.1/31.9% (10.9% yield) GDX, 26.0/31.5% (2.23% yield) You'll notice that everything is still pretty much in the lower one-quarter of the IV range over the past 52 weeks, but there are a few instruments have popped above 30% 30-day. If you're big on divvies, EWZ stands out, but one potential drawback for some may be that it only distributes biannually in June and December. In the broad market exchange-traded fund space: QQQ, IVR/IV 22.2/22.3% with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 321, paying 3.30 at the mid) IWM, 21.6/20.8%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 162, paying 1.72) SPY, 22.1/17.1%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the January 19th contract (the 385, paying 3.91). You can naturally opt for shorter duration and be more aggressive with your delta, with the trade-off being that you may end up being assigned shares more frequently or have to manage in-the-money's via roll, which is not the funnest way to manage a tested short put, depending how deep in-the-money it is. (I'm talking mostly about what I do strategically in my retirement account, which is short put/acquire/cover or "wheel"). Me Personally ... . I pretty much mechanically put on the shortest duration <16 delta strikes paying around 1% in broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) on a weekly basis, so am going to do that today, assuming I don't already have rungs camped out where I'd want to pitch my tent with a secondary consideration being whether the contract represents a better strike than what I've currently got on. And, in spite of the short term pain I'm experiencing in my attempt to acquire TLT shares at these levels, I'll probably also add in a rung (or two), since I have a maximal buying power that I want to devote to that position, and I'm not there yet. The probable result at the moment is that I will be assigned various lots at various strikes and will have to cover (i.e., sell call against) at various durations, some of which may be quite long-dated with my current highest strike at the 94 (in the November 17th) and the lowest at the 84 (in the December 15th). Naturally, were I to have followed my initial plan as to when I wanted to start picking up shares, (See Post Below), I would be "less red" ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
GDXJ (+ Gold) "Bear Trap" LongGiven USD strength and the sustained pressure of ever-increasing US interest rates, gold has been taking it on the chin. However, we’re getting into buy levels/demand where it may be poised for a near-term recovery. Keep tabs on gold (spot, futures, GLD), but if you see signs of accumulation/trend reversal (use small timeframe charts), consider climbing aboard. FYI, gold futures (GC) have a yet-to-be-filled gap @ 1872.70, so we may drift lower in the immediate-term as the precious metal seeks that level. In the Jr. Miners space, we’re eyeing the 30.57-31.85 demand zone, which formed in November of '22. Protective stops should be placed below the lower bound of the buy zone. Targeting is a bit challenging, but GC futures should be able to rally to ~1910, if not higher. As everything is uncertain in trading, use your judgement. We always take mechanical profits en route to opposing zones, which are used for our target setting, and would highly recommend doing the same given the stress currently being reflected across markets. Just a thought/idea – take it . This is a very aggressive trade given recent price action - be careful! JHart @ LionHart Trading
AMEX:GDXJLong
by JHartCharts
GOLD vs NASDAQ- Which is better ?Over a period of time what is better to trade and invest in a gold futures based ETF or instead the TQQQ , a leveraged and popular ETF tracking the NAS100 and NASDAQ. To analyse, this I put NUGT on the daily chart and superimposed the price action of TQQQ. Starting one year ago, NUGT had the better price action in an upward facing megaphone pattern reflecting high volatility and topped out 70% over the last August start in a double top. After its retracement, it is now positioned perhaps for bullish continuation. TQQQ on the otherhand since a low at the end of 2022 has been in a less volatile trend up topping out at 50% last month but now also with a bit of a pullback and retracement. I conclude that one is not better than the other and that a lot depends on a traders appreciation of market tops. Swing trades in both managed well may give diversity to the trades and allow for profitable outcomes. As a well established gold bug, however, I believe that gold will shine moving forward especially if a BRICS currency is launched with a real gold standard.
AMEX:NUGT
by AwesomeAvani
#Gold UpdateIn the chart above, I highlighted the preferred scenario now in Gold and Silver - flat. Since wave is a clear double zigzag and because Silver invalidated a symmetrical triangle, I would discount the probability of such a triangle in Gold as well. That leaves me with ABC flat, or the whole thing is something else. However, even one scenario with ABC flat may have a great degree of uncertainty as wave C can take the shape of an ending diagonal as indicated below, or an impulse with wave w relabeled as wave (1) - less likely considering complex structures on minute timeframes. It can also be an expanded diagonal which is always a nightmare for ElliottWave traders.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Energeia_Charta
1
GDX heading down... It has been more than 6 months since I looked at GDX proper. Yes, I might have missed the last Gold/GDX rally, but I think that short run is about over... Looking at the weekly chart for GDX, a decisive lowest close since March 2023 is representative of a end of a bull trend, if it is not already obvious enough. The near marubozu type down candle came after a quick dip and a lower high, to get a close near the lower low... which just prevails the downward momentum. Few other notes... 1. a trendline support breakdown this coming week would accentuate the downside bias; 2. the MACD and VolDiv have crossed down and looks determined to crossunder the zero line; 3. any further breakdown bring it into the previous consolidation range. And a break in into the range suggest an extrusion on the other (lower) side of the range; 4. Noted that the USD appear to be gaining strength and the equity markets are about ripe for a retracement. Furthermore, the Gold analysis point to a further slide in Gold prices. Taken together, these 3 critical pillars for GDX are impacted, whcih gives little for the bullish case on GDX. Down it goes... heads up!
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
GDX: Will you make it? 💪This is what we ask GDX regarding our primary scenario. The ETF has shown momentum in both directions: upward and downward. However, we expect the bulls to win this fight, pushing GDX above the resistance at $32.58 and into the turquoise zone between $33.93 and $35.57. There it should finish wave ii in turquoise and turn southward again, heading back below $32.58. However, our secondary scenario shouldn’t be disregarded! There is a 40% chance for the bears to triumph. In that case, we would have to wait for wave alt.(5) in yellow to expand first, which would then include a new low.
AMEX:GDX
by MarketIntel
Elliott Wave Expects Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Buyers expect soonGold Miners ETF (GDX) shows a bullish sequence from 9.26.2022 low favoring further upside. The 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension target from 9.26.2022 low comes at 38.3 – 45.7 area. Rally from there is unfolding as a nest where wave ((1)) ended at 33.34 and wave ((2)) pullback ended at 26.64. Wave ((3)) is in progress as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave ((2)), wave (1) ended at 36.10. Pullback in wave (2) is in progress to correct cycle from 2.24.2023 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Internal of wave (2) is in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 34.38, wave ((b)) ended at 35.19, and wave ((c)) ended at 34.07. This completed wave W in higher degree. Corrective rally in wave X ended at 35.19. Wave Y lower is in progress as a zigzag structure. Down from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 33.60, wave ((b)) ended at 34.63, and wave ((c)) of Y should reach the extreme area at 31.9 – 33.15 blue box area. From this area, the ETF can extend higher in wave (3) or rally in 3 waves at least.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Rolling Waves (up)The bear leg could have probably ended. Confirmation should come next week if it begins to move up sharply as I think. In short term (two weeks) back at 38$ And probably end of May back to 48$. Again GDXJ is on major support and this last week was a tipical shaking move before a large one. The sector is moving up, and up, but remenber always that corrects in a hard way, so trading is the best attitude to make money. I am long. Rolling waves (The naked and famous). www.youtube.com Salud para todos.
AMEX:GDXJ
by JAY_c5velm
2
Wild S&P Nonsensery Who could have guessed markets would rally in an ocean of bad news: Worse than expected CPI Worse than expected PCE Worse than expected Chicago PMI Joblessness Rising Missed Earnings Q2 GDP Contraction in Recession Collapsing Home and Auto Sales Who knew you could miss earnings, lose millions in revenue and your stock price rallies like Microsoft, Boeing, and Google. BestBuy which is a horrible performer in economic downturn also slashed guidance and their stock price rallied 10%. This market has become an utter joke and its pure manipulation due to QE and Buy Backs. At this point, I'm bullish. The more the bad news, the higher the market goes. Targets for S&P - 4209 - 4293 - 4340 If we break the dotted yellow line, we could see this going up towards the 4300 mark to the MA of 4350ish. If WWIII gets announced, I suspect this will rally to well over 7,000 or higher. There is no danger of a double top either at 4200, that is now a myth. Recession is a myth. Americans are actually FLUSHED with cash and prices aren't high enough and things in the US couldn't be better.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by WorldEconomics
2
Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Develops Elliott Wave Bullish SequenceGold Miners ETF (GDX) is close to breaking above the previous peak on 1.25.2023 high (33.34). A break above will open up a bullish sequence from 9.26.2022 low favoring further upside. Near term, cycle from 3.10.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 3.10.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 29.95 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 28.50. Wave 3 is currently ongoing with internal subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 31.99 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 29.63. We can see wave ((i)) and ((ii)) in the 45 minutes chart below. The ETF then extends higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 31.80 and wave (ii) ended at 30.74. Wave (iii) ended at 32.80 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 31.95. Final leg wave (v) of ((iii)) is expected to end soon, then it should pullback in wave ((iv)) before turning higher again in wave ((v)) to complete wave 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 29.63 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
The Gold Odyssey - incoming, but wait...Ended the previous post on The Gold Odyssey (27 Dec 2022) with: So heads up, watch MAy 2023 for Gold prices to rally. Indeed the Down and then Uppish happened. Now, with the monthly chart, we find gold again at the border of the Constipation Box and people are getting all excited about it. I had questions about my views so I started to relook, a tad earlier than I really should (remember May 2023?) So, this chart was actually in response to someone who said that "gold always goes up" in conversation. I did not think it is "always" so I looked into the longer term and viola... The Constipation Boxes. Long term retracements can be 20-50% from peaks, and $300-400 multi-year ranges are observed. Therefore, it is opined that Gold buying should be closer to the bottom of the ranges (eg. 1 Nov 2022) or at least when technical indicators are more aligned and on your bullish side. IF you trace back, I bought Gold on 29 April 2019, two weeks after Trump launched the trade war of sorts. And released all Gold holdings on 9 August 2020. It has been a bit of a wait to get into a similarly bullish situation... The previous month closed nicely bullish, but it appears to be a little too close to the upper range, even though the technical indicators look like a bullish turnabout. Furthermore, the past three months appear reminiscent of a Bearish Sandwich Stack candlestick formation . So, let's just say that this is either 1. an imminent very bullish breakout; or 2. a bull trap to return back within the box for the next launch (possibly from about 18##) Am more inclined with the latter personally, but that's just me and my overall observations. Still maintain as per previous Gold Odyssey conclusion.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader