Multiple Time Frame Analysis
WH+SC+RSI+DXY+CAP WAVETook technical and timing confirmation of the trade on 2 seperate accounts. This trade is what I would call the perfect confirmation and set up. It had everything that I look for when taking a trade. This include a timing+technical+RSI+DXY confirmation. 42 pip Asia_SC for timing, WH for technical, RSI overbought on 15min. 1hr and 4hrs, DXY has SC and WL as well. Multiple resistance points including WH, PL, and SL on EURUSD. Market also move more than the 56pip avg 15 min CAP wave. There is also a 1hr Cap Wave of 103 average as Market moved around 120 pips. Confident in this setup due to multiple strong confirmations. If trade does hit SL than there are SH and another WH for back up trades.
Long trade
Pair EURJYP
Mon 19th Jan 26
9.00 am (NY time)
Entry 183.754
Profit level 184.282 (0.28%)
Stop level (0.067%)
RR 4.29
🧠 Sentiment & Market Narrative — EURJPY (Buy-Side Bias)
Market sentiment has shifted bullish, with EURJPY transitioning from sell-side delivery into buy-side expansion.
Price previously completed a sell-side liquidity run below prior session lows, inducing short participation at a discount. This move failed to gain continuation, signalling absorption and accumulation rather than sustained bearish intent. The subsequent bullish displacement and reclaim of internal structure confirmed a change in order flow.
From a session perspective:
Tokyo provided the initial liquidity sweep and range compression.
London confirmed the reversal with strong bullish follow-through from the discount.
New York acted as the continuation engine, driving price back into premium.
Price is now trading above equilibrium, with upside draw aligned toward unmitigated buy-side liquidity and higher-timeframe inefficiencies. Pullbacks into FVGs and the 0.25–0.50 PD Array are viewed as re-accumulation, not distribution.
Unless price re-accepts below the discounted demand zone, sentiment remains risk-on, favouring buy-side continuation.
Short trade Sell-side trade
Pair BTCUSDT
Mon 19th Jan 26
5.00 pm
LND Session PM
Entry 92959.3
Profit level 90720.9 (2.40%)
Stop level 93335.0 (0.40%)
RR 5.96
Sentiment & Market Narrative — BTCUSDT (Sell-Side Bias | London PM)
Market sentiment during the London PM session was bearish, with BTC firmly positioned in a distribution → sell-side delivery phase.
15min TF overview
Earlier in the day, price completed a buy-side liquidity sweep into prior highs and premium PD Arrays. This upside move failed to achieve acceptance, signalling exhaustion rather than continuation. As London PM unfolded, price repeatedly rejected premium levels, confirming that strength was being sold into.
Key sentiment drivers during London PM:
Failure to hold premium pricing after the liquidity run
Rejection from internal resistance and unmitigated FVGs
Bearish displacement confirming a shift in intraday order flow
London PM acted as the transition window, converting earlier distribution into active downside delivery, with price beginning its draw toward sell-side liquidity and inefficiencies resting below.
This behaviour reflects a risk-off environment, where rallies are used for short positioning, not accumulation.
Unless BTC reclaims and holds above the prior range high and premium PD Arrays, sentiment remains sell-side favoured, with a continuation lower being the higher-probability outcome.
EURNZD: Time for Pullback?! 🇪🇺🇳🇿
EURNZD tested a key daily horizontal support.
With a high probability, the price will pull back from that.
I expect a bullish movement to 2.0048 level.
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GBPUSD H1 Liquidity Grab and Bearish Pullback Setup📝 Description
FX:GBPUSD price has rallied into a higher-timeframe liquidity zone after a strong impulsive leg, tapping premium levels and reacting near prior highs. Current structure suggests the move is corrective rather than the start of a new bullish leg.
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📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bearish while price remains below the H1 liquidity high
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 1.3442
• Stop Loss: Above 1.3454
• TP1: 1.3420
• TP2: 1.3406
• TP3: 1.3386 (HTF draw / lower liquidity)
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🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Buy-side liquidity taken near H1 highs
• Bearish displacement respected on lower timeframes
• Downside liquidity remains the primary draw
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🧩 Summary
As long as price holds below the recent liquidity high, the structure favors a bearish pullback targeting lower H1 liquidity pools before any potential stabilization.
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🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
With USD maintaining relative strength and no fresh GBP catalyst, short-term sentiment supports corrective downside rather than bullish continuation.
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⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BTC: Sellers are defending the 96,043 level.Hi traders and investors!
The last weekly buyer candle has formed on increased volume, with the main volume accumulation occurring essentially around 96,043. As long as the price fails to hold above this level, it confirms that sellers continue to defend it.
On the daily timeframe, it is worth paying attention to the January 13 candle: it also formed on elevated volume and showed a very strong delta, meaning buying activity dominated. However, this activity may turn out to be a bull trap if the market fails to develop further upside.
Key support levels for buyers at the moment are:
90,128 — a weekly level,
89,311 and 89,262 — daily levels.
If these levels fail to hold the price, the probability of a decline toward 83,822 increases — this is the seller’s target within its initiative inside the range. A further move toward a retest of the local low around 80,600 cannot be ruled out.
Profitable trades!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
MNQ Daily Analysis & Replay - Tuesday August 26 2025 part 2Sucks. 2-4 / -$12
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As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
#USDCHF BullishI believe we are bullish on USDCHF. What I believe is going to happen right now is liquidate my Breakout Box to the sell side, or possibly just retest the equilibrium, and go bullish. As of now, we need to wait for more candles to be revealed to confirm where price really wants to move, and for that to happen we need to wait for the London session. We need to pay attention to the 4hour and 1hour timeframe when they are closing and how they are close/ forming. Knowing what the big timeframes are doing and OANDA:USDCHF let it all be in sync with the 15minute timeframe.
MNQ Daily Analysis & Replay - Tuesday August 26 2025 part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
Star Cement — The Quiet Phase Before the Next Big Move?📉 Star Cement — Primary Wave-4 & Wave-5 Context (Elliott Wave Study)
This post is an educational Elliott Wave structure study 📚 based on the current weekly and daily chart of Star Cement.
Star Cement completed a strong multi-year advance 🚀 from the 2022 lows, peaking near the ₹308–310 region . This advance shows classic characteristics of a Primary Wave-3 , including strong momentum, broad participation, and a terminal phase near the highs.
After the peak, price behaviour shifted from trending to overlapping and corrective , suggesting the market has transitioned into a Primary Wave-4 phase . Among the common corrective patterns, a Flat (A-B-C) structure currently best explains the price action.
Within this interpretation, Wave A declined from ~₹308 to ~₹245 and showed overlapping characteristics rather than a clean impulse. Wave B retraced weakly toward ~₹270 and lacked impulsive strength, which is typical behaviour within flat corrections. Wave C is currently unfolding with overlapping internal swings and reduced momentum, supporting the view that this is a corrective decline rather than the start of a new impulsive downtrend.
From a structural and Fibonacci perspective 📐, the chart highlights a broader confluence area between ₹195 and ₹205 , corresponding to the 0.618 retracement of the entire Primary Wave-3 and the 1.272 extension of Wave A. An extended confluence area is also visible around ₹185–190 , near the 0.786 retracement of Primary Wave-3. These zones are presented purely as areas of analytical interest where flat corrections often mature, not as signals.
In educational terms 🎓, a Flat-C phase typically ends quietly rather than dramatically . Behaviour consistent with a maturing correction would include price stabilising within the ₹185–205 zone , smaller and overlapping candles, failed breakdown attempts with quick recoveries, and the emergence of a clean directional move away from the zone. In contrast, continuation of the correction would be suggested by impulsive downside expansion below ~₹185 , increasing range and volume on declines, and weak rebounds that remain capped below prior resistance zones.
The projected Primary Wave-5 🔵 (shown in blue on the chart) is included strictly for higher-degree context. Wave-5 scenarios are only studied after Wave-4 has fully resolved and the structure transitions from corrective to impulsive. Historically, Primary Wave-5 advances tend to be more selective, often shorter than Wave-3, and occur only after prolonged consolidation or correction. The Fibonacci extension zones associated with Wave-5 are theoretical reference levels that illustrate how analysts frame potential future paths, not expectations.
At this stage, Star Cement remains in a Primary Wave-4 corrective environment . The focus is on observing structure, momentum, and confirmation rather than anticipating outcomes 🧠. Higher-degree trend continuation can only be discussed after the correction completes and the market clearly proves a change in behaviour.
📉 Star Cement — Blue Wave-4 on Daily Timeframe (Elliott Study)
After the advance into the ₹308–310 zone 🚀, price behaviour shifted from trending to overlapping and corrective , marking the development of blue Wave-4 on the daily chart. This phase is characterised by segmented declines , frequent counter-trend bounces, and fading momentum , rather than impulsive selling.
Blue Wave-4 is interacting with a key ₹195–205 confluence zone 📐, with a deeper reference near ₹185–190 , areas where corrective waves often stabilise. Wave-4 corrections typically resolve quietly through time and overlap ⏳, not sharp reversals.
This study is shared strictly for educational and analytical discussion and does not constitute investment advice ⚠️.
The Silver Bullet
Silver is back on the rise and showing increasingly strong bullish momentum despite the numerous large accounts on social media trying to pin the top and boast short entries that are currently suffering severely.
On 10/29/24 I described a breakout move occurring where price would see an initial rejection of the $53-$57 range before exploding to a target range of $79 and $132. I don't care to explain where these levels are derived from in great detail in order to preserve a part of my edge through a unique application of Fibonacci.
Aside from the 2.618 @ $132.01 being primary target at this stage in the parabola:
Special interest to the $108-$110 range just ahead here upon break of $96.72. Method implies the next intermediary rejection and reconsolidation begins there, with true support laying at $79.81 in the event of a rejection.
Good luck!
USDJPY- Bullish Continuation | Cycle Re-AlignmentUSDJPY remains bullish from a higher-timeframe perspective, with price continuing to respect a clear higher-high / higher-low structure. Recent impulse legs were supported by strong momentum and volume, confirming institutional participation during expansion.
From a cycle standpoint:
• Price accumulated within a tight range
• Expansion followed, establishing bullish intent
• We are now seeing distribution pull price back into prior accumulation territory
This retracement is part of re-accumulation, not a shift in bias.
As price works lower, I’m allowing bears to print corrective lower-high structure, guiding price into our HTF point of interest — the orange order block. That process is what builds a firm higher low, positioning price for continuation.
Once price reaches the POI, I’ll wait for a lower-timeframe change in character / structure shift to realign with bullish momentum and target midterm and higher-timeframe highs.
Until then — patience is key.
Tracking remains the edge. Let smart money deliver.
Let’s go.
GBPJPY - Bullish Bias | Accumulation-to-Expansion SetupGBPJPY continues to trade with a bullish higher-timeframe bias, visually respecting a HH / HL structure. Recent momentum legs were backed by strong volume, reinforcing smart money participation.
Cycle analysis is clear:
• Accumulation developed within a compressed range
• Expansion confirmed directional intent
• Price is now distributing back into accumulation territory
This retracement is engineering liquidity, not invalidating structure.
I’m focused on how price behaves as bears guide the market lower — specifically watching for descending corrective structure to deliver price into the orange HTF order block.
Once price is fully worked into that zone, I’ll be patient for a lower-timeframe structure shift to confirm renewed buyer interest and continuation toward higher-timeframe objectives.
No rush. No anticipation.
Patience is key. Tracking is still the edge.
AUDJPY - Bullish Continuation | HTF Cycle ResetFrom a higher-timeframe perspective, AUDJPY remains structurally bullish, with clear higher highs and higher lows printed on the chart. Momentum candles show strong participation and volume, confirming institutional interest during expansion.
Zooming out to the cycle:
• Price formed a tight accumulation range
• Expansion followed, validating bullish intent
• We are now seeing distribution pull price back into prior accumulation
This pullback is constructive, not bearish. It’s part of the re-accumulation process.
As price works lower, I’m allowing bears to print lower-high fragments into our key POI — the orange HTF order block. That behavior is what builds a higher low, setting the stage for continuation.
Once price reaches the POI, I’ll be waiting for a lower-timeframe shift in market character / structure to realign with bullish momentum and target midterm and HTF highs.
Until then — patience is key.
Tracking remains the edge. Let the cycle complete.
Let’s go.






















