OECD Leading Indicator vs. Market Cycles - Updated 122022

Today's post is inspired by the work of @CMT_Association here on @TradingView, and is designed to give some insight into financial market vs. business cycle timing:


We will be comparing various assets to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for the 🇺🇸.

Keep in mind that readings above 100 (green dotted line) suggest economic expansion to come while readings below 100 suggests broader economic weakness, and likely economic recession based on history.

Given the the index is currently trading below 100, and possibly continuing to fall — what does this mean for the economic outlook going forward, specifically as it compares to S&P 500 (SPY ES1! SPX), DXY (U.S. Dollar), Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS), 2/10 Yield Curve Inversion (US02Y US10Y), U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY), U.S. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Crude Oil (CL1! USOIL), Lumber Futures (LBS1!), Gold (GOLD), Silver (SILVER), U.S. Mortgage Rates (USALOLITONOSTSAM), and possible timing of the financial market(s) recovery?

Let's have a look at some of the charts as they highlight that real economic weakness is likely into H1/23', paired with the potential beginning of a financial asset recovery as the business cycle works through its bottoming process.

Chart Key for Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): 📊🗝

• Green Dotted Line (Horizontal): >100 = Economic Expansion
  
• Orange Dotted Line (Horizontal): Current Reading
  
• Red Dotted Line (Horizontal): Historic Danger Zone
  
• Black Dashed Lines (Vertical): Pre-Recession OECD Leading Indicator Peak
  

If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼

www.tradingview.com/chart/3MRHk4j1/

S&P 500 SPX 1991-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


S&P 500 SPX 2006-2017 (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


S&P 500 SPX 2016-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


U.S. Dollar DXY (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


US02Y Treasury (Black Link) vs. Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate FEDFUNDS (Blue Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


US02Y/US10Y Yield Curve Inversion (Baseline >0%, <0% Curve Inverted = Trouble in Markets) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


Crude Oil USOIL CL1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


Lumber LBS1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


GOLD (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


SILVER (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


U.S. Mortgage Rates (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):


Here is the updated release schedule for the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for 2023: 🗓

• data.oecd.org/leadin...ng-indicator-cli.htm
  

Learn more about the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) using the link below: 💡

• data.oecd.org/leadin...ng-indicator-cli.htm
  

What is your takeaway(s) from these charts? 👇🏼