danny_peanuts

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The chart below is comparison between Schiller Housing Index (barchart) vs Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) balance sheet (linechart). In case you don't know what is FHLB - it's a second to last resort of lender that provides liquidity to US home loan after the FED. Quite recently FHLB is reducing their balance sheet from 1T to around 800B to take out liqudity from...

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It's true that economy is deteriorating, so does the Target (TGT) stock. However, the retailer giant TGT stock has been unreasonably undervalued. The current price is no longer reflecting the strength of growing revenue and profit for the company. Market has been overly pessimistic about the future economy and unrealistically dumping the stock. The valuation shows...

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Nasdaq touches record highs valuation based on our Index Valuation Rainbow which measure index valuation based on Net Liquidity. The similar record high moment that is happened on: - Nov 2007 before 2008 market crash that bottomed out in Mar 2009 - Feb 2020 before 2020 pandemic turmoil that bottomed out in Mar 2020 - Dec 2021 before 2022 market crash that bottomed...

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Essilor Luxottica is a multinational corporation that designs, produces and markets ophthalmic lenses, optical equipment, prescription glasses and sunglasses. The company dominate nearly a thirds of global eyewear industry under it's wings. The company has shown a strong growth of revenue over the past 10 years. However there are some issue on their ability to...

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Several France company had enjoy massive stock gains since beginning of the year while US companies had layoff hundred of thousands tech workers. However this will not last long, as France money supply has been tightened since beginning of the year. CAC40 index shows that current run up in France stock is mainly driven by run up in US stock, which is not make any...

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Fed is increasing their Balance Sheet by $300B quite recently in order to save the economy from banking crisis. The move effectively pumped in additional Net Liquidity to the financial system. As a result the volatility range from Nasdaq index has been moving upward form our previous prediction. The rainbow color indicator is Index Value Rainbow indicator which...

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Quite recently the Fed is adding $300B on it's balance sheet to save the economy from banking crisis. The move is effectively reversing the QT to temporary QE. As a result the amount of money supply circulating on the market is increase as shown on this Index Value Rainbow Indicator. Based on these fact we can expect the S&P500 index price range will be shifted up...

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This year Nasdaq will be going nowhere as it will be traded within a range of around 10500-13000 and probably will end around 10000-12500 by the end of the year. It may test lower point and may touch higher point than the given range, however it won't crash and won't spike either. The reasons for these analysis is based on Index Value Rainbow indicator above. This...

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AAPL stock price is unreasonably expensive. It's traded more than 40x of it's declining book value of only 3.5 dollar per share. Not only the stock price is overpriced, their product are overpriced as well. Also Apple product are outdated compared to many other brand. For example iPhone design is outdated compared to Samsung or even some other Chinese brand and...

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This year S&P500 will be going nowhere as it will be traded within a range of around 3400-4000 and probably will end around 3200-3800 by the end of the year. It may test lower point and may touch higher point than the given range, however it won't crash and won't spike either. The reasons for these analysis is based on Index Value Rainbow indicator above. This...

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3M stock is considered very cheap as it is traded at 3.5x PB ratio. Even though the company has an decreasing future net income, it still has pretty strong revenue. 3M price is moving downward faster than it's strong fundamental. So it left room for potential upward gain, as it is now considered cheap in term of financial valuation. What is needed by the company...

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PayPal (PYPL) stock has come down to the lowest valuation value and come close to record low valuation. PYPL stock is traded near 3x book value. The stock has earn steady stream of income. The price has comedown to the level where it is more make sense to hold it for long term growth. I guess it's a good time to enter the market and hold it now for longer term....

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We have seen massive drop in NVDA stock last year. However the price has not come down the the normal range yet. NVDA is still traded more than 10x of book value. Look like NVDA recent price jump were due to market excitement on AI company. However from financial perspective NVDA book value and earning has been on the decline. We are using Stock Value Rainbow...

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We have seen massive drop in TSLA stock last year. However the price has not come down the the normal range yet. TSLA is still traded more than 10x of book value. I am using Stock Value Rainbow to evaluate stock valuation based on book value, earning, dividend and cash flow. The rainbow color depict the multiples values of all these four factors sum up together....

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Real rate is different from interest rate. Real rate is the difference between interest rate with the inflation. We have been running on negative real rate for a decade plus. This is an accommodative measure by the Fed to make sure the market is still running hot. S&P500 has been running well during this period of time where the interest rate is kept below the...

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The chart shows the Inverted Yield Curve vs S&P500 both on logarithmic scale. The Yield Curve start to invert when US start to raise up interest rate, and Yield Curve start to recover when short term rate is higher than longer term rate. It's not accurate to say that Yield Curve is indicator to recession or market crash. Because there still a 1~3 year periods of...

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There are massive amount of money pumped by the Fed, however these money doesn't circulate in the economy quite yet. So these money basically sitting around in the banks and no one willing to borrow it, spend it. Pandemic totally stop the circulation of money to the lowest level in decades. Comparing the Nasdaq, S&P500, and Dow Jones index to the M2 Money Supply,...

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No, we are not in super bubble, quite the opposite, we are in super burst already! Just look at the Nasdaq, S&P500 and Dow Jones index in comparison to the M1 Money Supply. We already are right on the bottom for decades. Given the amount of the money being pumped to the economy, we will expect high inflation and high stock growth as well. May be there is some...