GBPCHF: Bearish After News 🇬🇧🇨🇭
GBPCHF broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support yesterday.
Retesting a broken structure today, the price violated a support line
of a bearish flag pattern after a release of UK CPI this morning.
With a high probability, the price will drop to 1.0726 level.
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Multiple Time Frame Analysis
PURCHASES??It seems that the market has just started to drop some contracts, that normal. here, we are expecting a potential pullback to persuade the mases to sell so they can buy again cheap. Anyway, we just have to wait till the market completes what we are expecting
Head and shoulders remeber that the pattern has a meaning, in not the pattern per se, it what it means.
what i mean is that first the intention happens and then the pattern appears. If you want to understand it better, just ask chat gpt what is the meaning of this pattern when taking into account wyckoff.
To sum up i expect higher prices but i will only be able to participate once phase C has been confirm, specially when we are on new territory such as price discovery
EURUSD: All Targets Hit — Bulls Aim for 1.1900Hi traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
The false-breakout pattern of the buyer initiative’s lower boundary on the daily TF has played out.
EURUSD has reached all targets: 1.17110, 1.17888, 1.18299.
I expect the buyer move to continue toward 1.1900.
Prefer looking for long setups in the 1.1830–1.1835 zone, i.e., above 1.1830.
Watching.
Wishing you profitable trades!
Buyer Initiative Confirmed — Waiting for the PullbackHi traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Yesterday, silver formed a new buyer initiative, with a new high at 42.972.
Since we don't see clear volume signals on the daily candles that would suggest where a buyer might reappear after a pullback, we’ll rely on the 1-hour timeframe and key daily levels instead.
Ideally, we’d want to see a correction down to the 41.8–41.4 zone. That’s where it would make sense to look for potential buy patterns.
Wishing you profitable trades!
Gold Bulls Walking on Thin Ice1. Yesterday’s action
In yesterday’s analysis I said that although the chart looks bullish, Gold bulls should be very careful. After all, price had already climbed 4,000 pips in less than a month, and such complacency usually doesn’t end well.
During yesterday’s session, XAUUSD spiked above 3700, quickly reversed, and touched the newly formed support at 3675. From there, price attempted another push higher. Now we are once again back at support.
2. Key question
Will the 3670 zone hold, or are bulls about to lose control of the market?
3. Why caution is needed
• The chart is still bullish overall, but the structure is becoming increasingly concerning.
• If bulls lose the 3670 zone, I don’t expect a quick rebound from 3650.
• Instead, the market is more likely to continue lower, with at least a move toward 3620.
4. Trading plan
• From my perspective, buying here is very risky, even riskier than selling.
• I remain out of the market, waiting for a GOOD entry to sell.
• My target is a 700–1000 pip as usual, which I believe will come to the downside, not the upside.
5. Conclusion
Gold’s chart may still look bullish, but risk is shifting quickly. Chasing longs here could be dangerous — patience and discipline are key until the right sell opportunity appears 🚀
NZDUSD: A Slow Pair, but a Clear Setup1. What happened before
Although NZDUSD has been a very slow mover lately, the pair remains highly technical. Looking back, the broader downtrend started in 2014, with the decline visible on the chart since 2021. The most recent leg down began exactly one year ago and ended in April at 0.55 – a level that coincided with both the pandemic low and the October 2022 bottom.
2. Key question
Has NZDUSD finally built a foundation for a bullish continuation, or will the market remain trapped in its slow range?
3. Why upside continuation looks possible
• The rebound from April low reached 0.61 resistance before pulling back.
• Importantly, the pullback stopped at 0.58, forming a higher low and aligning with an old support.
• The new rise that followed confirms strong demand at 0.58, suggesting momentum may continue to the upside.
4. Trading plan
• The pair is bullish above 0.58.
• First upside target: 0.61 resistance.
• Longer-term soft target: 0.64.
• Patience is required – NZDUSD is a slow pair, and such a move needs time to develop.
5. Conclusion
NZDUSD might not be the fastest market, but its technical precision makes it worth watching. Above 0.58, the bias stays bullish, with the market slowly but surely building a case for higher levels 🚀
Tether Prints = Bitcoin Up!Crypto News In A Nutshell
The global crypto market cap now stands at $4.19 trillion, up 1.9% in the last 24 hours.
Despite these geopolitical developments, crypto markets remain relatively muted to this development. Bitcoin has held above the $115,000 level, while altcoins are also trading in green – even leading to increased calls for the start of “Altcoin season”.
Investor Ted notes that the U.S. markets are hitting new highs across the board with gold, stocks and even global money supply (M2) are all at record level, while the national debt continues to climb. Bitcoin is also just 7% away from its all-time high. Yet, the U.S inflation remains at 2.9%, far above the Fed target.
Is This The Start of a New Cycle?
According to Coinmarketcap, Bitcoin dominance has dropped to around 56.6%, while Ethereum has climbed to 13.9% and other altcoins now make up 29.5% of the market. This clear rotation of funds away from Bitcoin into altcoins has caught the attention of traders and analysts alike.
Short-Term Targets For Bitcoin:
- $117,416 Buyside Liquidity Pool
- $118,931 Daily Order Block
- $124,533 All-Time Highs
Silver To $44, Gold To $4,000!Precious Metals Booom!:
- Silver prices at a 14-year high
- Gold Bullion hit a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday
- All precious metals headed for weekly gains
Gold prices rose on Friday, holding close to record highs hit earlier this week, as signs of a weakening U.S. labor market reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will deliver its first rate cut of the year next week Wednesday.
"Weaker employment and spotty inflation... priced in with the Fed having to cut rates is pushing metals higher because there is the risk of longer-term inflation," said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
"The market is preparing for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates at the next meeting. The expectation is that this is not only one cut, (while) U.S. President Donald Trump's desire for lower policy rates also lifts gold's appeal," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
According to experts, the chances of us seeing lower gold prices going into 2026 is lower than Gold rallying higher into uncharted territories due to the poor revised NFP numbers, higher unemployment rate, increase in inflation, reduced consumer sentiment etc..
What To Lookout For Going Into The Future?
- Discovery Prices @ $3,800 per/oz
- Interest Rates Dropping Will Lead To Cheaper Borrowing Which Intern Increases Purchasing Power To Buy More Gold
- $44 Buyside Liquidity For Silver
Fed Funds Rate Drop By 0.25% Might Not Be Enough....US10Y
Yields on the US 10-year Treasury rose close to 3bps to 4.06% on Friday, holding just above the 5-month lows hit in the prior session, as markets grew increasingly confident the Fed will resume rate cuts next week.
Market participants are currently anticipating the equivalent of two to three quarter-point cuts by year-end, while some participants are wagering on a larger half-point move next week.
What Can We Expect Going Forward:
- Unusually High Volatility
- High Probability Liquidity Sweep
- Yields Catch Retail Offside
Areas Of Interest:
- Short-Term Draw To Weekly Buyside @ 4.103%
- Potential To Reach Up Into 4.151% Equilibrium Before or 30 Mins After Announcement
- Long-Term Sellside Draw Through 3.996%, Targeting 3.987% - 3.822% HTF Discount Inefficiency
(Assuming Rates Drop .25 - .50 Basis Points)
10-Year T-Note:
What To Expect Going Forward:
- High Probability For BISI Inefficiencies To Fill
- High Volatility Throughout The Week
- Potential For A Stop Raid
Areas Of Interest:
- 31st Mar 25, NWOG Discount @ 113'00'0
- 112'30'0 BISI Low
- 112'29'5 - 112'26'0 Weekly Volume Imbalance
Coinbase token DEGEN: Bull Flag signals potential 340% rallyAfter a significant 70% correction from its highs in May, DEGEN appears to be setting the stage for a strong bullish reversal. The above chart, prepared from observations on weekly and daily timeframes, indicates the correction has now concluded.
Support and Resistance
The former resistance level from March and April (2) has now been established as a support zone since early September. This "flip" from resistance to support is a classic technical signal.
Trend Reversal
A clear trend reversal is visible in both price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Price action has broken out of its short-term downtrend channel, and the RSI has similarly broken above its own downtrend resistance, confirming renewed momentum.
Bull Flag pattern
A well defined bull flag pattern has formed on the daily chart. This is a continuation pattern that typically follows a strong, impulsive move (the flagpole). The current consolidation is the "flag," and it is expected to lead to another impulsive move equal in size to the first.
Price Target and Forecast
Flagpole Measurement: The first impulsive wave from its low to the recent high was approximately 340%. A repeat of this impulsive move from the base of the bull flag projects a price target of 1.5 cents. Assuming the next impulsive wave follows a similar duration to the first, we can anticipate this forecast is reached in approximately 35 days.
Conclusion
The technical setup for DEGEN is highly bullish. The combination of a confirmed support level, a trend reversal in both price and RSI, and the formation of a textbook bull flag pattern provides a high conviction long signal.
Is is possible price action continues to correct? Sure.
Is it probable? No
Ww
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
Long Trade
15min TF overview
📘 Trade Journal Entry
Pair: USD/JPY
Date: Tue 16th Sept 25
Time: 3.45 pm
Session: New York PM
Timeframe: 15m
🔹 Trade Details
Direction: Buyside Trade
Entry: 1.67497
Profit Target: 146.971 (+0.34%)
Stop Loss: 146.404 (–0.03%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.99
🔹 Technical Context
Liquidity sweep: Trade initiated after price swept lows around 146.40 into a demand zone.
Confluence:
FVG (Fair Value Gap) in NY PM provided an imbalance target.
Demand block underlined by multiple rejections at the session low.
Volume build-up showed absorption of sell pressure before the bounce.
Stop placement: Just below 146.40 liquidity sweep, minimising downside.
Targeting: Prior intraday imbalance around 146.97, aligning with the short-term liquidity pool.
🔹 Trade Narrative
USD/JPY presented a classic NY PM reversal setup. After an aggressive downside, the price found support at a demand block and swept liquidity under session lows. The entry aligned with FVG imbalance recovery, with stop tightly protecting under the liquidity wick. Profit target sits at the first imbalance fill, giving almost 7R efficiency.
Short trade
Pair: GBP/USD
Direction: Sellside trade
Date: Monday, 15th September 2025
Session: London to New York AM (9:10 am entry)
Timeframe: 5M
Trade Details
Entry: 1.36068
Stop Loss: 1.36116 (0.04%)
Take Profit: 1.35789 (0.21%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 3.85
Trade Narrative
The short was executed at the London–New York session crossover (9:00 am), a key volatility window where liquidity transitions.
Trade aligned with sellside bias confirmed by EUR/USD correlation, strengthening conviction for downside continuation.
AUDSGD: H1 DTL BreakI've been alerted by my trend-following signal. Here are the key observations across the two timeframes I've been monitoring.
Daily Timeframe:
Price is above EMA20 > indicating an uptrend
EMA20 above EMA60 > indicating an uptrend
H1 Timeframe:
Price crosses above DTL > indicates upside potential and confluence with daily trend
Price is also crossing above EMA20 > indicates upside momentum should be picking up
Long trade
Pair: AUDUSDT
Direction: Buyside Trade
Date: Tuesday, 16th September 2025
Time: 8:30 AM
Session: New York Session AM
Entry Timeframe: 15 sec TF
Narrative & Rationale
Buyside entry aligned with NY session volatility window (8:30 AM economic release hour).
Execution on the 15-second timeframe highlights precise order flow and liquidity capture.
15sec TF
Bitcoin Buy setupHi everyone.
I think these two areas have a good potential to take at least 1:1RR profit.
I've set orders in these areas.
Lets see what happens.
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
XAU/USD 16 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price previously, and has now for the second time, printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I also have marked this in red.
Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,697.405.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price is currently trading within and internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,697.405.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook ~ BuyThis week my favorite bullish setup with a risk reward ratio of 1:4. This ratio valid for coming week only because price may form new supply zones during the period that can narrow down the movement range in our favor.
However,.marked demand zone stays valid overall. Apply risk management to enjoy trading experience.
USDCHF: Trend ContinuationGoing to make a trend continuation play on the USDCHF pair. I think there's a few levels to look at on both the daily and hourly levels.
Daily Timeframe:
Price crossed the daily HTL at the beginning of September
Price pulled back three days level but still held below it
H1 Timeframe:
This is the second ATL that price is crossing; based on the first ATL cross, movement is clean
Price did not exit from the EMA20/60 band so should reduce side
WTI long or short?Personally i don't see the short becuase we are on a huge buying range, which means that if the market really wants to go down will have to work. Not only that but also they already tried to push the market down that the process failed when buyers stepped in around the 62s.
Anyway, on 4h im seeing how the first time that it got to 62 the buyer appeared aggresively and the second time they literally stopped the market from continue falling. According to what i have said, it is possible to project potential purchases once it breaks 64.192 however, we have to be sure that it is a high quality brea (all the mases can see it and are already in) After that, it is as simple as waiting for a shakeut (wait until they have created liquidity and reclaimed 64.192) after that the market is very likely to go to 65.349. if im correct, i will cover at least 60-70% or more because ill be going against a huge wall and we might still be on AB or already an internal process of D. Lets see
EURJPY Short, 15 SeptemberHTF Bullish, but 4H OB Reaction + 15m Bearish Shift
Setup aligns as a counter-trend short inside HTF bullish context, with clean intraday bearish structure confirmation.
📈 HTF Context:
✅ Price reacting from 4H OB
✅ Daily structure bullish but forming double top liquidity above
⚠️ Trade is against overall HTF bias → requires tighter risk
📉 LTF Confirmation:
💤 Asia range formed
📉 15m broke last relevant low → clear bearish structure shift
🔑 75% probability we create a new LH from current zone (HTF alignment)
🎯 Entry Plan:
⚡ 1m BOS confirmed inside 15m decisional OB
🔑 Entry refined at 5m OB
🛡️ Risk: 0.5% (conservative since against HTF trend)
🎯 TP: Target liquidity below recent 15m low / Asia low