XAU/USD Update 1Next move on the way, focus on proper risk management & stay disciplined. Wishing you successful trades..!
Confluences & Key Reason:
1. Hidden demand zone.
2. FVG still in pending.
3. E.L still in pending.
4. SSL still in pending.
5. If Bulls pressure remain strong then we'll see huge upside rally.
This is not a financial advise. Confirmation very important. Let's see how it will work.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Short trade
Trade Journal Entry
Pair: GBPJPY
Type: Sellside trade
Date: Wed 17th Sept 2025
Session: LND Session AM
Timeframe: 15m
Trade Parameters
Entry: 200.400
Profit Level (TP): 200.040 (+0.43%)
Stop Level (SL): 201.477 (-0.14%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 3.13
Narrative
Market consolidated during the Asian range, then ran buy-side liquidity at the London open.
A strong displacement candle marked the potential shift, with price rejecting from premium pricing zones.
Sell entry taken after the liquidity sweep above intraday highs.
Stop placed above session high (201.477), protecting against further bullish continuation.
Target set toward discount zone ~200.040, aligning with imbalance fills & prior demand levels.
Supporting confluences: RSI turning down from mid-60s, volume shift confirming sell-side momentum.
GBPCHF: ATL BreakoutI noticed confluence over on the GBPCHF pair. Here's the breakdown on the daily and H1 timeframes.
Daily Timeframe:
EMA20 is below EMA60 > downtrend structure
Price is also bouncing below EMA20 > confirms downtrend
Price also holding below HTL based on previous end at bearish candle
H1 Timeframe:
Price is exiting the EMA band > momentum has high potential to accelerate lower
EMA20 is below EMA60 and expanding > confluence that momentum is accelerating
GBPUSD | BUY 2 SELL SETUP with confirmation price has Tapped a daily Supply so we might see price falling
HTF setup breakdown coming
I have A BUY 2 SELL setup on GU
since price swept through yesterdays low and made a reversal CHoCH
i will buy and sell once price get to that area of interest
so make do of the information how ever you want
Long trade
15min TF overview
Trade Journal Entry
Pair: GBPAUD
Type: Buyside trade (2)
Date: Thu 18th Sept 2025
Session: LND Session AM (7:45 am)
Timeframe: 5m
Trade Parameters
Entry: 2.04827
Profit Level (TP): 2.05948 (+0.55%)
Stop Level (SL): 2.04623 (-0.10%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 5.5
Narrative
The London session created a manipulation sweep into the discount zone before bullish expansion.
Entry taken at 2.04827 following a confirmed BOS (Break of Structure) with FVG support.
Stop Loss is placed tightly below the structural low at 2.04623, giving optimal protection.
Take Profit set at 2.05948, aligning with the premium retracement zone and prior high.
Strong LND AM confluence at 7:45 am supports the setup, as liquidity grab often precedes directional continuation.
Long trade
4Hr TF overview
Trade Journal Entry
Pair: SOLUSDT (Perpetual Mix Contract)
Type: Buyside trade
Date: Sunday 6th July 2025
Session: NY Session AM (00:00 am)
Timeframe: 4H
Trade Parameters
Entry: 147.797
Profit Level (TP): 289.421 (+95.82%)
Stop Level (SL): 145.025 (-1.88%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 51.09
Narrative
Market structure confirmed a macro bullish reversal, with price breaking above previous bearish ranges. Entry taken at discounted accumulation zone around 147.80, just above higher timeframe demand. Stop Loss is placed just beneath the structural low at 145.02 to protect against invalidation. Target projected into premium pricing at 289.42 — aligning with historical resistance & Fibonacci extension levels.
RR extremely favourable (51:1), reflecting asymmetric reward potential.
Trade captured continuation of NY session momentum, backed by strong volume inflows.
Mapping SOLUSDT since July 2025, and thought to share at this point for the community.
Long Trade
30min TF overview
Pair: USDCAD
Direction: Buyside Trade
Date: Tuesday, 16th September 2025
Time: 9:35 AM
Session: New York Session AM
Entry Timeframe: 30m TF
Trade Parameters
Entry: 1.37407
Profit Level: 1.37764 (+0.26%) ≈ 35.7 pips
Stop Level: 1.37348 (–0.01%)
Risk-to-Reward (RR): 7.35
Narrative & Rationale
Buyside entry taken after liquidity sweep and confirmation of bullish order flow shift (CHOCH). Entry located within the discount zone, aligned with OB and FVG support areas.
Tight stop placement beneath accumulation lows reflects a precision entry model.
Targeting continuation into NY session highs and imbalance fill (FVG above).
RSI rebound confirms momentum shift, with volume surge suggesting institutional order flow participation.
Demand Zone and price level 1.37407 equal to (Mon 1st Sept 25) - 8.00 am OB Zone.
Long trade
Trade Journal Entry
Pair: GBPAUD
Type: Buyside trade
Date: Wed 17th Sept 2025
Session: LND Session AM (9:30 am)
Timeframe: 30m
Trade Parameters
Entry: 2.04551
Profit Level (TP): 2.05997 (+0.52%)
Stop Level (SL): 2.04244 (-0.14%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 3.82
Narrative
Price formed a bullish ChoCH (Change of Character) after a prolonged downside.
Smart money footprint observed: liquidity sweep followed by FVG (Fair Value Gap) creation.
Entry taken from LND AM session orderflow confirmation, with alignment across NY continuation.
Trade targets prior imbalance/liquidity pool around 2.0600.
Stop placed beneath the session low / structural base at 2.04244.
APTUSDT is currently strongly bullish4-hour timeframe, the market recently "grabbed" the Sellside Liquidity (SSL) at 4.162, a move that often precedes a major reversal. This event, coupled with the clear presence of Buyside Liquidity (BSL) pools above, has confirmed my uptrend conviction.
trade, my entry is precisely set at 4.280, a level that corresponds with a 2-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), which represents a price inefficiency that the market is likely to re-enter. My primary take-profit target is the 1-hour Buyside Liquidity at 4.815, with a secondary target at the 4-hour Buyside Liquidity zone at 5.576. To manage my risk, my stop-loss is placed at 4.125, safely below the 4-hour Breaker Block. This plan offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and aligns
XAU/USD 18 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price previously, and has now for the second time, printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I also have marked this in red.
Price has continued with it's bullish trajectory, subsequently printing a bearish CHoCH. We are now trading within an established range, however, I shall continue to monitor price action with respect to depth of pullback relative to recent price action.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,703,240.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory, printing all-time-highs.
Previous price action printed a bearish CHoCH, subsequently printing higher, however, due to the insignificant depth of the pullback, relative to recent price action, I shall again apply discretion and not classify this an an internal high. This marked this in red.
Price has since continued bullish, printing a bearish CHoCH. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has reacted from an M15 demand zone, within discount of 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal high priced at 3,703. 240
Alternative scenario: All HTF's require a corrective move, price has since failed to target and close above weak internal high therefore, and in order to confirm HTF bearish pullback phase, price could target strong internal low, priced at 3,612.240.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Long trade
Trade Journal Entry
Pair: EURUSD
Type: Buyside trade
Date: Tue 16th Sept 2025
Session: Tokyo Session AM (8:00 am Observation)
Timeframe: 30m
Trade Parameters
Entry: 1.17858
Profit Level (TP): 1.18559 (+0.60%) | 71.3 pips
Stop Level (SL): 1.17711 (-0.13%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 4.1
Narrative
The market formed a liquidity sweep into discounted pricing during Tokyo's AM hours.
Price tapped a liquidity hub (as of July 1st) and showed a BOS (Break of Structure) upwards.
Confluence of FVG (Fair Value Gap) alignment and session timing supports buyside positioning.
We anticipate a pullback into the discount range before a continuation to the upside>?
USDCAD Trade IdeaBias: Bullish (continuation of uptrend).
Current Context:
Price has not broken the previous low, keeping the bullish structure intact.
Currently retracing to fill the imbalance / unmitigated order block (OB).
Key Observations:
As long as price respects the order block area, the uptrend bias remains valid.
This zone should act as a potential demand area for continuation to the upside.
Trade Scenarios:
Long Opportunity:
Wait for reversal confirmations (CHoCH, bullish BOS, liquidity sweep, or strong rejection wicks) inside the OB/demand zone.
Entry from OB → targeting previous highs / next liquidity pool.
Invalidation:
If price breaks and closes below the identified low/OB, bullish bias is invalidated → wait for new structure to form.
EURJPY: Trend ContinuationNot many confluences here, but there's one key observation on the daily timeframe and another key observation on the H1 timeframe.
Daily Timeframe:
Price crossed the HTL two days ago, and failed to close below it yesterday
The current session's bullish bar signals that momentum is likely to continues upward
H1 Timeframe:
The DTL isn't really at play anymore, not fully marking a clean momentum break
However, price crossing above the EMA20 and exiting the EMA20-60 band signals intraday momentum is accelerating as well
playing on C macroIt seems that we are on c macro, also the price just confirmed that we are on phase D. We only have to wait for the shakeout. start covering at 65.448 at least half of the position, then play aggressively with your st because we are facing a wall, however, it the wall is broken, we will start reaching higher prices till at least 68.262
this is not financial recommendations.
Is Gold about to start a 18 month crash? - August 2025** The next 18 months **
For the last couple of years Without Worries has been quite the bear on gold price action since $2200-2500 per ounce area. Now price action is up an additional 50%. Even today In some parts of the world $2500 remains more than twice the cost miners pay for recovery, which is Incredible.
Price action now flirts with 3400-3500 as Gold bugs call for higher prices. Animal spirts are in full control.
Indeed influencer and enthusiasts talk of forecasts to $7k, $10k as they seek an apology, “Do you admit you were wrong?”, that sort of thing, so strong is the conviction. Looking left, the last 1 to 2 years, absolutely. The market appetite was completely unforeseen by myself. From my perspective a 25 year bull run from $250 an ounce has played out. A bull run that has delivered an astonishing 1300% return, which is many multiples of the increased dollar supply (M2) even if you factor in the rate of inflation.
Has my opinion changed? Is it true this time is different, is Gold now actually front running the inevitable devaluation of fiat currencies?
Absolutely not.
Price action is in an epic bubble not seen since 1980. Most of you reading this weren’t even born then. As incredible as the rush from $2k to $3.5k was (still underperforming Bitcoin by some margin); the last couple of years has protected purchasing power during persistent periods of inflation. The time to make good on that projection has arrived, but many gold investors might ignore that opportunity. Gold as an insurance product is only as good as the day you collect it.
Why so bearish? There’s fundamental and technical outlooks.
The fundamental reasons
A bubble of this magnitude has not been seen since the 1980’s decoupling of the Gold standard. Not withstanding uncertainty and panic, today’s bubble is driven by a combination of factors such as conflict, run away state debt, unstable government, uncertain tariff policy. The combination has been the perfect storm for Gold to thrive.
The 1980’s bubble was followed by a 70% correction after a massive 700% rally. Now we have a 1300% 25 year rally from the lows of 2000, and somehow I’m told this is the new normal.
Typically I’m not one for fundamentals, regardless, the period of history we’re entering is not all that dissimilar from the 1980s through to 1984, many comparisons exist so lets got through them year by year. During each of those years the gold price declined, in particular 81 and 82
What happened between 1980 and 84 to cause such a drawdown?
As we go through the reasons, think about the expectations for 2026 through until 2028, think about what those years may bring considering the world we’re in today and as it was between 1980 to 84.
The period from 1980 to 1984 was marked by significant global events. In particular a severe worldwide economic recession and a heightened period of the Cold War. Republican president Ronald Reagan adopted a more aggressive stance against the Soviet Union. In the end the Soviet Union collapsed, although not the same, war driven Russia today is faced with economic challenges that will require a generation of recovery.
The most significant event of this period was the global recession that began in 81, widely regarded as the most severe since the 1940s. Gold dropped 35% in 1981 alone. A primary cause of the recession was the tightening of monetary policies by major developed nations, particularly the United States under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. This was a deliberate effort to combat high inflation rates that had plagued the economy in previous years (similar to the current situation). Interest rates were significantly increased, reaching nearly 20%.
On Inflationary pressures…
The effects of tariffs are unlikely to be fully realised until late 2026. But the rate of inflation is now falling, right? That’s the talk. However tariff effects will very likely cause strong inflationary pressures, which are just beginning to be felt. This couldn’t come at a worst possible time as the US reports false and falling employment numbers. A combination of rising unemployment with unseen rates of inflation since the 1980s would indeed be an experience not observed for over two generations.
Technological achievements
1982 saw great technologic advancement with the IBM personal computer release marking a significant step in the personal computing revolution. It did not trigger a sudden catastrophic wave of job losses in the way one might imagine. Instead, the arrival accelerated a fundamental restructuring of the job market not unlike what is now seen with the onset of AI tools. I do emphasise ‘tools’, a human component shall always be required. An expert in his or her field. The point would be the disruption to the market new technology brings, which shall inevitability begin with increasing rates of unemployment.
Gold had corrected over 60% by this point.
In summary, the early 1980s was a period of significant economic restructuring aimed at taming inflation, which came at the cost of a severe recession and high unemployment. The geopolitical landscape remained tense and dynamic. When confidence in the market returns, regardless if it is good or bad, Gold falters on market confidence.
The technical
Price action printed a new 6 month candle with the close of July. Whether you believe in technical analysis or not, three are now several facts that require attention. They include:
A candle count.
The age of an Impulsive move is one of the most simplest measurement tools of any chart to help understand if buyer or seller appetite is dwindling. As you study impulsive moves from 6, 7 and 8 month charts that have printed since 1975 you realise each move is limited to a set number of green candles. The greatest being 8 x seven green monthly candle prints. The current print has 7 x seven month candle prints.
The Bollinger Band
For the first time in 45 years price action has printed a candle body well outside the Bollinger Band, 2 standard deviations (red circles) from the Mean. That is extraordinary. There is now a 95% probability price action shall pivot and begin a trend towards the mean, currently priced at $1800.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
To see RSI at 94 on a six month chart in combination with matching Candle Count and Bollinger Band condition is a strong indication of what should be expected to follow. Notice the RSI support is now confirmed as resistance.
In summary, there are both fundamentals and technical reasons to now expect a macro shift in price action due to shifts in the global economy that began many months ago.
Is it possible price action continue with higher prints? Absolutely.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
GBPCAD SWING BUYSMonthly resistance was broken and looks to be holding as strong support now.
Daily resistance has also been broken and retest looks to be real this time around.
Personally waiting for minor H4 resistance to be broken before looking for entries. Main target is next monthly high around 2.03000. Anyone buying this should give themselves a large SL and let it play out for the next coming weeks/months.
Dealing Ranges - Powerful filter tool to your tradingHello Traders today. I ll break down for you how to enter on a pullback with high accuracy and not being stopped out by using a fibonacci in other words a Dealing range.
A Dealing Range forms when price takes out both a swing high and a swing low, followed by a clear expansion move. That expansion swing becomes the dealing range.
• By dividing the dealing range in half, we get two zones:
• Discount region (lower half) – where buying opportunities are typically more favorable.
• Premium region (upper half) – where selling opportunities are typically more favorable.
• You can think of a dealing range as similar to a PD Array Matrix, but specifically applied to expansion swings rather than consolidation phases.
On the example bellow I drew a Dealing range. If I took the long from the key level in the premium the trade would fail. But if waited for the key level in discount I could get much better RR and explosive move vice versa is happening on the bearish order flow charts. Check on your charts
So why is this situation on the above happening quite often?
It's simple - Liquidity. Market makers needs liquidity to fill their orders so they print nice trade opportunities in the premium where trader enter this setup, for trend continuation.
Setup is technically right. But by placing the trades in premium they creates a stop loss cluster = liquidity in the discount. Then this happen - price go for the liquidity of early buyers in the premium hits key level in the discount and it continue with the trend.
Im not saying that key levels in the premium cant work, in the strong trend there is no always pullback to the discount. But by applying Dealing ranges you will get:
Less but more accurate trades
Higher Risk reward setups
You can build HTF narrative
Use it for targets
Better risk management
Remember, there is not always a key level in the premium and pullback to the discount is not enough. Trade must go from a key level. So if there is not a key level in the premium price is often retracing to the discount key level in order to create a liquidity around a key level price makes a false break which sucks traders in to the market and create a liquidity on a key level.
Dont enter if price is not going from key level its a trap.
Time frame alignments
Always use 2 timeframes Higher time frame (HTF) and Lower timeframe (LTF)
• Higher Timeframe (HTF) = Dealing ranges
• Lower Timeframe (LTF) = Market Profiles / Profiling
Timeframe sequence
HTF Monthly - LTF - Daily / H4
HTF Weekly - LTF - H4 / H1
HTF Daily - LTF H1/ M15
HTF H4 - LTF M15 / M5
Im giving 2x LTF options because sometimes you need to scale lower timeframe to understand price action and best entries. However for the confirmations you can do well with the main sequence of first two.
Apply this rule to any markets. Im adding links to few examples from stocks, crypto an FX where you can see application of this concept. Click to charts to open them and see how price behave in discount and premium.
Examples from successful Tradingview Ideas
Tesla pullback to the discount - Low created in discount ATH most likely coming
Bitcoin pullback to the discount - Followed by expansion to ATH
Palantir pullback to the discount - followed by expansion to ATH
Bitcoin pullback to the Discount - followed by expansion
GBPCHF - Targeting Liquidity in the discount
Hope this help you in your trading journey. Let me know in the comments
David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter
NIFTY Intraday Levels for 17th SEP 2025 & SWING PointsMarket Analysis:
NIFTY 50 Index is currently showing Bullish sentiment as it moves within an Ascending Channel (in Daily Chart ), indicating a potential upward trend continuation.
Though formed Bearish Harmonic Gartley Pattern havimg PRZ Near "25345 - 25395" Zone , signaling profit taking at any point of time on Above mentioned zone..
Indicator & Oscillator Short Analysis: "The price is above the 50-period moving average, suggesting a positive momentum. A Bullish MACD crossover further supports the upward movement, providing additional confirmation for potential buying interest.
Major Support levels Shifted from lower level near 24750 - 24850 to at 25110 - 25090 and 25000 ,
while resistance levels at 25345, 24395 and 25418 mark .
# "WEEKLY Levels" mentioned in BOX format.
^^^^^^^ Plot Levels Using 3 Min, 5 Min Time frame in your Chart for Better Analysis ^^^^^^^
L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias.
L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt
L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above.
L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias.
L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt
HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone,
*** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature)
Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart
Color code Used:
Green =. Positive bias.
Red =. Negative bias.
RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change
/ CYCLE Change and Vice Versa.
Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working.
Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry.
📢 Disclaimer
I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser.
The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments.
Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research.
"As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's".
GBPCHF: Bearish After News 🇬🇧🇨🇭
GBPCHF broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support yesterday.
Retesting a broken structure today, the price violated a support line
of a bearish flag pattern after a release of UK CPI this morning.
With a high probability, the price will drop to 1.0726 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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