Lumber and 30 year Mortgage – weekly scale: FRED 30 year rates lag most mortgage rates already above 5%. It has been since 2018 since rates were above 5% and lumber was sub 300.00. High priced lumber (any high priced commodity) will eventually correct itself. High prices cure high prices. Now the pinch is on and rates are reacting. Cost of money is no longer...
Today's post is inspired by the work of @CMT_Association here on @TradingView, and is designed to give some insight into financial market vs. business cycle timing: We will be comparing various assets to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for the 🇺🇸. Keep in mind that readings...
12. 8. 22 natural Gas, lumber, and coffee are long trades or potential long trades, and I talked about the details, the tools, and market dynamics as it pertains to the trades.
10. 25. 22 I thought I would use lumber as an example irony, and how the market can do things you may not be able to anticipate, but it will still give you another chance if you get out too soon, will you miss a trade, or you get on the wrong side of the market. And that can cause a tremendous amount of havoc, and because of this, you can get into a lot of trouble...
10. 19. 22 As you know, I spend a lot of time looking add more than one time frame, but you have to do more than just look. While there would have been a profitable trade for me, and it would have a good reward for the risk, sometimes you have to step back a little bit because there are times when you should probably stay longer because of the profit potential,...
The Fed money tightening policies are using interest-rates as a lever to fix a balance sheet problem. Higher rates feed right back into the CPI, initiating the doom loop. After the financial crisis of 2008, The Fed employed a policy action to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 0-0.25% for seven-(7) years, during which time the CPI fell. Post-pandemic...
8. 29. 22 lumber: how to take a look at an existing position and use your tools to help you make objective analysis...As opposed to glut level frustrations and disappointments that are not specifically related to the market.
5.24.22 LBS1! Long Trade.....................................................................................................................
5.19.22 Lumber: how to trade lumber after the 10am open...............................................................
After a double top LBS futures headed in down channel looks to have bottom and bought up. MacD indicators confirm direction of down channel, and a bear flag forming in the past few days I expect further drop if support is broken targeting around 580 $/BF. LBS1!
4.10.22 PA1! and Lumber : I was really surprised when my students sent me an email showing a huge margin requirement for Palladium. I was a little embarrassed to not realize how high the margin requirements were, so I made some excuses for something I missed, and I gave my perspective on how I would look at this and what it means from a practical point of...
This is a chart comparing the buying power of bitcoin against lumber costs so that we can see over time how bitcoin protects the purchasing power of your assets and ensures that the american dream does not become out of reach. Orange line is lumber to dollars. Red and green candles are lumber to bitcoin price adjusted to coexist on the same scale.
4.6.22 LBS1!: This video was a little shorter than normal, and I spent my whole time looking to be a buyer in a market that still might be a little too bearish for me to find a signal. However, what I neglected to say is that if the market does find a buy signal, whether or not I decide to take a long trade, if the market does start going higher today and doesn't...
3.21.22 Lumber : learning something about this market with a lower timeframe. This is a market that will appeal to some traders, will not appeal to others, and probably is not a good Buy-and-hold market for others...but you can make a lot of money with this market. It moves fast, it gaps and reveres ...you have to think fast and be alert...and work for you...
3.18.22: LBS1! DXY Gold.....................................................................................................................
2.2.22 LBS1! had an opportunity for a long scalp. Also, a look at the DXY.
1.27.22 Lumber: a reversal? This is a market that you want to know what is going on using the weekly chart, not just the daily chart.
Hey lumber has been taking a nice dump for the last few weeks, waiting for some momentum.