Australia's CPI data, released yesterday, showcased figures hotter than anticipated. While this may not be 'reaction-worthy' news on its own, the scenario in Australia is worth delving into for several reasons. Inflation Trends Initially, let's consider inflation trends. In most western economies, although inflation remains above central bank targets, the...
The Australian dollar has extended this week's gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6357, up 0.36%. Australia releases inflation on a quarterly basis, which magnifies the significance of each release. We'll get a look at third-quarter inflation on Wednesday, with a market consensus of 1.1% q/q, compared to 0.8% in Q2. Inflation is...
On the afternoon of October 3rd, 2023 something unprecedented happened in the U.S. Treasury market. For the first time ever, bear steepening caused the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield to uninvert. Bear steepening refers to a scenario in which long-duration bond yields rise faster than short-duration bond yields, as bond yields...
From 1st January 1985 the USD lost 64.13% of its purchasing power (according to BLS CPI) ; At the same time the nominal value of SPX index rose by 1594.95% Adjusted for CPI and dollar purchasing power loss, the real rise in the SPX is only 507.40% ; In other words, the SPX index price would have been $1372.41 right now if the USD kept the same value as it had on...
FED did that. And it was not elaborate lie. They made money on it. What is next ?
*** end of INFLATED USD Deflation is coming. Food for thought. Because THE CYCLES EXIST and THEY RHYME.
Most don't realize it but stocks are actually down -20% inflation-adjusted. Remember no matter how high the price goes we are always 100% from zero. As such losing 1/5 of the total value is a horrific loss to investors. "After Nukes, Inflation is the 2nd worst thing that could occur to people." Charlie Munger TRUE! So when you hear your favorite economic...
The British pound is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2142, almost unchanged. The UK inflation report on Wednesday was a stark reminder that inflation remains stubborn and sticky. The Bank of England has raised the benchmark rate to 5.25%, but headline inflation was steady at 6.7% y/y and the core rate ticked lower to...
In order to get the decimal point to the right of a number, I had to multiply AMEX:SPY by 1,000,000,000,000 or 1 Trillion. The price of the market is unchanged since January 1997 with the adjustment. That is an incredible 26 years where prices haven't bean 'inflation as measured by the quantity of money' floating around in the banking system. Nominally, our...
Overview The UK's September inflation figures were released today. Inflation has not come down and continues to be high. This puts the Bank of England (BOE) in a dilemma. The Details UK YOY inflation has been released as 6.70%, the same as the previous month. Despite the BOE's rate hikes, UK inflation remains high and looks stubborn now. This could be the...
The British pound has declined 0.56% against the US dollar on Wednesday, wiping out yesterday's gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2158, down 0.48%. The pound's downswing was driven by a higher-than-expected US retail sales report. Retail sales in the US surprised on the upside with a gain of 3.8% y/y in September. This beat the...
The "real value of the US Gov't Debt" is a different way of looking at our situation through rose-colored glasses, but it is a fair analysis. If we "adjust the debt level for inflation" as measured by the CPI Index (All Urban Consumers Index) from the beginning of the series back in 1966, you will have a line that is grinding SIDEWAYS since October 2020 at a...
The New Zealand dollar has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5919, up 0.55%. It was a miserable week for the News Zealand dollar, which fell 1.74%, its worst weekly performance since August. The driver for today's gains was the New Zealand Services PMI, which rose to 50.7 in September, up from 47. 7 in August....
S&P index is going to test 4170.75$ level this month, it’s now going down to this level. We will wait after testing this level to detect price moves.
Overview UK and Canadian inflation rates will be released next week. These events could provide insight into whether the Bank of England(BOE) and the Bank of Canada(BOC) decide to raise rates further. The Details As things currently stand, the BOE will likely pause rates, and the BOC will raise rates again. This is in line with the current inflation figures....
The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.63, down 0.12%. The US inflation report for September was unchanged at 3.7% y/y, but this was higher than the market estimate of 3.6% y/y and the market reaction sent the US dollar higher against all the major currencies. USD/JPY rose 0.43% on Thursday, hitting a high...
The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.63, down 0.12%. The US inflation report for September was unchanged at 3.7% y/y, but this was higher than the market estimate of 3.6% y/y and the market reaction sent the US dollar higher against all the major currencies. USD/JPY rose 0.43% on Thursday, hitting a high...
The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5943, down 1.27% on the day. The US dollar has strengthened against the major currencies after today's inflation report and the New Zealand dollar has been hit particularly hard. On Friday, New Zealand releases the manufacturing index, which is expected to...