Will USDJPY Continue to Sell? Swing Trade Analysis Hey Rich Friends,
Happy Monday. I do think that USDJPY may continue to sell this week. This is only my technical analysis. Please check the news and cross reference the indicators you have on your own chart.
Here are the bearish (sell) confirmations that I see:
- Previous structure was broken to the downside with Friday's large red candle. On Monday, the candle also closed red. The break and retest to the downside is a sell confirmation for me.
- There is bearish confluence on the weekly, daily and H4 charts
- The stochastic is facing down, the slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue) and one or both lines have crossed below 20. These are all bearish confirmations for me.
Additional information:
- You can wait for the newer structure to be broken again to confirm the sell.
- I will be using previous lows as my sell stops and TPs and previous highs for SL.
Only take trades that make sense to you.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Long trade 📈 EURJPY — Buy-Side Sentiment Analysis (15-Minute)
Observed: Mon 26th Jan 2026
Session: London AM
Time Reference: 6:00 am (NY time)
📌 Trade Details
Entry: 186.241
Take Profit: 187.418 (1.86%)
Stop Loss: 185.954 (0.14%)
Risk–Reward: 12.89R
🟢 Directional Bias
Buy-side reversal → continuation:
Price action indicates a completed sell-side run, followed by institutional absorption and a controlled transition back into bullish order flow.
🧠 Market Sentiment Overview
An extended bearish leg engineered downside liquidity
Sell-side liquidity swept clean into the 182.00 handle
Aggressive rejection from the lows signals sell-side exhaustion
Buyers stepped in decisively → sentiment flipped from risk-off to accumulation.
🧩 Structural Context
Bearish structure completed its objective (equal lows / sell-side pool)
Sharp displacement higher confirms local bullish BOS
The market transitioned from deep discount back toward equilibrium
Structure now supports mean reversion higher, not continuation lower.
📊 Volume Profile & Value
Heavy volume absorption at the lows
Value began migrating higher post-sweep
Acceptance above in the raday value confirms a bullish auction response
🟦 PD Arrays / Fair Value Gaps
Multiple bullish FVGs formed on the impulse from the lows
Entry aligns with discount mitigation inside bullish inefficiency
No clean inefficiencies left below → downside fuel largely removed
⏱️ Session Behaviour
London AM delivered the true low of the move
Classic session profile:
Asia consolidates → London sweeps → expansion follows
NY continuation his ighly probable if the structure holds
🎯 Trade Logic
Sell-side liquidity fully taken
The market showed immediate bullish displacement
Pullbacks are shallow and supported
Buyside liquidity resting above prior highs acts as a magnet
⚠️ Invalidation Criteria
Failure to hold above the reclaimed structure
Bearish displacement back into discount
Acceptance below post-sweep low
Until then, buy-side bias remains valid.
🧾 Summary
EURJPY shows buy-side sentiment following a completed sell-side liquidity sweep and strong bullish displacement. Absorption at the lows and acceptance back above the value support mean reversion toward premium liquidity.
XAU/USD 27 January 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per analysis dated 22 January where I mentioned price could potentially continue bullish is how price printed.
CHoCH positioning has again been brought closer to current price action and is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price is trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Thereafter price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 5,111.510.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market.
Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings.
Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed according to yesterday's analysis dated 26 February by printing a bearish CHoCH, to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either M15 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high, priced at 5,111,510.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print a bearish iBOS as all HTF's require pullback.
Note:
Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.
With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.
Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.
M15 Chart:
NZDJPY: Bullish Outlook Explained 🇳🇿🇯🇵
NZDJPY is going to rise more after a confirmed bullish change of character
on an hourly time frame.
I expect a bullish movement at least to 92.485 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
S&P 500 - High Probability Bullish PlayLow Resistance Liquidity Run Throughout Monday's Price Action.
Down Close Candles Supports Bullish Narrative
In Line With Bullish Play For Nasdaq Called 4 Days Ago (Still Active Trade Setup)
$6,997 In The Cards
$7,036 All-Time Highs Is Final Terminus
Beneficial For Short-Term Traders
Silver: Record volume —consolidation and correction likelyHi traders and investors!
On January 26, trading volume on OANDA reached an all-time high — such volume has never been recorded there before. On COMEX futures, a higher volume occurred only twice, once in 2020 and once in 2021.
Considering this volume and the structure of the daily candles (with the main volume accumulated in the upper part of the range), there are reasons to believe that the price is close to a high, where the market may enter a phase of consolidation, followed by a correction.
Based on the CFD chart (on the left), two potential correction zones can be identified:
First correction zone: 96–90
Second correction zone: 86.5–80
Profitable trades!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
WTI: False breakout above the range — seller priorityHi traders and investors!
On the 4-hour timeframe, a false-breakout pattern has formed above the upper boundary of the range.
The chart shows that key volume was accumulated above the range high (highlighted by the blue band), after which the price returned back into the range.
The seller initiative is currently active. The initiative target is 59.068, which aligns with a daily level, adding confluence to the scenario.
In the current context, it makes sense to look for short (sell) patterns.
Profitable trades!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
BITCOINI believe Bitcoin is brewing up a couple of big moves for this year. However, I also think that it's going to trick a lot of people before the true move takes place.
I analyze four "main charts" for directional bias, and I use the others as fillers. Currently, I'm getting half & half with my bias, where two is telling me bear and the other two is leaning towards bull. The two smallest TFs is bear at the moment, and I'm viewing that as a precursor for what's to come in the future.
In my opinion, Bitcoin's price must bleed before the next bull run takes place. Price action is near not only the daily low, but it's hovering over the current weekly & monthly low, too! I would like to see the bulls takeover on the daily and weekly TFs in order for price to rally to the highs, but only for it to run into huge bear barriers.
Bear Barriers:
1. Monthly IMB (untouched)
2. 3M wick (untouched)
3. Bear range ($130K - $160K)
4. S/R ($122,100K)
If the bears do come into the market around the $130K - $160K range, I'm anticipating a massive drop in price around $40K - $60K. Sounds crazy right?! I have my reasons why, but I'll keep it close to the chest until things starts to unfold with this crypto.
In conclusion, I'm currently stuck in the middle with my bias until the two smallest TFs flip back to bull, but price can throw a curve ball and demolish the monthly low to turn it bear... we shall see how this plays out, and I'll share my thoughts as it progress.
MRNA Story - On A Smaller ScaleIn continuation of the previous idea, I wanted to cover the shorter time frame move on $NASDAQ:MRNA.
Really, this is a more simple analysis as the base is clearly set on the weekly chart. I should note I have analyzed the consolidation on the 2-Week time period. The 2-Week time period does also give a range expansion signal, but for a more detailed look I am showing the 1-Week time period.
With the current base, and a measure of this consolidation range (from low to high), a first target of $42.76 can be obtained. If the trend continues in a really strong fashion, a second target of $68.17 would look to be hit. Sometimes when an explosive move like this happens, a retest of the mode can occur like in the example path shown below. However, just as the continuation of this trend remains to be seen, so does any retest of this move. Make bets accordingly.
Whether the trend continues, and how strong it remains, of course is yet to be determined. But this analysis allows for educated guesses to be made and positions to be taken.
Best of luck to all of us who are entering positions and looking for continuation of this trend reversal play.
Pasting the regular weekly chart (no path) here:
Enjoy,
Reagen
XAUUSD - Post London Session, Pre New York (Jan 26)Gold finally broke above 5000 this morning.
Asia session:
Price opened with a gap up into 5015 and continued higher, pushing into 5092 to form the Asia high before pulling back into the 5050 support area.
London session:
Price broke above the Asia high and extended into 5111, but was rejected and fell back below. Since then, it has been ranging between 5075 and 5096.
Heading into New York, here’s what I’m watching:
• A clean break and close above 5097 would open the door toward the 5115 area.
• A break and close below 5078 would shift focus to the 5055–5058 support zone.
• Momentum remains strongly bullish, but there are large gaps and price is extended, so patience and confirmation are key.
• A loss of the 5055–5058 area would expose the 5030 support next.
Let price come to the levels. No rush, no FOMO - clean structure first.
Eurusd just got outside of the consolidationOn w
After a really long consolidation, seem that the market finally got outside of the range but
is it going to stay bullish or is gonna reverse?
who gonna win in the end? the bulls or the bears?
To be honest, i do have no idea, but in the video i have explained 2 scenarios i am looking to trade, so... watch it all
AUDCAD - BullishPrice is pushing higher with rising volume, and for now I’m simply watching the show. I expect sell-side liquidity to be taken as price works toward midweek objectives.
If bears step in and bring price back into discounted territory, I’ll shift focus to how it distributes and forms a corrective structure. Otherwise, I’m content sitting on my hands and letting price do the work.
Nothing forced.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
USDCAD - BullishFrom my perspective, higher-timeframe structure has flipped, with sellers taking control. Price has shown a clear shift in market character, breaking the prior major higher low and establishing downside intent.
From here, I’m watching for a strong HTF lower high to form, which would keep price aligned toward continuation to the lows. Until that develops, I’m simply reading the tape and tracking behavior.
Nothing forced.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
LONG ON AUD/JPYThe Jpy Index pushed up on Friday but is now starting to retrace/pullback/correct or fall.
We have a nice choc (change of character) from down to up on AJ on the 15min timeframe.
I expect price to drop first to 106.392 then rise.
This is a buy limit order. I will be looking to catch 100-200 pips.
NZDJPY Market OutlookMarket cycles and price patterns tend to repeat across global financial markets. For patient traders with a keen eye, these recurring structures often create opportunities for asymmetric risk-reward trades.
During 2024 and into 2025, the Japanese Yen strengthened significantly against major global currencies. A combination of rate hikes, tariff pressures, and heightened geopolitical risk weighed heavily on risk-sensitive currencies, pushing the New Zealand Dollar lower against the Yen.
This sustained decline in NZDJPY created a clear market imbalance in the 94–95 price region—an area that price had not fully mitigated during the selloff. Historically, NZDJPY has displayed a recurring behavioral pattern:
a sharp impulsive decline, followed by a slow and extended corrective recovery, and eventually another leg lower.
April 2025 marked the conclusion of the bearish impulse and the beginning of a corrective bullish phase. Since then, price has been gradually recovering, consistent with prior corrective structures observed on this pair.
At present, NZDJPY appears to be targeting the 95–97 zone to complete the mitigation of the previously formed imbalance. This area represents a critical decision point. Should price complete the correction as expected, the broader structure favors a continuation lower, with downside targets aligned toward the fair value gap near the 78 handle.
Long trade
Trade Details
Entry: 25,651.00
Take Profit: 25,827.50 (0.68%)
Stop Loss: 25,623.50 (0.10%)
Risk–Reward: 6.42R
🟢 Directional Bias
Buy-side continuation:
The market shows acceptance back above intraday value following a sell-side liquidity purge, indicating bullish order-flow control.
🧠 Market Sentiment Overview
Early session weakness engineered sell-side liquidity
Sharp rejection from the lows confirms sell-side absorption
Subsequent impulsive moves higher signal institutional accumulation
This is a re-accumulation after a stop-run.
🧩 Structural Context
Sell-side liquidity swept below the Asian range
Immediate displacement higher created a bullish BOS
Price transitioned from discount → equilibrium → premium
Structure supports continuation higher, not mean reversion lower.
📊 Volume Profile & Value
Reclaim of intraday POC / value low
Acceptance above the value confirms a bullish auction
Volume shifts higher → value following price.
🟦 PD Arrays / Fair Value Gaps
Entry aligned with a bullish FVG inside discount
Clean mitigation followed by continuation
No inefficient gaps left below → downside fuel reduced.
⏱️ Session Behaviour
London AM delivered the liquidity sweep + reversal
Follow through into NY, the overlap is likely.
classic London manipulation → NY expansion profile.
🎯 Trade Logic
Sell-side liquidity cleared early
Market reclaimed value with displacement
Buyers defended pullbacks aggressively
Buyside liquidity resting above prior highs.
⚠️ Invalidation Criteria
Failure to hold above the reclaimed value
Bearish displacement back into discount
Until then, buy-side bias remains intact.
🧾 TradingView-Ready Summary
MNQH shows buy-side continuation following a sell-side liquidity sweep and strong bullish displacement. Acceptance above value and clean FVG mitigation support further upside expansion.
Short trade
Trade Details
Entry: 0.86920
Take Profit: 0.86568 (0.40%)
Stop Loss: 0.86988 (0.078%)
Risk–Reward: 5.18R
🔴 Directional Bias
Sell-side continuation: Price action confirms a bearish intraday narrative, with downside liquidity acting as the dominant draw.
🧠 Market Sentiment Overview
Bullish attempts were absorbed, not accepted
Buyers failed to hold above fair value → transition back into discount
Market sentiment shifted from responsive buying → aggressive selling
This is a distribution into weakness, not a healthy pullback.
🟦 Fair Value / PD Array Confluence
Entry aligned with fair value/equilibrium zone
Rejection from ~0.50–0.75 range confirms premium sell
Clean displacement away from value supports continuation.
⏱️ Session Behaviour
Sell-side expansion aligns with thin liquidity conditions. No impulsive reclaim back into range
We assume this indicates smart-money distribution and not stop-run noise.
🧩Structural Context
Prior range high sweep (buyside liquidity) failed
Subsequent lower high formed beneath key intraday resistance
Breaking back below the fair value confirmed bearish order-flow control.
🎯 Trade Logic
Liquidity run completed on the upside. The market failed to sustain acceptance above the resistance. Sellers stepped in aggressively at value. Downside liquidity remains unswept → natural price magnet.
⚠️Invalidation Criteria
Sustained acceptance back above the value / POC
Strong bullish displacement reclaiming prior highs
Until then, sell-side bias remains valid.
🧾 Summary
EURGBP shows clear sell-side sentiment following a failed buyside sweep and rejection from value. Acceptance below POC confirms bearish order flow, with downside liquidity acting as the primary driver.
Long trade
15min TF overview
Pair: XRP
Bias: Buy-Side
Date: Sun 18th Jan 2026
Time: 7:00 PM
Session: NY Session pm
Execution TF: 15-Minute
Model: Liquidity Mitigation → Expansion
🟥 EXECUTION & RISK
Entry: 1.8551
Stop Loss: 1.8417 (tight invalidation below demand)
Take Profit: 2.4148 (premium liquidity objective)
Risk–Reward: 41.77R
Sentiment & Market Narrative — Buy-Side Bias
Market sentiment at the time of entry was decisively bullish, with XRP transitioning from a distribution phase into an expansion phase following a prolonged consolidation period.
Price had already completed a higher-timeframe markdown and re-accumulation, evident through compression, declining volatility, and repeated defence of discounted price levels. Sell-side liquidity had been sufficiently mitigated, reducing the downside incentive and shifting the market’s draw toward buy-side objectives that rested above prior highs.
From a session perspective:
Tokyo and London sessions maintained a tight range, absorbing residual sell pressure.
New York PM acted as the expansion catalyst, breaking internal structure and confirming bullish intent.
The entry occurred in a discounted region, aligned with a balanced price range and internal inefficiencies, providing optimal asymmetric conditions. The shallow stop placement reflects strong underlying demand, while the projected upside targets premium liquidity pools and higher-timeframe inefficiencies.
Broader sentiment supported risk-on continuation, with price behaviour suggesting smart-money positioning ahead of a larger impulsive move rather than reactive short-covering.
BTCUSDTTRADING SCENARIOS ANALYSIS
MARKET DYNAMICS
Bitcoin showing strong institutional accumulation with clear bullish
structure across multiple timeframes. 1w timeframe displays massive
bullish OB (62737.20-48888.00) with 36.39% volume, indicating major
smart money positioning. Recent price action: 4-candle bullish rally
from 90469.70 to 96828.10 (+6.96%) with BOS confirmations on 8h
(94555.00) and 4h (94760.30). Current price at 96828.10 is 90.5% into
24h range, suggesting short-term overextension. Triple OB confluence
at 89-90k zone (1w/8h/4h) provides strong institutional demand. Price
broke above 8h core cluster (96345.75) and currently testing 4h
cluster lower boundary (99100.88). Multi-timeframe bias neutral (0%
strength) indicates consolidation phase, but higher timeframe
structure (1w/1d) remains bullish. ATR at 2453.98 (2.53%) shows
healthy volatility for position sizing.
RISK FACTORS
1. Price overextended at 90.5% of 24h range - pullback likely before
continuation
2. Bearish FVG confluence at 112330.93 (1d/8h/4h) creates resistance
zone 16% above current price
3. 1d bearish OB at 126208.50-123018.50 with 30.20% volume caps upside
at +28.7%
4. Recent bearish candle on 1d timeframe shows profit-taking after 4-day
rally
5. Multi-timeframe bias neutral (0%) indicates lack of immediate
directional conviction
6. 4h timeframe shows bearish structure bias with recent BOS at 98888.80
7. Low volume on last 1d candle (60026.83) compared to rally average
(169k-200k) suggests weakening momentum
RECOMMENDED TRADING APPROACH
--- ENTRY ZONE STRATEGY ---
The optimal entry zone spans 89242.00-94413.40, with the sweet spot at
92258.00 (bottom of 1d bullish FVG). This range represents a critical
institutional demand confluence: (1) 1w Bullish OB (62737.20-48888.00)
with massive 36.39% volume showing major accumulation, (2) 8h Bullish
OB (90790.00-89242.00) with 19.03% volume as nearest demand, (3) 4h
Bullish OB (90790.00-89242.00) with strongest 50.19% volume, and (4)
1d unmitigated Bullish FVG (94413.40-92488.00) created during recent
rally. The cross-timeframe cluster at 88472.06 (1w/8h/4h confluence
with 19.33 total strength) anchors this zone. Positioning strategy:
Set limit orders in layers - 30% at 94413.40 (FVG top), 40% at
92258.00 (FVG optimal/8h FVG bottom), 30% at 89242.00 (OB bottom/swing
low). This captures institutional retest while managing risk if price
doesn't retrace fully. Current price at 96828.10 is 4.48% above
optimal entry, requiring patience for pullback.
--- TRIGGER LEVEL ---
Trigger level at 92488.00 represents the BOTTOM of the 1d bullish FVG
(94413.40-92488.00) and aligns with the 8h bullish FVG bottom
(94413.40-92258.00). This is NOT a breakout level - it's a RETEST
confirmation point. Expected price action: Wait for price to retrace
from current 96828.10 and CLOSE BELOW 94413.40 on 4h timeframe,
confirming entry into the FVG retest zone. Ideal trigger: 4h candle
closes between 92258.00-94413.40 with bullish rejection wick (showing
demand), then enter on next candle open. Alternative aggressive entry:
Price touches 92488.00 with strong bullish engulfing on 1h/4h. DO NOT
chase current price - wait for institutional retest of demand zone.
The 1d FVG remains unmitigated, making this a high-probability retest
target.
--- INVALIDATION CONDITIONS ---
Scenario remains valid above entry as long as price stays above
86355.00. However, if price fails to retrace into entry zone
(89242.00-94413.40) and instead breaks above 99100.88 (4h cluster
center) with strong momentum, consider this a missed opportunity - DO
NOT chase. Re-evaluate if price reaches 102509.10 (4h bearish FVG)
without retest, as this indicates stronger-than-expected momentum that
bypassed institutional demand zone.
EXACT invalidation: 4h candle close below 86355.00 (4h swing low from
index 367). This level sits below the triple OB confluence zone and
represents structural breakdown. Additional invalidation: Close below
87688.00 (4h swing low from index 265) on 4h timeframe with volume
spike suggests bearish CHoCH forming. Partial invalidation: Wick below
89242.00 that closes back above is acceptable (liquidity sweep), but
close below 89242.00 on 4h reduces probability to 50% - tighten stop
to 87688.00.
Critical structural invalidations: (1) Bearish CHoCH on 4h breaking
below 89242.00 with 2+ consecutive closes, (2) 8h timeframe forms
bearish BOS breaking 89242.00 swing low, (3) 1d timeframe closes below
91011.00 (previous day's low), creating lower low and negating bullish
structure, (4) Higher timeframe conflict: 1w closes below 86760.00
(recent swing low), invalidating entire bullish thesis. Monitor 4h
retracements: if price retraces beyond 61.8% of recent rally (below
91252.50) without bullish reaction, structure weakens significantly.
--- POST ENTRY MONITORING ---
• 94760.3: 4h BOS level and recent swing high - first resistance after
entry
→ Action: Monitor for clean break above with volume. Failure to
break suggests ranging - consider partial profit at entry +2%
• 98888.8: 8h bearish BOS level and 4h historical resistance - key
breakout point
→ Action: CRITICAL: 4h close above this level confirms bullish
continuation. Move SL to breakeven. Rejection here may cause
retest of entry zone
• 99100.88: 4h cluster center with 13.2 strength - major resistance
zone
→ Action: Strong resistance. Watch for consolidation 96k-99k. Break
above with volume targets 102k. Failure may trigger pullback to
94k
• 102509.1: 4h bearish FVG bottom - institutional supply zone entry
→ Action: Expect initial rejection. Clean break confirms strong
momentum. Move SL to 94760.30 and take 40% profit at TP1
(107211.50)
• 107211.5: TP1 - 1d swing low / 8h swing high confluence with 2.8
cluster strength
→ Action: Take 40% profit. Major liquidity zone. Monitor for
rejection or consolidation. Break above targets 111959.50
• 111959.5: TP2 - 1w swing high and 1d BOS level - institutional
resistance
→ Action: Take 30% profit. Strong resistance. Monitor 1d timeframe
for bearish reversal patterns. Break targets 124k
• Entry confirmation: Look for volume spike (>100k on 4h) when price
enters 89-94k zone, indicating institutional buying
• Breakout validation: Volume must exceed 150k on 4h when breaking
98888.80 (8h BOS) to confirm continuation
• Momentum divergence: If price makes higher highs above 99k but 4h
volume declining (<80k), warns of exhaustion - tighten stops
• 1d timeframe: Monitor daily volume - sustained rally needs >150k
daily volume. Drop below 100k suggests consolidation incoming
• Relative volume: Compare current 4h volume to 20-period average.
Break above 98888.80 needs 1.5x average volume minimum
• Bullish: 4h closes above 98888.80 with strong body (>60% of candle
range) and volume >150k
• Bullish: Price consolidates 96k-99k for 2-3 days then breaks above
99100.88 with volume expansion
• Bullish: 1d timeframe forms bullish engulfing above 97932.10 (recent
high) with volume >180k
• Bullish: 8h forms higher low above 94760.30 then breaks 98888.80 -
confirms uptrend continuation
• Strong bullish: Price gaps up through 99100.88 on 1d open,
indicating institutional FOMO - targets 107k directly
• Bearish: 4h forms lower high below 96988.00 with bearish engulfing -
warns of distribution
• Bearish: Price fails to break 98888.80 after 3+ attempts, forming
triple top - exit 50% position
• Bearish: 1d closes below 95375.20 (previous day close) with volume
>150k - bearish CHoCH forming
• Bearish: 4h breaks below 94413.40 (FVG top) with volume spike -
retest failed, exit remaining position
• Critical bearish: 4h closes below 92488.00 (entry trigger) -
immediate exit, structure compromised
• Scale 1 (40% position): TP1 at 107211.50 when price closes above
102509.10 on 4h - locks 16.3% gain from optimal entry
• Scale 2 (30% position): TP2 at 111959.50 when price closes above
107211.50 on 1d - locks 21.4% gain, total 37.7% realized
• Scale 3 (30% position): TP3 at 124545.60 or trail stop at -8% from
highest high after 111959.50 break - targets 35% final gain
• Alternative: If price consolidates at 107k-112k for >5 days,
consider taking 50% profit and trailing stop to 102509.10
• Risk management: Never let winner turn to loser - if price returns
to entry +5% after reaching TP1, close remaining 60% position
• Initial SL: 86355.00 (4h swing low) - risk 6.79% from optimal entry
at 92258.00
• After 98888.80 break: Move SL to breakeven (92258.00) - eliminates
risk, locks breakeven
• After 102509.10 break: Move SL to 94760.30 (4h BOS) - locks minimum
2.71% gain
• After TP1 (107211.50): Move SL to 99100.88 (4h cluster) - locks
7.42% on remaining 60%
• After TP2 (111959.50): Move SL to 105399.60 (4h bearish OB) - locks
14.25% on final 30%
• Trailing stop: After 111959.50, use 8% trailing stop from highest
high on remaining position
• 1w: Monitor weekly close - must stay above 90964.40 (recent low) to
maintain bullish structure. Close below 86760.00 invalidates entire
setup
• 1d: Check daily for bearish CHoCH - close below 95375.20 warns of
reversal. Bullish continuation needs daily closes above 96828.10
• 8h: Key timeframe for momentum - must see BOS above 97932.10 within
3-5 candles after entry for confirmation
• 4h: Primary management timeframe - all stop adjustments based on 4h
closes. Monitor for bearish CHoCH below 94760.30
• 1h: Use for entry timing only - look for bullish rejection wicks at
92258.00-94413.40 zone on 1h for precise entry
BNBUSDT M15 HTF Supply Reaction and Bearish Continuation Setup📝 Description
BNB has pushed into a short-term premium zone after a corrective bounce and is now showing hesitation below a 15-minute Fair Value Gap. The recent upside move lacks strong bullish continuation, and price is reacting from a supply-aligned area, increasing the probability of a downside rotation.
________________________________________
📉 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bearish below the 15m FVG and intraday highs
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 872.61
• Stop Loss: Above 874.33
• TP1: 870.90
• TP2: 868.10
• TP3: 864.90
________________________________________
🧠 ICT & SMC Notes
• Price reacting from 15m FVG in premium
• Weak bullish follow-through after mitigation
• Internal buy-side liquidity already tapped
• Downside targets aligned with BPR and lower imbalance zones
________________________________________
📌 Summary
As long as price remains capped below the 873–874 resistance area, the bearish continuation scenario remains favored. Current price action suggests a corrective pullback has likely completed, with expectations of a rotation toward lower liquidity pools.
________________________________________
🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
No strong bullish catalyst is currently present for BNB, and broader crypto sentiment remains vulnerable to short-term pullbacks. This environment supports mean-reversion and liquidity-driven downside moves rather than sustained upside continuation.
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Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
Watch out level 80 on RIVER !The uptrend appears increasingly extended after a prolonged impulsive move, with price trading far above the value area indicated by the volume profile.
Short-term price action shows slowing momentum and smaller candle bodies, suggesting buyer fatigue. Still, the structure remains technically valid as long as the 80 level holds as support. This zone aligns with a prior resistance-turned-support area and a visible low-volume gap, making it a key control point.
A firm defense could lead to consolidation before continuation higher.
However, a breakdown below 80 would likely trigger a deeper retracement, potentially rotating price back toward the 50 region.
AUDJPY: Your Plan to Buy 🇦🇺🇯🇵
AUDJPY is consolidating on a key daily horizontal support.
To buy with confirmation, wait for a bullish breakout of the underlined intraday
horizontal resistance.
An hourly candle close above 106.86 will confirm a violation.
A bullish movement will be expected to 107.36 level then.
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