The JNK/TLT ratio chart visualizes investors' position in greed and safe bonds. An increase means more greed in the market, corresponding with an increase in equities. Based on where we are, I am expecting one last run in the stock market, reaching the top of our resistance trend-line. I have added a fractal to support this thesis.
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Junk bonds look to be double topping. Could lead to some weakness in stocks coming into October. Lets see
Keep an eye on High yielding Junk bonds. A break below the all important horizontal support level @ 108.60 could be a major sign of risk off. Not only is this an important horizontal support zone technically, but it is also where we find the rising 200dma. A break below this level will be quite a negative for risk on assets
Am just looking at my panel of leading indicators, and besides the S&P500 ES1! daily chart looking a bit stalled with MACD turning down, the Russell2000, DJ Transports and Value Geometric Index are already leading down. Key levels to breakdown are in red circles. Some others like the High Yield Bonds and TIPS are still holding; while the Treasury Bonds are being...
Idea for Macro: - Free money is cut off at the source. China Credit Impulse turned negative > Evergrande is first to fall > Overseas investments downsized > widespread effects. - China was the only productive economy in 2020 > driver of global economy (60% importer of oil). - CN30Y is closely correlated to CCI > leads US30Y > leads US risk assets. - Chinese...
No need to say much as previous;y mentioned about the bearish divergence. Looking at the panel again just adds confirmation of how bearish a turn it just had. Some decent downside will follow...
TLT/JNK looking to break out of it's downward trend to become bullish again. As money looks to move towards safe havens. Looking for 172.
A scan of my leading indicators show that 4 out of 4 have topped out and are in clear reversal/retracement mode. Candlestick patterns and technical indicators suggest so. While this is happening, we see more all time highs being clocked on seasonally low volumes. Clearly something is amiss and divergence is about to converge... CAVEAT EMPTOR!
!JNK Short Entry: 13:24:46 (UTC) Thu Jul 16, 2020
looking for further breakdown here after a down day on massive volume $JNK $HYG $SPY
Amidst record corp bond issuance in the month of March (and April looking to be even higher) spreads remain elevated..
I don't believe this is going to be a V shape recovery like we say in December of 2018. I will give it until the end of Friday. At most Monday before we break out of the rising wedge and sh*t hits the fan if not earlier. The 4hr is still on a very healthy uptrend, so this doesn't mean we can't go higher in the short term here. There is a lot of confluence in...
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JNK has stalled at major resistance. The current trend is down so a reversal here should be interpreted as a resumption of the prevailing trend.
While the talk is about the Coronavirus, many are now wondering why central banks are using tools for a financial crisis to fight off a virus. If you follow my work, we were expecting some sort of event to occur for governments and central banks to save face. We knew interest rates were going to 0 (and negative) and QE was going to be reinstalled. However, QE was...
2014-15 vs today Seeing the first impact from virus and oil shocks now If it plays like 2014 we can see a bounce in risk assets soon BUT the worst will come later in a few months