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Inflation

XSP Fed Rate Cut AnalysisCBOE:XSP AMEX:SPY Based on the chart, since the additional liquidity from the 620 range has been collected, before the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 we could see prices dip to fill the FVG (611-617) and if that doesn’t hold the supply zone (604-610). I am bullish on the rate cuts due to the worsening job market and moderate inflation numbers previously reported including those caused by businesses like Walmart choosing to eat the trumps Tariffs. If rates do get cut, I am targeting 650 (1.618 fib extension). If not we can see a sharp move to the downside, returning back to test the Supply Zone.
CBOE:XSPLong
by greg_trades_
RBA lowers rates, Aussie dips lower, US CPI expected to riseThe Australian dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6494, down 0.29% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the cash rate by a quarter-point on Tuesday in a unanimous decision, bringing the cash rate to 3.60%. This is the lowest level since April 2023 and today's cut was the third this year. This time around the RBA didn't shock the markets, unlike the July meeting when the RBA held rates and said it needed to see additional inflation data before lowering rates. The rate statement began by noting that inflation has "fallen substantially" since 2022 and that inflation had fallen back within the target band of 2%-3% in the second quarter. The Board noted that headline inflation was at 2.1% and trimmed mean (a key core CPI gauge) was at 2.7%. The Board said that underlying inflation is expected to continue to ease to the midpoint of the target band and the cash rate should continue to follow a "gradual easing path". This dovish tune in the statement was balanced out by concerns that uncertainty remains in both the global economy and at home. The Board said it would remain cautious and would remain focused on price stabililty and employment. At a post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock said that the growth and inflation forecasts support further rate cuts but "there is still a lot of uncertainty" and future rate decisions would be data-dependent. US inflation expected to rise to 2.8% The US releases the July inflation report later today. Inflation is expected to nudge higher to 2.8% y/y, up from 2.7% y/y in June. This would mark a third straight acceleration and the highest inflation level since February. Core CPI is also expected to accelerate to 3.0%, up from 2.9% Monthly, CPI is projected to ease to 0.2% from 0.3%. Core CPI is projected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%. Today's inflation data could shift market expectations for the September Fed meeting but the decision will very likely be rate cut, with a current likelihood of 84%, according to FedWatch's CME.
by OANDA
Pennant Breakout, EUR vs USD, Late July Highs Next?Price on FX:EURUSD has made a Pennant Breakout to the upside! Next we will want to see a Retest to the Breakout of the Pattern and if successful, should be the Support Bulls need to take Price Higher! The Late July Highs, last visited on July 27th @ 1.1770, will be the Price Target if the Breakout is Validated and Retest is Successful. This week there is some heavy hitting news for the USD with CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Thursday and Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing (being forecast more bearish of all news) on Friday.
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
Inflation Countdown: BTC and ETH at Key Levels Ahead of CPIMarket focus is quickly turning to the US CPI report coming up this week. A higher-than-expected figure might weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, keeping the former in rangebound mode and the latter fighting for a handle above $4,000. Ethereum is consolidating just above the $4,150 level after a sharp rally. The recent higher highs and higher lows keep the short-term bias bullish, but a sustained move below $4,100 could indicate shifting momentum. Bitcoin is testing resistance at $119,000 after a solid recovery from below $113,000. The price remains inside a broader range between $116,000 and $123,000, with repeated upper wicks signalling sellers defending the top of the range.
BLACKBULL:ETHUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
RBA poised to lower rates, Australian dollar in holding patternThe Australian dollar is coming off a strong week, gaining almost 1% against the US dollar. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is almost unchanged at 0.6521. The Reserve Bank of Australia is virtually certain to lower rates at Tuesday's meeting. This would be the third cut of 2025 and would lower the cash rate to 3.60%, its lowest level since April 2023. This indicates a gradual, cautious approach to lowering rates. The RBA had a trick up its sleeve in July, when it opted to hold rates. The markets had widely expected a rate cut but the RBA said that it wanted to see additional inflation data before delivering a rate cut. Inflation has been cooling, as CPI for the second quarter nudged down to 2.1% y/y, down from 2.4% in Q1. This strongly supports the case for a rate cut as CPI has fallen close to the lower band of the RBA's 2%-3% target. Core inflation has also been easing lower. As well, the labor market is showing signs of cooling and the central bank wants to avoid a sharp deterioration in employment data. With today's move practically a given, investors will be looking for hints about further cuts. Governor Bullock has sounded cautious, noting that inflation remains sticky and there is continuing uncertainty over US tariffs. Australian goods face a low 10% US tariff, which is not expected to have a significant impact on the economy. However, US tariffs on China, which is Australia's largest trading partner, could weigh on economic growth. In the US, it's a very light calendar with no tier-1 events. On Tuesday, the US releases CPI for July, which is expected to tick up to 2.8% from 2.7% in June. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6414. Below, there is support at 0.6506 There is resistance at 0.6529 and 0.6536
by OANDA
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 11–15, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 11–15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Inflation Double-Header: CPI Tue + PPI Thu set the tone for AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX , rates, TVC:DXY , $TLT. 🏦 Fed Speaker Blitz: Barkin, Schmid, Goolsbee, Bostic—watch headlines for rate-path hints. 🛍️ Consumer Pulse Friday: Retail Sales + Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization = read on demand & output. 🧭 Keep it tight: Focus on CPI, PPI, Claims, Retail Sales, IP/CapU. Everything else is background noise. 📊 Key Data Releases (most impactful only) 📊 📅 Tue, Aug 12 • CPI (July) — Headline & Core (8:30 AM ET) • Fed: Barkin & Schmid speak (10:00 AM ET) 📅 Thu, Aug 14 • Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) • PPI (July) — Headline & Core (8:30 AM ET) • Fed: Barkin (2:00 PM ET) 📅 Fri, Aug 15 • Retail Sales (July) — Headline & Ex-Autos (8:30 AM ET) • Industrial Production (July) (9:15 AM ET) • Capacity Utilization (July) (9:15 AM ET) • Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Aug) (10:00 AM ET) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #CPI #PPI #retailsales #Fed #SPY #SPX
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Tuesday’s triple risk: Tariffs, RBA rate cut, and U.S. inflationTraders face a busy Tuesday with developments on U.S. China trade talks, a RBA policy decision, and the latest U.S. inflation data. U.S. China tariff deadline – Tuesday The current truce between the U.S. and China is set to expire on 12 August, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicating it will likely be extended by 90 days. China may also face an additional 25% tariff on Russian oil imports, like measures already applied to India. RBA announcement – Tuesday The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut rates, with a Reuters poll showing all 40 surveyed economists anticipating a 25bp reduction to 3.60%. The broader market is pricing a 98% probability of that outcome and a 2% chance of a larger 50bp cut. U.S. CPI – Tuesday Headline U.S. CPI for July is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month taking the annual rate to 2.8% from 2.7%. Wells Fargo notes that the figures may show further signs of higher tariffs feeding into consumer prices.
by BlackBull_Markets
Trump’s Fed pick signals potential softer dollar US President Trump has named CEA Chair Stephen Miran as the temporary replacement for Fed Board member Adriana Kugler, serving until at least January 31, 2026. As expected, Miran is closely aligned with Trump’s policy views, including support for tariffs and scepticism over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Notably, Miran is a critic of the U.S. dollar’s current strength and is the author of the “Mar-A-Lago Accord” — a proposal to deliberately weaken the dollar to address the U.S. current account deficit. The White House is also searching for a new Fed chair. If markets believe the next chair will prioritise Trump’s agenda over an independent monetary policy (a safe assumption at this stage) investors may demand higher yields on U.S. debt to hedge inflation risk. That could add volatility to US pairs.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/USD edges higher, NZ inflation expectations inch lowerThe New Zealand dollar showed some strong gains earlier but couldn't consolidate. After rising as much as 0.50%, NZD/USD has retracted and is trading at 0.5939 in the North American session, up 0.17% on the day. New Zealand's inflation expectations for the next two years ticked lower in the third quarter, falling to 2.28% from 2.29% in Q2. As well, one-year inflation expecations dipped to 2.37% from 2.41%. These are not large decreases by any stretch, but the updated figures indicate that businesses expect inflation to ease slightly. The readings are within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation target band of 1%-3%. Actual inflation rose by 2.7% in the second quarter, up from 2.5% in Q1. Again, this level is within the central bank's target band, where it has remained for a fourth consecutive quarter. Inflation may be a bit high for the Reserve Bank's liking, but it has made clear that it plans to continue lowering rates. The RBNZ held the benchmark rate at 3.25% last month but this was a "dovish hold" as the central bank said it expected to loosen policy if medium-term inflation continued to ease as expected. NZD/USD tested resistance at 0.5950. Next, there is resistance at 0.5971 0.5921 and 0.5900 are providing support
by OANDA
New Zealand's unemployment rate rises to 4½ high, Kiwi pushes hiThe New Zealand dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5923, up 0.37% on the day. The kiwi has been under pressure, falling 3.4% against the US dollar in July. New Zealand's employment report for Q2 was pretty much as expected, but the news wasn't good. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.1% in Q1, below the consensus of 5.3%. This marked the highest unemployment rate since Q3 2020. Employment Change declined by 0.1%, down from a 0.1% gain in Q1 and matching the consensus. This was the third decline in four quarters. The weak figures point to growing slack in the labor market as the economy continues to struggle. Global trade tensions remain high and New Zealand's export-reliant economy has taken a hit from softer global demand. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be paying close attention to the weak job numbers, which support a rate cut in order to provide a boost to the economy. The RBNZ maintained rates in July after lowering rates at six consecutive meetings. The conditions for a rate cut at the Aug. 20 meeting seem ripe and the markets have priced in a quarter-point reduction at around 85%. We'll get an updated look at the inflation picture on Thursday. Inflation Expectations rose to 2.3% in the second quarter, the highest in a year. This is the final tier-1 release prior to the August rate meeting. Three FOMC members will speak later today and investors will be hoping for some insights regarding the Federal Reserve's rate plans. The Fed hasn't lowered rates since December but is widely expected to hit the rate trigger at the September meeting.
by OANDA
Australia inflation gauge hits 20-month high, Aussie gains grounThe Australian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6483 up 0.22% on the day. The US dollar made inroads last week against all the major currencies except the yen and gained 1.5% against the Australian dollar. Australia's Melbourne Institute inflation guage soared 0.9% m/m in July, up sharply from 0.1% in June and marking the highest rise since Dec. 2023. The MI gauge, which provides a monthly guide to consumer inflation (official CPI is published quarterly), will no doubt raise concerns at the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has been cautious about cutting rates due to inflation worries. Last week, CPI for the second quarter eased to 1.9%, down from 2.2% in Q1 and just below the central bank's target of 2%-3%. This cements a rate cut at the Aug. 12 meeting, after the RBA shocked the markets last month when it held rates. The markets had widely priced in a rate cut but the RBA defended its non-move, saying it wanted to see additional inflation data. The week ended with a softer-than-expected US employment report. Nonfarm payrolls for July rose by only 73 thousand, missing the market estimate of 110 thousand. Adding to the bad news, the June and May reports were both revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2%, up from 4.1%. The weak July reading and the downward revisions indicate that the labor market may be cooling more quickly than initially anticipated. The weak numbers support the case for the Fed to lower interest rates at the next rate meeting in September. The likelihood of a cut has climbed to 75%, compared to 63% on Thursday. The soft jobs report should serve as a wake-up call regarding the effect of US tariffs on the economy, as the employment picture is worse than previously thought.
by OANDA
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (July/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY July/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Eurozone consumer price inflation held steady at 2.0% year-on-year in July 2025, unchanged from June but slightly above market expectations of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates. This marks the second consecutive month that inflation has aligned with the European Central Bank’s official target. A slowdown in services inflation (3.1% vs 3.3% in June) helped offset faster price increases in food, alcohol & tobacco (3.3% vs 3.1%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.8% vs 0.5%). Energy prices continued to decline, falling by 2.5% following a 2.6% drop in June. Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco—remained unchanged at 2.3%, its lowest level since January 2022.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$USPCEPIMC -U.S PCE Prices Rise (June/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC June/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - The US PCE price index rose by 0.3% mom in June, the largest increase in four months, and in line with expectations, led by prices for goods. The core PCE index also went up 0.3%, aligning with forecasts. However, both the headline and core annual inflation rates topped forecasts, reaching 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, both personal income and spending edged up 0.3%.
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
by Mr_J__fx
$USINTR -Feds Leaves Rates Steady (July/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR July/2025 source: Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth straight meeting, defying President Trump’s demands for cuts even after positive GDP growth . Still, two governors dissented in favor of a cut—the first such dual dissent since 1993. Policymakers observed that, fluctuations in net exports continue to influence the data, and recent indicators point to a moderation in economic activity during the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, while Inflation somewhat elevated.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Australian inflation lower than forecast, Fed up nextThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6500, down 0.15% on the day. Australia's inflation rate for the second quarter came in lower than expected. Headline CPI dropped to 2.1% y/y, down from 2.4% in the prior two quarters and falling to its lowest level since Q1 2021. This was just below the market estimate of 2.2%. Quarterly, CPI rose 0.7% in Q2, down from 0.9% in Q1 and below the market estimate of 0.8%. Services inflation continued to decline and fell to 3.3% from 3.7%. The drop in CPI was driven by a sharp drop in automotive fuel costs. The RBA's key gauge for core CPI, the trimmed mean, slowed to 2.7% from 2.9%, matching the market forecast. This was the lowest level since Q4 2021. The positive inflation report is a reassuring sign that inflation is under control and should cement a rate cut at the Aug. 12 meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia stunned the markets earlier this month when it held rates, as a quarter-point cut had been all but certain. Bank policymakers said at that meeting that they wanted to wait for more inflation data to make sure that inflation was contained and today's inflation report should reassure even the hawkish members that a rate cut is the right move at the August meeting. The Federal Reserve meets today and is widely expected to maintain the benchmark rate for a fifth straight meeting. Investors will be looking for clues regarding the September meeting, as the markets have priced in a rate cut at 63%, according to CME's FedWatch.
by OANDA
$GLD / $GC – Gold Poised for Breakout as Hard Assets FlexAMEX:GLD / SET:GC – Gold Poised for Breakout as Hard Assets Flex Gold is setting up for a major breakout, and the broader market is finally catching on to the hard asset trade. Whether it’s inflation ticking up or the never-ending government deficit spending, the market is starting to signal something big. 🔹 Macro Tailwinds: Inflation pressures + record deficit = a perfect storm for gold. The dollar is under pressure — metals ( AMEX:GLD , AMEX:SLV , SET:GC ) are responding. This theme isn’t going away anytime soon. 🔹 Technical Setup: AMEX:GLD and SET:GC (Gold Futures) are coiled tightly just under breakout levels. Volume is steady, and momentum is building under the surface. A move through current resistance could send this entire trade into overdrive. 🔹 My Positioning: 1️⃣ Options: Long AMEX:GLD calls with 1-month expiration — slow mover, but clean structure. 2️⃣ Futures: Trading SET:GC contracts on the breakout side. 3️⃣ Silver Exposure: Still holding partials in AMEX:SLV — it’s following gold’s lead but with more juice. Why I’m Focused Here: This is not a one-day theme — hard assets are becoming a rotation trade. If this confirms, we could see multi-week upside in precious metals. It’s rare to get clean technicals that align this well with macro.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by kunal00
Japan's core CPI cools as expectedThe Japanese yen is showing little movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.69, up 0.06% on the day. On the data calendar, Japan's inflation rate eased in June. It's a light day in the US, highlighted by UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Inflation in Japan fell in June as expected and the yen is showing little movement today. Headline CPI dropped to 3.3% y/y from 3.5% in May, matching the consensus. This was the lowest level since Nov. 2024, as prices for electricity and gasoline rose more slowly in June. FoodThe inflation numbers come just before an election for Japan's Upper House of Parliament on Sunday. The ruling coalition is in danger of losing its majority, and if that happens, it will likely impact yields and the yen next week. The Bank of Japan meets next on July 31 and is expected to continue its wait-and-see approach and hold interest rates. The BoJ hiked rates in January but hopes for a series of rate increases were dashed after US President Trump promised and delivered tariffs on many US trading partners, including Japan. Trade talks between the US and Japan have bogged down and Trump has threatened to hit Japan with 25% tariffs if an agreement isn't reached by Aug. 1. In this uncertain environment, the BoJ isn't likely to raise interest rates. prices were up 7.2%, the most since March, as rice prices soared 100%. Monthly, CPI eased to 0.1%, down from 0.3% in May. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, fell to 3.3% from 3.7%, in line with the consensus and the lowest pace since March. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 148.66. Above, there is resistance at 1.4882 148.44 and 148.28 are the next support levels
by OANDA
$GBIRYY - U.K Inflation Rises to a 2024 High (June/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY June/2025 source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK rose to 3.6% in June, the highest since January 2024, up from 3.4% in May and above expectations that it would remain unchanged. The main upward pressure came from transport prices, mostly motor fuel costs, airfares, rail fares and maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment. On the other hand, services inflation remained steady at 4.7%. Meanwhile, core inflation also accelerated, with the annual rate reaching 3.7%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
UK inflation heats up, Pound shrugsThe British pound has stabilized on Wednesday and is trading at 1.3389 in the European session, up 0.07% on the day. This follows a four-day losing streak in which GBP/USD dropped 1.5%. On Tuesday, the pound fell as low as 1.3378, its lowest level since June 23. Today's UK inflation report brought news that the Bank of England would have preferred not to hear. UK inflation in June jumped to 3.6% y/y, up from 3.4% in May and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the highest level since January 2024 and is a stark reminder that inflation is far from being beaten. The main drivers of inflation were higher food and transport prices. Services inflation, which has been persistently high, remained steady at 4.7%. Monthly, CPI ticked up to 0.3% from 0.2%, above the market estimate of 0.2%. It was a similar story for core CPI, which rose to 3.7% y/y from 3.5% in May, above the market estimate of 3.5%. Monthly, core CPI climbed 0.4%, above 0.2% which was also the market estimate. The hot inflation report will make it more difficult for the BoE to lower interest rates and the money markets have responded by paring expectations of further rate cuts. Still, expectations are that the BoE will cut rates at the August 7 meeting, with a probability of around 80%, despite today’s higher-than-expected inflation numbers. The UK releases wage growth on Thursday, which is the final tier-1 event prior to the August meeting. Wage growth has been trending lower in recent months and if that continues in the May reading, that could cement an August rate cut.
by OANDA