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Multiple Time Frame Analysis

Bitcoin Gaussian channel vs Strategy's leveraged long flywheelFor most of the bull run price rode the Gaussian channel like a moving runway: pullbacks tagged the mid-band, buyers defended, trend continued. The last swing changed that. We got a clean displacement down through the 5 day channel and now BTC is compressing under/inside the band in what resembles a rising wedge attempt. That’s not “game over” by itself, but it is the same kind of “regime change” that historically turns smooth uptrends into ugly, time wasting corrections. The key observation When BTC is above the Gaussian channel and the slope is positive (green), risk markets treat the move like it’s “funded.” When BTC closes below the channel, the market starts acting like credit just tightened. That matters because Strategy’s risk isn’t a magical liquidation button. It’s a financing loop. BTC trending up? Then MSTR tends to trade rich, capital raises are easier, more BTC bought and the flywheel spins faster. So much win. BTC trend breaks? MSTR multiple compresses, capital raises get expensive, obligations become louder, flywheel develops square edges. So BTC closing below the channel is the chart equivalent of Strategy hearing the banker clear his throat. 5 day historical closes below the Gaussian channel Price structure: what the wedge is really saying Right now, the market is doing the classic “I’ll bounce… but not with conviction” behaviour. You must have noticed every time price action climbs surely and slowly it is hammered down in one swift 10 minute $5-10k sell off. That's not retail. That's someone who knows the fan and back of a dogs bum after a huge curry are about to meet. 50-60% corrections are typical once Gaussian channel resistance is confirmed. That's in addition to the already made 30% correction from $126k. A confirmation takes price action down to the $36k area. Why this matters specifically for Strategy Think of Strategy as a trader who doesn’t get auto liquidated, but does have: scheduled obligations (interest + preferred dividends), a reputation trade (mNAV / “BTC proxy premium”), and a dependency on market windows to refinance or raise. When BTC is trending cleanly, the market ignores the obligations. When BTC breaks trend, the obligations become the plot. So the risk isn’t “Strategy must sell tomorrow.” The risk is: BTC drawdown + MSTR premium compression = less flexibility = fewer “nice options” = higher chance they choose an “ugly option” (dilution, costly financing, or BTC sales) In other words: a BTC regime flip turns Strategy’s bold bet into a test of liquidity optics. Scenarios to watch 1) Bear continuation (base case if price stays under the channel) Price fails to reclaim the Gaussian channel (especially the mid/upper band). Wedge support breaks, downside expansion develops. Target zone: low $60Ks Narrative match: Strategy’s flywheel slows, market starts pricing the balance sheet like it matters again. 2) Bull save BTC reclaims the channel and holds it (not a wick, a candle body close and follow through) with a break above wedge resistance and converts it into support. Then the “forced selling” fear premium fades fast. Narrative match: financing window reopens, reflexivity returns. Closing thoughts The Gaussian channel isn't a crystal ball; it's a mood monitor for the market. And right now, it's showing a shift from "euphoric greed" to "nervous sweating." Price has been kicked out of its smooth uptrend and is now flopping around below the channel like a fish on the dock. That's not a healthy pullback; it's a regime change. For Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy (MSTR), this isn't about a magic liquidation threshold. It's about oxygen. Their entire leveraged long flywheel requires the high-octane fuel of a bullish trend. BTC closing below this channel is the equivalent of the engine starting to sputter. The obligations don't disappear; they just get a lot louder when the music stops. Ww Disclaimer =================================================================== Let's be brutally honest here. This is an observation, not an instruction manual. I'm connecting dots on a chart and speculating about corporate finance like an armchair quarterback. I am not a registered financial advisor, and this is absolutely not financial advice. Trading and investing, especially in volatile assets like Bitcoin and related equities (like MSTR), is a fantastic way to incinerate capital. You can and likely will lose money. The models (Gaussian channels, wedges) are just pretty stories we tell about past price movements. The market has a PhD in humbling overconfident analysts. MicroStrategy is a complex entity with liabilities, strategies, and management decisions that are entirely opaque to us on the outside. This flywheel theory is a simplification. The company could have plans, hedges, or lines of credit we know nothing about. Or it could be closer to the edge than anyone realises. We. Don't. Know. Do your own research! Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go check if my own portfolio is obeying its Gaussian channels. Spoiler: it is, awesome.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by without_worries
15
Bitcoin in multi year collapse back to $1k - December 2025Perhaps you've noticed as have I, Media studies and Art collage students now turned financial experts flock to Youtube to inform peers of investment opportunities with the great Boomer wealth rotation that is set to land on their laps. Who would not be in disbelief at the possibility of wealth generated over generations is now at risk of being smoked on speculation in mere months. It is a real risk, and few seem to want to talk about it. Over the next 10 years wealth is expected to rotate from one generation to the next. During that time this one chart about screams "stay away". Few care to listen. Instead it's all recession talk, crash, mountains of debt, sky-high prices, and chaotic politics. Everything seems out of whack, distortion and noise as the AI tech bubble grinds on. Remember the post " Is Alt season dead? - June 2025 " when everyone was convinced of moon?, or " 3 week idea as price action broke down from $120k ". Read the comments, do you see yourself here? Shouting at the wind of sellers as your feet were lifted from the ground? Opportunities to generate significant returns in the years ahead do exist, just not not in crypto. If you stick around over the next 2-3 years, I'll show you them. But you're on your own, will not be guiding folks on every turn or daily pullback. That's for Ww homepage. Instead, this is a post to highlight the Rotation from Growth to value has already begun. Opportunities on real value, on real businesses that generate profit. That's the ticket. Not another "bearish Bitcoin post" As 2025 draws to to a close, the end of another 4 year cycle plays out perfectly. Few want to believe until that 70% correction is complete. They'll return with videos such as "It was manipulated!" or some nonsense. The truth is, a 700% return was made from the lows. That's decent. However, this cycle top was far more nefarious than price action lets on, it was the first time Bitcoin closes last year of a bull market at a lower price than the year began! Let that sink in for a moment. Still not sinking? 1) In the last year of a Bitcoin bull market, usually the most bullish year of the 4 year cycle, price action would nearly double. 2) Seriously. Look left. 2013, 1017, 2021, er 2025 hello. Did you try switching it off and on again? The end of the Bitcoin experiment Okay, the last year of a Bitcoin bull market, price action closed lower. That's not FUD, that's fact. It is the first time in the history of Bitcoin price action that has seen a lower close during the last year of the bull market. Think about that for a moment. That's not adoption, that's gravity gripping maxis by the ankles. The Bitcoin white paper implied a future that creates a globally accessible financial infrastructure. One that aims to give everyone equal opportunity to access a neutral monetary network, regardless of nationality, credit history, or status. Instead why we got was laser eyes and individuals who amassed chunks of the circulating supply. That's arguably more centralised than the US dollar! Since most dollars today exist outside of the US, not in it. (Wait until those dollars come flooding back home, that'll be an entertainment not even a Netflix Warner Bros combo could create). A significant bearish divergence prints On the above 5 month chart we have a higher high matched with a lower high in RSI. Same settings used on the divergence tool. There are now 21 days remaining of the year for that 5 month candle to print. If history is our teacher, two more red candle prints will follow. That's basically all of 2026 to be red. Not just a little bit red, but a scene so bloody even Quentin Tarantino uses the black and white filter. Conclusions, (or how to lose a fortune and blame the illuminati) Right. So to wrap this up for anyone still listening. We’ve established that the world’s gone mad. We’ve got people who until recently thought a “bear market” was a poorly attended gay pride event in the woods now lecturing you on monetary policy from their mum’s box room. The great Boomer wealth handover is coming, and it’s shaping up to be the biggest game of Hot Potato with Grandparents lifesavings. And your entry ticket is a magic internet bean that just had its worst party year *ever*. The facts, for those who enjoy them: 1. Bitcoin just wet itself. In the final, supposedly explosive year of its bull run, it closed *lower*. That’s like the finale of a fireworks display being a single, sad squeaker from a party popper. History screamed “double!”, 2025 whispered “...meh.” 2. The dream is a meme. The promise was a noble, decentralised utopia. The reality is laser eyed influencers and a supply more concentrated than a Kardashian’s self tanner. It’s not a revolution; it’s a pyramid scheme with better graphics. 3. The chart is screaming get out. A macro bearish divergence is printing. In layman's terms, the engine is smoking, the wheels are coming off, and the satnav is politely suggesting, for the 21st time, “At the next available opportunity, please turn the $§%$ around.” So, what’s the takeaway? This isn’t FUD. It’s an intervention. While the world is distracted by AI chatbots writing sonnets and political circuses, real value is quietly shifting. It’s not in speculative digital tokens; it’s in actual, boring, profit-making businesses. I know, double yawn, but the rotation has begun. You can still make 5-10x on stock positions if you chose wisely, manage risk, and are above all… are patient. That means no more 4hr charts and screaming day traders on Tik Tok. Ww Disclaimer ========================== This isn’t financial advice. I’m a bloke with a chart, not a wizard. I’m patiently waiting for Tradingview Mods to elevate me to that status. Nudge nudge. I could be utterly, spectacularly wrong. Bitcoin could moon tomorrow, propelled by a tweet from a billionaire who owns too much of it. You might buy a business that makes widgets and it goes bust because widgets become passé. That’s your gamble. My only point is this: when the history books are written about this period, the chapter won’t be called ‘The Genius of the Crypto Bros.’ It’ll be called ‘The Great Distraction,’ and it’ll sit right between “Tulip Mania” and “That time we all bought NFTs of Monkeys.” The real opportunity isn’t where the hype is. It’s where the silence is. And right now, that's not crypto. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to invest in something sensible. Probably tinned goods and shotgun shells. You know, real value.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by without_worries
120
EURUSD – Liquidity Sweep, Structure Shift & HTF DemandEURUSD has transitioned cleanly through its smart money phases. Price first engineered a sell-side liquidity sweep, removing weak hands before reacting from a higher-timeframe demand zone. This reaction produced an internal break of structure (iBOS), signalling early bullish intent. The market later confirmed this intent with a strong displacement and a higher-timeframe break of structure (BOS), establishing bullish control. A pullback is expected into the HTF demand zone, supported by a protected HTF strong low. As long as this demand zone holds, the expectation remains bullish, with price engineered to seek buy-side liquidity resting above the highs. This is not a reversal model; This is liquidity, structure, and continuation logic.
Long
by AFOKE
XAUUSD – Liquidity, Structure & HTF Demand NarrativePrice action on XAUUSD is unfolding exactly as smart money logic suggests. After a clear higher-timeframe break of structure (BOS), the market transitioned into bullish control, confirming intent to reprice higher. The impulsive move left behind a well-defined HTF demand zone, which represents institutional participation and unfilled buy orders. Current price is trading near previous highs, where short-term reactions are expected. Any corrective move into HTF demand should be viewed as a liquidity-driven retracement, not weakness. As long as HTF demand holds and the higher-timeframe low remains protected, the bullish narrative remains valid, with price engineered to seek buy-side liquidity above the highs. Remember: Structure defines bias. Liquidity defines timing.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by AFOKE
RIVERG GRINDING to ATH until 57 breaksThe current market structure remains bullish, but it is highly sensitive to the 57 level, which represents a critical technical threshold. As long as price action holds above this level, the trend maintains its bullish bias, supported by higher lows and a balanced volume profile. A clean defense of 57 suggests acceptance by buyers and allows the market to continue grinding higher toward a new all-time high. However, a decisive break below 57 would invalidate the bullish structure, triggering a shift to a bearish trend as liquidity below is exposed and selling pressure accelerates.
Long
by Davide_Manfrini
2
GoldContext: The 5,000 Sentinel & The Structural Void Related Tickers: COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026, COMEX:GC1!, CAPITALCOM:DXY Weekly Recap (Jan 19 – Jan 23, 2026) 1. Market Context (Extreme Vertical Initiative) The auction was a display of Vertical Initiative driven by geopolitical shocks. • The Structure: MGC sliced through 4,700 and 4,800 with minimal horizontal development, leaving a Thin Profile with Single Print sequences. • The Behavior: Pure Price Discovery . Friday ended with a Buying Tail , closing at 4,979.7 , confirming OTF buyers remained aggressive into the close. 2. Inventory & Nuance (Safe-Haven Structural Gaps) • Inventory: Stretched Long . The lack of TPO density below current prices suggests a fragile structure. • Structural Anomalies: Rapid moves left behind Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) . These are magnets for future Mean-Reversion if the safe-haven bid cools. Week Ahead Analysis (Jan 26 – Jan 30, 2026) 1. Developing Profile (The 5,000 Battlefield) • The Magnet: 5,000 is the primary sentinel. Acceptance above triggers a shift into uncharted distributions. • The Pivot: 4,980 is the floor. Acceptance below suggests a Look Above and Fail . 2. Fundamental Catalyst (The FOMC Gauntlet) • The Fed (Jan 28): Main event. FOMC rhetoric will decide if the auction continues its vertical search or rotates to find balance. Daytrade Plan (Jan 26, 2026) • Bias: Bullish Initiative above 4,980. • Scenario A: Acceptance with Volume above 5,000 targets 5,050+. • Scenario B: Rejection at 5,000 targets rotation to the 4,900 HVN . • Invalidation: Value migration below 4,830 kills the immediate bull case. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026Long
by Ken_Kissaki
MSFT: Seller maintains control of the initiativeHi traders and investors! While the monthly candle has not yet closed (around 5 days remain until the close), on the 14-day timeframe the seller candle from January 2 closed within the seller’s initiative. This means that the seller has pushed the price back into the range on this timeframe. Notably, this candle has the largest volume since March 2025, which gives grounds to expect a continuation of the seller’s initiative. At the same time, the first target — the 50% level of the trading range at 450.12 — has already been reached. From here, we continue to monitor how the situation develops. Now let’s look at the daily timeframe: A seller initiative is present. At the lower boundary of the latest seller initiative, there was a seller candle with strong volume, which was then absorbed by an even larger buyer volume. Under normal conditions, this could suggest a potential continuation of the buyer’s move. However, there is an important nuance: in this buyer candle, the key volume was accumulated in the upper part of the candle, above the start of the seller initiative at 463.15 (marked by the blue band on the chart). This structure may also indicate a bull trap. Where it makes sense to look for long-term buying opportunities was outlined in the previous review. Profitable trades! This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by AlexeyWolf
1/7/26 - BNTX: new BUY mechanical trading signal.1/7/26 - BNTX: new BUY signal chosen by a rules based, mechanical trading system. BNTX - BUY Stop Loss @ 91.11 Entry BUY @ 100.08 Target Profit @ 113.80 Analysis: Higher timeframe: Prices have stayed above the lower channel line of the ATR (Average True Range) Keltner Channel and reversed. Higher timeframe: Victor Sperandeo's (Trader Vic) classic 1-2-3/2B BUY pattern...where the current lowest bottom breakout price is greater or only slightly peaking lower than the preceding bottom price.
NASDAQ:BNTXLong
by martinmlm