– Previous Daily candle closed Bullish at 166.530 breaking above the previous Weekly High. – Buys on close above 166.900 targeting 30min Resistance formed on 16th December 2022 at 167.230, Leaving Runners to the Daily previous Support formed on 14th December 2022 at 167.660. – Sells on close below 166.450 targeting 4h Support at 166.240, Leaving Runners to the...
The UK employment report for March was a mixed bag. The number of unemployed persons jumped by 28,200, after a decline of 18,000 in February and higher than the estimate of -11,800. The unemployment rate nudged higher from 3.7% to 3.8%. These numbers, which point to a slight weakening in the labour market, were overshadowed by a jump in wage growth. Average...
Bank Earnings have been great! Though, The market wasn’t overly thrilled about it. We believe this is due in part to the uncertainty it caused regarding the fed rate path. The bank failure(s) that occurred, and fear of continued failures, cast doubt on the feds ability to continue to raise rates. This elevated markets, in our opinion, in conjunction with...
The S&P500 is diverging from the TLT ETF. We have seen this happen many times over the course of 2021, 2022, 2023. Each time this happened, stocks ended up playing catch up to the downside. As yields and bonds typically react first to the incoming macro data, stocks seem to always get the memo last. Is this time different? Can stocks rally as bonds fall?
The long end yields have been climbing recently and many stock market participants are not recognizing this. The long end yields market may be signaling to us that inflation is going to be entrenched longer than what mainstream experts are calling for. On a technical basis the 30 year has now recaptured all the key daily moving averages and looks primed to head...
Yield Curve Control (YCC) has kept interest rates on ten-year Japanese government bonds within a narrow range close to zero percent since 2016. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) employs YCC to target short-term interest rates at -0.1% and to maintain the 10-year government bond yield within 0.5% above or below zero. In 2016, Japan was grappling with over a decade of...
Slightly wide stop in case of further divergence but good low risk high reward trade on daily charts unless buy signal changes. This support area looks really good now for daily holds and profit taking on the way up.
The dollar has fallen significantly on the back of falling interest rates and the bank crisis Currently sitting at a crucial support going back several years My thesis is a temporary bounce up to the 50SMA on the weekly Bullish engulfing candle on the daily suggesting a temporary reversal The yields on bond have also slightly reversed, hitting a 50SMA on...
gm, called the top on the us10y last year as well. (view post at the bottom of this thread). swinging by to actually adjust my public bias, after a few recent discoveries. --- jerome powell explicitly mentioned in a few of the recent talks that the fed is going to raise the interest rates above 5%, and keep them there for some time. what this tells me, is...
The British pound is poised to post its fifth successive winning week. During this time, the GBP/USD has sparkled, rallying almost 500 points. This week's UK releases have not been as positive as the pound's upswing. GDP was flat in February on a monthly basis, down from 0.4% in January and unable to hit the estimate of 0.1%. Manufacturing Production was also...
As an FYI we're still cautious bull. We did initiate a CBOE:VIX position, by selling puts, as small hedge. We've made clear what the targets on indices were, still think they can be hit. TVC:DJI - 34250 - Major Resistance NASDAQ:NDX - 13400 - Fib level SP:SPX - Major resistance - 4181 But keep in mind; IMF warning global debt levels = DANGEROUS #Fed...
EU has been moving quite violently and was expected with inflation data. We took advantage of the momentum and took 4 buys as price left the 1.0922 key level. We originally took Sells from this level which played out nicely. However, just as we did last week, Price dips hard early in week. Then soars as the week progresses using news as a catalyst for a...
Australia posted a blowout employment report today, giving the Australian dollar a strong boost. The economy created 53,000 new jobs in March, after a downwardly revised 63,600 a month earlier. This crushed the estimate of 20,000 and especially impressed as full-time employment increased by 72,000 (part-time decreased by 19,200). Unemployment was unchanged at...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. CPI m/m printed 0.1% compared to forecasted at 0.2% 2. Fed hikes effects really slowing inflation down 3. USD fell shorting after, signifying the slowing down of inflation at a faster pace than what the market has been pricing in. Technical Confluences 1. Price rejected off resistance at 102.8. 2. Price looks good to form a new higher...
The DXY broke down from the 102 support level (now turned resistance) following the release of the US CPI data overnight. CPI y/y was released at 5% which indicated a consistent slowdown in inflation growth for the US, leading to increasing market expectation that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause on further interest rate hikes (hence the significant move...
Fundamentals Builders FirstSource is in a robust financial situation and very cheaply valued (P/E = 4.6, P/S = 0.6) Since the start of 2011, its revenue has tripled and earnings grew by almost 900%! Even last year when the market was puking, its earning grew by 60% Their profitability is also good with ROE = 55.4% (Industry = 17.9%) and net profit...
ES - We heading to key resistance.... Can we break above 4170 and go towards 4200 areas? Highs: 4170 - Lows: 4100 Pattern - Wedge up side target areas 4200 areas... We just had CPI as we have dollar declining stocks rising higher time will tell... Trade your own trade plan!! Trade Journal
The Eurozone economy continues to recover, but there is plenty of work ahead. The Sentix Investor Confidence index improved to -8.7 in April, above the March read of -11.1 and better than the estimate of -11.7 points. The concerns over an energy crisis in Europe this winter failed to materialize and Germany and the rest of the eurozone came out of the winter...