Conviction: 5/5 LT, 3/5 MT long-term (multi-year) positive near-term (this year): neutral performance of OANDA:XAUUSD relative to OANDA:XAGUSD looks pretty good, but approaching resistance line. also, recently had bullish divergence on RSI-W in mid-2020.
Conviction: 3/5 May have a better entry point after more breakout from short-term channel (Aug 2020) Main Thesis Bouncing off MT support (2015) Breakout and retest from previous downward resistance (2016) (Blue) Risks RSI-W may breakdown to more attractive levels OR there may be another leg down for a bullish divergence
Conviction: 3/5 Main risk is that we will retest previous support at a lower level Evidence breaking out of LT support (2007) RSI-D recently turned down from overbought levels Risk Could retest previous resistance at lower levels in the coming weeks/months RSI-M and RSI-W are not showing particular signs of overbought or oversold
Conviction: 5/5 May have some short-term fall to retest previous resistance. Better buy after a brief pullback / pause. Recently bounced off LT (2003) channel support at year-end 2021. Also, at the same time seemed to be forming a bullish divergence with RSI-D and RSI-W. Main risk: chinese company de-listing
Conviction: 3/5 Still in downward channel / flag. better to wait for better entry - either on breakout of retest of support. Thesis recently retested & bounced off long-term channel support (1996/2000) Risk market risk = risk for everyone daily RSI-D moving down from recent overbought status
Conviction: 3/5 could drop further to MT support (Sep 2020) General Thesis two possible paths, one bouncing off ST support (Jul 2021) and the other bouncing off MT support (Sep 2020) 2nd scenario seems more likely (just a guess) recently did a bullish divergence in December 2021, so this could be it Potential Risks BTC pair looks attractive,...
Conviction: 3/5 ETH is retesting breakout line (resistance since 2017), sign of outperformance in medium/long-term. Weekly RSI is not at any special levels. Daily RSI approaching oversold levels, but nothing special either... could continue to languish along the trend line down. however, does not tell us direction of ETH itself, just relative performance.
LT Conviction: 5/5 ST Conviction: 2/5 Breakout confirmed for long-term upward movement. Risky short-term. Explain: Lots of agriculture requires fossil fuel as inputs (fertilizer), and with structural underinvestment in fossil fuel extraction, prices should remain elevated for the next few years. This higher prices should trickle down into agriculture...
Conviction: 3/5 For: RSI-W reached historical (short-term at least) bounce levels Seem to hold resistance level around 158 Typically EW retracement after 5 waves goes to 4th wave of previous wave, which is around where our support is. Quick ratio is pretty healthy (>2) RSI-M at level of last bounce (40-50)... although not usual low where major trends...
Conviction: 3/5 26.8 looks like a better entry Main thesis So far (mid week) bounced off of dark blue channel (2020) support. RSI-W touched historical bounce area (however, if we wait for bullish divergence there could be another leg down) Leg down could coincide with .786 retracement (26.8) RSI-D showing bullish divergence Misc Info P/S level...
Conviction: 4/5 Entry is not idea, could have better entry point if price goes down to retest support. Main thesis Bounced off long-term (1991) channel bottom in December Bounced off 50M-MAas well RSI-M also bounced off historical lows, although not levels with highest certainty Confirmed breakthrough from downward resistance line last week Touching...
Conviction: 4/5 Main thesis Retrace to .786 fib level from 2016 lows. This is an unconventional level but it coincided with medium-term resistance from 2009-2020. RSI-W touched historical bounce area (however, if we wait for bullish divergence there could be another leg down) RSI-D showing bullish divergence Touching lower bound of channel (2016) ...
Conviction: 3/5 Risky over the next 6 months, perhaps triggered by fed raising rates in March? Commodities ( AMEX:GSG , AMEX:DBC ) showed real strength over the last two years. However, looking at weekly RSI it looks a bit exhausted (using data from bear market in the last 10 years) Typically with breakouts, the asset will retest former resistance. Also,...
Conviction: 3/5 Overall downtrend, but Real Estate sector ( AMEX:XLRE ) looks like it could continue to outperform S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) to reach the top of the channel. RSI-W, HOWEVER, is showing signs of exhaustion, potentially putting in a bearish divergence.
Conviction: 4/5 Health Care sector looks quite risky. It is touching long-term resistance (2008). RSI-W is also putting in a seeming-start to bearish divergence. Major indicator (perhaps) if this breakdown from short-term support. Historically this could mean another few months of uptrend, but longer term this does not look good for the sector. However,...
Conviction: 5/5 Health Care ( AMEX:XLV ) is looking very attractive relative to S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ), just bounced off of long-term (2022) support on a relative basis. RSI-M at oversold levels (obviously), while RSI-W seems to have put in a bullish divergence? Let's see which channel wins, but I think long-term one is stronger.
Conviction: 3/5 SPY could continue to outperform ACWX for another year as in 2015-2017 period. Main Thesis Weekly RSI of SPY outperformance nearing overbought area, which have historically identified about 3 months of underperformance when SPY/ACWX touches 50W or 100W MA. Monthly RSI also approaching overbought. Daily RSI seems to be rolling over,...
Conviction: 4/5 could retouch support (september 2020) General Thesis daily RSI bounced off oversold levels convincingly bounced off support from september 2020 convincingly next target 0.00078