Last week's surprising jobs report sticky inflation, and persistent and frothy financial conditions may force the Federal Reserve members into a more hawkish position, forcing them to keep the heat on interest rates and the money supply.
Many market participants were looking for a pause in rate hikes as soon as next month and possibly a pivot to lowering rates...
With the most anticipated FOMC announcement in a long time coming tomorrow I'm throwing out my prediction: the Fed will be surprisingly patient with their tapering. This chart shows a few reasons why:
1. M2 growth does not have anywhere close to the same effect as it did on inflation in 1970.
From the 3 decades 1970-2000 the CPI Growth/M2 growth was in the...
The stock market reacted positively to the latest info from the FED today, this lines up well this current rounded bottom formation.
This rounded bottom looks strikingly familiar to the previous step-down pattern, using a fractal we can see a possible dump lower which would bring us into a high-demand zone (36k-37k) and give a possibility of squeezing these...
The markets are at a crucial spot and Powell is due for a decision soon... The chance of negative rates is low but definitely not out of the picture and if that happens, TLT will pump and HYG/IWM will dump (yes SPY too). Timing will be hard but the pressure is certainly building and is confirmed on the technical side of things.
$TLT tested a crucial level at...
On this one, I will leave the time to tell if my analysis and drawings are accurate or not. DXY is going to retest the resistance then go a little bit down, then will eventually break the upper non-horizontal resistance to test the 92-round number and very strong resistance. Will the DXY break it ? I have a huge doubt as I'm not positive on USD since the Biden...
