Soybean short swing trade:
The Bollinger Bands width has narrowed to 2.56% of price which is a level not seen in over a year. A new 6-month or greater low in bandwidth indicates that a volatility squeeze breakout is likely upon us. Similar volatility squeeze situations exist in wheat and corn but they both broke to the downside significantly last week. Wheat...
Wheat has topped, but corrective recovery can be near, as we see it finishing a five-wave cycle from the highs.
Wheat has been in a massive rally at the beginning of 2022 due to war in Ukraine, but now that stocks are trying to stabilize in the second part of 2022, we can see commodities slowing down within deeper corrections.
Wheat has five waves down from the...
COT Data is signaling that Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! ) are ready to pop after a few months of declines and chop
As it currently stands, this is the shortest the Large Speculators have been on Wheat since 2020 where it bottomed at 589'4 to rally all the way as high as 1422'0. By no means do I expect a similar rally to ensure, but this does illustrate how oversold...
2 months of volume dry up during this multi-month wedge basing pattern. Seasonal strength in play.
You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money ~Mark Douglas
Lose like a pro and keep trading, or lose like a novice and quit ~Mark Ritchie
The Andrews Pitchfork takes three (consecutive) swings: ABC, and forms a median line by bisecting BC from A
80% of the time price will return to the median line from the C pivot
Of that 80%: price will reverse at the median line around 30% of the time
IF price reverses at the median line it will reach the upper 1 SD parallel 80% of the time
C U...
Trading Seasonal Market Patterns
Hey traders today I wanted to do a recap of all the Seasonal Market Patterns covered in the series. Also putting it all together for yearly trading opportunities. These Seasonal Market Patterns can be very rewarding l to all of us in our trading if we know when to look for them.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
This week has brought about news on the projected corn yields dropping marginally, which in turn, is pushing this beast into higher territory. As we check out the chart we can see we have a significant golden pocket that will act as the Berlin Wall for corn. Prices below the golden pocket will act as East Berlin, controlled by the soviets during the Cold War....
This is my plan for corn. It is being orientated mainly on seasonality. That means:
I expect the price to drop a bit further or to go sideways during this summer.
According to seasonality, the low should occur around September.
Then the corn price should rise again according to typical seasonal patterns.
IF the FED keeps increasing the interest rates, the...
Nice short can be seen on Wheat.
If you look at the daily timeframe we are in strong downtrend and keep squeezing to the level.
Ukraine started exporting its grain again and first ship already sailed out of the port. One ship won't change much for the world, but fundamentally it's very important news for the market.
That's why we can expect more fall in the...
Similar to our previous idea , we think grains are primed for a move. With soybean meal futures jumping over 10% from last week, some technical set-ups have come into play.
Firstly, the September soybean meal contract shows a 7-month head-and-shoulder pattern which failed. A broken right shoulder suggests bullish strength.
Secondly, the December soybean...
Has the wheat market been forgotten? With wheat prices almost back to early February levels, right before the start of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, markets seemed to have erased all fears of a tightening wheat supply due to the conflict.
The recent selloff in wheat partially stemmed from the market belief that the situation in Ukraine is improving and that...
Double top
Volume profile showing a lot of supply
Seasonal data favors downside until mid September
Plan your trades before executing the trade. How much are you willing to bet? Where will you get out? How will you lock in profits?
Risk: 60 bps
Profit Protection: 3-Day Trailing Stop Rule (Peter Brandt)
You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make...
Wheat (July)
Technicals: Wheat futures are on the verge of a bigger technical breakdown if they cannot get back into positive territory today. The next support level below here doesn’t come in until 925-930, with the more significant pocket not coming in until 897-902.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼****,...
Corn
Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract.
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 140,900 MT for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 50 percent from the...
Wheat
Technicals: Wheat futures came within a stone's throw of 4-star support overnight, we've had that labeled as 1027 1/4-1034 1/4, the low was 1036 1/2. If you're Bullish (we aren't) that is a good spot to consider buying as the risk is fairly well defined. A break and close below that pocket could open the door for a break back below $10.00 and below, with...
