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GBP/JPY: An Unusual Ascent Amid Global RiskThe GBP/JPY pair currently sits near 204.00, retracing from a six-week high. This movement reflects a complex tug-of-war between the Pound Sterling (GBP) , which faces uncertainty from upcoming UK inflation data, and an uncharacteristically weak Japanese Yen (JPY) . We analyze the diverse forces driving this pair's recent unusual ascent, where the JPY fails to act as its traditional safe-haven counterweight. Macroeconomics & Monetary Policy Divergence The immediate market focus centers on divergent monetary policy expectations. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces pressure to align its policies with fiscal objectives, potentially limiting future rate hikes. This uncertainty, coupled with the new government's plan for large economic stimulus and lower taxes, dampens JPY demand. Conversely, the Bank of England (BoE) awaits crucial UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show headline inflation moderating to *b]3.6% annually. This data will significantly influence the BoE's rate hike outlook, injecting caution into GBP trading ahead of the 07:00 GMT release. Geopolitics & Geostrategy: The Taiwan Factor A key reason for the JPY's recent underperformance is a shift in geopolitical sentiment toward Japan. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi adopted a firmer pro-Taiwan stance than her predecessors, triggering unease in Beijing. This heightened political tension weighs heavily on sentiment surrounding Japan, effectively diluting the Yen's traditional safe-haven magnetism against global risk. This specific anxiety overshadows the Yen's long-term status as the principal global currency counterweight. Fiscal Policy & Economic Outlook Concerns about Japan's fiscal health are also eroding the JPY's strength. The government is preparing a large economic stimulus package to boost growth. This spending raises concerns among investors worried about Japan's already stretched finances . These fiscal anxieties add direct pressure to the currency, making the JPY less attractive despite the current risk-off environment observed in global equity markets. This fiscal trajectory contrasts with the Bank of Japan's potential monetary hesitancy. Industry Trends & Corporate Vulnerabilities Corporate Japan's deep integration with the US technology sector presents another vulnerability. Many major Japanese companies maintain significant earnings exposure to the health and performance of the US tech boom. Corporate vulnerabilities tied to the US technology cycle are eroding the JPY’s traditional safe-haven appeal. Consequently, negative headlines or wobbles on Wall Street disproportionately mute the Yen's response, preventing it from rallying when global equities come under pressure. Management, Innovation, and Patent Analysis - While not an immediate driver, Japan's long-term currency strength relies on its competitive edge in high-tech and science . The current vulnerability suggests that the market is discounting the perceived innovation premium of corporate Japan. Traders see a connection between the dependency on US tech and a potentially lagging pace in domestic, cutting-edge patent analysis and independent industry leadership. Weak corporate sentiment reflects doubts about resilience and adaptive business models under new management. Conclusion for Strategic Hedging The Yen's uncharacteristic weakness creates a unique setup. The currency is behaving out of character relative to the worsening risk backdrop. This anomaly presents tactical opportunities for hedgers with exposure to the Yen. However, this phase is likely temporary. Japan’s enormous net international investment position and its central role in funding global carry trades mean the Yen's safe-haven DNA remains intact. If global markets experience a sharper, sustained downturn, expect the traditional gravitational pull into the JPY to reassert itself.
Long
by the5erstrading
Can The Yen Fight Inflation While Rates Stay Low?The AUD/JPY currency pair's surge above 101.00 is a direct result of two opposite forces. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strong because inflation is unexpectedly high, forcing the RBA to keep its interest rate at 3.60%. This high rate attracts global investment, as traders move money to Australia for better returns. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak because the BoJ maintains an extremely low interest rate, near zero, to boost its economy. This wide gap in rates makes the AUD/JPY a favorite for the "Carry Trade," where investors earn the difference, pushing the pair higher. Beyond just interest rates, geopolitics is playing a crucial role. The recent US-China trade deal, which saw a truce on certain tariffs and export controls on rare earth minerals, strongly benefits the commodity-linked AUD. Australia is a major exporter of these minerals. This trade calm reduces global risk and boosts demand for Australian goods. Conversely, the JPY suffers from political choices, as Japan's new government plans aggressive spending. This combination of low rates and high spending ensures the JPY remains weak, reinforcing the strong case for continued AUD/JPY strength.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
Can the Euro Break Free From the Dollar's Grip?The EUR/USD currency pair is extending a modest winning streak, nearing 1.1670 as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. This marks the fifth consecutive day of gains for the pair, largely fueled by a cooling USD sentiment due to the prolonged US government shutdown and a cautiously dovish outlook from the Fed. Despite this short-term momentum, a sustained rally remains elusive. The pair is currently searching for a stronger catalyst, with the upcoming monetary policy meetings from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to provide the necessary spark for clearer directional movement. Immediate resistance levels are flagged around 1.1728 and 1.1778, while initial support rests at the October low of 1.1542. The underlying technical picture suggests that while the broader positive trend holds above the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), momentum is weak. Key indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting just over 47 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 15, imply that the current upward move lacks conviction and leaves the door open for potential renewed losses. Investors are keenly focused on a potential shift in the narrative. A dovish surprise from the Fed, a reduction in the appetite for US assets, or a more encouraging stance from the ECB could provide the requisite lift for the Euro. Furthermore, any genuine progress in easing US-China trade tensions would also likely weigh on the USD and benefit the currency pair. The fundamental backdrop is characterized by the Washington stalemate and a cautious approach from both major central banks. The nearly month-long US government shutdown continues to erode business confidence and negatively impact growth expectations, contributing to the USD's drift lower. Meanwhile, the Fed is largely anticipated to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut at its upcoming meeting, maintaining a flexible, "meeting by meeting" policy approach as it balances softer job data against lingering inflation. Across the Atlantic, the ECB is opting to stay patient, with President Christine Lagarde expressing confidence that policy is "in a good place" and future adjustments will be entirely data-dependent, a signal that the European easing cycle may be largely concluded, at least for now.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
BTC – Between Structure and Supply!BTC has been trading inside a clean ascending channel 📈, respecting both support and resistance. After breaking above the $113,000 structure zone, price pushed higher but is now approaching a potential retest area. 🟠 Structure zone ($113K – $114K): Could act as support on a pullback. 🟢 Channel support: Aligns perfectly with structure for confluence. 🔵 Supply zone ($122K – $124K): Next major resistance where sellers may step in. As long as BTC holds above structure, bulls 🐂 remain in control, with the next upside target sitting around the supply zone. Patience ⏳ is key — waiting for a clean retest could set up the next continuation trade. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entry, risk, and management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
NAS100 - Stock market awaits Federal Reserve meeting!The indicator is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the drawn upward trajectory is maintained, I can expect the future to continue as it has in the past. In case of a valid breakdown, its downward path is to the specified range, which can be approached with a reward for buying. Last week’s economic data painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. On the one hand, new jobless claims rose to 263,000, above the market forecast of 235,000, signaling labor market weakness. On the other hand, the August inflation report came in hotter than expected, though most of the increase stemmed from housing costs rather than tariff pressures. Rents rose 0.34%, marking the fastest gain since December 2024, while shelter costs climbed 0.39%, the sharpest jump since January 2025. Still, real-time housing indicators suggest that prices are adjusting, which will likely be reflected in official data in the coming months. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell below 4% for the first time since April—a sign that markets are reacting more to labor market weakness and the prospect of Fed rate cuts than to inflation concerns. CIBC, analyzing the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, stated that while the data came in slightly above expectations, it was not strong enough to dissuade the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from delivering a 25-basis-point cut next week. Ali Jafari, an economist at the bank, wrote: “There was little in the report to prevent a September rate cut. More importantly, the labor market needs support, and a weaker jobs market implies softer demand-side inflationary pressures ahead.” On a yearly basis, core inflation held steady at 3.1%, while headline inflation rose two-tenths to 2.9%, both in line with forecasts. More troubling, however, are signs that price increases are spreading into new sectors. The report noted: “Tariff pass-through effects intensified this month, with core goods prices rising at the fastest pace since broad tariffs were imposed. Today’s report also showed the first notable increase in new car prices, suggesting that tariff impacts may now be extending to higher-ticket items, though overall car price gains remain modest.” CIBC expects the Fed to cut rates in September and October, pause afterward, and then deliver two additional cuts in the first half of next year. The bank added: “The overall U.S. inflation picture remains notably above target, but the Fed is willing to tolerate this for now, given growing concerns about a weakening economy and a labor market showing signs of fatigue.” Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump once again criticized the Fed in an interview with Fox News, saying the central bank “always acts late on interest rates.” He added: “We have the best stock market in history. Inflation has come down, equities are climbing, so rates should be lower.” These comments come as the Fed is widely expected to cut rates at Wednesday’s meeting. While such a move could reduce borrowing costs in the short term, analysts caution that lower short-term rates do not necessarily translate into lower long-term yields. Morgan Stanley now projects that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining meetings this year—an upgrade from earlier forecasts of only September and December cuts. The bank also expects three additional 25-basis-point cuts in January, April, and July of 2026. At the same time, Standard Chartered has revised its outlook and now anticipates a 50-basis-point cut in September—double its previous forecast. The shift followed weak August jobs data showing employment growth had slowed sharply and unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since late 2020. The bank described labor market conditions as “dramatic,” noting that in just six weeks the market shifted from “strong” to “weak.” It characterized the larger cut as a form of “catch-up” to align monetary policy with economic realities. This week is set to be pivotal for global markets, with a series of central bank decisions and key economic releases. Monday will see the Empire State manufacturing index, followed by Tuesday’s August retail sales report. On Wednesday, housing starts and building permits will be released, along with the Bank of Canada’s rate decision. The highlight of the week, however, will be the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell’s press conference. On Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its policy decision, followed by U.S. jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. The busy week will conclude Friday with the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
Stock Markets Recover Amid Inflation SlowdownAfter months of instability and concerns about high inflation, stock markets have started showing signs of recovery. The slowdown in consumer price growth has become a positive signal for investors who are cautiously but confidently returning to the market. At Nebulain, we closely monitor macroeconomic trends and note that the current rebound is not just a temporary break, but potentially the start of a new investment cycle. Inflation Slows — Markets Respond According to the latest data, inflation rates in key economies, including the U.S. and the EU, have begun to decline. Central banks, while remaining cautious, are softening their rhetoric and in some cases even pausing further interest rate hikes. This is creating a more favorable environment for businesses, expanding investment opportunities, and contributing to stock growth. Markets have already responded: indexes such as the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DAX are showing steady gains, especially in the tech and financial sectors. Investors view the current signals as an indication that the global economy might avoid a deep recession and adapt to the new conditions without losing growth potential. Nebulain's Perspective: Opportunities Ahead At Nebulain, we view the current market situation as a window of opportunity. The restoration of investor confidence, increased liquidity, and easing inflationary pressure create an ideal entry point for medium- and long-term investments. We recommend focusing on the following sectors: Technology, where the growth of AI, cloud computing, and automation continues to attract capital. Green energy, supported by both consumer demand and government policy. Financial services, especially in the areas of digital payments and fintech innovation. Nebulain’s Investment Approach Our approach to asset management remains balanced and based on in-depth analytical research. Rather than simply reacting to short-term fluctuations, we build strategies grounded in fundamental analysis and macroeconomic forecasting. With inflation easing and expectations of renewed growth rising, we maintain a diversified portfolio focused on resilience and long-term performance. Looking Ahead Stock markets — like the global economy as a whole — are undergoing a period of realignment. The slowdown in inflation is a major indicator, but not the only factor influencing the investment landscape. At Nebulain, we believe that a combination of technological advancement, adaptive central bank policies, and steady demand for capital provides a foundation for sustained growth. We are ready to help our clients leverage current market trends and build a financial future rooted in reliability, innovation, and strategic vision.
PYTH:NDAQShort
by HCN-News12
The Bitcoin Google trends wedge pattern. Good day traders & investors, Is the Google trends search for Bitcoin about to explode ?! The chart pattern is a bullish one. The Google trend search topped out back in 2017 and has been in a wedge pattern since then. The search/interest recently broke out of this 8 year wedge pattern and this month retested the breakout. This is typically a bullish pattern and shows the interest and search volume is picking up and could very soon explode again. The settings for this search was world wide , bitcoin and a custom time interval set from Jan 1st 2009 to Mar 19th 2025 Since inception the interest for Bitcoin gained volume/growth until it peaked in 2017. Ever since then the interest and searches has been making lower lower highs until very recently (last Oct) where it made a higher high as it broke out of this wedge. Also, since 2017 while making lower highs the google trend has been making higher lows, thus forming this wedge pattern. The break out and retest of this pattern is what shows the signs of strength and a possible explosion of interest in the near future. I have underlaid both timelines of the price and the Google trend to match, and we can clearly see that when the search trend rises, so does the price which shows a strong correlation. All of my other cycle analysis shows that May/June time could see higher prices, so you could say this is a sneak peak or confluence to other indicators. Let me know what you think in the comments below what you think. Does Google trend holds any weight? Do you think this wedge pattern and break out could lead to anything big? Please like and share. My socials are listed in the bio Kind regards, WeAreSatoshi
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
Can Turkey's Lira Dance with the Dollar?Turkey stands at a pivotal moment in its economic journey, navigating through the complexities of fiscal management and monetary policy to stabilize the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar. The nation has embarked on a strategic pivot towards domestic funding, significantly increasing the issuance of Turkish Government Bonds to manage soaring inflation and debt service costs. This approach, while stabilizing in relative terms, challenges Turkey to balance between stimulating growth and controlling inflation, a dance that requires both precision and foresight. The Central Bank of Turkey's decision to cut rates amidst rising inflation paints a picture of calculated risk and strategic optimism. The bank is threading a needle between fostering economic activity and maintaining price stability by targeting a reduction in inflation over the medium term while allowing short-term increases. This policy shift, coupled with a focus on local funding, not only aims to reduce external vulnerabilities but also tests the resilience of Turkey's economy against global economic currents, including the impact of international political changes like the US election. Globally, the economic landscape is fraught with uncertainties, and Turkey's strategy of maintaining a stable credit rating while forecasting a decrease in inflation sets an intriguing stage. The country's ability to attract investment while managing its debt profile, especially in light of global monetary policy shifts by major players like the Federal Reserve and the ECB, will be a testament to its economic stewardship. This narrative invites readers to delve deeper into how Turkey might leverage its economic policies to not only survive but thrive in a fluctuating global market. The enigma of the USD/TRY exchange rate thus becomes a compelling study of economic strategy, where every policy decision is a move in a larger game of financial chess. Turkey's attempt to balance its books while dancing with the dollar challenges conventional economic wisdom and invites observers to ponder: Can a nation truly master its currency's fate in the global marketplace?
Long
by UDIS_View
Could South Korea's Currency Crisis Signal a New Economic ParadiIn a dramatic turn of events that echoes the turbulence of 2009, the South Korean won has plummeted to historic lows, breaching the critical KRW1,450 threshold against the US dollar. This seismic shift in currency markets isn't merely a numerical milestone—it represents a complex interplay of global monetary policy shifts and domestic political dynamics that could reshape our understanding of emerging market vulnerabilities in an interconnected world. The Federal Reserve's recent "hawkish cut" has created a fascinating paradox: while lowering rates, it simultaneously signaled a more conservative approach to future reductions than markets anticipated. This nuanced stance, combined with South Korea's domestic political turbulence following President Yoon Suk Yeol's brief martial law declaration, has created a perfect storm that challenges conventional wisdom about currency stability in advanced emerging economies. The won's position as this year's worst-performing emerging Asian currency raises profound questions about the resilience of regional economic frameworks in the face of complex global pressures. What makes this situation particularly intriguing is the response from South Korean authorities, who have deployed sophisticated market stabilization measures, including an expanded foreign exchange swap line of $65 billion with the National Pension Service. This adaptive response showcases how modern economic management requires increasingly creative solutions to maintain stability in an era where traditional monetary policy tools may no longer suffice. As markets digest these developments, the situation is a compelling case study of how developed economies navigate the delicate balance between market forces and regulatory intervention in an increasingly unpredictable global financial landscape.
Long
by UDIS_View
TBT- Look Out for Exploding RatesThe Federal Reserve's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut despite headline inflation numbers coming in mixed resulted in an immediate reaction from the longer term bond yields. With no hope of moderating national debt numbers, no matter which party prevails next month, the consensus seems to be much higher long term rates. Accelerating oil prices and nervousness over the Middle East concerns may seal the deal. With the US Strategic Oil Reserves drained over recent years, a supply shock could boost oil prices dramatically. Higher rates may also push gold and silver prices down temporarily, such moves would be an opportunity to further accumulate as dollar destruction is inevitable. While the administration hypes lower inflation numbers, moves in base metal stocks in addition to rising longer term interest rates certainly tell a much different story.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AssetDesign
1
Markets Slowing Down Ahead of NFP, What To Lookout ForHey There, The dollar has been in demand so far this week, boosted by it being seen as a safe-haven amid political turmoil in both South Korea and Europe as well as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. With France’s government facing “No Confidence votes” that could spell the end of the short-lived administration of Prime Minister Michael Barnier, pushing the country into uncharted waters of political chaos. Gold Prices rose marginally as political turmoil in South Korea spurred some safe haven demand along with fears of a collaps in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. However, trades continue to remain on the sidelines amid anticipation for more cues on U.S interest rates. But any gains in gold were largely limited by a spike in the dollar as it soared on uncertainty over the long term outlook for U.S rates.
by DeanMuller
4
Trump's Impact on Interest Rates: Higher Rates Ahead?After Trump’s decisive win on November 6th, Bitcoin, the USD, and yields (or interest rates) moved higher. In fact, these markets began moving upward in September, more than a month before Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States. We will study the direction of interest rates based on the actual market sentiment as reflected in U.S. bond yields. 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
2
USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch.USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch (20/09/2024) As we analyze the USD/JPY pair on 20/09/2024, the outlook appears to be slightly bullish for this week and next. Several key drivers are pushing the U.S. dollar higher against the Japanese yen, creating an attractive opportunity for traders. In this article, we’ll break down the fundamental factors behind this forecast and highlight the elements influencing USD/JPY price action in the coming days. 1. US Dollar Strength Bolsters USD/JPY The strength of the U.S. dollar is a critical factor contributing to the bullish bias in USD/JPY. With the Federal Reserve signaling a commitment to maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, the greenback remains in demand. Fed officials have recently emphasized their concerns about persistent inflation, leading markets to believe that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer than previously expected. This hawkish monetary stance, coupled with strong economic data, has made the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors. As a result, USD/JPY has been moving higher, with the strong dollar likely to continue exerting upward pressure on the pair. Key SEO keywords: USD/JPY forecast, US dollar strength, Federal Reserve policy, interest rate hike, USD/JPY price action. 2. Dovish Bank of Japan Keeps the Yen Weak On the other side of the equation, the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ has shown no signs of tightening monetary policy in the near term, despite global inflationary trends. Japan’s central bank continues to prioritize economic support, maintaining low interest rates while avoiding any drastic policy shifts. This dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, widening the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This is a major driver of USD/JPY’s bullish outlook, as investors gravitate towards the higher-yielding U.S. dollar over the lower-yielding yen. Key SEO keywords: Bank of Japan policy, Japanese yen weakness, dovish BoJ, USD/JPY interest rate differential, yen depreciation. 3. Interest Rate Differentials Favor USD/JPY Upside One of the most important factors pushing USD/JPY higher is the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. While U.S. Treasury yields remain attractive, the yield on Japanese government bonds remains low due to the BoJ’s dovish policy stance. This gap in yields makes the U.S. dollar more appealing for investors seeking better returns. The widening interest rate gap is a key bullish signal for USD/JPY, as capital continues to flow into U.S. dollar-denominated assets. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone, and the BoJ remains accommodative, this dynamic will likely support the bullish bias for USD/JPY. Key SEO keywords: Interest rate differentials, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese bond yields, USD/JPY bullish outlook, capital flows into USD. 4. Japanese Economic Weakness Adding Pressure on the Yen Another factor supporting the bullish bias for USD/JPY is the ongoing weakness in the Japanese economy. Japan has struggled with slow economic growth and weak inflation, further justifying the BoJ’s cautious approach to monetary policy. Domestic consumption remains low, and Japan’s economic recovery has been uneven. As a result, the Japanese yen continues to face downside pressure, while the U.S. dollar benefits from stronger economic fundamentals. This divergence between the U.S. and Japanese economies adds to the case for a stronger USD/JPY in the coming weeks. Key SEO keywords: Japanese economic weakness, low inflation in Japan, weak yen, Bank of Japan policy, USD/JPY forecast. 5. USD/JPY Technical Analysis Suggests Further Upside Potential From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is showing signs of further upside. The pair has been testing key resistance levels, and if these levels are broken, we could see a more significant bullish move. The recent price action has shown strength, with USD/JPY consistently finding support at higher lows. Traders should watch for a potential breakout above these resistance zones, as it could signal further gains for USD/JPY. With strong fundamentals supporting the pair, the technical outlook aligns with the overall bullish bias. Key SEO keywords: USD/JPY technical analysis, key resistance levels, USD/JPY price action, bullish trend, support and resistance. Conclusion: Bullish Bias Expected for USD/JPY In conclusion, several fundamental and technical factors support a slightly bullish bias for USD/JPY over the next couple of weeks. The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, favorable interest rate differentials, and Japan’s economic challenges all point towards further upside potential for USD/JPY. Traders and investors should closely monitor these key drivers as they make their trading decisions. As always, staying updated on central bank policies, economic data, and technical signals will be crucial in navigating the USD/JPY price action during this period. Key SEO keywords: USD/JPY forecast, bullish bias, USD/JPY key drivers, US dollar strength, Bank of Japan policy, interest rate differential, USD/JPY technical analysis.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
FED Cutting Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of this week the FED has announced that they will be slashing the FED funds rates by 50bps (0.50%). Contrary to popular belief, this is not necessarily bullish. Actually, the last three times that they did it was an indicator that a bear market was coming. As seen on the lower chart, once the FED cuts the rates, it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future. Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
SP:SPXShort
by FieryTrading
13
Title: Ringgit Rally Fuels Foreign Bond Inflows: A Deep DiveThe Malaysian ringgit has experienced a substantial appreciation, driven by robust foreign investment in the domestic bond market. A surge in capital inflows, totaling RM5.5 billion in July alone, has propelled the ringgit's performance. This analysis delves into the underlying economic factors driving this trend, examining key indicators and assessing the outlook for sustained growth. While the current trajectory is promising, investors must remain cognizant of potential global economic headwinds. Key Points: Strong foreign inflows into Malaysian bonds Ringgit's appreciation driven by multiple factors Deep dive into economic indicators shaping USD/MYR Assessment of Malaysia's economic fundamentals Cautious outlook amid potential global challenges Key Drivers of the Ringgit Rally: Currency Appreciation: Investors are buying bonds unhedged, betting on further ringgit gains. Strong Domestic Economy: Malaysia's economic robustness and expected interest rate stability bolster investor confidence. Global Factors: Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD benefit the ringgit. Economic Indicators Influencing USD/MYR: Interest Rate Differentials: Higher local rates attract foreign capital, strengthening the ringgit. Inflation Rates: Low inflation supports currency value. T rade Balance: Surpluses strengthen the ringgit, reflecting Malaysia's export strength. Economic Growth: Domestic consumption and government spending drive economic growth, enhancing the ringgit's appeal. Political Stability: A stable political climate attracts investment, supporting the currency. Global Economic Conditions: Global trends and geopolitical events affect investor risk appetite and currency flows. Outlook: Malaysia's diversified economy, fiscal prudence, and growing middle class underpin the ringgit's strength. Efforts to boost foreign direct investment and exports further support currency appreciation. However, global uncertainties, US monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility.
Long
by MorMedia
Rising interest rates are not affecting Bitcoin anymore Before significant interest rate hikes, I have claimed that Bitcoin is decoupling from the rest economy (which probably happened). However, the effect of rising interest rates still had some power over the Bitcoin in the tank. It seems that this power of raising interest rates is diminishing for Bitcoin relative to the rest of the economy which will probably suffer quite a bit more after this post. The chances of Bitcoin being affected by raising interest rates are becoming lower and lower. The bitcoin community is pricing in these hikes a lot earlier than the rest of the market. The same thing happened when inflation started (2020), when Bitcoin moved significantly quicker than the CPI. My estimate is that the Bitcoin public generally sticks (as do I) to the rule that Inflation is defined as an increase in money supply and deflation is defined as a decrease in the money supply. These numbers are available much quicker than CPI (Consumer Price Index) which is a trailing indicator and can lag 15-24 months on average. The same thing happened in reverse now. One more important point is that monetary inflation is much more difficult to reverse through rising Interest rates, and the community is also aware of this. In my previous posts I have explained how interest rates cannot curb inflation (even in theory) unless they overshoot the current CPI number, which at the time was over 9%. Interest rates could have bigger effects at <9% rates only if they break the economy (which slowly might start happening), but this will still not be enough to reduce the money supply. This could stop further inflation at <9% interest rates, however at the cost of economy. What they cannot do is reverse inflation, meaning that all the money that is in the system will stay in the system and prices will not come down. Killing inflation this way will be paid for through increased poverty and decreased standard of living, until the economic growth "eats" through that "debt". Which at a 2-3% rate could take multiple years. If we account for all of these effects and consider the Bitcoin community world views, the chance of further fall is very low, while the stock market still has a lot of down room.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by josip
8