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Inflation

GBPUSD Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today’s trading session, we’re monitoring GBPUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 1.32500 zone. The pair has recently broken out of its previous downtrend and is now in a correction phase, approaching a key retracement area at 1.32500, which also aligns with strong support on the 4H structure. Fundamentals: All eyes are on the upcoming U.S. CPI release, with markets expecting a slightly softer print. A weaker inflation figure could reinforce dovish expectations for the Fed, potentially putting further pressure on the Dollar and supporting GBPUSD upside into the end of the week. Next Move: Watching price action at 1.32500 for a possible bullish reaction and continuation toward recent highs. Trade safe, Joe
Long
by JoeChampion
12
$JPIRYY -Japan CPI (September/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY September/2025 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - Japan’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.9% in September 2025 from August’s 10-month low of 2.7%. The increase was driven by the first rise in electricity prices in three months (3.2% vs -7.2%) and a rebound in gas costs (1.6% vs -2.7%), after the expiry of temporary government measures launched to offset summer heat. Price growth also persisted across most categories, including housing (1.0% vs 1.1%), clothing (2.5% vs 2.9%), transport (3.0% vs 3.0%), household items (1.0% vs 2.0%), healthcare (1.2% vs 1.3%), recreation (2.0% vs 2.3%), communications (6.7% vs 7.0%), and miscellaneous goods (0.7% vs 1.3%), while education costs fell further (-5.6% vs -5.6%). On the food side, prices increased 6.7% yoy, easing from a 7.2% rise in August and marking the softest gain in four months, largely due to the smallest rise in rice prices in a year (49.2%) amid Tokyo’s continued efforts to contain staple food costs. Core inflation came in at 2.9%, matching consensus and rising from the prior 2.7%.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Fifth straight gain for USDJPY - can bulls clear 153 before CPI?USD/JPY is advancing for a fifth consecutive day after the ruling LDP confirmed Sanae Takaichi as its new leader. Traders are preparing for possible increased fiscal spending, and this is weighing on the yen. However, upward momentum could be tested later this week ahead of the US CPI release on Friday. Momentum indicators remain constructive for now, with the RSI holding above 60 and price action potentially supported by the rising 20-day moving average near 150.40.
by BlackBull Markets
Inflation and Interest Rates: Global Market ImpactIntroduction Inflation and interest rates are two of the most critical economic variables that influence global markets. Their dynamics shape investment decisions, currency valuations, corporate strategies, and overall economic stability. Understanding their interplay is essential not only for policymakers and investors but also for businesses and individuals navigating a highly interconnected global economy. Inflation refers to the sustained rise in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Moderate inflation is considered healthy for economic growth, as it encourages consumption and investment. However, excessive inflation erodes purchasing power, creates uncertainty, and can destabilize economies. Conversely, deflation—a sustained decline in prices—can lead to reduced consumer spending and economic stagnation. Interest rates, typically determined by central banks, are the cost of borrowing money. They are a primary tool used to control inflation and stimulate or restrain economic activity. Lower interest rates tend to encourage borrowing and spending, while higher rates can dampen demand but stabilize prices. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is cyclical: inflation often prompts higher interest rates, and interest rates, in turn, affect inflationary trends. Inflation Dynamics in the Global Economy Global inflation is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors. Key drivers include: Supply and Demand Imbalances: When demand outpaces supply, prices increase. Conversely, excess supply can lead to deflationary pressures. Global supply chain disruptions, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, have historically fueled inflation in multiple sectors simultaneously. Commodity Prices: Oil, gas, metals, and agricultural commodities are highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions and global demand fluctuations. Rising commodity prices often translate into higher production costs, which are passed on to consumers, driving inflation worldwide. Currency Fluctuations: A weaker domestic currency makes imports more expensive, contributing to imported inflation. For example, a depreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies can lead to higher prices of imported goods in the United States, affecting global trade patterns. Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Expansionary fiscal policies, such as increased government spending and tax cuts, can boost demand and trigger inflation if not matched by supply-side measures. Similarly, central bank monetary policies, including quantitative easing, influence money supply and inflation expectations. Global Economic Integration: International trade, foreign investment, and cross-border capital flows link economies. Inflation in one major economy, such as the US or the EU, can ripple through global markets, affecting emerging markets that rely heavily on imports or foreign capital. Interest Rate Mechanisms and Their Global Influence Interest rates serve as the central lever to manage inflation and maintain economic stability. Central banks adjust rates primarily through policy rates, including the federal funds rate in the United States, the repo rate in India, or the European Central Bank's main refinancing rate. The impact of interest rate changes on global markets can be profound: Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Higher interest rates attract foreign investment seeking higher returns, strengthening the domestic currency. Conversely, lower rates can trigger capital outflows and currency depreciation. For instance, rising US interest rates historically strengthen the dollar, creating pressure on emerging market currencies and affecting global trade balances. Investment Decisions: Interest rates influence the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers. High rates discourage corporate expansion and consumer credit, reducing aggregate demand and cooling inflation. Low rates encourage borrowing, stimulate spending, and can boost equity markets. Stock and Bond Markets: Interest rate changes affect asset valuations. Bonds are particularly sensitive; higher rates decrease bond prices, while lower rates increase them. Equity markets may react to rate hikes negatively if borrowing costs rise and profit margins shrink. However, sectors like banking may benefit from higher rates due to increased lending spreads. Debt Sustainability: Both public and private debt levels are sensitive to interest rate movements. High global interest rates can strain heavily indebted countries and corporations, especially in emerging markets, increasing the risk of defaults and financial instability. Inflation Expectations: Central banks often adjust rates preemptively to manage inflation expectations. Market participants closely watch central bank signals, as anticipated rate hikes or cuts influence spending, investment, and speculative behavior across asset classes. Interaction Between Inflation and Interest Rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is intertwined, forming a feedback loop: High Inflation → Higher Interest Rates: When inflation rises, central banks often raise interest rates to curb spending and borrowing, stabilizing prices. This was evident in the early 1980s when the US Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, aggressively raised rates to combat runaway inflation. Low Inflation → Lower Interest Rates: In periods of low inflation or deflation, central banks reduce interest rates to stimulate demand. Japan's prolonged low-interest environment is a prime example of using rates to counter deflationary pressures. Global Spillover Effects: Rate changes in one major economy affect other countries due to global capital mobility. For instance, when the Federal Reserve hikes rates, capital often flows from emerging markets to the US, causing currency depreciation and inflationary pressures abroad. Expectations and Market Psychology: Inflation expectations shape consumer and investor behavior. If markets anticipate higher inflation, bond yields may rise even before central banks act. This self-reinforcing loop can amplify global financial volatility. Impact on Global Financial Markets Inflation and interest rate dynamics have far-reaching implications for financial markets worldwide: Equity Markets: Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and reduce corporate profitability, often leading to equity market corrections. Growth stocks, reliant on future earnings, are particularly sensitive to rate hikes. Conversely, lower rates generally support equity valuations and risk-taking. Fixed Income Markets: Bonds and debt instruments are inversely related to interest rates. Rising rates lead to declining bond prices and higher yields, affecting pension funds, insurance companies, and global investors heavily invested in fixed income. Foreign Exchange Markets: Currency values fluctuate in response to rate differentials and inflation trends. Countries with stable inflation and attractive interest rates see capital inflows, strengthening their currencies, while those with high inflation or low rates experience depreciation. Commodity Markets: Inflation often drives commodity prices higher, particularly in energy, metals, and food sectors. Conversely, rising interest rates can depress commodity demand, as borrowing costs increase and consumption slows. Global Trade and Investment: High inflation and interest rates can make exports less competitive, affecting trade balances. Foreign investors may shift funds to economies with higher real returns, influencing capital availability and investment in emerging markets. Emerging Market Vulnerabilities Emerging markets are particularly sensitive to global inflation and interest rate shifts: Debt Exposure: Many emerging economies rely on external borrowing in foreign currencies. Rising global rates increase debt servicing costs, risking fiscal instability. Capital Outflows: Rate hikes in developed economies can trigger capital flight from emerging markets, weakening currencies and increasing inflation through imported goods. Inflation Management Challenges: Emerging markets often face structural constraints—like supply chain inefficiencies—that make controlling inflation difficult, amplifying the impact of global rate changes. Policy Implications Policymakers face a delicate balancing act: Monetary Policy Coordination: Central banks must balance domestic objectives with global realities. Sudden rate changes in major economies can destabilize smaller economies, prompting coordinated interventions. Inflation Targeting: Many central banks adopt explicit inflation targets to anchor expectations. By clearly communicating policy intentions, they reduce uncertainty in global markets. Fiscal Prudence: Governments must complement monetary policy with sustainable fiscal measures to avoid exacerbating inflation or creating excessive debt burdens. Risk Management for Investors: Global investors monitor inflation and interest rate trends to adjust portfolios, hedge currency risks, and manage exposure to sensitive sectors like real estate, utilities, and commodities. Recent Trends and Lessons The past decade has illustrated the intertwined nature of inflation and interest rates: Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge: COVID-19 disrupted global supply chains, leading to inflation spikes in commodities and consumer goods. Central banks responded with gradual interest rate hikes to stabilize economies. Energy and Geopolitical Shocks: Conflicts, sanctions, and energy price volatility have heightened global inflation risks, prompting rapid monetary responses. Global Monetary Divergence: Different economies adopt varied approaches—some raising rates aggressively, others keeping them low—creating complex capital flow patterns and currency fluctuations. These experiences highlight the importance of anticipating inflationary trends and proactively managing interest rate policies in a globally integrated economy. Conclusion Inflation and interest rates are pivotal forces that shape global economic landscapes. Their influence extends across financial markets, currencies, trade, and investment flows, creating a complex web of interdependencies. Policymakers must navigate the delicate balance between stimulating growth and controlling inflation, while investors and businesses must adapt strategies to manage risk and seize opportunities. In an increasingly interconnected world, no economy operates in isolation. Inflation in one region can ripple through global markets, prompting interest rate adjustments and influencing investment decisions worldwide. The synergy between inflation and interest rates underscores the importance of careful monitoring, timely intervention, and strategic foresight in maintaining financial stability and fostering sustainable growth. Understanding these dynamics equips market participants to anticipate shifts, mitigate risks, and capitalize on opportunities, emphasizing the central role of inflation and interest rates in shaping the global economic narrative.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Gold's Historic Rally: Why It HappenedGold approaches $4,500 per ounce for the first time in history. Up more than 50% in less than a year. Everyone's asking the same question: Is this a historic breakout, or the setup for a massive crash? The answer requires looking at three things: what brought us here, where we are technically, and what could go wrong. PART 1: THE MACRO STORY Gold doesn't just rally because people are "scared." It rallies because of structural shifts in how the world's largest institutions view money, risk, and trust. Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Pace Here's a number that should get your attention: Central banks bought 1,045 tons of gold in 2024. That's the second-highest annual total on record. In 2025, the buying hasn't slowed down. Poland alone has accumulated 67 tons year-to-date. Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and others are following suit. But here's what's really happening: This isn't about inflation hedging. If it were, Western central banks (US, Europe) would be buying too. They're not. Instead, emerging market central banks are diversifying away from the dollar. Why? Because they watched what happened in 2022 when the US froze Russian reserves. When you hold dollar-denominated assets, they can be weaponized. Gold can't be sanctioned. Gold can't be frozen. Central banks don't panic sell on a 5% dip. When they buy, they hold. This creates a structural price floor. Every pullback gets accumulated. What this means: Central bank buying is the foundation of this rally, not a temporary catalyst. The Federal Reserve is Cutting Interest Rates According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a level of certainty that the Fed would cut rates in October 2025, with markets pricing in another cut in December this year. When interest rates fall, something important happens to gold: its "opportunity cost" decreases. Here's the simple version: Gold pays no interest. So when bonds also pay almost nothing (after inflation), holding gold looks pretty reasonable. But when real yields are high, bonds look better and gold looks worse. Right now, the market is pricing in lower real yields ahead. That's bullish for gold. If the Fed doesn't cut as much as the market expects, that changes everything. What this means: Rate cuts fuel the rally. Geopolitical Instability & Currency Debasement Global tensions remain elevated: Middle East instability, US-China friction, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. But that's not the real driver here. The real driver is the loss of faith in government money. Gold is at an all-time high, not just in US dollars. It's also hitting all-time highs in euros, yen, and yuan. This isn't a dollar story. This is a global reassessment of what "money" actually means. Meanwhile, the US national debt is over $35 trillion. Debt-to-GDP is at World War II levels. Other countries (Japan, Europe) are in similar situations, printing money and running massive deficits. When governments print excessively, investors need a hedge. Gold can't be printed. What this means: As long as deficits remain high and geopolitical chaos persists, gold has structural demand that goes beyond cycles. The Bottom Line Three powerful forces are all pushing in the same direction: Central banks structurally accumulating gold (de-dollarization) The Fed cutting rates (lower real yields = gold support) Global monetary instability (currency debasement = safe-haven bid) This combination hasn't existed in most traders' lifetimes. That's why this rally feels different. And why it's lasted this long.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by JinDao_Tai
$CNIRYY -China CPI (September/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY September/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s consumer prices dropped 0.3% yoy in September 2025, steeper than market estimates of a 0.1% decline but slightly less than a 0.4% fall in the previous month. Food prices declined further (-4.4% vs -4.3% in August), recording the strongest contraction since January 2024, amid broad-based falls across categories, with pork prices down further due to abundant supply ahead of the Golden Week holidays, lower production costs, and weak demand. In contrast, non-food inflation quickened (0.7% vs 0.5%), supported by ongoing consumer trade-in schemes to bolster consumer demand, with more increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1%), clothing (1.7% vs 1.8%), healthcare (1.1% vs 0.9%), and education (0.8% vs 1.0%). Meanwhile, transport costs fell at a slower pace (-2.0% vs -2.4%). Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.0% yoy, the highest in 19 months, after August's 0.9% gain. On a monthly basis, the CPI inched up 0.1%, missing forecasts of 0.2% after remaining flat in August.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$USGRES - U.S Gold Reserves (October/2025)ECONOMICS:USGRES October/2025 source: World Gold Council -The U.S Treasury's Gold Reserves ECONOMICS:USGRES have surpassed 1$ Trillion Dollars in Value for the first time in History; more than 90 times what's stated on the Government's Balance Sheet. United States now holds 2.4 Times more Gold than Germany, the second largest Gold holder in the World. Not even the 2020 Pandemic Crisis, 2008 Financial Crisis or Dot.Com Bubble saw TVC:GOLD post a 40% Annual Gain. As The U.S Dollar TVC:DXY continues to lose Purchasing Power, Safe Heaven assets like TVC:GOLD , TVC:SILVER and CRYPTOCAP:BTC continue their Uptrend Resumption .
ECONOMICS:USGRES
by Mr_J__fx
EURUSD: Buying Interest Builds at 1.1610 as Shutdown DragsHey Traders, in today’s trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 1.16100 zone. The pair remains in a broader uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, approaching a strong daily support area at 1.16100 that aligns with the ascending trendline. Structure: The market has been maintaining higher highs and higher lows, with the current retracement offering a potential continuation setup within the bullish structure. Key level in focus: 1.16100 — a critical zone of confluence between daily support and trend structure, where buyers have previously shown strong interest. Fundamentals: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is nearing the 98.800 daily resistance while facing headwinds from the ongoing US government shutdown. Extended fiscal uncertainty and a weakening DXY backdrop strengthen the bullish case for EURUSD. Next move: Watching price reaction at 1.16100 for potential bullish continuation — sustained buying pressure here could pave the way for a move toward recent highs. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
29
No more rate hikes from the BoJ?The USDJPY started the week with a massive gap of 191 pips. This was following news that Sanae Takaichi was on the verge of being the first female Prime Minister of Japan. As a keen advocate of Abenomics (the nickname for the economic policies set out for Japan in 2012 when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came into power for a second time), it is believed that Takaichi could double down on Abenomics of the past. A weaker yen, more government spending, and more inflation are the likely outcomes. And the immediate reaction of a gap to the upside on the USDJPY shows that the market agrees too. Furthermore, Takaichi's advisors have already urged the BoJ to be careful with rate hikes. However, prices are still slightly below the immediate resistance area formed by the previous swing level of 150.75 and the long-term Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% and the price level of 151.67. A break of the resistance area could potentially result in significant upside to the USDJPY. Maybe even retesting the January 2025 high of 159. However, a continual move to the upside is unlikely to be achieve just based on Yen weakness. A recovery of strength in the DXY would be necessary to support the move higher.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
$EUIRYY - Europe CPI (September/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY September/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Euro area consumer price inflation rose to 2.2% in September 2025, up from 2.0% in the previous three months, moving slightly above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% mid-point target, according to preliminary data. The increase was driven mainly by a smaller decline in energy costs, which fell just 0.4% compared with a 2.0% drop in August. Services inflation edged up to 3.2% from 3.1%, while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco rose at a slower 3.0% versus 3.2% previously, reflecting weaker unprocessed food inflation. Non-energy industrial goods inflation remained unchanged at 0.8%. Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco—was stable at 2.3%, holding at its lowest level since January 2022.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Why Did Cheap Lumber Become a National Security Issue?Lumber prices have entered a structurally elevated regime, driven by the convergence of trade policy, industrial capacity constraints, and emerging technological demand. The U.S. administration's imposition of Section 232 tariffs - 10% on softwood lumber and up to 25% on wood products like cabinets - reframes timber as critical infrastructure essential for defense systems, power grids, and transportation networks. This national security designation provides legal durability, preventing a quick reversal through trade negotiations and establishing a permanent price floor. Meanwhile, Canadian producers facing combined duties exceeding 35% are pivoting exports toward Asian and European markets, permanently reducing North American supply by over 3.2 billion board feet annually that domestic mills cannot quickly replace. The domestic industry faces compounding structural deficits that prevent rapid capacity expansion. U.S. sawmill utilization languishes at 64.4% despite demand, constrained not by timber availability but by severe labor shortages—the average logging contractor age exceeds 57, with one-third planning retirement within five years. This workforce crisis forces expensive automation investments while climate-driven wildfires introduce recurring supply shocks. Simultaneously, cybersecurity vulnerabilities in digitized mill operations pose quantifiable risks, with manufacturing ransomware attacks causing an estimated $17 billion in downtime since 2018. These operational constraints compound tariff costs, with new home prices increasing $7,500 to $22,000 before builder markups and financing costs amplify the final impact by nearly 15%. Technological innovation is fundamentally reshaping demand patterns beyond traditional housing cycles. Cross-laminated timber (CLT) markets are growing at 13-15% annually as mass timber products displace steel and concrete in commercial construction, while wood-based nanomaterials enter high-tech applications from transparent glass substitutes to biodegradable electronics. This creates resilient demand for premium-grade wood fiber across diversified industrial sectors. Combined with precision forestry technologies - drones, LiDAR, and advanced logistics software—these innovations both support higher price points and require substantial capital investment that further elevates the cost baseline. The financialization of lumber through CME futures markets amplifies these fundamental pressures, with prices reaching $1,711 per thousand board feet in 2021 and attracting speculative capital that magnifies volatility. Investors must recognize this convergence of geopolitical mandates, chronic supply deficits, cyber-physical risks, and technology-driven demand shifts as establishing a permanently elevated price regime. The era of cheap lumber has definitively come to an end, replaced by a high-cost, high-volatility environment that requires sophisticated supply chain resilience and financial hedging strategies.
CME:LBR1!Long
by UDIS_View
$DXY - Ballads of The Dollar (Q3/Q4 2025/26)TVC:DXY - Ballads of The Dollar TVC:DXY (Q3-Q4/2025) (2026) *** NOTE THAT THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE ! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE PARTAKING ON ANY TRADING ACITVITY BASED SOLEY ON THIS IDEA. *Fundamental Summary What to Watch out for : -The Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has recently retraced from mid-2025 highs as markets price an easing cycle for the Federal Reserve. The Fed began cutting rates in 2025 and market pricing implies additional cuts through late-2025/early-2026. That shift is the main near-term headwind for the dollar. -The broad macro backdrop (slower global growth, easing inflation) supports a gradual AMEX:USD softening on average in 2026 — but risk events (hotter-than-expected inflation, geopolitical flight-to-safety, tariff shocks) could trigger episodic dollar strength. +1 - Bank/Strategy Notes (JPMorgan, market reports) show many Macro desks expecting some AMEX:USD weakness into 2026, but divergence in regional growth and rate paths keeps volatility and range trading likely. +1 - Key current fundamentals and news drivers. Fed policy path / rate cuts: The OECD and market pricing expect more Fed easing (several 25bp cuts across late-2025 into 2026). The magnitude and timing of cuts are the single largest driver for DXY. A faster/larger easing path → weaker TVC:DXY ; A delayed or shallower path → stronger OPOFINANCE:DXY. +1 - U.S. GDP Growth & Labor data: Slowing growth and softer payrolls increase rate-cut expectations; any surprising strength in jobs or inflation would support the dollar. +1 - Cross-Currency Central Bank Policies: The European Central Bank, BoJ and others’ moves matter — if the ECB stops cutting or the BoJ tightens, that reduces one-sided USD weakening. JPMorgan and other large banks note currency pairs (e.g., USD/JPY) will be shaped by central bank divergence. +1 - Global Growth & Inflation (IMF/World Bank): Global growth is projected to remain modest in 2025–26. Falling global inflation reduces the need for other central banks to keep rates high, which can compress rate differentials and weigh on USD upside. +1 - Risk Sentiment(Geopolitics & Tariffs) Episodes of risk-off (safe-haven flows) or trade/tariff headlines can push short-term USD strength even if the long-term trend is softer. +1 - Data-Driven Events Risks: watch out for U.S. CPI, PCE, non-farm payrolls and each FOMC statement/summary of economic projections — these are volatility catalysts that will determine whether the index follows the base case or a tail scenario. Federal Reserve +1 - Cross-Hedging: If you expect the base-case mild USD weakening, consider pairs where dollar weakness shows clearly (EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD) or hedge with short-USD positions sized to risk tolerance. If you fear tail-risk spikes, hold options or tight stop-losses because sudden rallies can be sharp. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : - Charts show a macro Support/Demand zone ~96 (a historically important DXY floor) and a supply/resistance cluster around ~102–105 (multiple reaction highs). That structure matches recent market commentary that the mid-90s acts as a key support and the low-to-mid-100s area is the principal resistance zone. Use these bands to refeer as the primary range framework. - Momentum/MA signals are mixed: short-term pullbacks (to trendline/200-day EMA) are visible on several data summaries; RSI/momentum in mid-2025 has shown episodic bullish runs followed by corrective phases—consistent with a choppy transition from a strong-dollar regime to a more range-bound market. (Dovish / Hawkish tail risks) Forecast — scenario framing and level ranges Below we give a base case and two alternative scenarios As presented expected TVC:DXY ranges (not precise dates) for the remaining part of 2025 (the next calendar quarter(s) from now) and for 2026. -Best case-scnario (highest probability) Fed cuts gradually; TVC:DXY drifts lower but remains range-bound Q4 2025 (near term): TVC:DXY drifts toward 98–101 as markets price in further Fed easing and global risk appetite improves. Occasional pullbacks to the 96–97 demand zone are possible on weak US data. (Full-Year 2026) Average 95–100 TVC:DXY , with the index oscillating between the mid-90s (95–97) on dovish surprises and re-testing ~100–103 on risk events or if other central banks disappoint. This reflects expectations of a lower Fed funds rate by spring 2026 but still persistent inflation risk that keeps cuts measured. - Dovish tail (Fed cuts faster / Global resilience): AMEX:USD Weakens more Q3 & Q4 2025: Quick drop to 95–98 if the Fed signals a multi-cut path and U.S. real rates fall; EUR/JPY strength and reduced safe-haven flows accelerate the move. 2026: TVC:DXY trades 92–97 on average. This is the scenario many currency strategists price as the “USD softening” path if inflation cools quickly and global growth stabilizes. - Hawkish tail (Inflation Reaccelerates or Geopolitical shocks): AMEX:USD reasserts Q3-Q4 2025: A surprise inflation uptick or risk shock pushes markets back to a higher DXY 101–106 zone (testing the resistance cluster shown on your chart at ~102–105). 2026: Intermittent surges to 103–108 on episodic safe-haven flows or delayed Fed easing; average could still be mid-to-high-90s if the hawkish episodes are episodic rather than structural. - Practical Trade / Risk Managment recommendations (tactical) If you’re trading price action on your charts: use the 96 area as a high-conviction support/demand entry (tight risk) and 102–105 as the primary supply zone to consider fading rallies. Your annotated zones and boxed consolidation areas are a good place to set stop levels and scale positions.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
1
Powell cutting rates? But why would he?📉 Powell cutting rates? 100% priced in. Even talk of 1–2% slashes. But why would he? Let’s look at what the media ignores: 🇮🇳 Reports suggest India plans to cut its US Treasury holdings by up to 50% by 2025. That could mean roughly $450B hitting the market. Who’s going to buy that debt? The Fed? They’re already running negative equity — something that would be called insolvency for any private company. Lowering rates would allow the US government (and its billionaire buddies) to borrow even more cheap money — not to fix the economy, but to speculate, pump Bitcoin, and trash the dollar further. Inflation? Even worse. The US economy shows all the symptoms of a recession: layoffs rising, real wages falling, manufacturing shrinking. Official GDP numbers still look positive, but let’s not forget those “revisions” that always come later. Translation: the data is constantly massaged. So what’s the real goal? Probably to juice the housing market. But let’s be honest: US mortgage rates today are just average by historical standards. Russia’s rates are higher, yet their currency and balance sheet look healthier because they don’t live off endless money printing. The core problem is clear: reckless dollar printing to protect billionaire portfolios. And Powell? If he truly had conviction, he wouldn’t touch the rate at all.
SP:SPX
by CryptoNikkoid
15
YOU MAY LIVE TO SEE MANMADE HORRORS BEYOND YOUR COMPREHENSION :)"Beyond Technical Analysis" aka "Wave Analysis > Shingo Waves" Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165 I've also absolutely NAILED _both_ OANDA:XAUUSD and OANDA:XAGUSD breakouts in their entirety (@ see history)
CBOE:SPXLong
by markusrafferty
$JPIRYY -Japan Inflation Rate (August/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY August/2025 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications -Japan's annual inflation rate eased to 2.7% in August 2025 from 3.1% in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since October 2024. Electricity prices fell much steeper (-7.0% vs -0.7% in July) due to government subsidies, and gas prices dropped (-2.7%) after being flat previously. Education costs also continued to drop (-5.6% vs -5.6%). Price growth slowed for household items (2.0% vs 2.5%), healthcare (1.3% vs 1.5%), and recreation (2.3% vs 2.6%). Inflation accelerated for housing (1.1% vs 1.0%), clothing (2.9% vs 2.8%), transport (3.0% vs 2.6%), communications (7.0% vs 6.4%), and miscellaneous goods (1.3% vs 1.2%). On the food side, prices rose 7.2%, easing from July’s five-month peak of 7.6%, driven by the smallest gain in rice prices in eight months at 69.7%, amid Tokyo’s efforts to curb staple food costs. Core inflation also stood at 2.7%, matching market consensus and reaching a nine-month low. Monthly, the CPI edged up 0.1%, holding steady for the third straight month.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBPUSD at make or break level ahead of a split BOEThe BOE faces a pivotal moment as it prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision. With MPC members split between hawkish concerns about stubborn inflation and dovish worries over a weakening job market, expectations are swirling about the path forward. Will the BOE signal a pause after this cut, or will inflation surprises force a more cautious, hawkish stance going into the end of the year? Traders are watching for clues in the updated forecasts, as even a minor shift could spark major volatility in GBP/USD. If the BOE sounds hawkish—maybe they raise their inflation forecasts, or the vote split shows strong resistance to further cuts, or they signal a pause in easing—then GBPUSD might have found a bottom for now. On the flip side, if the BOE puts more emphasis on economic risks, reduces its GDP outlook, or if the vote split shows a strong push for even bigger cuts, then the pound could come under pressure. On the charts, Cable is clinging to 1.3375, with a potential developing head and shoulders pattern threatening a deeper move lower if the neckline breaks. Will the upcoming BOE decision be the make-or-break catalyst for the pound? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate Flat at 3.8% (August/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY August/2025 source: Office for National Statistics - The UK’s annual inflation rate held steady at 3.8% in August 2025, unchanged from July and remaining near the highs last seen in January 2024, in line with expectations. Lower airfares and easing services inflation were offset by higher motor fuel costs and rising prices for restaurants and hotels and food. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate slowed to 3.6% from 3.8%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
British pound hits two-month high, UK job dataThe British pound has started the new trading week in positive territory. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3591, up 0.26% on the day. Earlier, the pound hit a daily high of 1.3620, its highest level since July 10. The UK releases employment data on Tuesday. Claimant counts is expected to jump to 20.3 thousand in August, after a rare decline in July which saw claimant counts decline by 6.2 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.7% for a third straight time, its highest level in four years. Wage growth including bonuses is expected to rise to 4.7%, up from 4.6% in the previous release, which was the lowest pace in nine months. It's a busy week in the UK, with the inflation report on Wednesday and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. The BoE is expected to maintain rates at 4.0% after last month's narrow 5-4 decision to lower rates. Governor Bailey has said rates would move "downwards gradually over time" but hasn't provided any details as to the timing or extent of cuts. The UK may have already entered stagflation, which is a toxic mix of persistently high inflation, weak growth and rising unemployment. This presents a major headache for the BoE, as weak growth supports a rate cut while high inflation could get worse if the BoE reduces rates. The central bank is hesitant to lower rates with inflation close to 4%, but may have to cut before the end of the year if the labor market continues to deteriorate. Tuesday's job report is unlikely to change minds at the BoE, which is expected to hold rates. Still, it could be a factor in the November rate decision. GBPUSD has pushed above resistance at 1.3564 and is testing 1.3589 Above, there is resistance at 1.3605 There is support at 1.3548
by OANDA