The long liquidation of nearly 1.2 billion yesterday has cut the OI on Bitmex by nearly half.
The bullish structure is broken, but the price managed to stay above the 3k low.
Is this the the moment of paradigm shift for Bitcoin? Will the Macro (Fed repo injection) have positive impact on BTC price?
How BTC price closes this week will have the tremendous impact...
Miner Capitulation / Hash Ribbons has signaled a buy on daily suggesting that hash rate is stabilizing. Hash ribbons flipped a few days ago and today the SMA 10 crossed over the SMA 20 which is the secondary condition for a long.
Looking at a long term scope, this strategy was supposed to beat even an early buy & hold. Mostly by reducing drawdowns significantly....
The chart speaks for itself. The extrapoled price comes from the "2018 miner capitulation" that caused the price to drop 50%. Will we go back to $3,800? Unlikely, but clearly this is possible if the capitulation is as aggressive as 2018. Notably the VPVR is supporting the price target of $3,800, as is the extrapolation, with forecasted price for the block halving...
A visualization of Bitcoin Hash Rate vs Difficulty.
This helps to show why Difficulty is a lagging indicator.
Difficulty is like a moving average that only updates once every 2 weeks.
Increased Difficulty is not necessarily good... Hash Rates are better for timing capitulation.
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons are extremely close to a potential Miner Capitulation.
Should a Capitulation occur (crossover of the ribbons), it is not the time to be buying Bitcoin.
The best times to buy Bitcoin is on Hash Rate recovery, as identified by this indicator.
For now, we are "still in the green", and Bitcoin's price may have already bottomed.
However, until...
The Metric we have been tracking closely the last days has finally confirmed.
The 1 and 2 month Hash Rates have crossed. We are in a Bitcoin Miner Capitulation.
The only question now is, how deep will we go.
