I expect price to continue upward at least to retest the last minor high. I still find the NZD to be relatively weak and the GBP strong enough to continue up the fork.
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Disclaimer:
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts...
Idea is based on a combination iof median line analysis and Fibonacci ratios. Don't hesitate to ask if you want to know more. Chart contains all reasoning behind this technical analysis and concrete targets and stop loss!. One can argue that going long from current price is not bad considering the RR, however personally I would wait for the price to stabilize of...
When one considers where price is at right now, then it is not yet possible to say with absolute certainty that NZDUSD is going lower. We are still sitting on top of a strong support line. Only when this line is broken and closed under (on 4hr chart) then I will have a bearish bias. The reasoning behind this technical analysis and concrete targets are shown on the...
Median line analysis and Fib ratio's indicate that USDCAD can not close higher than last weeks high. Price is on the verge of breaking an Andrew's (gray) pitchfork that dates back to 09-04 and thus about to resume it's downward slope (blue pitchfork ) that dates back to 31-01. Expect price to form a double bottom with the lows from 08-05 before going up again....
Are we good to go? Is it a higher low, nicely placed at the lower median line parallel of the blue fork? It looks like CADCHF has found nice support at the 0.382 retracement, which is way above the half-way of the May rally and thus seems to be a factor conducive to further up trend advancement. I find the CAD to be very strong and to have a lot of latent bullish...
I've never used the 3-drivers charting tool before so I'm not sure about this last plot in August of 2014.
Edit:
Corrected once I learned the purpose of the tool - not a perfect fit, but it is at least contained within the price action:
Kiwi took a beating along with Aussie during the week. China's PMI might have provided some temporary relief but technical resistance at 0.8613 is likely to push Kiwi down to retest 0.83173 region which was past resistance which gave way, but was not tested for support. This retracement should provide a good opp. to long the pair again. The final target comes in...
From the larger timeframe, AUDCHF formed an inverted H&S pattern. It failed to rally and retraced back to 38.2% of the rally. This tells us that the inv. H&S is still in play. Switching to H4 charts, with the help of the median line we see how price has been playing out.
A risky trade would be to long at 0.822 - 0.8219 regions with stops below 0.81209.
A safer...
I find the CAD the strongest currency at the moment, although it's not as strong as the CHF is weak. Anyway, this combination definitely favours a long position. But it's probably not the best moment to buy it yet, as the CAD got relatively overbought and the CHF is in a rising phase of its momentum cycle. That's why I decided to wait for a better buying...
Update from the previous chart for USDNOK, we see three patterns confirming the target of 5.83530,
Risks:
20/05: Norway GDP release forecast 1.34%. Prev 1.1% y/y | forecast 1.52%. Prev -0.2% q/q
22/05: Unemployment rate. Its been stable at 3.5%, so any downside reading could pose some threats to this trade.
Here's a little comic story I wrote - from one median line to another. The kiwi is currently neutral, though slightly bullish. The US dollar is not as strong yet as it seems - its recent power display may be short-lived - as I find it long-term weak.
Is the story going to develop according to my scenario? We'll see - yet another reality show. All we can do is...
I expect this market to either retrace to a lower sliding paralel and then make a nice rally up, or go up right from where it is now. Those new highs didn't make much progres to the upside, so it looks like it wanted to retrace deeper, before it makes any further advancements.
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Disclaimer:
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I...
