MACRO MONDAY 21 NAHB Housing Market Index The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is compiled from a monthly survey issued by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to U.S. builders in order to measure the current and forward looking sentiment for single-family homes being built or with the prospect of being built in the U.S. In the survey builders rate...
U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales Comparing the Charts When you look at both charts and compare them you can see that between June 2022 and Sept 2023 the decreasing EXISTING home sales negatively correlated with the increase in NEW home sales. This would make surface level sense given the lack of existing homes being available creating a need for new...
U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales data helps us to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic health in the U.S. In simple terms U.S. Existing Home Sales is a seasonally adjusted record of previously owned homes that have been sold in the United States...
Good Morning! It certainly makes sense for #mortgagerates to follow the bond counterparts & go lower The monthly chart shows the RSI weakening as it chugged higher. LONG term, the 3rd chart, we see that rates overcame a STRONG RESISTANCE area & long downtrend, white line. We will soon see if it'll hold that new support, white line. #RealEstate #InterestRate
The chart below is comparison between Schiller Housing Index (barchart) vs Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) balance sheet (linechart). In case you don't know what is FHLB - it's a second to last resort of lender that provides liquidity to US home loan after the FED. Quite recently FHLB is reducing their balance sheet from 1T to around 800B to take out liqudity from...
Much to the chagrin of would-be homebuyers, property prices just keep rising. It seems nothing - not even the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years — can stop the continued climb of home prices. Prices increased once again in July, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index , with 19 out of 20 markets measured showing...
Over the past 18 months, U.S. mortgage rates have soared from 2.9% to 7.6%, their highest since 2001. Will this tremendous increase in mortgage rates cause the U.S. housing market to crash like it did in 2008? On one hand, higher mortgages have led to a steady decrease in the number of new mortgages being issued. In recent weeks, the number of new mortgages has...
Entry: when price clears 117.54 Volume: average or better Target: 129 area Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 113.72 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio. This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this...
ECONOMICS:AUMR A visualization of how house prices react against interest rates rises other than the obvious divergence where rates get cheap and people will spend more. I haven't made any predictions, there are a lot of moving parts in the system at the moment. CPI being a big one on everyone lips, affordability, availability, sustainability, buzz words right...
Looking at two measures of average home price, I've attempted to show one metric for predicting home value increases or decreases, at an average level. I've marked out some major market events. COVID had inflated home values to an unsustainably high level and the market is already correcting for it.
I can't help but wonder if the software company-turned-covid-smash-hit, is maybe somehow exposed to the "banking crisis". Commodities also continue to show weakness. So if housing is a commodity... well who knows...? Anyway, the fed is set to make their "decision" on rates in a couple of days. On that note, I understand the temptation to lean into the idea that...
As mentioned before, so long as DXY has not reach the finishing line, which is the higher time frame upside objective, Risk Off will still be in play. Same narrative, different pair. What happens when DXY finally gets to the upside objective? We sit sideline and study what it wants to do next. There are only 3 possible direction of the market, Bullish / Bearish /...
Housing prices yet to adjust to reality of high interest rates Housing prices can be sticky and take multi-years to adjust If the interest rates persist for few years, we can see the downward pressure for next few year Just to be clear this is a multi year cycle.
Long DRV = 3x Short Real Estate. To me looks primed and ready to go in the mid term to short term. DRV has been heading downwards in this ascending channel, and it has broken to the upside of the channel. Target of that one is around 66.77. Since breaking out of that pattern it has created two smaller bullish patterns, another ascending channel, and a bull flag...
New Housing Data has dropped this week and New home sales later today. It's going as expected. Cycling down and looking sharp. It's a very cyclical market, crests in July-Sept and bottoms around Jan-Mar. About 4-6 months between, once a year.
Mortgage rates are penciling-in to be around 10% on a first mortgage note by Jan/Feb - so everyone with a couple of brain cells to rub together knows what that will do to real estate prices. Some good things will come out of this - like the Gen Z's in the market will get a chance to become homeowners, but in trading terms, this is a very good opportunity. ...
Demand always rules supply. Always. BLUF: Short-term projection = TBD Mid-term projection = bullish Long-term projection = bearish to extremely bearish Traders, I have been quick to point out the tremendous amount of disinflationary data in my videos which leads CPI reports in some cases by as much as 6 months (i.e. -rent). Now, let's take a closer look at the...
Housing market's median home value (for new homes) peaked 2 months ago at $457k. Total growth leading up to that point over the last 59 years, since 1963, was $439.3k. The last two years accounts for a significant portion of all growth, while the last two growth periods displayed more growth than all of which occurred during the 44 year period between 1963...